Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD south-run appears more compelling 

Gold price keeps reversal from the key hurdle, drops back towards yearly low.

Risk-aversion, hawkish central banks joined firmer yields to weigh on XAU/USD.

US Q2 GDP eyed for intraday clues, recession, Russia and central banks are in focus.

Bears can keep reins unless crossing $1,660 resistance confluence.

Gold price (XAU/USD) braces for the fresh yearly low, snapping a two-day uptrend, as the US dollar bulls return to the table after a brief absence the previous day. Fears of global recession and hawkish central bank actions are the major drivers that recently propelled the greenback. On the same line could be the upbeat US trade data and doubts over the Bank of England (BOE) and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to tame the economic slowdown woes. It’s worth noting that the chatters surrounding heavy rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) joined the BOE’s surprise bond action to trigger the metal’s biggest daily jump in six months the previous day.

Given the sour sentiment and the XAU/USD pullback from the key hurdles, the bears are likely to keep the reins. However, a close watch over the aforementioned risk catalysts and the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) appears necessary for clear directions.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price retreats from multiple strong resistances, suggesting a smooth run towards the south.

That said, a convergence of the previous weekly low and the SMA 100 on the hourly play, near $1,640, appears the immediate support to watch during the quote’s further weakness.

Following that, it can quickly decline towards the joint of the Pivot Point one week S1, close to $1,627.

During the XAU/USD downside past $1,627, the $1,600 appears the favorite among the gold bears.

Alternatively, $1,646 acts as the wall of resistance comprising Pivot Point one month S2, Fibonacci 38.2% on one day and 5-DMA.

If the metal prices cross the $1,646 hurdle, a run-up towards $1,653 can’t be ruled out. However, a convergence of 5-HMA, middle Bollinger on one-hour and Fibonacci 23.6% on one day and one week could challenge the buyers afterward.

It’s worth observing that the bullion’s run-up beyond $1,653 could aim for the last defense of bears, namely $1,660 that comprises the 10-DMA and Fibonacci 38.2% on one week.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edges lower in a familiar range amid relentless USD buying

Gold meets with a fresh supply on Friday and is pressured by sustained USD buying.

Aggressive Fed rate hike bets, elevated US bond yields continue to underpin the buck.

Recession fears weigh on investors’ sentiment and could offer support to the XAU/USD.

Gold attracts fresh selling near the $1,675-$1.676 area on Friday and drops to a fresh daily low during the first half of the European session. The XAU/USD is currently placed just below the $1,665 level and remains confined in a familiar trading range held since the beginning of this week.

The US dollar hits a new 20-year peak on the last day of the week and is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the dollar-denominated gold. Adding to this, the prospects for more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed further contribute to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.

In fact, the markets have been pricing in another supersized 75 bps Fed rate hike move in November. The bets were reaffirmed by the Fed's so-called dot plot, revealing that policymakers expect the benchmark lending rate to top 4% by the end of 2022. From there, central bank officials anticipate further hikes in 2023.

The Fed's hawkish outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. The yield on the rate-sensitive two-year US government bond touched a fresh 15-year high and the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped to its highest level since 2011 on Thursday. This, in turn, should continue to act as a tailwind for the buck.

Meanwhile, faster interest rate hikes by major central banks have stoked concerns of a deeper global economic downturn. This, along with headwinds stemming from China's zero-covid policy and the risk of a further escalation of the war in Ukraine, have been fueling recession fears and weighing on investors' sentiment.

This is evident from the ongoing fall in the equity markets, which could extend support to the safe-haven gold and help limit deeper losses. Even from a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action points to indecision among traders, warranting some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.

Market participants now look forward to the release of the flash US PMI prints, due later during the early North American session. The focus, however, will remain on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at an event in Washington, which will influence the USD and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around gold.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks to $1,700 amid Fed rate hike bets – Confluence Detector

Gold continues losing ground for the second straight day and drops to over a one-month low.

Strong follow-through USD buying, rising US bond yields continue to weigh on the commodity.

The risk-off impulse might turn out to be the only factor that might help limit any further losses.

