Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to come under pressure if real rates remain elevated – SocGen

Gold has resisted higher real rates, strong dollar and fund outflows, but remains vulnerable, in the view of strategists at Société Générale.

Gold has outperformed treasuries and TIPS so far this year

“In the past, we have observed that gold seems to correlate well with three factors – US real rates, the dollar and ETF flows (regression r-squared of almost 95%). However, the price of gold has remained quite elevated compared to the theoretical value yielded by our models.”

“If real rates remain elevated for the foreseeable future, one of the assets that could come under pressure is gold.”

“Gold has outperformed treasuries and TIPS so far this year, but may not be able to resist the high yield for much longer if there is no pivot in the near-term from the Fed.”

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD sits near three-week high, above $1,700 amid weaker USD

Gold gains strong follow-through traction and rallies to a three-week high on Tuesday.

Retreating US bond yields weighs heavily on the USD and offers support to the metal.

Bulls shrug off the risk-on impulse, though hawkish Fed expectations could cap gains.

Gold is extending the overnight breakout momentum through the $1,680-$1,685 supply zone and building on its recovery from the lowest level since April 2020. The strong follow-through positive move lifts the XAU/USD to a three-week high, around the $1,710 region during the first half of the European session on Tuesday.

The US dollar retreats further from a two-decade top touched last week and turns out to be a key factor driving flows towards the dollar-denominated commodity. The Bank of England's willingness to buy up to £5 billion of long-dated gilts drags the US bond yields away from a multi-year top and continues to weigh on the greenback.

Apart from this, growing worries about a deeper economic downturn in the US and Europe offer additional support to the safe-haven gold. The fears were further fueled by Monday's disappointing US data, which showed that manufacturing activity grew marginally in September, at its slowest pace in nearly 2-1/2 years.

This, to a larger extent, helps offset the risk-on mood and does little to dent the prevalent bullish sentiment surrounding gold. That said, the prospects for a more aggressive policy tightening by major central banks could act as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal and keep a lid on any further gain, at least for now.

Market participants now look forward to the US monthly employment details, scheduled for release on Friday. The popularly known NFP report will play a key role in influencing the Fed's future rate hike path. This, in turn, should help investors to determine the next leg of a directional move for the greenback and gold.

In the meantime, Tuesday's US economic docket features JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders data. This, along with speeches by FOMC members and the US bond yields, will drive the USD demand and provide impetus to the XAU/USD. Traders will also take cues from the broader risk sentiment for short-term opportunities around gold.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises to more than one-week high amid heavy USD selling

Gold gains strong positive traction on Friday amid aggressive USD long-unwinding trade.

Aggressive Fed rate hike bets, elevated US bond yields should help limit the USD losses.

The risk-on impulse could further contribute to capping the safe-haven precious metal.

Gold attracts fresh buying on the last day of the week and climbs to a nearly two-week high during the early part of the European session. The XAU/USD is currently placed just below the $1,730 level and is looking to build on its recent bounce from the lowest level since July 21 touched last week.

The US dollar comes under heavy selling pressure on Friday and retreats further from a two-decade high, which turns out to be a key factor boosting demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. The steep USD downfall to a fresh monthly low could be solely attributed to some long-unwinding and is more likely to remain limited amid hawkish Fed expectations.

In fact, the US central bank is anticipated to tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace to tame inflation and the bets were reaffirmed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. Speaking at a Cato Institute conference, Powell reiterated the central bank's strong commitment to bringing inflation down and added that the Fed needs to keep going until it gets the job done.

Powell's remarks reaffirmed market bets for a supersized 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 20-21. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which should help limit any meaningful USD corrective slide. Moreover, other major central banks, except the Bank of Japan, have also maintained a more hawkish bias.

Apart from this, the risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - might further contribute to capping the upside for the safe-haven metal. This, in turn, warrants some caution for aggressive bulls. Nevertheless, gold remains on track to register weekly gains and snap a three-week losing streak.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks to $1,700 amid Fed rate hike bets – Confluence Detector

Gold continues losing ground for the second straight day and drops to over a one-month low.

Strong follow-through USD buying, rising US bond yields continue to weigh on the commodity.

The risk-off impulse might turn out to be the only factor that might help limit any further losses.

Gold remains under heavy selling pressure for the second successive day on Monday and drops to over a one-month low, around the $1,720 area during the early part of the European session. The US dollar hits a fresh two-decade high amid rising bets for more aggressive Fed rate hikes and continues to weigh on the dollar-denominated commodity.

In fact, the markets are pricing in a greater chance of a 75 bps rate increase at the September FOMC meeting. A further rise in the US Treasury bond yields reinforces market expectations, which is seen as another factor driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. That said, the prevalent risk-off environment could offer some support to the safe-haven gold and help limit any further losses, at least for the time being.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the next relevant support for gold is pegged near the $1,719 area - Pivot Point One Day S2. This is closely followed by $1,714-$1,713 zone - Fibonacci 23.6% One Month. A convincing break below will expose the $1,706-$1,705 support - Pivot Point One Week S2 and the $1,700 round-figure mark. Some follow-through selling might make the XAU/USD vulnerable to retesting the YTD low, around the $1,680 region touched in July.

On the flip side, attempted recovery moves might now confront stiff resistance near the $1,728-$1,729 confluence support breakpoint, comprising Previous Week Low and Pivot Point One Day S1. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $1,732-$1,733 region - Fibonacci 38.2% One Month. Sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering rally towards the $1,737 zone - Fibonacci 23.6% One Week - en route to the $1,741-$1,742 region - Fibonacci 38.2% One Week - and the $1,745 barrier.

