Friday 29 April 2022

📕 Comment on Gold on April 29, 2022:

 📕 Comment on Gold on April 29, 2022:



 - In yesterday's trading session, after precious metal fell to 1871, Gold rallied strongly to 1896 ($25), closed the day session with a bull pusher and in the early morning of this day Gold continued to rise.  up to around 1905. With the current showing of good upward momentum, my view will be to prioritize the bullish option for this precious metal.

 - On the H4 time frame, bullish force also prevails and the nearest support area for this precious metal is around 1895-1898, Here we can establish a buy position with a safe target around the threshold.  1910-1915.

Crude Oil Futures: Rising bets for further upside

Open interest in crude oil futures markets went up for the third consecutive session on Thursday, now by nearly 19K contracts according to advance prints from CME Group. Volume followed suit and rose by 157.3K contracts, fading the previous day’s retracement.



WTI now targets April tops around $109.00

Prices of the WTI extended the weekly recovery on Thursday. The move was accompanied by rising open interest and volume, paving the way for the continuation of this bounce to, initially, the April high just above the $109.00 mark per barrel in the very near term.

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Thursday 28 April 2022

US: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fall to 180K vs. 180K expected

 



  • Weekly initial claims and continued claims were broadly in line with expectations according to the latest report. 
  • The US dollar weakened as a result of weak US GDP data and ignored the latest jobless claims figures. 

There were 180,000 initial claims in the US economy in the week ending on 23 April, in line with consensus estimates and a slight decline from last week's 185,000 reading which was revised up from 184,000, according to data released by the US Department of Labour on Thursday. That meant that the four-week average of initial claims rose to 179,750 from 177,500 a week prior. 

Continued claims in the week ending on 16 April saw a slight fall to 1.408M from 1.409M a week prior, a little above the expected drop to 1.403M. The insured unemployment rate thus came in at 1.0% in the week ending on 16 April, unchanged from a week earlier. 

Market Reaction

FX markets did not react to the latest broadly as expected jobless claims report but rather reacted to weak US growth numbers, with the US dollar weakening slightly. 

Nasdaq futures jump 2% after Meta earnings beat




Nasdaq 100 futures jumped more than 2% on Thursday as Meta Platforms shares soared after a stronger-than-expected profit, taking some pressure off growth and technology stocks that have been battered recently.

The Facebook-parent rose 17.7% in early New York trading after the social-networking site also eked out user growth.

Other megcap stocks such as Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc rose between 1.7% and 3.4%.

The Nasdaq Composite index is on course to post losses of over 10% in April, as investors dumped high-growth stocks on fears that rising interest rates will threaten future earnings and after Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) posted a shocking subscriber loss.

Apple, the world's most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon are set to report earnings after markets close on Thursday.

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) Inc jumped 8.4% after the chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue above analyst expectations.

At 05:05 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 390 points, or 1.17%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 76.75 points, or 1.84%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 328.25 points, or 2.52%.

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Wednesday 27 April 2022

USD/CHF pares intraday gains to fresh YTD peak, downside seems limited amid stronger USD

 


  • USD/CHF jumped to a fresh YTD peak on Wednesday amid the prevalent USD buying interest.
  • Bets for aggressive Fed rate hikes, a bleak global economic outlook continued boosting the USD.
  • The risk-on impulse could undermine the safe-haven CHF and supports prospects for further gains.

The USD/CHF pair retreated a few pips from its highest level since May 2020 touched during the first half of the European session and was last seen trading just below the mid-0.9600s.

The pair prolonged its recent strong bullish run witnessed since the beginning of this month and gained follow-through traction for the fifth successive day on Wednesday. The momentum was sponsored by sustained buying around the US dollar, which climbed to a more than two-year peak amid the prospects for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed.

Investors now expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 bps at each of its next four meetings in May, June, July and September. The bets were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish comments by influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This, along with the deteriorating global economic outlook, boosted the greenback's reserve currency status.

