Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD unlikely to move much further from the lows

Gold climbed toward $1,650 despite the hawkish Fed tone. However, the recovery is set to stall, strategists at Commerzbank report.

Gold under pressure following the hawkish remarks made by the Fed chair

“Fed Chair Jay Powell stressed that the speed of rate hikes was not so important anymore and that the key question was the level at which interest rates would finally peak. And this, Fed members now believe, looks set to be higher than they had assumed in September.”

“The Fed’s goal is to bring real interest rates into positive territory. This means that the key rate will remain at a high level until such time as the rate of inflation has fallen below it.”

“Generally speaking, the FOMC meeting turned out to be more hawkish than expected, which was then reflected in higher interest rate expectations and a firmer dollar and ultimately caused the Gold price to fall. Shortly before hitting its yearly low, Gold did a U-turn and began climbing again, though today’s US labour market report could put the brakes on its recovery again.”

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drops to key support amid stronger USD, Fed rate hike jitters

• Gold remains under heavy selling pressure for the fourth successive day on Monday.
• Aggressive Fed rate hike bets continue to boost the USD and weigh on the XAU/USD.
• The risk-off mood could lend some support ahead of this week’s key event/data risks.

Gold extends last week's retracement slide from the $1,730 region and continues losing ground for the fourth successive day on Monday. The downward trajectory remains uninterrupted through the first half of the European session and drags spot prices to key support at a one-week low, around the $1,678 region in the last hour.

Expectations that the Fed will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path lifts the US dollar to a one-and-half-week high, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the dollar-denominated gold. The robust US monthly jobs report released on Friday pointed to the resilient economy and gives the US central bank enough space to keep hiking rates at a faster pace to combat stubbornly high inflation.

In fact, the markets are now pricing in a greater chance of the fourth consecutive supersized 75 bps rate increase at the next FOMC policy meeting in November. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and further contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. Hence, the market focus remains on the FOMC minutes and the US consumer inflation data.

Investors will look for fresh clues about the Fed's future rate hike path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the USD and provide a fresh directional impetus to gold. Apart from this, traders, this week will take cues from the US monthly Retail Sales data. In the meantime, the prevalent risk-off mood could limit losses for the safe-haven XAU/USD amid holiday-thinned liquidity. In addition, gold has reached an important support level in the $1,670s, where it met with significant resistance prior to its breakout last week. This level is now likely to offer support to prices and provide a rallying point for bulls, although the extent of the support is difficult to determine, and traders should keep in mind that the short and medium-term bias remains to downside.

The market sentiment remains fragile amid worries about economic headwinds stemming from rapidly rising borrowing costs. Apart from this, a further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and renewed US-China trade jitters temper investors' appetite for riskier assets. That said, the lack of any buying interest around gold suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside, although a daily open or close below the current support ledge in the $1,670s would be required to confirm further downside to come.  

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes $1,700 as path of least resistance appears down 

Gold price reverses sharply amid an upturn in the yields and the US dollar.

Global tightening bets, recession fears continue to bode ill for the bullion.

XAU/USD eyes the $1,700 mark amid a bear cross and a wall of resistance levels.   

Gold price is looking to resume the recent downtrend, as sellers fight back control ahead of key US events and the ECB rate hike decision. The European energy crisis-led recession fears keep investors on the edge while driving yields higher globally. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields are roughly 2% higher on the day at around 3.25%, emerging as the main catalyst behind the dollar recovery and the renewed downside in the non-yielding bullion. The bright metal also remains weighed down by hopes for continued tightening by major global central banks, as they remain committed in their fight to tame inflation. Further, a looming bear cross on the metal’s daily chart also keeps the downside favored for sellers. All eyes now remain on the US ISM Services PMI, ECB policy announcement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for fresh trading impetus.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price is challenging powerful support at around $1,711, which is the convergence of the previous month’s low and Fibonacci 23.6% one-day.

A sustained break below the latter will put the previous day’s low of $1,709 under threat. The next support zone is seen around $1,703, where the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and pivot point one-day S2 merge.

Sellers will then test the $1,700 mark, the round figure and the pivot point one-day S3.

On the flip side, a dense cluster of healthy resistance levels is stacked up around $1,713, the intersection of the SMA10 four-hour, Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and the SMA5 one-day.

The previous day’s high of $1,716 will offer further resistance to bulls on their road to recovery. The next relevant upside target is aligned at the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day at $1,720.

The confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week and pivot point one-day R3 at $1,724 will be the level to beat for buyers.