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to see modest weakness for the remainder of 2022, before recovering in 2023

Gold prices have declined by 3.6% year-to-date. Strategists at ABN Amro have downgraded their gold price outlook, expecting modest weakness for the remainder of 2022, before prices will recover in 2023. 

New year-end forecasts are $1,700 in 2022 and $1,900 in 2023

“We expect modestly lower gold prices for the remainder of this year. There is a crucial support area layered at $1,680-$1,700. We expect these levels to be tested again and prices could move below these, albeit only temporary. Our new forecast for the end of 2022 is $1,700.”

“For 2023, the gold price outlook is more positive. Not only do we expect the US dollar to weaken, but we also expect the Fed to start cutting rates in the second half of 2023. On top of that, we expect lower US real yields. As a result, gold prices are likely to rebound next year. Having said that, we do not believe that gold prices will set a new high though.” 

“Our new year-end 2023 forecast is $1,900.”

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears target $1,720 as US dollar keeps reins

Gold price extends its losing streak into the sixth straight day on Monday.

US dollar resumes its rally as risk-aversion gathers steam amid surging energy costs.

XAU/USD needs to crack $1,730 to extend the sell-off towards $1,720 and $1,714.  

Gold price remains under intense selling pressure at the start of the week, extending the previous week’s bearish momentum into the sixth straight day. The relentless demand for the safe-haven US dollar could be linked as the main underlying factor behind the latest sell-off in the bright metal. Investors witness flight to safety amid hawkish Fed expectations and surging energy costs in Europe and Asia after Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline announced its closure due to maintenance end of this month. Global central banks’ fight to tame inflation is likely to prolong amid rising food and energy prices, which dents risk appetite while weighing negatively on the non-interest bearing yellow metal. Gold traders shrug off the minor pullback in the US Treasury yields, as the dollar will likely remain the preferred safety bet heading into the much-awaited Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled later this week.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price is eyeing a fresh downswing towards the Bollinger Band one-day Lower at $1,720 should bears yield a sustained break below the $1,730 barrier. That level is the intersection of the pivot point one-day S3 and pivot point one-week S1.

The next critical support area is located around $1,714, the Fibonacci 232.6% one-month.

Alternatively, the metal could rebound towards the pivot point one-day S2 at $1,737 should bears face exhaustion.

Further up, the pivot point one-day S1 at $1,743 will come into the picture. Bulls will then look to recapture the previous day’s low of $1,746.

The last line of defense for XAU sellers is envisioned at the confluence of the SMA200 four-hour and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day around $1,750.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD breaks below $1,800, bears gearing up to challenge YTD low

Gold Price was dragged below the $1,800 mark at the end of the week, its lowest level since May 16.

Aggressive Fed rate hike bets and a goodish pickup in the USD demand exerted some pressure.

Recession fears and the risk-off mood did little to lend any support to the safe-haven XAUUSD.

Gold Price prolonged this week's bearish trend and witnessed heavy follow-through selling on Friday, marking the fifth successive day of a negative move. The downward trajectory extended through the early part of the European session and dragged spot prices to the lowest level since May 16, around the $1,792 region in the last hour.

Flows were driven away from gold by the prospects for more aggressive rate hikes by the US central bank. These were reaffirmed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on Wednesday, which said that the US economy is well-positioned to handle tighter policy. Speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Powell added that the Fed remains focused on getting inflation under control and the market pricing is pretty close to the dot plot. Apart from this, broad-based US dollar strength further exerted downward pressure on the dollar-denominated commodity.

This combination of factors overshadowed the prevalent risk-off environment which tends to benefit the safe-haven precious metal. The market sentiment remains fragile amid concerns that rapidly rising rates and tightening financial conditions would pose challenges to global economic growth. Adding to this, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has been fueling fears about a possible recession. One would have thought this would embolden gold bulls but in reality it did little to impress investors or ease the bearish pressure surrounding gold.

The anti-risk flow was reinforced by the recent slump in the US Treasury bond yields, which, again, failed to lend any support to the yellow metal. With the latest leg down, spot prices now seem to have confirmed a fresh bearish breakdown below the $1,800 round-figure mark. Furthermore, effortless acceptance below the said handle might have already set the stage for an extension of the depreciating move towards the YTD low, around the $1,780 region. The downward trajectory could now extend towards the next relevant support near the $1,755-$1,750 zone. From here, traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for a fresh impetus.

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Gold Price Forecast: $1,816 keeps luring XAUUSD sellers 

Gold Price rebounds from six-day lows but buyers remain wary.

Upbeat mood keeps USD bears in control despite a pause in the yields sell-off.

Central banks' rate hike bets cool off amid looming recession risks.

The R-word is back on the radars, prompting markets to scale back aggressive rate hike expectations from major central banks worldwide. Cooling hawkish expectations is helping calm investors’ nerves, weighing negatively on the safe-haven US dollar at the expense of gold price. However, stabilizing US Treasury yields, following the recent retreat, are keeping the further upside elusive in the bright metal. The market’s perception of risk sentiment, in the facing of lingering inflation and recession worries will continue to drive the US dollar price action, in turn, influencing XAUUSD. Attention now turns towards next Monday’s US Durable Goods data and the ECB Forum in Sintra, where the central banks’ heads are likely to participate in a panel discussion on the monetary policy.

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