Expectations for rapid interest rate hikes in the US, prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and the latest COVID-19 outbreak in China have raised fears of stalling global growth. Investors now seem worried that Russia could follow through on its threat to halt gas flows to countries that refuse to pay for fuel in roubles and cut off supplies to Europe.

That said, extremely overbought conditions held back traders from placing fresh bullish bets and kept a lid on any further gains for the USD/CHF pair, at least for now. The intraday bias, however, remains tilted in favour of bulls amid the prevalent strong bullish sentiment surrounding the USD and the risk-on impulse, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc.

Market participants now look forward to second-tier US economic releases for some impetus later during the early North American session. The data, along with Fed rate hike expectations, would influence the USD price dynamics. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab some short-term opportunities around the USD/CHF pair.

European Stocks Lower; Russian Gas Move, Bank Earnings in Focus



European stock markets traded largely lower Wednesday, as investors digested ramped up geopolitical tensions, a troubled global growth outlook as well as mixed quarterly corporate earnings.

By 4:05 AM ET (0805 GMT), the DAX in Germany traded 0.3% lower, the CAC 40 in France fell 0.1%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.2%.

Tensions over the Russia-Ukraine conflict were heightened Wednesday after Gazprom, Russia's state-owned energy giant, confirmed that it has stopped supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. 

It's the first time that Russia has interrupted supplies to EU members in over 40 years of shipping natural gas, caused crude prices to rise and increased concerns about Europe’s energy security.

Russia is demanding payments for its gas in rubles as sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine bite, something that most western countries are not prepared to comply with as that could undermine the sanctions.

By 4:05 AM ET, U.S. crude futures traded 0.2% higher at $101.86 a barrel, while the Brent contract rose 0.2% to $104.84. Both benchmarks gained around 3% on Tuesday.

European equity indices have also been pressured by worries that China’s insistence on stringent COVID restrictions will harm domestic and global growth as well as the hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve potentially slowing growth at the world’s largest economy.

These factors resulted in consumer confidence in the euro area’s two biggest economies falling more than anticipated. In Germany, data dropped to an all-time low, while French figures declined to the lowest since 2018.

It’s a big day for earnings in Europe, with the banking sector once more to the fore.

Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) stock slumped 5.6% after the German lender warned that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could hurt full-year results, saying its funds set aside for credit losses are expected to increase "significantly" this year.

Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN) stock fell 1.6% after the Swiss bank posted a first-quarter loss along with another set of top management departures. 

By contrast, Lloyds (LON:LLOY) stock rose 2.4% after the U.K. lender lifted its full-year outlook with demand for mortgages holding up even as it warned of the dangers to the British economy from higher inflation. 

Elsewhere, GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) stock rose 0.7% after the pharmaceuticals giant beat expectations for its first-quarter results, helped by buoyant sales of its COVID-19 treatment.

Mercedes Benz Group (OTC:DDAIF) stock rose 1.4% after the carmaker confirmed its guidance for the full-year with high prices making up for supply chain troubles, Telia (ST:TELIA) stock advanced 1.1% after the Swedish telecoms operator posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings, and DSV (CSE:DSV) stock climbed 2.7% after the Danish transport company raised its 2022 outlook.

There were also significant earnings after Tuesday’s close on Wall Street, with Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) reporting first-quarter revenue below expectations, while software giant Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) forecast double-digit revenue growth for its next fiscal year.

There are more significant U.S. earnings releases Wednesday from companies such as Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:FB), T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS), and Boeing (NYSE:BA).

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Tuesday 26 April 2022

EUR/USD eyes 2020 lows at 1.0637 as USD regains poise

 

 The latest candle on the four-hour chart closed below 1.0700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the same chart stays near 40 and the descending line coming from April 21 stays intact, highlighting EUR/USD's bearish bias in the near term. 