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to see modest weakness for the remainder of 2022, before recovering in 2023

Gold prices have declined by 3.6% year-to-date. Strategists at ABN Amro have downgraded their gold price outlook, expecting modest weakness for the remainder of 2022, before prices will recover in 2023. 

New year-end forecasts are $1,700 in 2022 and $1,900 in 2023

“We expect modestly lower gold prices for the remainder of this year. There is a crucial support area layered at $1,680-$1,700. We expect these levels to be tested again and prices could move below these, albeit only temporary. Our new forecast for the end of 2022 is $1,700.”

“For 2023, the gold price outlook is more positive. Not only do we expect the US dollar to weaken, but we also expect the Fed to start cutting rates in the second half of 2023. On top of that, we expect lower US real yields. As a result, gold prices are likely to rebound next year. Having said that, we do not believe that gold prices will set a new high though.” 

“Our new year-end 2023 forecast is $1,900.”

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears target $1,720 as US dollar keeps reins

Gold price extends its losing streak into the sixth straight day on Monday.

US dollar resumes its rally as risk-aversion gathers steam amid surging energy costs.

XAU/USD needs to crack $1,730 to extend the sell-off towards $1,720 and $1,714.  

Gold price remains under intense selling pressure at the start of the week, extending the previous week’s bearish momentum into the sixth straight day. The relentless demand for the safe-haven US dollar could be linked as the main underlying factor behind the latest sell-off in the bright metal. Investors witness flight to safety amid hawkish Fed expectations and surging energy costs in Europe and Asia after Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline announced its closure due to maintenance end of this month. Global central banks’ fight to tame inflation is likely to prolong amid rising food and energy prices, which dents risk appetite while weighing negatively on the non-interest bearing yellow metal. Gold traders shrug off the minor pullback in the US Treasury yields, as the dollar will likely remain the preferred safety bet heading into the much-awaited Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled later this week.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price is eyeing a fresh downswing towards the Bollinger Band one-day Lower at $1,720 should bears yield a sustained break below the $1,730 barrier. That level is the intersection of the pivot point one-day S3 and pivot point one-week S1.

The next critical support area is located around $1,714, the Fibonacci 232.6% one-month.

Alternatively, the metal could rebound towards the pivot point one-day S2 at $1,737 should bears face exhaustion.

Further up, the pivot point one-day S1 at $1,743 will come into the picture. Bulls will then look to recapture the previous day’s low of $1,746.

The last line of defense for XAU sellers is envisioned at the confluence of the SMA200 four-hour and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day around $1,750.

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Gold Price Forecast: $1,816 keeps luring XAUUSD sellers 

Gold Price rebounds from six-day lows but buyers remain wary.

Upbeat mood keeps USD bears in control despite a pause in the yields sell-off.

Central banks' rate hike bets cool off amid looming recession risks.

The R-word is back on the radars, prompting markets to scale back aggressive rate hike expectations from major central banks worldwide. Cooling hawkish expectations is helping calm investors’ nerves, weighing negatively on the safe-haven US dollar at the expense of gold price. However, stabilizing US Treasury yields, following the recent retreat, are keeping the further upside elusive in the bright metal. The market’s perception of risk sentiment, in the facing of lingering inflation and recession worries will continue to drive the US dollar price action, in turn, influencing XAUUSD. Attention now turns towards next Monday’s US Durable Goods data and the ECB Forum in Sintra, where the central banks’ heads are likely to participate in a panel discussion on the monetary policy.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD remains depressed below $1,850, bulls trying to defend 200-DMA

Gold met with a fresh supply on Friday and snapped a two-day winning streak.

Resurgent USD demand, the risk-on impulse turned out to be a key bearish factors.

The ongoing decline in the US bond yields offered some support and helped limit further losses.

Gold struggled to capitalize on its strong gains recorded over the past two trading sessions and witnessed some selling on the last day of the week. The XAUUSD remained depressed through the first half of the European session and was last seen trading just below the $1,850 level. Bulls, however, have managed to defend support at a technically significant 200-day SMA, warranting some caution before positioning for any further losses.

The US dollar caught aggressive bids and reversed a part of this week's retracement slide from a two-decade high amid hawkish Fed expectations. Investors seem convinced that the US central bank will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path to combat stubbornly high inflation. The bets were reaffirmed by the Fed's so-called dot plot, which showed that the median projection for the federal funds rate stood at 3.4% for 2022 and 3.8% in 2023. This, in turn, assisted the USD to snap a two-day losing streak to a one-week low and dented demand for the dollar-denominated gold.

