Comment on Gold on February 28, 2022:

 Last week, we saw very strong fluctuations, Gold price bounced up quickly to 1974 and then fell sharply to 1877, closing the session with a bearish candle around 1889. At the beginning of the session.  this morning's trading World gold opened the first session of the week with about GAP increasing to nearly 1930 at the opening session and then decreasing after that.  With the Russian military campaign in Ukraine along with the tension of the US and its allies, it is very difficult at this time for Gold to fall deeply, so in my opinion, the possibility of Gold will continue to gain momentum.  get a raise.

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On the H4 time frame, Gold is showing signs of completing the GAP and if Gold returns to around 1900, this is the price range we can consider buying in with this precious metal with a target of 193x.  Another note is that currently, the amplitude of Gold at this time will be quite large, so everyone balances the volume and capital for safer transactions.

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Dollar retreats as risk appetite returns; U.S. inflation dials back Fed view

 MEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar dipped on Friday, giving back some of the strong gains from the previous day, as investors gauged the latest round of sanctions on Russia and U.S. inflation data was seen as unlikely to make the Federal Reserve overly aggressive at its next policy meeting.

The greenback on Thursday notched its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 10 to reach 97.74, its highest since June 30, 2020. However, it gave back some gains after U.S. President Joe Biden hit Russia with a wave of sanctions following that country's invasion of Ukraine, but refrained from imposing sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin and disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT international banking system.

U.S. economic data showed consumer spending increased more than expected in January even as price pressures mounted, with annual inflation hitting rates last seen four decades ago, although the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.6% in January after rising 0.5% in December.

"The revisions to income and spending data shows the economy was very resilient to Omicron and to high oil prices. Hopefully, the situation with Russia is short-lived, but even if oil prices stay elevated, the economy should have enough fundamental strength to tolerate high energy prices," said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

"The inflation numbers weren’t great, but at least the month-on-month inflation numbers aren’t moving higher," Jacobsen said. "That should take some wind out from under the wings of the most hawkish Fed members."

The dollar index fell 0.459%, with the euro up 0.59% to $1.1257. The euro fell to $1.105 on Thursday, its weakest against the greenback since June 1, 2020.

Even with Friday's pullback, the dollar was still on track for a third straight week of gains.

The increased risk appetite was evident in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 up more than 2% after staging a late session rally on Thursday.

Before Thursday's jump -- which sent the dollar to its highest level since June 30, 2020 -- the greenback had been subdued in recent weeks, as rising tensions in Ukraine fueled expectations the Fed may be less aggressive in tightening policy as it attempts to rein in inflation.

Expectations for at least a 50-basis-point interest rate hike at its March meeting have fallen to 25% from around 34% a day ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

In the central bank's latest monetary policy report to Congress, the Fed warned inflation could last longer than anticipated should labor shortages and fast-rising wages continue.

The European Union is planning a third round of sanctions against Moscow, an EU official said on Friday, minutes after Ukraine's president pleaded with the bloc for faster, more forceful steps to punish Russia for its invasion of his country.

Policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) said the situation in Ukraine could cause the ECB to slow its exit from stimulus measures.

Investors see only a 4% chance the ECB will boost its benchmark interest rate by 10 basis points at its March 10 policy meeting. [IRPR]

The Russian rouble strengthened 1.67% versus the greenback to 83.04 per dollar after hitting hit a record low of 89.986 the day before.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.09% versus the greenback at 115.65 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.34, up 0.19% on the day.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last rose 1.4% to $38,937.21.

Ethereum last rose 2.58% to $2,703.53.

 European Commission President Says Financial Sanctions Target 70% of Russian Banks!

 Von Der Leyen said the steps agreed by EU leaders include financial sanctions, targeting 70% of Russian banks and key state-owned companies, including in the defense sector.

 - Sanctions against Russia will increase Russia's borrowing costs and increase inflation

Russia's rouble also recovered some ground, trading at around 82.8 per dollar

 The euro steadied on Friday following Thursday's sharp declines after Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine unleashed the biggest attack on an European state since World War Too.

The dollar flattened against most currencies as markets walked back some of the tumultuous moves from the previous day.

Russia's rouble also recovered some ground, trading at around 82.8 per dollar, having hit a record low of 89.986 per dollar the day before.