It's worth noting that EUR/USD will touch its weakest level since April 2017 with a drop below 1.0635. Sellers might see such a move as a profit-taking opportunity and trigger a correction in the pair. In that case, 1.0700 (psychological level) aligns as the next recovery target before 1.0730 (static level) and 1.0760 (static level).

On the downside, a daily close below 1.0640 is likely to open the door for additional losses toward 1.0600 (psychological level) and 1.0570 (static level from March 2017).

Singapore: Inflation accelerated in March – UOB

UOB Group’s Economist Barnabas Gan reviews the latest inflation figures in Singapore.



Key Takeaways

“Singapore’s consumer prices rose at its fastest rate in a decade at 5.4% y/y (+1.2% m/m nsa) in Mar 2022. This is significantly faster compared to market expectations for a 4.7% y/y (+0.8% m/m nsa) print. Core inflation also accelerated to 2.9% y/y in the same month (Feb: +2.2% y/y).”


“Headline inflation has climbed for seven straight months, while core inflation stayed above the 2.0% handle for the fourth straight reading. In line with the recent MAS policy statement, authorities have upgraded their headline and core inflation forecast to 4.5 – 5.5% (from 2.5 – 3.5%) and 2.5% - 3.5% (from 2.0 – 3.0%) in 2022, respectively.”


“As discussed in our latest MAS policy and GDP report, we keep our headline inflation forecast to average 4.5%. Moreover, we expect core inflation to breach 3.0% for the rest of this year, and average 3.5% for the year.”


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Monday 25 April 2022

 EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Correction lower could extend to 134.30




  • EUR/JPY comes under pressure and approaches 137.00.
  • The April lows around 134.30 emerge as the next support of note.

EUR/JPY adds to Friday’s retracement and revisits the vicinity of the 137.00 mark at the beginning of the week.

Further weakness should not be ruled out in the very near term. That said, the corrective move in the cross could extend further and retest the monthly lows around 134.30.

In the meantime, while above the 200-day SMA at 130.56, the outlook for the cross is expected to remain constructive.

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📕 Comment on Gold on April 25, 2022:



 📕 Comment on Gold on April 25, 2022:


 - Ending the last trading week, precious metal Gold closed with a bearish candle with quite strong force around 1931 and in the early morning of today Gold continued to decline to around 1921, the price turned around.  exactly the same as the starting point of the rally 2 weeks ago.

 - Gold is currently in the support zone 1917-1920.  It is likely that Gold will recover slightly here after a fairly strong drop last week and in my opinion it is likely that Gold will recover to around the 1940 level here we need to wait and see a sell signal.  .  If Gold cannot recover and break through the 1917-1920 threshold, the possibility of this precious metal will slide down to 1900-1890.

Friday 22 April 2022

📕 Comment on Gold on April 22, 2022:



 📕 Comment on Gold on April 22, 2022:


 - After falling to 1935 in yesterday's session, precious metal Gold rebounded and closed the day's trading session with a bearish candle around the 1950 price. This is the 3rd day in a row that World Gold closes.  around this price.  In my personal opinion, the possibility that Gold in the beginning of today's trading session will still be supported around the 1940-1945 price zone.

 - On the H4 chart, we can clearly see the precious metal's withdrawal signal around the upper price range so we can consider buying with a safe target around 1960 in today's session.

 Dow Futures Fall 120 Pts; Earnings in Focus as Week Closes



U.S. stocks are seen opening marginally lower Friday, continuing the previous session’s selloff on fears of sharp monetary policy tightening while quarterly corporate earnings continue to emerge.


At 7 AM ET (1100 GMT), the Dow Futures contract was down 120 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 Futures traded 14 points, or 0.3%, lower and Nasdaq 100 Futures dropped 36 points, or 0.3%.


The three main Wall Street indices closed substantially lower Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offered up his most aggressive approach to taming inflation to date, largely cementing a 50-basis-point rate hike at the central bank’s May meeting.


The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed more than 300 points, or 1.1%, lower, the broad-based S&P 500 fell 1.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite suffered the most, dropping 2.1%.


