Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drops to key support amid stronger USD, Fed rate hike jitters

• Gold remains under heavy selling pressure for the fourth successive day on Monday.
• Aggressive Fed rate hike bets continue to boost the USD and weigh on the XAU/USD.
• The risk-off mood could lend some support ahead of this week’s key event/data risks.

Gold extends last week's retracement slide from the $1,730 region and continues losing ground for the fourth successive day on Monday. The downward trajectory remains uninterrupted through the first half of the European session and drags spot prices to key support at a one-week low, around the $1,678 region in the last hour.

Expectations that the Fed will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path lifts the US dollar to a one-and-half-week high, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the dollar-denominated gold. The robust US monthly jobs report released on Friday pointed to the resilient economy and gives the US central bank enough space to keep hiking rates at a faster pace to combat stubbornly high inflation.

In fact, the markets are now pricing in a greater chance of the fourth consecutive supersized 75 bps rate increase at the next FOMC policy meeting in November. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and further contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. Hence, the market focus remains on the FOMC minutes and the US consumer inflation data.

Investors will look for fresh clues about the Fed's future rate hike path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the USD and provide a fresh directional impetus to gold. Apart from this, traders, this week will take cues from the US monthly Retail Sales data. In the meantime, the prevalent risk-off mood could limit losses for the safe-haven XAU/USD amid holiday-thinned liquidity. In addition, gold has reached an important support level in the $1,670s, where it met with significant resistance prior to its breakout last week. This level is now likely to offer support to prices and provide a rallying point for bulls, although the extent of the support is difficult to determine, and traders should keep in mind that the short and medium-term bias remains to downside.

The market sentiment remains fragile amid worries about economic headwinds stemming from rapidly rising borrowing costs. Apart from this, a further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and renewed US-China trade jitters temper investors' appetite for riskier assets. That said, the lack of any buying interest around gold suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside, although a daily open or close below the current support ledge in the $1,670s would be required to confirm further downside to come.  

WANT DIRECT TALK TO OUR EXPERTS CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD south-run appears more compelling 

Gold price keeps reversal from the key hurdle, drops back towards yearly low.

Risk-aversion, hawkish central banks joined firmer yields to weigh on XAU/USD.

US Q2 GDP eyed for intraday clues, recession, Russia and central banks are in focus.

Bears can keep reins unless crossing $1,660 resistance confluence.

Gold price (XAU/USD) braces for the fresh yearly low, snapping a two-day uptrend, as the US dollar bulls return to the table after a brief absence the previous day. Fears of global recession and hawkish central bank actions are the major drivers that recently propelled the greenback. On the same line could be the upbeat US trade data and doubts over the Bank of England (BOE) and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to tame the economic slowdown woes. It’s worth noting that the chatters surrounding heavy rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) joined the BOE’s surprise bond action to trigger the metal’s biggest daily jump in six months the previous day.

Given the sour sentiment and the XAU/USD pullback from the key hurdles, the bears are likely to keep the reins. However, a close watch over the aforementioned risk catalysts and the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) appears necessary for clear directions.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price retreats from multiple strong resistances, suggesting a smooth run towards the south.

That said, a convergence of the previous weekly low and the SMA 100 on the hourly play, near $1,640, appears the immediate support to watch during the quote’s further weakness.

Following that, it can quickly decline towards the joint of the Pivot Point one week S1, close to $1,627.

During the XAU/USD downside past $1,627, the $1,600 appears the favorite among the gold bears.

Alternatively, $1,646 acts as the wall of resistance comprising Pivot Point one month S2, Fibonacci 38.2% on one day and 5-DMA.

If the metal prices cross the $1,646 hurdle, a run-up towards $1,653 can’t be ruled out. However, a convergence of 5-HMA, middle Bollinger on one-hour and Fibonacci 23.6% on one day and one week could challenge the buyers afterward.

It’s worth observing that the bullion’s run-up beyond $1,653 could aim for the last defense of bears, namely $1,660 that comprises the 10-DMA and Fibonacci 38.2% on one week.

WANT DIRECT TALK TO OUR EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks to $1,700 amid Fed rate hike bets – Confluence Detector

Gold continues losing ground for the second straight day and drops to over a one-month low.

Strong follow-through USD buying, rising US bond yields continue to weigh on the commodity.