"FX markets are slightly calmer this morning as the world tries to come to terms with war in Europe," said Chris Turner

Global Head of Markets at ING.

The size and prominence of the sanctions on Russian banks and the size of their FX deposits may take some time to percolate through, he said.

The United States, the European Union and some other countries responded to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with a wave of sanctions impeding Russia's ability to do business in major currencies along with sanctions against banks and state-owned enterprises.

Fighting continued on Friday though risk sentiment across markets improved after the shock in the previous 24 hours, with the pan European stocks index bouncing back around 1%. [MKTS/GLOB]

The euro was last at $1.1175, edging 0.15% lower against the dollar, having touched its lowest $1.1106 since May 2020 on Thursday.

Sterling also recovered some ground from Thursday's tumble to trade flat against the dollar at $1.3389, having hit a 2022 low of $1.3272 on Thursday.

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The safe-haven dollar index steadied against a basket of currency at 97.162 after climbing to its highest level since June 2020 the previous day.

As well as the direct fallout of the war in Ukraine, currency traders were trying to assess its impact on monetary policy around the world.

Policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) said the situation in Ukraine could cause the ECB to slow its exit from stimulus measures.

Meanwhile, investors and some U.S. officials said the war would likely slow but not stop approaching interest rate hikes.

Federal Reserve policymakers have been publicly sparring over whether to begin with a 25 or 50 basis point rate hike at its March meeting.

"We expect the consequences (of the conflict) to translate into a somewhat less hawkish stance from major central banks – tilting the Fed towards a 25 basis hike in March and keeping the ECB on the fence," said Invesco strategists in emailed comments.

rouble bonds over accusations of Moscow meddling in the U.S. election.

  - Western capitals have started putting in place fresh restrictions on Russia's sovereign debt as they seek to ratchet up pressure on Moscow over the conflict with Ukraine.

The United States and its allies introduced an initial round of sanctions after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine on Monday. A string of harsher measures is expected after he launched a full-scale invasion on Thursday.

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Access to Russian bonds had become increasingly restricted. U.S. sanctions imposed following the 2014 annexation of Crimea made future Russian dollar-denominated debt ineligible for many investors and key indexes.

In April 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden barred U.S. investors from buying new Russian rouble bonds over accusations of Moscow meddling in the U.S. election.

Here is an overview of what measures have already been added and what impact they might have:

WHAT ARE THE NEW RESTRICTIONS ON SOVEREIGN DEBT?

Washington announced a ban on U.S. entities participating in secondary markets for both rouble and non-rouble debt issued by Russia's central bank, the national wealth fund and the finance ministry after March 1.

The European Union agreed new sanctions that will target the ability of Moscow to access the bloc's capital and financial markets as well as services, and ban EU investors from trading in Russian state bonds. Canada's government said it would bar its citizens from engaging in purchases of Russia's sovereign debt.

Britain said on Wednesday it would stop Russia selling sovereign debt in London - one of the world's major financial centres for such transactions. The measures would require additional legislation, according to Western officials, and clearing transactions would also be affected. However, there was no indication on whether Britain would stop trade in outstanding sovereign debt.

The coordinated measures are aiming to curb Russia's ability to raise new foreign financing and plug some loopholes. Despite the limitations in the United States, Russia had been able to issue bonds in European markets.

Analysts at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) calculate that Russia has issued a combined 3.5 billion in euro-denominated bonds since 2020.

IMPLICATIONS FOR INVESTORS

Analysts see limited implications for holders of existing hard-currency bonds.

They, however, predicted the new U.S. sanctions on local sovereign bonds, so-called OFZs, would lead to the creation of two different classes of OFZs.

In response to the U.S. curbs on local sovereign bonds, the finance ministry said it would offer only new series of OFZs starting from Feb. 22 and stop tapping issues registered before this date "to lower risks of forced selling of circulating state securities by particular categories of foreign investors."

JPMorgan said that bonds which had been sold since mid-June had a 10-25 bps premium over existing issues, though this divergence faded, likely due to bonds being added to the most widely used emerging fixed income benchmark.

"However, premia may be more persistent this time given that new OFZs will not be index eligible," said Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc at JPMorgan. "As long as local banks can freely transact with foreigners the basis between the two curves should remain relatively narrow (within 20-30bp)."

