Stronger USD heading into year-end amid higher terminal rate expectations – MUFG

The US Dollar has continued to trade at stronger levels after the Fed dashed hopes again for a dovish policy pivot. Higher terminal rate expectations for Fed's hiking cycle are set to continue strengthening the greenback into year-end, economists at MUFG Bank report.

The Fed is shifting to plans for a slower but more extended hiking cycle

“The US rate market is now pricing in 62 bps of hikes at the December FOMC meeting as it weighs up whether the Fed will deliver one final 75 bps hike or step down to a 50 bps hike.” 

“The updated policy statement added as well that the Fed would take into account ‘the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments’.”

“The comments signal that the Fed is shifting to plans for a slower but more extended hiking cycle. The increase in market expectations for the Fed’s terminal policy rate support our outlook for an even stronger US dollar heading into year-end.” 

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US Dollar Index retreats from cycle highs near 110.00 ahead of Payrolls

The index comes under pressure and recedes from 110.00.

The risk complex regains some composure and trims recent losses.

All the attention remains on the August’s Nonfarm Payrolls due later.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), gives away part of the recent advance to fresh cycle highs in the 110.00 region (September 1).

US Dollar Index looks to key data

The index now comes under pressure and sheds some ground following Thursday’s advance to levels last seen back in June 2002 in the 110.00 neighbourhood.

The recent strong climb in the dollar has been underpinned by the equally intense move higher in US yields, particularly in the short end of the curve, which was at the same underpinned by persistent expectations of the continuation of the normalization process by the Federal Reserve.

On the latter, the probability of a 75 bps rate raise at the September event is now at nearly 75% as per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Still looking at the next Fed’s rate hike, Friday’s focus of attention is expected to remain on the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of August due later in the NA session. Consensus expects the economy to have added 300K jobs during last month and the jobless rate to stay unchanged at 3.5%.

Additional data will also see Factory Orders for the month of July.

What to look for around USD

Despite the ongoing knee-jerk, the greenback keeps the bullish outlook well in place in the area of 20-year highs near the 110.00 zone.

Bolstering the dollar’s strength appears the firm conviction of the Federal Reserve to keep hiking rates until inflation looks well under control regardless of a likely slowdown in the economic activity and some loss of momentum in the labour market. This view was recently reinforced by Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Extra volatility in the dollar, however, should not be ruled out considering the ongoing debate around the size of the September’s interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Looking at the more macro scenario, the greenback appears propped up by the Fed’s divergence vs. most of its G10 peers (especially the ECB) in combination with bouts of geopolitical effervescence and occasional re-emergence of risk aversion.

Key events in the US this week: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Factory Orders (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Hard/soft/softish? landing of the US economy. Prospects for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve vs. speculation over a recession in the next months. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China persistent trade conflict.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

Now, the index is retreating 0.18% at 109.43 and faces the next support at 107.58 (weekly low August 26) seconded by 106.69 (55-day SMA) and then 104.63 (monthly low August 10). On the upside, a breakout of 109.97 (2022 high September 1) would aim for 110.00 (round level) and finally 112.17 (high May 31 2002).

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U.S. Futures Rise as Amazon, Apple Shares Surge Before Market Open

U.S. stock markets are set to open higher Friday, set to end the week on a positive note on the back of strong earnings from tech giants Amazon and Apple.

By 6:46 AM ET (1046 GMT), Dow Jones futures were up 109 points or 0.34%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.77%, and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 1.17%.

The main indices are on course for a second positive week in a row, with generally strong corporate earnings holding sway even after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by a further 75 basis points and GDP contracted for the second quarter in a row.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is 2% higher so far this week, while the broad-based S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite have both gained 2.8%.

Highlighting the session today will be earnings from the Big Tech sector, with both Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) surpassing expectations with their quarterly results released after the close on Thursday.

Shares in Amazon zoomed higher by more than 12% in premarket trade, thanks to a revised outlook from the company that offset slower net sales growth compared to the same period last year. Amazon now expects a jump in third quarter revenue, citing bigger fees from Prime loyalty subscriptions and resilient consumer demand.

Apple also forecasted strong demand for its flagship iPhone product despite consumers tightening other spending as economic growth slows. The firm also declined to give specific revenue guidance due to economic uncertainty but said annual sales should rise faster in the current quarter than the 2% growth it posted in the just-ended last three months.

Shares in Apple edged into the green by 2.28% in premarket trading.

A fresh batch of European data also helped ease some risk sentiment. The 19-nation Eurozone grew surprisingly strongly in the second quarter, defying expectations of a slowdown and the previous day’s weak U.S. release. Healthy performances in Spain, France, and Italy helped offset stalling growth in Europe's biggest economy, Germany.

However, inflation - which has weighed heavily on business and consumer activity in the region - came in at a new record high of 8.9% compared to the prior year, up from 8.6% in June. Analysts had been anticipating the number to stay at that prior level.

Concerns still remain that the Eurozone will tip into a recession either late this year or early next year despite the strong second quarter.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices moved up on Friday, helped by supply concerns ahead of next week’s meeting of a group of top producers even amid fears of a global recession.

By 7:08 AM EST (1108 GMT), U.S. crude futures were up 2.33% at $98.67 a barrel, while Brent crude was up 2.21% at $104.08 a barrel.

Additionally, gold futures popped slightly to $1,759.40/oz, while the EUR/USD was trading at $1.0225.