The risk-off impulse might turn out to be the only factor that might help limit any further losses.

Gold remains under heavy selling pressure for the second successive day on Monday and drops to over a one-month low, around the $1,720 area during the early part of the European session. The US dollar hits a fresh two-decade high amid rising bets for more aggressive Fed rate hikes and continues to weigh on the dollar-denominated commodity.

In fact, the markets are pricing in a greater chance of a 75 bps rate increase at the September FOMC meeting. A further rise in the US Treasury bond yields reinforces market expectations, which is seen as another factor driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. That said, the prevalent risk-off environment could offer some support to the safe-haven gold and help limit any further losses, at least for the time being.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the next relevant support for gold is pegged near the $1,719 area - Pivot Point One Day S2. This is closely followed by $1,714-$1,713 zone - Fibonacci 23.6% One Month. A convincing break below will expose the $1,706-$1,705 support - Pivot Point One Week S2 and the $1,700 round-figure mark. Some follow-through selling might make the XAU/USD vulnerable to retesting the YTD low, around the $1,680 region touched in July.

On the flip side, attempted recovery moves might now confront stiff resistance near the $1,728-$1,729 confluence support breakpoint, comprising Previous Week Low and Pivot Point One Day S1. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $1,732-$1,733 region - Fibonacci 38.2% One Month. Sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering rally towards the $1,737 zone - Fibonacci 23.6% One Week - en route to the $1,741-$1,742 region - Fibonacci 38.2% One Week - and the $1,745 barrier.

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK TO OUR EXPERTS CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to see modest weakness for the remainder of 2022, before recovering in 2023

Gold prices have declined by 3.6% year-to-date. Strategists at ABN Amro have downgraded their gold price outlook, expecting modest weakness for the remainder of 2022, before prices will recover in 2023. 

New year-end forecasts are $1,700 in 2022 and $1,900 in 2023

“We expect modestly lower gold prices for the remainder of this year. There is a crucial support area layered at $1,680-$1,700. We expect these levels to be tested again and prices could move below these, albeit only temporary. Our new forecast for the end of 2022 is $1,700.”

“For 2023, the gold price outlook is more positive. Not only do we expect the US dollar to weaken, but we also expect the Fed to start cutting rates in the second half of 2023. On top of that, we expect lower US real yields. As a result, gold prices are likely to rebound next year. Having said that, we do not believe that gold prices will set a new high though.” 

“Our new year-end 2023 forecast is $1,900.”

WANT DIRECT TALK TO OUR EXPERTS CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears target $1,720 as US dollar keeps reins

Gold price extends its losing streak into the sixth straight day on Monday.

US dollar resumes its rally as risk-aversion gathers steam amid surging energy costs.

XAU/USD needs to crack $1,730 to extend the sell-off towards $1,720 and $1,714.  

Gold price remains under intense selling pressure at the start of the week, extending the previous week’s bearish momentum into the sixth straight day. The relentless demand for the safe-haven US dollar could be linked as the main underlying factor behind the latest sell-off in the bright metal. Investors witness flight to safety amid hawkish Fed expectations and surging energy costs in Europe and Asia after Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline announced its closure due to maintenance end of this month. Global central banks’ fight to tame inflation is likely to prolong amid rising food and energy prices, which dents risk appetite while weighing negatively on the non-interest bearing yellow metal. Gold traders shrug off the minor pullback in the US Treasury yields, as the dollar will likely remain the preferred safety bet heading into the much-awaited Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled later this week.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price is eyeing a fresh downswing towards the Bollinger Band one-day Lower at $1,720 should bears yield a sustained break below the $1,730 barrier. That level is the intersection of the pivot point one-day S3 and pivot point one-week S1.

The next critical support area is located around $1,714, the Fibonacci 232.6% one-month.

Alternatively, the metal could rebound towards the pivot point one-day S2 at $1,737 should bears face exhaustion.

Further up, the pivot point one-day S1 at $1,743 will come into the picture. Bulls will then look to recapture the previous day’s low of $1,746.

The last line of defense for XAU sellers is envisioned at the confluence of the SMA200 four-hour and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day around $1,750.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK TO OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to struggle on a peak in US inflation – ANZ

The challenges for the gold market are still in place. A peak in US inflation suggests a downside risk to the gold price. Still, increasing recessionary pressure and geopolitical risks could protect the downside, economists at ANZ Bank report.