Gold remains under heavy selling pressure for the second successive day on Monday and drops to over a one-month low, around the $1,720 area during the early part of the European session. The US dollar hits a fresh two-decade high amid rising bets for more aggressive Fed rate hikes and continues to weigh on the dollar-denominated commodity.

In fact, the markets are pricing in a greater chance of a 75 bps rate increase at the September FOMC meeting. A further rise in the US Treasury bond yields reinforces market expectations, which is seen as another factor driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. That said, the prevalent risk-off environment could offer some support to the safe-haven gold and help limit any further losses, at least for the time being.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the next relevant support for gold is pegged near the $1,719 area - Pivot Point One Day S2. This is closely followed by $1,714-$1,713 zone - Fibonacci 23.6% One Month. A convincing break below will expose the $1,706-$1,705 support - Pivot Point One Week S2 and the $1,700 round-figure mark. Some follow-through selling might make the XAU/USD vulnerable to retesting the YTD low, around the $1,680 region touched in July.

On the flip side, attempted recovery moves might now confront stiff resistance near the $1,728-$1,729 confluence support breakpoint, comprising Previous Week Low and Pivot Point One Day S1. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $1,732-$1,733 region - Fibonacci 38.2% One Month. Sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering rally towards the $1,737 zone - Fibonacci 23.6% One Week - en route to the $1,741-$1,742 region - Fibonacci 38.2% One Week - and the $1,745 barrier.

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

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US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Immediately to the upside comes 109.77

 

• DXY prints fresh cycle highs near 109.50 on Monday.
• Further upside could revisit the September 2002 high at 109.77.

DXY extends the post-Powell rally to the area of 109.50, recording at the same time new cycle highs.

Further upside remains on the cards for the index in the near term. Against that, the surpass of the 2022 high at 109.47 (August 29) should open the door to the September 2002 top at 109.77 prior to the round level at 110.00.

In the meantime, while above the 6-month support line around 105.40, the index is expected to keep the short-term positive stance.

Looking at the long-term scenario, the bullish view in the dollar remains in place while above the 200-day SMA at 100.74.

Gold Down Over an Expected Fed Hike

Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia while investors braced for a 75-basis-point interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week.

Gold futures edged down 0.16% to $1,724.55 by 12:25 AM ET (4:25 AM GMT). Gold prices have dropped more than $350, or 16% since scaling above the $2,000-per-ounce level in early March due to the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and the dollar’s rally.

The dollar which normally moves inversely to gold, inched down on Monday morning, while the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered near eight-week lows.

“The fall in U.S. yields on the back of global recessionary concerns has underpinned gold,” said SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes.

“Today, we could be seeing a touch of indecision ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee which is likely to underscore the Fed dilemma of fighting inflation at the expense of growth.”

Investors are now keeping an eye on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting which concludes on Wednesday, and markets are pricing in a 75-bp interest rate hike.

The European Central Bank (ECB) joined its global peers to bring down soaring inflation and raised interest rates by 50 bps. It is expected to deliver another hike until inflation falls back to its 2% target.

In other precious metals, silver fell 0.57%, platinum edged down 0.20%, and palladium fell 1.59%.

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 Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD path of least resistance appears down

Gold price gathers strength to retest 11-month troughs below $1,700.

US dollar stalls correction as risk sentiment turns cautious ahead ECB, BOJ.

XAUUSD faces a wall of resistance despite falling Treasury yields.

Gold price continues to mire in yearly troughs so far this week, lacking a clear directional bias amid repricing of the Fed rate hike expectations. Investors also refrain from placing any aggressive bets on the bright metal ahead of the ECB and BOJ monetary policy announcements. The BOJ is widely expected to stick to its ultra-loose monetary policy while the ECB may surprise markets with a 50 bps rate hike. More hawkish than expected ECB could weigh negatively on the non-interest-bearing gold price. Meanwhile, the lack of first-tier US macro data combined with the Fed’s ‘blackout’ period leaves the metal traders in search of a significant catalyst. Meanwhile, the XAUUSD price will remain at the mercy of risk trends, with the US earnings season underway.