Looking at the week as a whole, the Dow is on course to register a gain of 1%, which would break a three-week losing streak, the S&P 500 is largely flat, and the Nasdaq Composite is down 1.3%, which would be its third consecutive losing week.


Away from future Fed moves, investors are also focusing on the new earnings season. So far, with a few notable exceptions, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) springs to mind, big companies have been relatively positive on the outlook for the current quarter and the remainder of the year.


More results are due Friday, with the focus on the likes of wireless carrier Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), credit card company American Express (NYSE:AXP) and manufacturing conglomerate Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON).


After the close Thursday, social media platform Snap (NYSE:SNAP) warned that the high inflation could hit revenue growth even as it forecast second-quarter daily active users at between 343 million and 345 million, above Wall Street estimates of 340 million.


Clothes retailer Gap (NYSE:GPS) cut its forecast for quarterly sales, citing execution challenges at its Old Navy brand, adding the head of this brand, Nancy Green, was leaving the company.


The economic data slate centers around the release of business activity data for April, with the manufacturing PMI seen falling back slightly from the previous month’s 58.8, and the Markit composite PMI dropping from March’s 57.7.


The equivalent data saw a two-speed Eurozone, with the bloc's dominant services sector seeing a sharp increase in activity as consumers shrugged off soaring prices, while manufacturers struggled on the back of supply chain disruptions.


Oil prices weakened Friday, weighed by prospects of interest rate hikes and slowing global growth, while China, the world’s largest crude importer, continued to struggle with a COVID-19 outbreak.


The week ends with the release of U.S. oil rig numbers from Baker Hughes and CFTC speculative positioning data. 


By 7 AM ET, U.S. crude futures traded 1.5% lower at $102.21 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell 1.4% to $106.82. Both benchmarks are on course for weekly losses of over 4%.

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Thursday 21 April 2022

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to see a fresh bull trend only above the $2,070/75 highs – Credit Suisse

 

Gold maintains a slight upward bias in its broader sideways range. A break past the $2,070/75 highs would resolve the range higher for a fresh bull trend, strategists at Credit Suisse report.

Break below $1,877 to reassert the broad sideways range

“Gold above $1,877 can maintain an immediate upward bias in the broader sideways range.”

“Only above the $2,070/75 highs though would be seen to resolve the range higher for a fresh bull trend, with resistance then seen at $2,280/2,300.”

“A break below $1,877 can further reassert the broad sideways range with support then seen next at $1,845/31.”

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles near one-week low, below $1,950 ahead of Powell



  • Gold Price is back in the red, as sellers keep lurking just below $1,960.
  • An uptick in the US bond yields acted as a headwind for the commodity.
  • All eyes remain on Fed Chair Powell’s and US President Biden’s speech.

Gold struggled to capitalize on the previous day's modest rebound from over a one-week low and came under some renewed selling pressure on Thursday. The XAU/USD remained on the defensive through the early European session and was last seen trading just below the $1,950 level.

The mild recovery in the US Treasury yields on increased Fed’s hawkishness is acting as a headwind for spot prices. Gold could see further downside risks in the near term on rising bets for multiple 50 bps Fed rate hikes, which had sent the US 10-year real yields into the positive territory for the first time in two years.

Apart from this, the risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - weighed on traditional safe-haven assets, including gold. That said, the ongoing US dollar retracement slide from its highest level since March 2020 could lend some support to the dollar-denominated commodity.

The main event risk for Gold Price on Thursday remains Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Summit. His comments will hold the key, as they come just before the bank enters its "blackout" period.

Powell may fail to excite the dollar bulls and could emerge as a boon for Gold Price, as he may refrain from hinting at an aggressive tightening outlook after the US core inflation eased a bit in March.

The sentiment on global markets will be also closely followed for its impact on the safe-haven Gold amid uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine war, concerning inflation levels that threaten the economic recovery worldwide.

