Tuesday 31 May 2022

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD wavers in range around $1,850, levels to watch

Gold Price is struggling around the $1,850 area amid risk-off markets.

Record high inflation rate in the Euro area re-ignites growth concerns.

USD holds the bounce with yields, XAUUSD’s range play likely to extend.

Gold Price is adding to the previous losses while keeping its range around the $1,850 psychological level. The precious metal feels the heat from a broad US dollar rebound amid a sharp upturn in the Treasury yields. Markets remain in a risk-off mode, underpinning the dollar’s haven demand. The ongoing upsurge in oil prices and record-high inflation in the Euro area have re-ignited global growth worries, as central banks remain on a tightening spree. Against this backdrop, gold price is finding some comfort, limiting its move lower. Traders now look forward to the US Nonfarm payrolls release for a fresh direction in XAUUSD.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluences Detector shows that the Gold Price is gyrating around the $1,851 critical barrier, which is now acting as strong support. That price is the convergence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, SMA50 four-hour and the pivot point one-day S1.

If that breaks then the next safety net appears at the pivot point one-day S2 at $1,848.

Further south, the pivot point one-month S1 at $1,846 will challenge the bullish commitments.

The last line of defense for gold bulls is seen at $1,841, the confluence of the SMA200 one-day, the previous week’s low and the pivot point one-week S3.

On the upside, bulls need a firm break above the $1,856 supply zone, where the SMA5 one-day, Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and the previous high four-hour collide.

The next bullish target is aligned at $1,859, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and one-week.

The Fibonacci 23.6% one-week at $1,863 will guard the additional upside, opening doors for a test of the previous week’s high of $1,870.

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Comment on Gold on May 31, 2022:

 📕 Comment on Gold on May 31, 2022:




 - Currently, precious metal Gold does not have too much volatility, moving sideways in the range of 1845-1863.  Closing yesterday's session Gold ended with a green candle around 1855. This candle hasn't reflected much but we can see that the downward pressure is quite weak and the uptrend is still preferred.

 - My personal opinion will wait to buy when Gold has 1 more downtrend.  The expected price area to be able to establish a buy position is around 1835-1840.  If in today's session, gold has a downward beat, this is an ideal price area for us to establish a buy position with a safe target around 1855.

Monday 30 May 2022

Comment on Gold on May 30, 2022:





 📕 Comment on Gold on May 30, 2022:


 - Last trading week, precious metal Gold did not have much change when it increased sharply to 1867 in the first session of the week and then corrected down in the following days.  Closing the weekly candle with a bullish candle and the downward correction was not too much so my personal opinion is still to prioritize the bullish option of Gold at the beginning of this week's trading session.

 - On the shorter-term timeframe H4 we can see a relatively good support area for Gold around 1845-1848.  This is also the area where the Gold price reacts to bounce back when it drops here.  Investors can refer to Buy when the price drops around the upper support level with a small safe target below 1867.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Near-term upside bias unchanged above 134.65



EUR/JPY adds to recent gains and trespasses the 137.00 hurdle.

While above the 2-month support line, further gains are likely.

EUR/JPY extends the march north for the third session in a row beyond the 137.00 barrier at the beginning of the week.


The cross surpassed the 136.80 region and in doing so it opened the door to extra gains to, initially, the May high at 138.31 (May 9) prior to the 2022 high at 140.00 (April 21).


In the meantime, while above the 2-month support line around 134.65, the short-term outlook for the cross should remain bullish.

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Friday 27 May 2022

GBP/USD holds near one-month highs in 1.2600s pre-US Core PCE data release


GBP/USD has pared back from earlier highs but remains in the green and supported above 1.2600 pre-US Core PCE data.

The pair was nonetheless able to hit monthly highs earlier in the day, with some citing UK fiscal stimulus optimism.

Though the pair has now handed back most of the gains it made during the Asia Pacific session, GBP/USD continues to trade slightly in the green and supported to the north of the 1.2600 level on Friday. FX market conditions have been fairly subdued in recent hours ahead of the release of key US Core PCE inflation data for April that, if it shows an easing of price pressures, could contribute to a continuation of recent USD weakening if it contributes to the “inflation has peaked” narrative and thus triggers a further paring back on Fed tightening bets.