Geopolitical and economic growth risks could protect the downside

“In 1980 when inflation peaked at 14.7%, gold prices started retreating from a high of $631/oz. Something similar happened in 2011, when inflation hit a high of 3.9% in September, triggering a fall from $1,900. With inflation peaking at 9% in June, we could see a similar fall in XAU/USD. The winding down of the Fed’s balance sheet also does not bode well.”

“Rising geopolitical tensions and economic risks could lend some support. The Russia-Ukraine war and China-US relations are issues that could trigger haven buying.”

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD needs to crack $1,763 to extend the downside

Gold price nurses losses after impressive US NFP-inspired sell-off.

US dollar eases in tandem with the Treasury yields amid a better mood.

XAU/USD looks south towards $1,750, as 75 bps Sept Fed rate hike bets rise.

Gold price is licking its wound below the $1,800 mark, awaiting a fresh catalyst for the next leg lower. Risk-on flows have returned at the start of the week, fuelling a broad-based US dollar retreat while the Treasury yields also ease. Investors assess the implications of a super-sized Fed rate next months, the odds for which now stand at 70% after a big upside surprise in the US Nonfarm Payrolls for July. The jobs blowout raised the stakes for the July US inflation report due on Wednesday. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) could likely see a slight pullback in headline growth but the core figure is seen accelerating. The debate of peak inflation remains in play heading into the key event risk of the week. The non-yielding bullion is expected to remain highly reactive to the US employment and inflation data after the Fed said that it remains data-dependent while deciding on its policy outlook.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price needs to slice through a bunch of healthy support levels around the $1,772-$1,771 area to resume the post-NFP sell-off.

That demand zone is the convergence of the SMA5 one-day, Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and the previous low four-hour.

The Fibonacci 61.8% one-week at $1,769 will be next on sellers’ radars. However, bears need acceptance below the confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month and pivot point one-day S1 at $1,763 to negate the recent bullish momentum.

Further south, the intersection of the previous week’s low and the pivot point one-week S1 at $1,754 will guard the downside.

On the upside, the immediate resistance appears at $1,775, above which the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week at %1,780 will be challenged.

The next resistance levels are located at $1,784 and $1,786, which are the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week respectively.

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold investors face bind over bars from tarnished Russia

Some investors want Russian gold off their books but it's not that easy to remove.

A de facto ban on Russian bullion minted after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine -- instigated by the London market in early March -- does not apply to hundreds of tonnes of gold that has been sitting in commercial vaults since before the conflict started.

Fund managers looking to sell the metal to avoid the deepening reputational risk of holding assets linked to Russia in their portfolios could trigger a costly scramble to replace it with non-Russian gold, according to bankers and investors.

"This would only serve to damage investors. It doesn't damage the (Russian) regime," said Christopher Mellor at Invesco, whose fund has around 265 tonnes of gold, 35 tonnes of it produced in Russia with a market value of around $2 billion.

The dilemma facing investors reflects Russia's heft in the global bullion trade and its hub, the London market, where gold worth around $50 billion changes hands daily in private deals.

A rapid selloff of gold from Russia -- a top three supplier -- would potentially disrupt that trade by undermining the principle that all bars in the London trading system are interchangeable regardless of their origin, according to three senior bankers at major gold trading banks.

To buttress the market, two of the bankers told Reuters they contacted clients and rival banks to tell them they would not dump Russian bullion minted before the war.

The bankers said they advised their customers and other traders that they should do the same. They declined to be named due to the confidential nature of the conversations.

"I made an effort to call clients. I told them, if you demand that your Russian metal is swapped out, you'll create a problem for yourself. You don't want to create a scramble," one said.

He said his phone lit up with calls after the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), a trade body that sets market standards, removed all Russian refineries from its accredited list on March 7, meaning their newly minted bars could no longer trade in London or on the COMEX exchange in New York, the biggest gold futures trading venue.

"There was utter confusion. Funds were saying they didn't want any Russian bars in their holdings," the banker said.

THE BANK OF ENGLAND

Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 in what it has called a "special military operation" aimed at demilitarising Ukraine and rooting out dangerous nationalists. Kyiv and the West call this a baseless pretext for an aggressive land grab.

The Bank of England, which operates Britain's largest gold vault, said it considered Russian gold bars made before the conflict in Ukraine eligible to trade because they are still on the LBMA's accredited list, known as the Good Delivery List.