Apart from this, the risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - further undermined the safe-haven precious metal. That said, the ongoing decline in the US Treasury bond yields offered some support to the non-yielding gold. Investors took comfort from the fact that the Fed forecasted the rate to decline to 3.4% in 2024 and 2.5% over the long run. This, in turn, dragged the US bond yields away from over a two-decade high touched earlier this week, which, along with mounting recession fears, could help limit deeper losses for gold, at least for now.

Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate for a fresh impetus later during the early North American session. Traders will further take cues from the US bond yields, the USD price dynamics and the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities around gold on the last day of the week.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD steadily climbs to $1,825 area, fresh daily high ahead of FOMC

Gold gained traction on Wednesday and snapped a two-day losing streak to a near one-month low.

Retreating US bond yields prompted some USD profit-taking and extended some support to the metal.

Hawkish Fed expectations might cap gains for the XAUUSD ahead of the key central bank event risk.

Gold attracted some buying on Wednesday and for now, has snapped a two-day losing streak to a near one-month low, around the $1,805 region touched the previous day. The XAUUSD built on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session and climbed to a fresh daily high, around the $1,826 region in the last hour.

Retreating US Treasury bond yields prompted traders to take some profits off their US dollar bullish bets, especially after the recent strong bullish run to a two-decade high. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that prompt some short-covering around the dollar-denominated commodity. That said, the attempted recovery move runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly and remains capped amid expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed.

Investors now seem convinced that the US central bank would tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace to combat stubbornly high inflation, which surged to a four-decade high in May. In fact, Fed fund futures indicate rising odds of a 75 bps rate hike at the conclusion of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday and another 75 bps hike in July. This should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the USD, which, in turn, might cap gains for the non-yielding gold.

Hence, the focus remains glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, due later during the US session. A 75 bps Fed rate hike move would be the biggest since 1994 and send shockwaves across asset classes, boosting the USD and lending some support to gold prices. In the meantime, traders might take cues from the US monthly Retail Sales figures, though any immediate market reaction is more likely to be short-lived.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD wavers in range around $1,850, levels to watch

Gold Price is struggling around the $1,850 area amid risk-off markets.

Record high inflation rate in the Euro area re-ignites growth concerns.

USD holds the bounce with yields, XAUUSD’s range play likely to extend.

Gold Price is adding to the previous losses while keeping its range around the $1,850 psychological level. The precious metal feels the heat from a broad US dollar rebound amid a sharp upturn in the Treasury yields. Markets remain in a risk-off mode, underpinning the dollar’s haven demand. The ongoing upsurge in oil prices and record-high inflation in the Euro area have re-ignited global growth worries, as central banks remain on a tightening spree. Against this backdrop, gold price is finding some comfort, limiting its move lower. Traders now look forward to the US Nonfarm payrolls release for a fresh direction in XAUUSD.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluences Detector shows that the Gold Price is gyrating around the $1,851 critical barrier, which is now acting as strong support. That price is the convergence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, SMA50 four-hour and the pivot point one-day S1.

If that breaks then the next safety net appears at the pivot point one-day S2 at $1,848.

Further south, the pivot point one-month S1 at $1,846 will challenge the bullish commitments.

The last line of defense for gold bulls is seen at $1,841, the confluence of the SMA200 one-day, the previous week’s low and the pivot point one-week S3.

On the upside, bulls need a firm break above the $1,856 supply zone, where the SMA5 one-day, Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and the previous high four-hour collide.

The next bullish target is aligned at $1,859, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and one-week.

The Fibonacci 23.6% one-week at $1,863 will guard the additional upside, opening doors for a test of the previous week’s high of $1,870.

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Gold Price Forecast - XAUUSD rebounds towards $1,850 as DXY eases ahead of US inflation

Gold price manages to consolidate losses at three-month low ahead of the key US inflation data.

Mixed sentiment, DXY pullback recall buyers but Fedspeak, growth fears weigh on prices.

12-day-old megaphone formation, weekly resistance line also keep sellers hopeful even as softer US CPI can extend price recovery.

Gold Price is looking to extend its recovery from three-month lows of $1,836 in the European session, as it recaptures the psychological $1,850 barrier ahead of the critical US inflation data.

The recovery momentum in XAU/USD strengthens, as the US dollar index extends its pullback from above the 104.00 level, undermined by the relief rally seen across the global markets.

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose past 1.8% market consensus to 2.1% YoY whereas the Producer Price Index (PPI) crossed 7.7% expectations with the 8.0% yearly figures. As China is among the world’s top gold consumers, firmer inflation despite the coronavirus-led lockdowns underpins the hopes of the dragon nation’s future demand for the yellow metal.

Also favoring the prices could be headlines from Shanghai local authorities that mentioned no virus spread in eight districts.