Indeed, USD weakness (the DXY is on course for a second successive weekly loss, the worst losing streak since December 2021) has been the key driver behind cable’s more than 3.5% rally from earlier monthly lows in the mid-1.2100s to fresh monthly highs this Friday. But analysts have also attributed a few domestic UK factors as lending support to the rebound. Firstly, last week’s UK labour market data was strong, while the April inflation figures showed price pressures at their worst in four decades, giving a marginal boost to BoE tightening bets at the time.

Meanwhile, the UK government surprised markets on Thursday with a new, larger than expected fiscal aid package of £15 billion, aimed at helping low-income households cope with the current cost-of-living squeeze. Some analysts said that this larger than expected injection of fiscal stimulus (which will be spread over the summer and autumn) might encourage the BoE to revise higher its very pessimistic UK growth forecasts for this year and next.


A less pessimistic growth outlook means that the BoE might feel more confident that it can get away with slightly more monetary tightening in order to ensure inflation expectations don’t de-anchor. Still, FX strategists continue to warn that the UK growth outlook remains far weaker than in the US, meaning the outlook for BoE policy is far less hawkish than the outlook at the Fed. That mean, in the medium-longer term, a sustained rebound for GBP/USD doesn’t look likely. If Brexit tensions surrounding the Northern Ireland Protocol further worsen, that only could the pair’s outlook.

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Comment on Gold on May 27, 2022:



 📕 Comment on Gold on May 27, 2022:


 - After testing the price zone "1841" once again, precious metal Gold rebounded, closing yesterday's session around 1850. Looking at the daily candles of the last 2 trading sessions, we have  It can be seen that Gold always shows a good buying force when touching the support price area of ​​1841, represented by 2 candles that have dropped but retreated a lot.  Therefore, my personal opinion has not changed from yesterday, which is to continue to prioritize buying with this precious metal.

 - On the H4 chart, Gold is currently facing a "slight resistance" around 1855. If ace bought in at a low price, it can liquidate part of the order and continue to consider buying when Gold drops slightly.  The safe profit taking target for this rally is.  below the threshold of 1867.

Thursday 26 May 2022

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Further gains seen above 136.80

EUR/JPY alternates gains with losses in the sub-136.00 area.

Further consolidation looks likely in the near term.

EUR/JPY trades in a volatile fashion after climbing as high as the 136.50 region earlier on Thursday.



Extra range bound appears on the cards for the cross in the short-term horizon, while gains could accelerate on a break above recent peaks in the 136.80 region. Beyond the latter, the next target of note comes at the May high at 138.31 (May 9).


In the meantime, while above the 200-day SMA at 131.32, the outlook for the cross is expected to remain constructive.

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EUR/USD hovers around 1.0700 amid subdued DXY, US GDP eyed

 EUR/USD is hovering around 1.0700 and is expected to establish above the same amid a broadly subdued US dollar index (DXY). EUR bulls are swiftly scaling higher after the less hawkish Fed minutes downed the US dollar. Focus on US GDP and PCE inflation. 

EUR/USD pares intraday gains around 1.0700 while stepping back from an immediate resistance line. In doing so, the major currency pair reverses the previous day’s pullback from the monthly high during Thursday’s Asian session.







Although a downward sloping trend line from Tuesday restricts the nearby EUR/USD upside around 1.0710, the quote’s ability to stay firmer past the 100-HMA and the 200-HMA keeps the buyers hopeful of overcoming the nearby hurdle.

Also favoring the upside bias is a one-week-old ascending trend line and the bullish MACD signals, not to forget firmer RSI (14).

Bolstered rate hike expectations by the European Central Bank (ECB) have underpinned the euro against the greenback. Inflation is affecting the real income of the households in the eurozone and the ECB has yet not paddled up its interest rates unlike the other Western leaders, which are featuring 50 basis points (bps) rate hikes. The eurozone inflation has reached 7.5% and the ECB needs to tighten its sleeves and announce quantitative restrictions.