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CAPITAL FLOWS?

Latest data shows that Russia has just under $40 billion in dollar and euro-denominated bonds outstanding, with just over half held by foreign investors. Positioning in those bonds by foreign investors looked light and the most underweight in two decades, according to a JPMorgan emerging market client survey.

Meanwhile foreign investors held around 18% or 2.8 trillion roubles ($34.4 billion) of overall outstanding OFZs, according to ING.

The new U.S. sanctions are not expected to trigger forced selling in OFZs. However, capital flows have shown investors ditched the bonds as tensions over Ukraine have escalated since late last year.

"Russia is now experiencing the fifth consecutive month of foreign portfolio outflows from OFZ," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING. "In October-January it totalled $5.4 billion, and since the beginning of February, some $1.1 billion were withdrawn."

Russia currently has a weight of 6.8% in JPMorgan's local sovereign debt benchmark, though given the U.S. measures would see no new issues added while existing ones would mature, the weighting was expected to shrink to below 5% in just over three years, the bank projected.

JPMorgan, which runs some of the most widely-used hard and local currency fixed income indexes in emerging markets, said on Wednesday it was reviewing the impact the new U.S. curbs may have on its emerging market benchmarks.

($1 = 81.3255 roubles)

✍️ Analysis of Oil on 24/02/2022:

🔺 About news:
 - Oil prices rose 5% on news of Russian military activity.  At noon on February 24, the price of Brent oil futures at one point exceeded $102 per barrel before falling slightly to $101.  Meanwhile, the price of WTI oil also increased by nearly 5%, to nearly 97 USD per barrel.

 - Analysts said that if the situation in Ukraine continues to be "hotter", it will trigger a wave of sell-offs in the stock market.  Investors will flock to safe havens like gold.  Oil prices will also skyrocket, even reaching 150 USD/barrel.

 - Armed conflict not only poses a risk to the facilities of the mining, refining and petrochemical industries, but also causes supply to be tighter if Russia responds to sanctions by "locking the valve" of oil.

 - Europe, which imports 25% of Russian oil and 40% of gas, will be severely affected if the Kremlin cuts off the supply of 3 million barrels of oil per day to this region.

 "Russia meets 30-40% of the gas needs of the whole of Europe every year.  No other country can replace it, even providing gas in the form of liquefied petroleum gas,” Al-Kaabi said.  “LNG trading contracts are signed in the form of a permanent, clear shipping location.  It is impossible to replace this huge amount of gas with LNG immediately.”

 👉 In short, through the above news, we can see that the picture of the crisis in energy is pushed to the climax and the possibility of a further increase of oil is completely happening.  On the technical chart, the nearest price level that oil is heading to is 105-110$ and if there is a slight decline to around 90-94$, this is the ideal price area for us to establish a buy position.  with the same goal as above!

📕 Comment on Gold on February 23, 2022:

 

- In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold, after bouncing up to 1913, fell to 1891, then fluctuated in two directions in 1894-1905, closing the day session with a bearish candle around 1898. Although it closed with a bearish candle, the decline in Gold was not strong and the criticized between the US and Russia related to the Ukraine crisis boosted safe-haven demand for the precious metal. So in my personal opinion Gold will still be supported uptrend in today's session. - Currently around 1893-1898 is the closest support area for this precious metal, where investors can establish a buy position with a safe target around 1912 and expect it to be around 1912. 192x in today's trading session.

Series on Russia-Ukraine Tensions:

 On Wednesday, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan is imposing sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine, and considers Moscow's moves an unacceptable violation of  with Ukraine's sovereignty and international law.

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 Japan's sanctions include banning the issuance of Russian bonds in Japan and freezing the assets of certain Russian individuals as well as restricting travel to Japan, Kishida said.

 Western nations on Tuesday imposed new sanctions on Russian banks and elites after Moscow sent troops into breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine

Prediction on Gold on 22/02/2022:

- In yesterday's trading session Gold only fell slightly to 1887 then bounced back to around 1905, closing the day session with a bullish candle around 1903. With the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalating. The high again makes the prospect of reconciliation between the parties dim at the moment, so in my opinion, Gold will continue to be pushed up in today's session.