"As far as the Bank of England is concerned, any Russian refined gold produced after 8th March is not London Good Delivery. Any bars produced before that remain acceptable, and we told all our customers this was the case. That's just a point of fact, so we don't have any comment on this," the Bank of England said in an emailed statement.

To hammer home the point that pre-invasion Russian gold was meant to be treated the same as gold from other places, some banks told clients for whom they stored gold that they would have to pay extra to offload Russian bullion because it would breach their existing contracts, the two bankers, a third banker and two gold-owning investment funds said.

The bankers' conversations with clients and rivals, which have not previously been reported, highlight the role played by a handful of players in the London gold market, where trades happen in bilateral deals.

Twelve banks dominate trading in the London gold market and four of them -- JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), HSBC, ICBC Standard Bank and UBS -- operate vaults. Anyone trading bullion relies on their services, directly or indirectly, to settle trades.

JPMorgan, HSBC, ICBC Standard and UBS declined to comment when asked about how they handled investor requests to sell their holdings of Russian gold.

The LBMA, which is made up of gold refiners, traders and banks, is not a regulator, and relies on market participants to uphold its rules.

The large quantity of Russian gold in the London market and Russia's rapidly emerging pariah status in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, however, put the banks in a difficult spot, according to lawyers and market experts.

"I think you're seeing the banking community trying to navigate a very complex situation," said Peter Hahn, emeritus professor at the London Institute of Banking & Finance.

"The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) should question the practice to understand whether the actions were, generally, for the benefit of market participants ... and whether the practice was transparent to market participants."

The FCA, the British regulator responsible for overseeing the banks and traders in the London gold market, declined to comment.

A spokesman for the LBMA said the association was "anecdotally" aware that some owners and traders of Russian gold have wanted to swap it out or not to deal with Russian gold in the future.

Asked what the LBMA thought of this, the spokesman said that it "maintains a neutral stance provided the efficient operation of the market is unaffected."

The spokesman declined to comment on bankers' efforts to prevent a sell-off of Russian gold. He said that the LBMA "does not distinguish between different types of good delivery gold".

POTENTIAL LOSSES

The bankers' actions appear to have worked.

Good delivery gold bars minted in Russia before the invasion have not traded at a discount to the rest of the market, according to traders. Larger investors -- including some exchange traded funds (ETFs) with Russian gold worth more than $1 billion -- do not appear to have sold up.

"Our ETFs are not able to get all Russian metals off their books at short notice," said a spokesperson for Zürcher Kantonalbank.

"The potential losses would not be compatible with our fiduciary duty to our clients and its sale is currently not possible due to the current situation."

Zürcher Kantonalbank's current ETF stock of about 160 tonnes of gold comes mainly from Swiss refineries and the share of Russian gold is negligible, according to the spokesperson.

A widespread and rapid clearout of Russian gold from investor portfolios could push its price down by anywhere from $1-$40 an ounce compared to non-Russian gold, people in the industry said.

At least $12 billion worth of Russian gold is stored in vaults in London, New York and Zurich, according to a Reuters analysis of data from 11 large investment funds. The total amount is likely significantly larger but there are no publicly available figures to quantify it.

If Russian gold traded at a discount of $5 an ounce, the cost to funds of replacing $12 billion worth of metal would be around $34 million.

A Reuters analysis of investment data shows that the share of Russian gold in eight large ETFs actually rose to 7% on average in mid-July from 6.5% in mid-March.

Some gold market participants have pushed ahead with selling their Russian holdings but they have tended to have less to offload.

Britain's Royal Mint, for example, said it had Russian bars worth around $40 million in its ETF and got rid of them by mid-March.

Others are trying to reduce their Russian holdings over time, asking the banks which store their gold to gradually cut their allocation or refusing to accept Russian gold bars in new deliveries.

Asset manager Abrdn said it had asked its bank to reduce its Russian holdings. In mid-March, Russian gold accounted for 10% of the roughly 45 tonnes held in its Aberdeen Standard ETF. By mid-July, that proportion had fallen to 9.8%.

Those seeking a faster exit, meanwhile, have been left in a bind.

"Everyone has the same problem. Everyone wants to solve it, no one knows how," said a source at a major investment fund.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold price climbs to two-week high amid the post-FOMC USD selling, focus shifts to US GDP

Gold price scales higher for the second successive day and climbed to over a two-week high.