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the downside appears more compelling for Gold price, as it faces a wall of resistance should any recovery momentum pick up steam.

A dense cluster of healthy resistance levels is stacked up around $1,711, where the SMA10 four-hour, Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and Bollinger Band four-hour Middle coincide.

The next hurdle is seen at the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1,714, above which bulls will need vigor to take out the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and 38.2% one-week at $1,716.

The previous day’s high of $1,719 will be the level to beat for XAU bulls.

Alternatively, strong support awaits at $1,704, which is the convergence of the pivot point one-day S1 and pivot point one-month S3.

The next relevant downside target is aligned at the previous week’s low of $1,698.

Further south, the pivot point one-day S3 at $1,693 will come to the rescue of gold buyers.

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Germany's Habeck: We want to prevent a domino effect in gas market

  

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Tuesday that they will stick to their plan of prioritizing private households in case of a gas emergency, as reported by Reuters.

"The gas market situation is tense, cannot say whether more protection measures will be needed," Habeck added. "We want to prevent a domino effect in the gas market."

Market reaction

Safe-haven flows continue to dominate the financial markets following these remarks. As of writing, Germany's DAX 30 Index was down 1.5% on the day at 12,580.50 points.

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD breaks below $1,800, bears gearing up to challenge YTD low

Gold Price was dragged below the $1,800 mark at the end of the week, its lowest level since May 16.

Aggressive Fed rate hike bets and a goodish pickup in the USD demand exerted some pressure.

Recession fears and the risk-off mood did little to lend any support to the safe-haven XAUUSD.

Gold Price prolonged this week's bearish trend and witnessed heavy follow-through selling on Friday, marking the fifth successive day of a negative move. The downward trajectory extended through the early part of the European session and dragged spot prices to the lowest level since May 16, around the $1,792 region in the last hour.

Flows were driven away from gold by the prospects for more aggressive rate hikes by the US central bank. These were reaffirmed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on Wednesday, which said that the US economy is well-positioned to handle tighter policy. Speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Powell added that the Fed remains focused on getting inflation under control and the market pricing is pretty close to the dot plot. Apart from this, broad-based US dollar strength further exerted downward pressure on the dollar-denominated commodity.

This combination of factors overshadowed the prevalent risk-off environment which tends to benefit the safe-haven precious metal. The market sentiment remains fragile amid concerns that rapidly rising rates and tightening financial conditions would pose challenges to global economic growth. Adding to this, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has been fueling fears about a possible recession. One would have thought this would embolden gold bulls but in reality it did little to impress investors or ease the bearish pressure surrounding gold.

The anti-risk flow was reinforced by the recent slump in the US Treasury bond yields, which, again, failed to lend any support to the yellow metal. With the latest leg down, spot prices now seem to have confirmed a fresh bearish breakdown below the $1,800 round-figure mark. Furthermore, effortless acceptance below the said handle might have already set the stage for an extension of the depreciating move towards the YTD low, around the $1,780 region. The downward trajectory could now extend towards the next relevant support near the $1,755-$1,750 zone. From here, traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for a fresh impetus.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD bears eye $1,820 and $1,816 as next targets

Gold Price rebound lacks follow-through bias, as Treasury yields firm up.

USD stays sluggish amid a better mood, ahead of NATO, ECB Forum.

Oil price surge keeps the demand for XAUUSD underpinned.

Optimism prevails, pointing to a turnaround Tuesday for the financial markets, as the previous week’s upbeat global momentum returns and caps the broad US dollar recovery. Investors, however, remain wary ahead of the key NATO Summit and a policy panel of the heads of the Fed, BOE and ECB due later this week. The sluggish price action in the dollar is helping Gold Price recoup a part of Monday’s sharp decline. The upside in the yellow metal lacks traction, however, as the US Treasury yields resume their gradual recovery mode amid lingering recession fears and an aggressive Fed rate-hike track. Buyers also remain cautious, as a slew of key US economic data are due for release later this week, which may prompt markets to re-price the hawkish Fed expectations, in turn impacting gold valuations.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that Gold Price is approaching the strong support around $1,820, where the previous day’s low and the lower band of the four hour Bollinger Band merge.