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Wednesday 20 April 2022

Oil rebounds as supply concerns dominate

Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday as a drop in U.S. oil inventories and concerns over tighter supplies from Russia and Libya drove a recovery from the previous session's sharp losses.

Brent crude futures rose $1.46, or 1.4%, to $108.71 a barrel by 1139 GMT.

The front-month WTI crude futures contract, which expires on Wednesday, rose $1.50, or 1.5%, to $104.06 while the second-month contract gained $1.52 to $103.57.

The two main benchmarks had fallen by 5.2% in volatile trading on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast global growth forecast by nearly a full percentage point, citing the economic impact of Russia's war in Ukraine and warning that inflation had become a "clear and present danger" for many countries.

"Weakening growth and mounting inflationary pressure can only mean one thing: the spectre of stagflation is hanging over the global economy," said P.M analyst Stephen Greenock.

Global oil prices have been pulled higher by a tighter supply outlook after sanctions against Russia - the world's second-largest oil exporter and a key European supplier - over its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation".

However, a softer global economic outlook and continuing COVID lockdowns in China have hurt demand in the world's top crude importer and are weighing on prices.

On the supply side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, produced 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) below its production target in March as Russian output began to decline after sanctions imposed by the West, a report from the producer alliance showed.

Various outages added to concerns about supply. OPEC member Libya has been forced to shut in 550,000 bpd of output because of a wave of blockades on major oilfields and export terminals, the country's National Oil Corporation said on Wednesday. [nL5N2WI2QZ]

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium's (CP) Black Sea terminal could return to full capacity as early as Wednesday, Kazak Energy Minister Bloat Akchulakov said. The CP pipeline and terminal, which ship about 80% of Kazak crude exports, have been working at half usual capacity after a storm damaged two of its three mooring points last month.

In the United States, crude stocks fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. [EA/IS]

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, will release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.

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📕 Comment on Gold on April 20, 2022:



📕 Comment on Gold on April 20, 2022:


 - In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold had one day of decline from 1981 to 1943 ($38), closing the day session with a strong bearish candle around 1949. Gold has returned.  back to the upper boundary of the previous sideways range.  With Gold approaching this support zone, I think it's likely that Gold will have a rebound in the early trading session today.

 - On the H4 chart, Gold may recover to around the threshold of 1950-1951 and is expected to rise around the threshold of 1962-1965.  Here, there is a high possibility that Gold will face selling pressure and drop again.

Tuesday 19 April 2022

EUR/USD unlikely to gain traction while below 1.0830

EUR/USD has staged a modest rebound to the 1.08 area. Unless the pair manages to clear the 1.0830 resistance, sellers are likely to continue to dominate the pair's action.

1.0760 aligns as key near-term support for the euro

“Investors will keep a close on US T-bond yields. In case the 10-year yield rises above 3%, EUR/USD could come under renewed bearish pressure.”

“In order to extend its rebound, EUR/USD needs to clear the static level that seems to have formed at 1.0830. Above that level, the 1.0850/1.0860 area (50-period SMA, static level) aligns as the next hurdle ahead of 1.09 (static level, psychological level).”

“On the downside, key support is located at 1.0760 (static level, post-ECB low). If that level turns into resistance, 1.0730 (April 24, 2020, low) and 1.07 (psychological level) could be seen as the next bearish targets.”

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Ukrainian Negotiator: Hard to say when next stage of direct peace talks will occur

 


Ukrainian Negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak told Reuters on Tuesday that events in Mariupol have made the negotiation process with Russia "even more complicated" and said that it is hard to say when the next direct peace talks will be possible. Russia is "seriously betting" on the second stage of its "special operation", he continued, adding that Russia aims to strengthen its negotiation position through its offensive in eastern Ukraine. 

Podolyak's remarks come after the unofficial start of the second phase of Russia's invasion of Ukraine began on Monday, with the country now focussing its attacking efforts in the east. Ukrainian officials on Monday said that Russian forces tried to break through their defenses along the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv fronts. 