Meanwhile, Dutch Central Bank head and ECB Governing Council member Klass Knot stated on Wednesday that inflation expectations will remain well-anchored at its upper limit and a rate hike by 50 bps is not off the table.

On the dollar front, the DXY is underperforming broadly despite the release of the extremely hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. As per the minutes, all Fed policymakers were in favor of a jumbo rate hike announcement. Also, they believe that the benchmark rates should be sent close to the neutral rates quickly. Inflation will remain anchored at elevated levels and the labor market is extremely tight.

Going forward, investors will respond to the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) numbers. The US GDP is seen unchanged at -1.4% on annual basis. Also, the US PCE is expected to remain stable at 7%.

Wednesday 18 May 2022

Pound falls as UK inflation hits 40 year high

The pound fell against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed British inflation rising to 9%, the highest level in 40 years.



At 0846 GMT, sterling was down 0.9% against the U.S. dollar at $1.23820.


The drop reverses most of the gains made on Tuesday when the pound touched its highest level since May 5.


Strong labour market data had boosted expectations that the Bank of England would have to further increase interest rates, but the latest inflation numbers are fuelling fears that the threat of recession may temper how far the central bank can go.


"Yesterday it looked like with wage growth rising and unemployment so low it meant that the bank had more room for manoeuvre," said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown (LON:HRGV).

"Now the eye wateringly high costs for consumers is going to lead to dropping consumer spending power which will have a deep impact on output in the UK economy."


Consumer price inflation hit 9% in April, making Britain's inflation rate the highest of Europe's five biggest economies and almost certainly the Group of Seven countries, with Canada and Japan yet to report figures for April. Neither are likely to match Britain's price growth.


“Of course the bank doesn’t want to be so aggressive that it pushes the UK into a deep downturn, but it knows it needs to pull some levers to try to keep a lid on inflation," said Streeter.


The fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to act more aggressively on its interest rate hikes is also making the dollar more attractive, Streeter said, further adding to the pound's weakness as traders flee riskier assets.


Against the euro, the pound was up 0.7% at 84.08 pence.


British foreign secretary Liz Truss said on Tuesday she intended to introduce legislation in the coming weeks to make changes to the Northern Ireland protocol, which was part of the Brexit divorce deal.


According to a note from ING strategists, Brexit-related risks around changes to Northern Ireland protocol and the potential for a trade war with the EU is a major downside risk for the pound, which they expect to trade at mostly below $1.23820 versus the dollar during the summer.

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Tuesday 17 May 2022

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to fall further towards $1,691/77 – Credit Suisse


Gold tested $1,800 on Monday but managed to reverse its direction. Economists at Credit Suisse expect the yellow metal to suffer additional losses towards the $1,691/77 zone.


Gold/Silver ratio holding a major base to reinforce the likelihood gold still outperforms

“Gold has broken support from its uptrend from last August and 200-day average at $1,838/28 to warn of a retest of pivotal long-term support from the lower end of the two-year range at $1,691/77. Only below here though would see an important top established here also.”


“The Gold/Silver ratio has completed a major base to suggest that gold should continue to outperform silver and even though gold can weaken on an outright basis, it is still more likely weakness within the broader range for now.”

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EUR/USD extends ECB-inspired rally to mid-1.0500s



 EUR/USD has extended its daily rally and reached its highest level in nearly a week above 1.0550. Hawkish comments from ECB policymaker Klaas Knot and the broad-based dollar weakness in the risk-positive environment continue to fuel the pair's upside as focus shifts to US data.

 The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart stays below 70 while holding above 50, suggesting that the pair has more room on the upside before turning technically overbought. 

On the upside, 1.0480 (50-period SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest decline) aligns as initial resistance. In case this level turns into support, 1.0500 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.0530 (100-period SMA) could be seen as the next recovery targets.

Supports are located at 1.0450 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), 1.0420 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.0400 (psychological level).