The post-FOMC USD selling bias remains unabated and is offering support to the metal.

Rebounding US bond yields, the risk-on impulse could cap gains ahead of the US Q2 GDP.

Gold price builds on the overnight goodish rebound from the $1,711 area, or a multi-day low, and gains some follow-through traction for the second successive day on Thursday. The positive move lifts the XAUUSD to over a two-week high during the early European session, with bulls now awaiting sustained strength beyond the $1,745-$1,750 strong resistance zone.

The US dollar prolongs the previous day's less hawkish FOMC-inspired decline and slips to its lowest level since July 6. This, in turn, is offering some support to the dollar-denominated gold. During the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled that another large adjustment could be coming at the next policy meeting in September, but it would be dependent on the incoming data.

Furthermore, the Fed officials also acknowledged that economic indicators have softened and noted signs of a slowdown. This suggests that the US central bank would slow the pace of its interest rate hikes, which continued weighing on the greenback. That said, a goodish rebound in the US Treasury bond yields is acting as a tailwind for the buck and might keep a lid on the non-yielding gold, at least for the time being.

Apart from this, the risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - could further contribute to capping gains for gold. Even from a technical perspective, the $1,745-$1,750 region has been acting as a stiff resistance since the early part of July. This further makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move.

Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of the Advance Q2 GDP report later during the early North American session. The world's largest economy is expected to have grown by 0.4% annualized pace during the April-June period and avoid a technical recession. This would validate the Fed's view that the US economy isn't currently in a recession and provide a modest lift to the USD.

This, along with the US bond yields, would influence the USD price dynamics and drive the XAUUSD. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities around gold.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK TO OUR EXPERT TEXT NOW: MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Down Over an Expected Fed Hike

Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia while investors braced for a 75-basis-point interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week.

Gold futures edged down 0.16% to $1,724.55 by 12:25 AM ET (4:25 AM GMT). Gold prices have dropped more than $350, or 16% since scaling above the $2,000-per-ounce level in early March due to the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and the dollar’s rally.

The dollar which normally moves inversely to gold, inched down on Monday morning, while the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered near eight-week lows.

“The fall in U.S. yields on the back of global recessionary concerns has underpinned gold,” said SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes.

“Today, we could be seeing a touch of indecision ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee which is likely to underscore the Fed dilemma of fighting inflation at the expense of growth.”

Investors are now keeping an eye on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting which concludes on Wednesday, and markets are pricing in a 75-bp interest rate hike.

The European Central Bank (ECB) joined its global peers to bring down soaring inflation and raised interest rates by 50 bps. It is expected to deliver another hike until inflation falls back to its 2% target.

In other precious metals, silver fell 0.57%, platinum edged down 0.20%, and palladium fell 1.59%.

Want to direct talk to our experts, Join now: MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

 Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD path of least resistance appears down

Gold price gathers strength to retest 11-month troughs below $1,700.

US dollar stalls correction as risk sentiment turns cautious ahead ECB, BOJ.

XAUUSD faces a wall of resistance despite falling Treasury yields.

Gold price continues to mire in yearly troughs so far this week, lacking a clear directional bias amid repricing of the Fed rate hike expectations. Investors also refrain from placing any aggressive bets on the bright metal ahead of the ECB and BOJ monetary policy announcements. The BOJ is widely expected to stick to its ultra-loose monetary policy while the ECB may surprise markets with a 50 bps rate hike. More hawkish than expected ECB could weigh negatively on the non-interest-bearing gold price. Meanwhile, the lack of first-tier US macro data combined with the Fed’s ‘blackout’ period leaves the metal traders in search of a significant catalyst. Meanwhile, the XAUUSD price will remain at the mercy of risk trends, with the US earnings season underway.

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the downside appears more compelling for Gold price, as it faces a wall of resistance should any recovery momentum pick up steam.

A dense cluster of healthy resistance levels is stacked up around $1,711, where the SMA10 four-hour, Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and Bollinger Band four-hour Middle coincide.

The next hurdle is seen at the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1,714, above which bulls will need vigor to take out the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and 38.2% one-week at $1,716.

The previous day’s high of $1,719 will be the level to beat for XAU bulls.