Monday 18 April 2022

USD/CAD holds comfortably above 1.2600 mark amid broad-based USD strength



  • USD/CAD gained some positive traction on Monday, though lacked follow-through buying.
  • Retreating crude oil prices undermined the loonie and extended support amid a stronger USD.
  • The Fed’s hawkish outlook, elevated US bond yields, the risk-off mood all benefitted the buck.

The USD/CAD pair maintained its bid tone heading into the North American session and was last seen trading just a few pips below the daily high, around the 1.2630-1.2625 region.

A combination of factors assisted the USD/CAD pair to build on last week's goodish rebound from the 1.2520 area and gain traction for the third successive day on Monday. A modest pullback in crude oil prices weighed on the commodity-linked loonie and extended support to spot prices amid sustained US dollar buying interest.

Crude oil pulled back from the three-week high after data out of China pointed to economic weakness and fueled worries over slowing demand amid COVID-19 curbs. That said, concerns over tight global supply and a potential European Union (EU) embargo on Russian gas, helped limit the downside for the black liquid, at least for now.

On the other hand, the USD stood tall near the two-year high and continued drawing support from expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. Investors seem convinced that the Fed would hike rates at a faster pace to curb soaring inflation. This, along with elevated US Treasury bond yields, underpinned the buck.

Against the backdrop of the Fed's hawkish outlook, concerns that the worsening Ukraine crisis would put upward pressure on already high inflation pushed the US bond yields to a fresh multi-year peak. Apart from this, the risk-off mood - as depicted by a weaker tone around the equity markets - further benefitted the safe-haven greenback.

That said, relatively thin liquidity conditions on the back of a holiday in Europe held back bulls from placing aggressive bets. The USD/CAD pair, so far, has been struggling to find acceptance above the very important 200-day SMA, which, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move.

There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Monday, either from the US or Canada. Hence, the US bond yields, along with the broader market risk sentiment, will play a key role in influencing the USD demand. Traders will further take cues from oil price dynamics to grab some short-term opportunities.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD closes in on $2,000 amid Easter Monday thin trading

 

  • Gold Price remains poised to recapture $2,000 amid a flight to safety.
  • Elevated inflation, recession risks and the Russia-Ukraine war boost safe-haven appeal.
  • The speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will keep investors busy this week.

Easter Monday-induced thin market conditions are offering some extra zest to bulls, as Gold Price heads closer towards the $2,000 round level. The light trading seems to be exaggerating the moves in XAUUSD, as a 0.50% drop in the US stock futures reflects a risk-off market profile. Persistent Russian military actions in the Western Ukrainian city of Lviv and the Southern port city of Mariupol suggest that a peace agreement is nowhere in sight, fuelling anxiety. Meanwhile, the Ukraine crisis-led surging global inflation is prompting investors to seek refuge in the inflation-hedge Gold Price. Buyers ignore the notable strength in the US dollar alongside the Treasury yields, as a flight to safety makes the traditional store of value, gold, more appealing.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD needs to crack this level to take on the $2,000 mark

Moreover, China’s covid lockdowns and a potential European Union (EU) embargo on Russian gas could likely intensify inflation and growth concerns. This was seen as another factor that boosted the metal's appeal as a hedge against rising costs. Investors will now focus on the speech from the St. Louis Fed President and FOMC member James Bullard, which will provide insights into the likely monetary policy action by the Fed. However, the mega event will be the speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell due later this week.

“We are of the view that the Fed is broadly in-sync with the move toward the vicinity of neutral by the end of 2022, with Governor Brainard supporting that view recently. Chair Powell's remarks in an IMF panel on the global economy will get the focus of the attention,” analysts at TD Securities explained. “While the Fed is signalling its intent to reach neutrality by year-end, and to start an aggressive QT regime, outflows from gold markets have been scarce as participants are happy to retain some optionality against the Fed's stated plan amid growth concerns,” the analysts added.