Monday 16 May 2022

Russia's Putin: Will react to expansion of military infrastructure in Finland, Sweden



 Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that the expansion of NATO is a problem and it is in the interests of the USA, reported Reuters. Russia has no problems with Finland and Sweden, he continued, but Russia will react to the expansion of military infrastructure in these countries. Putin added that Russia needs to pay additional attention to NATO plans to increase its global influence. 

Finland and Sweden both announced their commitment to applying for NATO membership over the weekend and most NATO nations have come out in support. 

AUD/USD keeps the red near 0.6900 mark, downside seems cushioned amid softer USD




Disappointing Chinese macro data prompted fresh selling around AUD/USD on Monday.
A softer risk tone was seen as another factor that undermined the perceived riskier aussie.
Sliding US bond yields kept the USD bulls on the defensive and helped limit deeper losses.
The AUD/USD pair remained on the defensive through the first half of the European session and was last seen trading with modest intraday losses, around the 0.6900 round-figure mark.

Following an early uptick to the 0.6960 area, the AUD/USD pair met with a fresh supply and touched an intraday low around the 0.6890 region in reaction to shockingly weaker Chinese macro releases. The data underscored the damage caused by COVID-19 lockdowns in the world's second-largest economy and weighed on the China-proxy Australian dollar.

Apart from China's zero-COVID-19 policy, the war in Ukraine has been fueling concerns about softening economic growth amid the prospects for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. This, in turn, tempered investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets, which was evident from a softer tone around the equity markets and further undermined aussie.

The anti-risk flow dragged the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond further away from the recent peak of 3.20%. This, in turn, kept the US dollar bulls on the defensive and extended some support to the AUD/USD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of the bearish trend witnessed over the past one month or so.

Market participants now look forward to the release of the US Empire State Manufacturing Index for a fresh impetus later during the early North American session. The data, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD price dynamics. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment for short-term opportunities around the AUD/USD pair.

The focus would then shift to the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday. This will be followed by the US Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures. Apart from this, remarks by several FOMC officials, including the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will be looked upon for clues about the possibility of a 75 bps rate hike move, which will drive the USD demand and determine the near-term trajectory for the AUD/USD pair.

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Friday 13 May 2022

US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Rising bets for extra gains

DXY looks to challenge Thursday’s highs near 105.00.

Further upside should target the 105.60/65 region.

DXY keeps the bullish bias well in place north of the 104.00 hurdle at the end of the week.



Considering the ongoing price action, further gains in the index remains well on the cards and with the immediate hurdle at the round level at 105.00 ahead of 105.63 (December 11 2002 high). Further up, the index is expected to challenge the December 2002 high at 107.31.


The current bullish stance in the index remains supported by the 8-month line around 97.00, while the longer-term outlook for the dollar is seen constructive while above the 200-day SMA at 96.28.

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Wednesday 11 May 2022

Gold Price Forecast - XAUUSD rebounds towards $1,850 as DXY eases ahead of US inflation

Gold price manages to consolidate losses at three-month low ahead of the key US inflation data.

Mixed sentiment, DXY pullback recall buyers but Fedspeak, growth fears weigh on prices.

12-day-old megaphone formation, weekly resistance line also keep sellers hopeful even as softer US CPI can extend price recovery.

Gold Price is looking to extend its recovery from three-month lows of $1,836 in the European session, as it recaptures the psychological $1,850 barrier ahead of the critical US inflation data.


The recovery momentum in XAU/USD strengthens, as the US dollar index extends its pullback from above the 104.00 level, undermined by the relief rally seen across the global markets.

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose past 1.8% market consensus to 2.1% YoY whereas the Producer Price Index (PPI) crossed 7.7% expectations with the 8.0% yearly figures. As China is among the world’s top gold consumers, firmer inflation despite the coronavirus-led lockdowns underpins the hopes of the dragon nation’s future demand for the yellow metal.


Also favoring the prices could be headlines from Shanghai local authorities that mentioned no virus spread in eight districts.


On the same line were early Asian session comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic who mentioned that the US economy is strong and demand is high while also expecting the neutral rate at 2.0-2.5%.


Even so, Cleveland Fed President and FOMC member Loretta Mester recalled the market bears as she said, “They don't rule out a 75 basis points rate hike forever”.