Alternatively, strong support awaits at $1,704, which is the convergence of the pivot point one-day S1 and pivot point one-month S3.

The next relevant downside target is aligned at the previous week’s low of $1,698.

Further south, the pivot point one-day S3 at $1,693 will come to the rescue of gold buyers.

Get 90% accurate signals,Join now:MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD breaks below $1,800, bears gearing up to challenge YTD low

Gold Price was dragged below the $1,800 mark at the end of the week, its lowest level since May 16.

Aggressive Fed rate hike bets and a goodish pickup in the USD demand exerted some pressure.

Recession fears and the risk-off mood did little to lend any support to the safe-haven XAUUSD.

Gold Price prolonged this week's bearish trend and witnessed heavy follow-through selling on Friday, marking the fifth successive day of a negative move. The downward trajectory extended through the early part of the European session and dragged spot prices to the lowest level since May 16, around the $1,792 region in the last hour.

Flows were driven away from gold by the prospects for more aggressive rate hikes by the US central bank. These were reaffirmed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on Wednesday, which said that the US economy is well-positioned to handle tighter policy. Speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Powell added that the Fed remains focused on getting inflation under control and the market pricing is pretty close to the dot plot. Apart from this, broad-based US dollar strength further exerted downward pressure on the dollar-denominated commodity.

This combination of factors overshadowed the prevalent risk-off environment which tends to benefit the safe-haven precious metal. The market sentiment remains fragile amid concerns that rapidly rising rates and tightening financial conditions would pose challenges to global economic growth. Adding to this, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has been fueling fears about a possible recession. One would have thought this would embolden gold bulls but in reality it did little to impress investors or ease the bearish pressure surrounding gold.

The anti-risk flow was reinforced by the recent slump in the US Treasury bond yields, which, again, failed to lend any support to the yellow metal. With the latest leg down, spot prices now seem to have confirmed a fresh bearish breakdown below the $1,800 round-figure mark. Furthermore, effortless acceptance below the said handle might have already set the stage for an extension of the depreciating move towards the YTD low, around the $1,780 region. The downward trajectory could now extend towards the next relevant support near the $1,755-$1,750 zone. From here, traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for a fresh impetus.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD bears eye $1,820 and $1,816 as next targets

Gold Price rebound lacks follow-through bias, as Treasury yields firm up.

USD stays sluggish amid a better mood, ahead of NATO, ECB Forum.

Oil price surge keeps the demand for XAUUSD underpinned.

Optimism prevails, pointing to a turnaround Tuesday for the financial markets, as the previous week’s upbeat global momentum returns and caps the broad US dollar recovery. Investors, however, remain wary ahead of the key NATO Summit and a policy panel of the heads of the Fed, BOE and ECB due later this week. The sluggish price action in the dollar is helping Gold Price recoup a part of Monday’s sharp decline. The upside in the yellow metal lacks traction, however, as the US Treasury yields resume their gradual recovery mode amid lingering recession fears and an aggressive Fed rate-hike track. Buyers also remain cautious, as a slew of key US economic data are due for release later this week, which may prompt markets to re-price the hawkish Fed expectations, in turn impacting gold valuations.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that Gold Price is approaching the strong support around $1,820, where the previous day’s low and the lower band of the four hour Bollinger Band merge.

Selling interest may pick up steam below the latter, exposing the convergence of the previous week’s low, monthly Fibonacci 23.6% retracement and daily S1 pivot point merge at $1,816.

The line in the sand for gold optimists is seen at the weekly S1 pivot point at $1,813.

On the flip side, bulls need to find a strong foothold above the $1,829 barrier, which is the confluence of the 5-day SMA, and the daily and weekly Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level.

The next stop for bulls is aligned at the 10-day SMA at $1,832, above which the daily Fibonacci 61.8% level at $1,835 will come to sellers’ rescue.

Further up, the intersection of the weekly Fibonacci 61.8% level and the R1 daily pivot point at $1,837 will offer stiff resistance.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD jumps to fresh daily high, bulls flirt with 200-DMA ahead of Powell

Gold attracted some dip-buying on Wednesday and rallied nearly $20 from a multi-day low.

The risk-off impulse, sliding US bond yields, modest USD pullback extended some support.

Hawkish Fed expectations kept a lid on any meaningful upside ahead of Powell’s testimony.