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Dow Futures Up 160 Pts; Jobless Claims in Focus

U.S. stocks are seen posting modest gains later Thursday, with investors focusing their attention on reports on initial jobless claims and private sector hiring ahead of Friday’s government nonfarm payrolls report for May.

At 6:50 AM ET (1050 GMT), the Dow futures contract was up 162 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.4% while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 81 points, or 0.6%.

The gains came after Wall Street's three major indexes closed lower on Wednesday amid concerns that the Federal Reserve will stick to its aggressive rate hike cycle aimed at curbing soaring inflation.

The Dow ended down 176.89 points, or 0.5%, on Wednesday. The S&P 500 was off around 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.7%.

The Labor Department is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET. ADP will release data on private sector hiring at 8:15 AM ET.

The employment data is coming ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for May with economists expecting the economy to have added 325,000 jobs last month. While still solid, it would represent the slowest jobs growth in around a year with the labor market transitioning to more moderate growth as the effects of the pandemic ebb.

Data on Wednesday showed that U.S. job openings fell in April, but remained at high levels, suggesting that wages would continue to rise, contributing to already high inflation.

Investors are closely watching economic data for clues as to what it might mean for interest rates and Friday’s employment report could set the tone for markets this month after a tumultuous month of May.

In corporate news, shares in online pet product retailer Chewy (NYSE:CHWY) surged around 17% ahead of the open after its quarterly earnings results late Wednesday came in ahead of expectations.

Shares in Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) were lower after it reported slight misses in both earnings and revenue, after the bell on Wednesday.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:FB) stock was also in focus after Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg announced in a Facebook post late Wednesday that she is leaving the company after 14 years.

The announcement initially sent Meta's shares down 4%, but the stock erased the losses in after-hours trade.

Earnings from big tech names Crowdstrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD) and Asana (NYSE:ASAN) are due after the close, along with results from retailers Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU), Designer Brands (NYSE:DBI) and RH (NYSE:RH).

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Nasdaq futures jump 2% after Meta earnings beat

Nasdaq 100 futures jumped more than 2% on Thursday as Meta Platforms shares soared after a stronger-than-expected profit, taking some pressure off growth and technology stocks that have been battered recently.

The Facebook-parent rose 17.7% in early New York trading after the social-networking site also eked out user growth.

Other megcap stocks such as Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc rose between 1.7% and 3.4%.

The Nasdaq Composite index is on course to post losses of over 10% in April, as investors dumped high-growth stocks on fears that rising interest rates will threaten future earnings and after Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) posted a shocking subscriber loss.

Apple, the world's most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon are set to report earnings after markets close on Thursday.

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) Inc jumped 8.4% after the chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue above analyst expectations.

At 05:05 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 390 points, or 1.17%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 76.75 points, or 1.84%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 328.25 points, or 2.52%.

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 Dow Futures Fall 120 Pts; Earnings in Focus as Week Closes

U.S. stocks are seen opening marginally lower Friday, continuing the previous session’s selloff on fears of sharp monetary policy tightening while quarterly corporate earnings continue to emerge.

At 7 AM ET (1100 GMT), the Dow Futures contract was down 120 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 Futures traded 14 points, or 0.3%, lower and Nasdaq 100 Futures dropped 36 points, or 0.3%.

The three main Wall Street indices closed substantially lower Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offered up his most aggressive approach to taming inflation to date, largely cementing a 50-basis-point rate hike at the central bank’s May meeting.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed more than 300 points, or 1.1%, lower, the broad-based S&P 500 fell 1.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite suffered the most, dropping 2.1%.

Looking at the week as a whole, the Dow is on course to register a gain of 1%, which would break a three-week losing streak, the S&P 500 is largely flat, and the Nasdaq Composite is down 1.3%, which would be its third consecutive losing week.

Away from future Fed moves, investors are also focusing on the new earnings season. So far, with a few notable exceptions, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) springs to mind, big companies have been relatively positive on the outlook for the current quarter and the remainder of the year.

More results are due Friday, with the focus on the likes of wireless carrier Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), credit card company American Express (NYSE:AXP) and manufacturing conglomerate Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON).

After the close Thursday, social media platform Snap (NYSE:SNAP) warned that the high inflation could hit revenue growth even as it forecast second-quarter daily active users at between 343 million and 345 million, above Wall Street estimates of 340 million.

Clothes retailer Gap (NYSE:GPS) cut its forecast for quarterly sales, citing execution challenges at its Old Navy brand, adding the head of this brand, Nancy Green, was leaving the company.

The economic data slate centers around the release of business activity data for April, with the manufacturing PMI seen falling back slightly from the previous month’s 58.8, and the Markit composite PMI dropping from March’s 57.7.

The equivalent data saw a two-speed Eurozone, with the bloc's dominant services sector seeing a sharp increase in activity as consumers shrugged off soaring prices, while manufacturers struggled on the back of supply chain disruptions.

Oil prices weakened Friday, weighed by prospects of interest rate hikes and slowing global growth, while China, the world’s largest crude importer, continued to struggle with a COVID-19 outbreak.

The week ends with the release of U.S. oil rig numbers from Baker Hughes and CFTC speculative positioning data. 

By 7 AM ET, U.S. crude futures traded 1.5% lower at $102.21 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell 1.4% to $106.82. Both benchmarks are on course for weekly losses of over 4%.

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