Selling interest may pick up steam below the latter, exposing the convergence of the previous week’s low, monthly Fibonacci 23.6% retracement and daily S1 pivot point merge at $1,816.

The line in the sand for gold optimists is seen at the weekly S1 pivot point at $1,813.

On the flip side, bulls need to find a strong foothold above the $1,829 barrier, which is the confluence of the 5-day SMA, and the daily and weekly Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level.

The next stop for bulls is aligned at the 10-day SMA at $1,832, above which the daily Fibonacci 61.8% level at $1,835 will come to sellers’ rescue.

Further up, the intersection of the weekly Fibonacci 61.8% level and the R1 daily pivot point at $1,837 will offer stiff resistance.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD jumps to fresh daily high, bulls flirt with 200-DMA ahead of Powell

Gold attracted some dip-buying on Wednesday and rallied nearly $20 from a multi-day low.

The risk-off impulse, sliding US bond yields, modest USD pullback extended some support.

Hawkish Fed expectations kept a lid on any meaningful upside ahead of Powell’s testimony.

Gold reversed an intraday dip to the $1,823 region, or a four-day low touched earlier this Wednesday and shot to a fresh daily peak during the mid-European session. The XAUUSD was last seen trading around the $1,840 region, with bulls now awaiting a convincing break through the very important 200-day SMA.

The overnight optimistic move in the equity markets fizzled out rather quickly amid worries that a more aggressive policy tightening by major central banks would pose challenges to the global economy. Adding to this, the supply chain disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war and the recent COVID-19 outbreak in China have been fueling fears about a potential recession. This continued weighing on investors' sentiment and triggered a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade, which, in turn, offered some support to the safe-haven gold.

The anti-risk flow was reinforced by a steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields and held back the US dollar bulls from placing aggressive bids. Apart from this, some repositioning trade ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee forced the USD to surrender its intraday gains, which further benefitted the dollar-denominated gold. That said, expectations that the Fed would hike interest rates at a faster pace to curb inflation kept a lid on any meaningful upside for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Hence, investors will closely scrutinize Powell's comments for fresh clues about the policy tightening path. This will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help determine the next leg of a directional move for gold. This makes it prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond a technically significant 200-DMA before traders start positioning for any further appreciating move for the XAUUSD.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD steadily climbs to $1,825 area, fresh daily high ahead of FOMC

Gold gained traction on Wednesday and snapped a two-day losing streak to a near one-month low.

Retreating US bond yields prompted some USD profit-taking and extended some support to the metal.

Hawkish Fed expectations might cap gains for the XAUUSD ahead of the key central bank event risk.

Gold attracted some buying on Wednesday and for now, has snapped a two-day losing streak to a near one-month low, around the $1,805 region touched the previous day. The XAUUSD built on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session and climbed to a fresh daily high, around the $1,826 region in the last hour.

Retreating US Treasury bond yields prompted traders to take some profits off their US dollar bullish bets, especially after the recent strong bullish run to a two-decade high. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that prompt some short-covering around the dollar-denominated commodity. That said, the attempted recovery move runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly and remains capped amid expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed.

Investors now seem convinced that the US central bank would tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace to combat stubbornly high inflation, which surged to a four-decade high in May. In fact, Fed fund futures indicate rising odds of a 75 bps rate hike at the conclusion of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday and another 75 bps hike in July. This should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the USD, which, in turn, might cap gains for the non-yielding gold.

Hence, the focus remains glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, due later during the US session. A 75 bps Fed rate hike move would be the biggest since 1994 and send shockwaves across asset classes, boosting the USD and lending some support to gold prices. In the meantime, traders might take cues from the US monthly Retail Sales figures, though any immediate market reaction is more likely to be short-lived.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to fall further towards $1,691/77 – Credit Suisse

Gold tested $1,800 on Monday but managed to reverse its direction. Economists at Credit Suisse expect the yellow metal to suffer additional losses towards the $1,691/77 zone.