Gold Technical Analysis

The bulls are in control and taking on fresh highs. On a daily scale, XAU/USD has tested the breakout of its previous critical level at March 24 high $1,966.18 multiple times. The 20- and 50-Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are scaling higher, adding to the upside filters. The momentum oscillator Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has overstepped 60.00, which indicates a firmer bullish momentum going forward.

Friday 15 April 2022

Russian companies, banks could reap windfall from depositary receipt delisting


Russian companies and global banks including BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK), Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn), Citigroup (NYSE:C) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) could profit if Moscow moves to de-list Russian companies' depositary receipts from foreign exchanges, according to two people familiar with the matter.


The potential windfall is due to the fees that bank issuers of depositary receipts can contractually charge investors when they cancel the product.


It is unclear how much companies and banks could make or if banks will charge the fees and risk angering investors who say it would be unfair given the extraordinary circumstances which have been triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.


However, the fees could potentially translate into hundreds of millions of dollars according to Reuters' calculations based on fee data provided by the sources.


Assailed by Western sanctions, Moscow is preparing to de-list Russian company depositary receipts from foreign exchanges and convert them into local Russian securities in a bid to reduce foreigners' control over these companies.


Depositary receipts are certificates issued by a bank representing shares in a foreign company traded on a local stock exchange. They allow investors to dabble in overseas stocks in their own geography and time zone.


There are more than 30 depositary receipts on Russian companies including Gazprom (MCX:GAZP), Rosneft, Lukoil and Norilsk Nickel issued by BNY Mellon, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, JPMorgan, among others, trading on U.S. and European markets.


Under standard agreements, depositary receipts can be canceled by the issuer or the investor. When that happens, the investor typically gets cash from the sale of the underlying shares, although they have the right to take custody of the shares instead.


Banks charge an administration fee, typically around $0.05 per receipt, which may be shared with the companies, two sources said.


If Moscow de-lists Russian depositary receipts, banks will have to cancel the products. Banks could still charge the fees, even though their hand was forced, according to three sources.


For example, an investor in Rosneft with 150 million depositary receipts representing the same number of shares in the company could be on the hook for $7.5 million in cancellation fees, according to Reuters' calculations.


Sweeping Western sanctions could make it challenging for banks to transfer the cash to some companies.


Regardless, some investors say the fees should not apply. One global asset manager told Reuters that if Russia passes the de-listing law there should be no fees as investors would have no choice in the matter. The other two sources, however, say banks still have to cover their costs.


BNY Mellon, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan and Citigroup declined to comment. Russian companies did not respond to a Reuters emails seeking comment.


MARKET FREEZE


As Western sanctions pummeled Russian stocks from late February, the Moscow exchange closed and the Russian central bank banned foreigners from transferring shares out of their custody accounts. It also barred foreigners from selling Russian shares.


The restrictions made it nearly impossible for banks to cancel receipts when asked by investors anxious to slash their Russia exposure.


With curbs on custodians recently lifted, BNY Mellon, Citi and JPMorgan have resumed processing cancellations. But because the foreign banks still can't sell the shares, investors have to take custody of them instead. To do that, investors need an account in Russia, which many don't have.


As a result, a lot of investors are likely to hold onto the receipts for the time being, according to three people.


Many investors are worried, however, about the de-listing bill which Russia is preparing.


Aside from the potential cancellation fees, investors are worried about what will happen if they can't open a local custody account.


In a note to clients, JPMorgan said clients may be able to open a Russian account under some unspecified circumstances if the new law is passed.


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Thursday 14 April 2022

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Extra pullbacks seen below 1.0800

 


  • EUR/USD fades the initial move north of 1.0900.
  • Recent lows around 1.0800 emerge as the next contention area.

EUR/USD fades the pre-ECB uptick to the 1.0920 zone on Thursday.