Gold reversed an intraday dip to the $1,823 region, or a four-day low touched earlier this Wednesday and shot to a fresh daily peak during the mid-European session. The XAUUSD was last seen trading around the $1,840 region, with bulls now awaiting a convincing break through the very important 200-day SMA.

The overnight optimistic move in the equity markets fizzled out rather quickly amid worries that a more aggressive policy tightening by major central banks would pose challenges to the global economy. Adding to this, the supply chain disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war and the recent COVID-19 outbreak in China have been fueling fears about a potential recession. This continued weighing on investors' sentiment and triggered a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade, which, in turn, offered some support to the safe-haven gold.

The anti-risk flow was reinforced by a steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields and held back the US dollar bulls from placing aggressive bids. Apart from this, some repositioning trade ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee forced the USD to surrender its intraday gains, which further benefitted the dollar-denominated gold. That said, expectations that the Fed would hike interest rates at a faster pace to curb inflation kept a lid on any meaningful upside for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Hence, investors will closely scrutinize Powell's comments for fresh clues about the policy tightening path. This will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help determine the next leg of a directional move for gold. This makes it prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond a technically significant 200-DMA before traders start positioning for any further appreciating move for the XAUUSD.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD steadily climbs to $1,825 area, fresh daily high ahead of FOMC

Gold gained traction on Wednesday and snapped a two-day losing streak to a near one-month low.

Retreating US bond yields prompted some USD profit-taking and extended some support to the metal.

Hawkish Fed expectations might cap gains for the XAUUSD ahead of the key central bank event risk.

Gold attracted some buying on Wednesday and for now, has snapped a two-day losing streak to a near one-month low, around the $1,805 region touched the previous day. The XAUUSD built on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session and climbed to a fresh daily high, around the $1,826 region in the last hour.

Retreating US Treasury bond yields prompted traders to take some profits off their US dollar bullish bets, especially after the recent strong bullish run to a two-decade high. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that prompt some short-covering around the dollar-denominated commodity. That said, the attempted recovery move runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly and remains capped amid expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed.

Investors now seem convinced that the US central bank would tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace to combat stubbornly high inflation, which surged to a four-decade high in May. In fact, Fed fund futures indicate rising odds of a 75 bps rate hike at the conclusion of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday and another 75 bps hike in July. This should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the USD, which, in turn, might cap gains for the non-yielding gold.

Hence, the focus remains glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, due later during the US session. A 75 bps Fed rate hike move would be the biggest since 1994 and send shockwaves across asset classes, boosting the USD and lending some support to gold prices. In the meantime, traders might take cues from the US monthly Retail Sales figures, though any immediate market reaction is more likely to be short-lived.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD wavers in range around $1,850, levels to watch

Gold Price is struggling around the $1,850 area amid risk-off markets.

Record high inflation rate in the Euro area re-ignites growth concerns.

USD holds the bounce with yields, XAUUSD’s range play likely to extend.

Gold Price is adding to the previous losses while keeping its range around the $1,850 psychological level. The precious metal feels the heat from a broad US dollar rebound amid a sharp upturn in the Treasury yields. Markets remain in a risk-off mode, underpinning the dollar’s haven demand. The ongoing upsurge in oil prices and record-high inflation in the Euro area have re-ignited global growth worries, as central banks remain on a tightening spree. Against this backdrop, gold price is finding some comfort, limiting its move lower. Traders now look forward to the US Nonfarm payrolls release for a fresh direction in XAUUSD.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluences Detector shows that the Gold Price is gyrating around the $1,851 critical barrier, which is now acting as strong support. That price is the convergence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, SMA50 four-hour and the pivot point one-day S1.

If that breaks then the next safety net appears at the pivot point one-day S2 at $1,848.

Further south, the pivot point one-month S1 at $1,846 will challenge the bullish commitments.

The last line of defense for gold bulls is seen at $1,841, the confluence of the SMA200 one-day, the previous week’s low and the pivot point one-week S3.

On the upside, bulls need a firm break above the $1,856 supply zone, where the SMA5 one-day, Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and the previous high four-hour collide.

The next bullish target is aligned at $1,859, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and one-week.

The Fibonacci 23.6% one-week at $1,863 will guard the additional upside, opening doors for a test of the previous week’s high of $1,870.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast - XAUUSD rebounds towards $1,850 as DXY eases ahead of US inflation

Gold price manages to consolidate losses at three-month low ahead of the key US inflation data.