Also challenging the gold buyers is China’s “Zero Covid Tolerance” policy despite the World Health Organization’s (WHO) push to ease the rigid activity restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing. The lockdowns in the world’s largest industrial player pose a serious threat to global growth, especially at a time when inflation fears are high.


Elsewhere, the tales of the Russia-Ukraine war and its likely negative implications also keep gold sellers hopeful. As per the latest updates, Europe needs to divert its gas flow from Russia which previously used to arrive via Ukraine.


Gold price: Four-hour chart


Amid these plays, the US 10-yer Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY) remain pressured around 2.99% whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains near the 4,000 level after a mixed closing on Wall Street.


Looking forward, the US CPI is expected to ease to 8.1% from 8.5%, and will be important to watch for fresh impulses. However, a major focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy figures which are likely to ease to 6.0% YoY versus 6.5% prior. Should the inflation figures refrain from easing for April, the US dollar will witness magnified buying, which in turn will drag XAU/USD towards a fresh multi-month low.

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Tuesday 10 May 2022

EUR/GBP clings to gains near 0.8570 area post-German ZEW, bulls eye YTD peak

 

  • EUR/GBP gained some positive traction on Tuesday and inched back closer to the YTD peak.
  • The BoE’s gloomy economic outlook continued weighing on sterling and acted as a tailwind.
  • Concerns about looming recession undermined the euro and capped any meaningful upside.

The EUR/GBP cross held on to its modest intraday gains, around the 0.8570 region through the first half of the European session and had a rather muted reaction to the German data.

The cross attracted some dip-buying near the 0.8545 zone on Tuesday and has now moved well within the striking distance of the YTD peak touched last week. The Bank of England's warning last week, saying that the economy was at the risk of a recession, suggested that the current rate hike cycle could be nearing a pause. This was seen as a key factor behind the British pound's relative outperformance and acted as a tailwind for the EUR/GBP cross.

That said, concerns that the European economy will suffer the most from the Ukraine crisis held back bullish traders from placing aggressive bets around the shared currency. On the economic data front, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index improved from -41.0 in April to -34.3 for the current month, beating estimates of -42.0 by a wide margin. This, however, did little to offset worries about the looming recession or provide any impetus to the EUR/GBP cross.

From a technical perspective, the post-BoE strong move up beyond the very important 200-day SMA and a descending trend-line extending from April 2021 support prospects for additional gains. Hence, some follow-through strength, towards reclaiming the 0.8600 mark for the first time since October 2021, still looks like a distinct possibility. That said, absent relevant market-moving economic releases warrant some caution before positioning for any further gains.

 Crude Oil Futures: Further downside looks unlikely

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets showed investors trimmed their open interest positions by around 3.4K contracts at the beginning of the week, adding to the previous daily drop. Volume, instead, increased for the fourth session in a row, now by around 160.2K contracts.



WTI: Next support comes at $100.30

Prices of the barrel of WTI dropped sharply on Monday against the backdrop of shrinking open interest. That said, extra losses appear out of favour in the very near term, while prices of the commodity remain well supported by the so far May low near the $100.00 mark per barrel.


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Monday 9 May 2022

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: The hunt for 140.00 remains well in place

EUR/JPY adds to the ongoing recovery north of 138.00.

Next on the upside comes the 139.00 hurdle ahead of 140.00.

EUR/JPY extends the upside momentum and trades in multi-day highs past 138.00 at the beginning of the week.


Extra gains now appear on the cards in the very near tern with the next target at the round level at 139.00 ahead of the 2022 high around 140.00 (April 21). Further up is seen the June 2015 peak at 141.05.


In the meantime, while above the 200-day SMA at 130.91, the outlook for the cross is expected to remain constructive.

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EUR/JPY daily chart


📕 Comment on Gold on May 9, 2022:


 

📕 Comment on Gold on May 9, 2022:


 - On Friday, the US released Nonfarm payrolls data, this data was better than market expectations but only caused Gold to decline slightly to 1875. Gold then bounced up to close the daily candle equal to 1875.  The bullish candle is around 1882. This also makes the last candle close with a bearish candle, but retreated quite long.