In light of the ongoing price action, extra losses in the pair remain in the pipeline in the short-term horizon. Against that, a break below the so far monthly low at 1.0808 (April 14 should pave the way for a quick visit to the 2022 low at 1.0805 (March 7) before the May 2020 low at 1.0766 (May 7).

While below the 200-day SMA, today at 1.1440, the outlook for the pair is expected to remain negative

Breaking: ECB leaves rates unchanged at -0.50% as expected, reiterates QE to end in Q3


The European Central Bank left its benchmark deposit rate unchanged at -0.50% on Thursday as unanimously expected by analysts. The central bank also reiterated its guidance that net asset purchases (Quantitative Easing or QE) should end in Q3. 

ECB Statement:

"Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is causing enormous suffering.

It is also affecting the economy, in Europe and beyond.

The conflict and the associated uncertainty are weighing heavily on the confidence of businesses and consumers.

Trade disruptions are leading to new shortages of materials and inputs.

Surging energy and commodity prices are reducing demand and holding back production.

How the economy develops will crucially depend on how the conflict evolves, on the impact of current sanctions and on possible further measures.

At the same time, economic activity is still being supported by the reopening of the economy after the crisis phase of the pandemic.

Inflation has increased significantly and will remain high over the coming months, mainly because of the sharp rise in energy costs.

Inflation pressures have intensified across many sectors.

At today’s meeting the Governing Council judged that the incoming data since its last meeting reinforce its expectation that net asset purchases under its asset purchase programme should be concluded in the third quarter.

Looking ahead, the ECB’s monetary policy will depend on the incoming data and the Governing Council’s evolving assessment of the outlook.

In the current conditions of high uncertainty, the Governing Council will maintain optionality, gradualism and flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy.

The Governing Council will take whatever action is needed to fulfil the ECB’s mandate to pursue price stability and to contribute to safeguarding financial stability.

Asset purchase programme (APP)

Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June.

The calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect the Governing Council’s evolving assessment of the outlook.

The Governing Council also intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively.

Any adjustments to the key ECB interest rates will take place some time after the end of the Governing Council’s net purchases under the APP and will be gradual.

The path for the key ECB interest rates will continue to be determined by the Governing Council’s forward guidance and by its strategic commitment to stabilise inflation at 2% over the medium term.

Accordingly, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term.

Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP until at least the end of 2024.

In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

In the event of renewed market fragmentation related to the pandemic, PEPP reinvestments can be adjusted flexibly across time, asset classes and jurisdictions at any time.

This could include purchasing bonds issued by the Hellenic Republic over and above rollovers of redemptions in order to avoid an interruption of purchases in that jurisdiction, which could impair the transmission of monetary policy to the Greek economy while it is still recovering from the fallout from the pandemic.

Net purchases under the PEPP could also be resumed, if necessary, to counter negative shocks related to the pandemic.

Refinancing operations

The Governing Council will continue to monitor bank funding conditions and ensure that the maturing of operations under the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) does not hamper the smooth transmission of its monetary policy.

The Governing Council will also regularly assess how targeted lending operations are contributing to its monetary policy stance.

As announced, it expects the special conditions applicable under TLTRO III to end in June this year.

The Governing Council will also assess the appropriate calibration of its two-tier system for reserve remuneration so that the negative interest rate policy does not limit banks’ intermediation capacity in an environment of ample excess liquidity.

The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate, incorporating flexibility if warranted, to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term.

The pandemic has shown that, under stressed conditions, flexibility in the design and conduct of asset purchases has helped to counter the impaired transmission of monetary policy and made the Governing Council’s efforts to achieve its goal more effective.

Within the Governing Council’s mandate, under stressed conditions, flexibility will remain an element of monetary policy whenever threats to monetary policy transmission jeopardise the attainment of price stability.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today."

Market Reaction

The euro saw a substantial drop in reaction to the latest ECB policy announcement. EUR/USD has dipped to around the 1.0875 area from around 1.0915 prior to the release and now trades with on the day losses of around 0.1% versus earlier gains of around 0.3%.  

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