Mixed sentiment, DXY pullback recall buyers but Fedspeak, growth fears weigh on prices.

12-day-old megaphone formation, weekly resistance line also keep sellers hopeful even as softer US CPI can extend price recovery.

Gold Price is looking to extend its recovery from three-month lows of $1,836 in the European session, as it recaptures the psychological $1,850 barrier ahead of the critical US inflation data.

The recovery momentum in XAU/USD strengthens, as the US dollar index extends its pullback from above the 104.00 level, undermined by the relief rally seen across the global markets.

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose past 1.8% market consensus to 2.1% YoY whereas the Producer Price Index (PPI) crossed 7.7% expectations with the 8.0% yearly figures. As China is among the world’s top gold consumers, firmer inflation despite the coronavirus-led lockdowns underpins the hopes of the dragon nation’s future demand for the yellow metal.

Also favoring the prices could be headlines from Shanghai local authorities that mentioned no virus spread in eight districts.

On the same line were early Asian session comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic who mentioned that the US economy is strong and demand is high while also expecting the neutral rate at 2.0-2.5%.

Even so, Cleveland Fed President and FOMC member Loretta Mester recalled the market bears as she said, “They don't rule out a 75 basis points rate hike forever”.

Also challenging the gold buyers is China’s “Zero Covid Tolerance” policy despite the World Health Organization’s (WHO) push to ease the rigid activity restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing. The lockdowns in the world’s largest industrial player pose a serious threat to global growth, especially at a time when inflation fears are high.

Elsewhere, the tales of the Russia-Ukraine war and its likely negative implications also keep gold sellers hopeful. As per the latest updates, Europe needs to divert its gas flow from Russia which previously used to arrive via Ukraine.

Gold price: Four-hour chart

Amid these plays, the US 10-yer Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY) remain pressured around 2.99% whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains near the 4,000 level after a mixed closing on Wall Street.

Looking forward, the US CPI is expected to ease to 8.1% from 8.5%, and will be important to watch for fresh impulses. However, a major focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy figures which are likely to ease to 6.0% YoY versus 6.5% prior. Should the inflation figures refrain from easing for April, the US dollar will witness magnified buying, which in turn will drag XAU/USD towards a fresh multi-month low.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD treads water around $1,930, in search of fresh direction

• Gold price is keeping its weekly range trade intact around $1,930.
• US dollar, yields capitalize on increased bets of a 50-bps May Fed rate hike.
• Gold Price Forecast: Will XAU/USD close the week above critical 21-DMA at $1,935?

Gold price is flatlined while trading within the mid of this week’s range around $1,930 so far this Friday. The market sentiment has somewhat improved in European trading, which has triggered a pullback in the US dollar and the Treasury yields. Although the underlying concerns over the aggressive Fed’s tightening and the Western sanctions on Russia are likely to keep the dollar bulls hopeful amid a data-light US docket. The Fed commentary continued to back the case for a 50-bps rate hike in the May meeting, dulling the demand for the non-interest-bearing gold price. The bulls need a decisive close above the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,935 to kick start a fresh uptrend. Attention now turns towards the critical US inflation data due next week. Meanwhile, the sentiment around the dollar and yields will continue to have a significant impact on the bright metal.

Gold (XAU/USD) has tumbled below its principal cushion of $1,930.00 as the market participants are raising bets on settlement of the US dollar index (DXY) above the crucial resistance of 100.00. The precious metal is falling gradually in the Asian session after a mildly positive start on Friday.

The discussions over pushing the interest rate to its mean reversion by the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are underpinning the greenback against the yellow metal. A preliminary estimate of the yearly US Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 6.6%, which will release next week, is dictating the story of soaring inflation. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have narrated the neutral rate at 2.4% at which demand will not dampen and growth will not de-escalate. To shift the current interest rates to the neutral rate, the Fed has already announced one or more interest rate hikes by 50 basis points (bps) out of the six interest rate hikes to be announced this year.

The DXY is trading around 100.00, seeking a trigger that will drive the asset higher. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields are trading at 2.66%, at the press time and are looking to extend gains by overstepping a three-year high at 2.67%.

Get best #ENTER and #EXIT levels
Text us now: MONEY LIFE RESEARCH