On the same line were early Asian session comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic who mentioned that the US economy is strong and demand is high while also expecting the neutral rate at 2.0-2.5%.

Even so, Cleveland Fed President and FOMC member Loretta Mester recalled the market bears as she said, “They don't rule out a 75 basis points rate hike forever”.

Also challenging the gold buyers is China’s “Zero Covid Tolerance” policy despite the World Health Organization’s (WHO) push to ease the rigid activity restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing. The lockdowns in the world’s largest industrial player pose a serious threat to global growth, especially at a time when inflation fears are high.

Elsewhere, the tales of the Russia-Ukraine war and its likely negative implications also keep gold sellers hopeful. As per the latest updates, Europe needs to divert its gas flow from Russia which previously used to arrive via Ukraine.

Gold price: Four-hour chart

Amid these plays, the US 10-yer Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY) remain pressured around 2.99% whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains near the 4,000 level after a mixed closing on Wall Street.

Looking forward, the US CPI is expected to ease to 8.1% from 8.5%, and will be important to watch for fresh impulses. However, a major focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy figures which are likely to ease to 6.0% YoY versus 6.5% prior. Should the inflation figures refrain from easing for April, the US dollar will witness magnified buying, which in turn will drag XAU/USD towards a fresh multi-month low.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles near one-week low, below $1,950 ahead of Powell

• Gold Price is back in the red, as sellers keep lurking just below $1,960.
• An uptick in the US bond yields acted as a headwind for the commodity.
• All eyes remain on Fed Chair Powell’s and US President Biden’s speech.

Gold struggled to capitalize on the previous day's modest rebound from over a one-week low and came under some renewed selling pressure on Thursday. The XAU/USD remained on the defensive through the early European session and was last seen trading just below the $1,950 level.

The mild recovery in the US Treasury yields on increased Fed’s hawkishness is acting as a headwind for spot prices. Gold could see further downside risks in the near term on rising bets for multiple 50 bps Fed rate hikes, which had sent the US 10-year real yields into the positive territory for the first time in two years.

Apart from this, the risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - weighed on traditional safe-haven assets, including gold. That said, the ongoing US dollar retracement slide from its highest level since March 2020 could lend some support to the dollar-denominated commodity.

The main event risk for Gold Price on Thursday remains Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Summit. His comments will hold the key, as they come just before the bank enters its "blackout" period.

Powell may fail to excite the dollar bulls and could emerge as a boon for Gold Price, as he may refrain from hinting at an aggressive tightening outlook after the US core inflation eased a bit in March.

The sentiment on global markets will be also closely followed for its impact on the safe-haven Gold amid uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine war, concerning inflation levels that threaten the economic recovery worldwide.

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 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD treads water around $1,930, in search of fresh direction

• Gold price is keeping its weekly range trade intact around $1,930.
• US dollar, yields capitalize on increased bets of a 50-bps May Fed rate hike.
• Gold Price Forecast: Will XAU/USD close the week above critical 21-DMA at $1,935?

Gold price is flatlined while trading within the mid of this week’s range around $1,930 so far this Friday. The market sentiment has somewhat improved in European trading, which has triggered a pullback in the US dollar and the Treasury yields. Although the underlying concerns over the aggressive Fed’s tightening and the Western sanctions on Russia are likely to keep the dollar bulls hopeful amid a data-light US docket. The Fed commentary continued to back the case for a 50-bps rate hike in the May meeting, dulling the demand for the non-interest-bearing gold price. The bulls need a decisive close above the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,935 to kick start a fresh uptrend. Attention now turns towards the critical US inflation data due next week. Meanwhile, the sentiment around the dollar and yields will continue to have a significant impact on the bright metal.

Gold (XAU/USD) has tumbled below its principal cushion of $1,930.00 as the market participants are raising bets on settlement of the US dollar index (DXY) above the crucial resistance of 100.00. The precious metal is falling gradually in the Asian session after a mildly positive start on Friday.

The discussions over pushing the interest rate to its mean reversion by the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are underpinning the greenback against the yellow metal. A preliminary estimate of the yearly US Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 6.6%, which will release next week, is dictating the story of soaring inflation. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have narrated the neutral rate at 2.4% at which demand will not dampen and growth will not de-escalate. To shift the current interest rates to the neutral rate, the Fed has already announced one or more interest rate hikes by 50 basis points (bps) out of the six interest rate hikes to be announced this year.

The DXY is trading around 100.00, seeking a trigger that will drive the asset higher. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields are trading at 2.66%, at the press time and are looking to extend gains by overstepping a three-year high at 2.67%.

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