 - My personal view at the beginning of this week's trading session is that Gold will continue to gain momentum.  The closest support area for this precious metal is around 1873-1877.  Here we can establish a long position with a safe target around 1883 -1888.

Friday 6 May 2022

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD flat-lined around $1,975 region, eyes NFP for fresh impetus


Gold remained on the defensive through the early European session amid hawkish Fed expectations.

The underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the USD further acted as a headwind for the commodity.

A softer risk tone extended some support as investors await the release of the US jobs report (NFP).

Gold reversed modest intraday losses and was last seen trading around the $1,974-$1,975 region, nearly unchanged for the day during the early European session.


The spillover effect from the overnight broad sell-off on Wall Street weighed on investors' sentiment, which was evident from a softer tone around the equity markets. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that extended some support to the safe-haven gold, though any meaningful upside remains elusive amid the prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed.


Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that a 75 bps rate hike is not under active consideration, though stated that policymakers were ready to approve a 50 bps increase at upcoming meetings. Moreover, the markets are still pricing in a further 200 bps rate hike for the rest of 2022, which remained supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields.


Apart from this, the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar, which held steady near its highest level in two decades, further acted as a headwind for the dollar-denominated gold. The downside, however, seems cushioned as investors wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data.


The popularly known NFP report is expected to be consistent with tightening labour market conditions and likely back the case for additional Fed rate hikes. This, along with the emergence of fresh selling on Thursday, suggests that the path of least resistance for the non-yielding gold is to the downside and any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity.

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Thursday 5 May 2022

EUR/USD: Bulls could not hold the upside, back to 1.0600

EUR/USD faces decent resistance near 10640.

Germany Construction PMI retreated to 46.0 in April.

German 10Y bund yields flirt once again with 1.0%.

The upside momentum in EUR/USD seems to have run out of legs around multi-day highs near 1.0640 on Thursday.



EUR/USD meets resistance near 1.0640

After two consecutive daily advances, including fresh tops around 1.0640, EUR/USD now comes under some selling pressure and challenges once again the 1.0600 neighbourhood.


The corrective move in the pair comes pari passu with the recovery in the German 10y bund yields to the boundaries of the key 1.0% area along with the modest rebound in US yields along the curve.


In the euro docket, earlier results saw German Factory Orders contract at a monthly 4.7% in March, while the Construction PMI eased to 46.0 in April (from 50.9). Across the ocean, weekly Claims will be the only release of note.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD jumped to the 1.0640 region following the FOMC’s hangover, where it appears to have run into some resistance. The outlook for the pair still remains tilted towards the bearish side, always in response to dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence. Occasional pockets of strength in the single currency, in the meantime, should appear reinforced by speculation the ECB could raise rates at some point around June/July, while higher German yields, elevated inflation and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the region are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro.


Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Factory Orders, Construction PMI (Thursday) – Germany Industrial Production (Friday).


Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. Speculation of ECB tightening/tapering later in the year. Impact on the region’s economic growth prospects of the war in Ukraine.


EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is down 0.24% at 1.0592 and a breach of 1.0470 (2022 low April 28) would target 1.0453 (low January 11 2017) en route to 1.0340 (2017 low January 3 2017). On the upside, the next hurdle emerges at 1.0641 (weekly high May 5) followed by 1.0936 (weekly high April 21) and finally 1.1000 (round level).

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Monday 2 May 2022

US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Room for a test of YTD highs

 


  • DXY resumes the upside beyond the 103.00 yardstick.
  • Next on the upside comes the cycle tops near 104.00.

The index leaves behind the pullback seen at the end of last week and advances above the 103.00 area on Monday.

Price action in DXY remains supportive of the resumption of the uptrend with the initial target at the 2022 highs just below the 104.00 yardstick (April 28). Above this level comes 105.63 (December 11 2002 high).

The current bullish stance in the index remains supported by the 8-month line near 96.80, while the longer-term outlook for the dollar is seen constructive while above the 200-day SMA at 95.56

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