Gold/Silver ratio holding a major base to reinforce the likelihood gold still outperforms

“Gold has broken support from its uptrend from last August and 200-day average at $1,838/28 to warn of a retest of pivotal long-term support from the lower end of the two-year range at $1,691/77. Only below here though would see an important top established here also.”

“The Gold/Silver ratio has completed a major base to suggest that gold should continue to outperform silver and even though gold can weaken on an outright basis, it is still more likely weakness within the broader range for now.”

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Russia's Putin: Will react to expansion of military infrastructure in Finland, Sweden

 Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that the expansion of NATO is a problem and it is in the interests of the USA, reported Reuters. Russia has no problems with Finland and Sweden, he continued, but Russia will react to the expansion of military infrastructure in these countries. Putin added that Russia needs to pay additional attention to NATO plans to increase its global influence. 

Finland and Sweden both announced their commitment to applying for NATO membership over the weekend and most NATO nations have come out in support. 

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles near one-week low, below $1,950 ahead of Powell

• Gold Price is back in the red, as sellers keep lurking just below $1,960.
• An uptick in the US bond yields acted as a headwind for the commodity.
• All eyes remain on Fed Chair Powell’s and US President Biden’s speech.

Gold struggled to capitalize on the previous day's modest rebound from over a one-week low and came under some renewed selling pressure on Thursday. The XAU/USD remained on the defensive through the early European session and was last seen trading just below the $1,950 level.

The mild recovery in the US Treasury yields on increased Fed’s hawkishness is acting as a headwind for spot prices. Gold could see further downside risks in the near term on rising bets for multiple 50 bps Fed rate hikes, which had sent the US 10-year real yields into the positive territory for the first time in two years.

Apart from this, the risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - weighed on traditional safe-haven assets, including gold. That said, the ongoing US dollar retracement slide from its highest level since March 2020 could lend some support to the dollar-denominated commodity.

The main event risk for Gold Price on Thursday remains Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Summit. His comments will hold the key, as they come just before the bank enters its "blackout" period.

Powell may fail to excite the dollar bulls and could emerge as a boon for Gold Price, as he may refrain from hinting at an aggressive tightening outlook after the US core inflation eased a bit in March.

The sentiment on global markets will be also closely followed for its impact on the safe-haven Gold amid uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine war, concerning inflation levels that threaten the economic recovery worldwide.

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 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD treads water around $1,930, in search of fresh direction

• Gold price is keeping its weekly range trade intact around $1,930.
• US dollar, yields capitalize on increased bets of a 50-bps May Fed rate hike.
• Gold Price Forecast: Will XAU/USD close the week above critical 21-DMA at $1,935?

Gold price is flatlined while trading within the mid of this week’s range around $1,930 so far this Friday. The market sentiment has somewhat improved in European trading, which has triggered a pullback in the US dollar and the Treasury yields. Although the underlying concerns over the aggressive Fed’s tightening and the Western sanctions on Russia are likely to keep the dollar bulls hopeful amid a data-light US docket. The Fed commentary continued to back the case for a 50-bps rate hike in the May meeting, dulling the demand for the non-interest-bearing gold price. The bulls need a decisive close above the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,935 to kick start a fresh uptrend. Attention now turns towards the critical US inflation data due next week. Meanwhile, the sentiment around the dollar and yields will continue to have a significant impact on the bright metal.

Gold (XAU/USD) has tumbled below its principal cushion of $1,930.00 as the market participants are raising bets on settlement of the US dollar index (DXY) above the crucial resistance of 100.00. The precious metal is falling gradually in the Asian session after a mildly positive start on Friday.

The discussions over pushing the interest rate to its mean reversion by the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are underpinning the greenback against the yellow metal. A preliminary estimate of the yearly US Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 6.6%, which will release next week, is dictating the story of soaring inflation. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have narrated the neutral rate at 2.4% at which demand will not dampen and growth will not de-escalate. To shift the current interest rates to the neutral rate, the Fed has already announced one or more interest rate hikes by 50 basis points (bps) out of the six interest rate hikes to be announced this year.

The DXY is trading around 100.00, seeking a trigger that will drive the asset higher. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields are trading at 2.66%, at the press time and are looking to extend gains by overstepping a three-year high at 2.67%.

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