- Switching to a smaller time frame of H4 we can see that Gold is unlikely to have a big correction and the 1905-1902 price zone is the closest support area to push this precious metal up with a safe target. will be 1916-1921, expect to be 193x in today's trading session.

📕 Comment on Gold on February 21, 2022:

- In the last trading week, precious metal Gold had a good week of growth from 1844 to 1902, closing the week session with a bullish candle around 1898, this is the highest price range that Gold reached. within the past 7 months. With Gold showing such good upward force, in my opinion in the coming time this precious metal will continue to conquer the next peaks.

 - Early this morning Gold bounced slightly to the 1908 price zone, this is the resistance zone of precious metal Gold and the possibility of a slight downward correction, so we can establish a sell position with this metal with The safe target is around 1885. Here we will wait for the price reaction to see whether to buy or not, then I will have an update.

Comment on Gold on February 18, 2022:

 - In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold rebounded strongly from 1867 to 1901, closing the day session with a strong bullish candle that broke the previous resistance area of 1878.  With this overwhelming bullish force, in my opinion, precious metal Gold will continue to gain momentum in today's session.

 - Moving to the H4 time frame Gold is currently having a slight downward correction and I expect Gold to fall around 1880-1885, this is the closest support price to the precious metal Gold that we can establish.  establish a buy position with a safe target around 1902 and expect 1910-1915.

EURO DOWNS AND SOLD AS WATER

 tterjee

LONDON (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar treaded water on Thursday and the Japanese yen held on to its earlier gains after a Russian news report of mortar fire in eastern Ukraine jangled market nerves and boosted the appeal of safe haven bets.

Russia-backed rebels accused Ukrainian forces of shelling their territory in violation of agreements aimed at ending conflict in the contested Donbass area, the RIA news agency said, a report later denied by Ukraine.

While the greenback retreated from its Asian highs after the news broke, investors remained wary that Russia will invade the Ukraine again despite rising optimism at the start of this week that a diplomatic solution would be found to prevent conflict.

Against a basket of its rivals, the dollar steadied at 95.747 after rising above 96 in early Asian trading.

But in a sign that markets were not panicking yet, the rouble remained below a November 2020 high of 80 hit last month, while bond yields were only modestly higher.

"This strongly suggests that market participants remain optimistic overall that conflict will be avoided," MUFG strategists said in a client note.

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The geopolitical news dwarfed the Fed's minutes of its January meeting, where policymakers agreed that it was time to tighten monetary policy but also that decisions would depend on a meeting-by-meeting analysis of data, according to minutes of the most recent policy meeting.

Short-dated U.S. Treasury yields fell and the yield curve steepened after the minutes as traders reassessed the probability of a 50 bps hike at the Fed's March meeting. Money markets were pricing in a 72% likelihood of a 50 bps hike next month compared to 80% at the start of the week.

The euro rebounded from earlier lows after falling as much as 0.4% after the Ukraine news. But Ukraine's denial and the location of the reported attack within already contested territory calmed things and the euro last sat at $1.1382.

The yen and the Swiss franc clung on to earlier gains, up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively versus the greenback.

📕 Prediction on Gold on February 17, 2022:

- In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold went right in its analysis when it bounced up from 1850 to 1872, closing yesterday's session with a bullish candle around 1869. With Gold in today's trading session. Yesterday, it regained its upward momentum after having 1 previous decline, in my opinion, it is likely that in today's session, Gold will still be supported by this increase.

 - Switching to the H4 time frame, we can see that the increase of the last 3 candles is relatively good and if in the beginning of today's session, Gold has a slight correction around 1862, this is an opportunity. so that ace can establish a buy position with a safe target in the "old top" zone 1872-1878.

EURO POUNDS HIGH ON FRIDAY

 LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices recouped losses on Wednesday as investors weighed conflicting statements on the possible withdrawal of some Russian troops from around Ukraine amid tight global supplies and recovering fuel demand.

Brent traded at $93.86 a barrel around 1000 GMT, up 62 cents, or 0.6%, having slid 3.3% overnight after Russia announced a partial pullback of its troops near Ukraine.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $92.64 a barrel, up 62 cents, or 0.6%, after the contract ended Tuesday's session down 3.6%.

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Both benchmarks hit their highest since September 2014 on Monday, with Brent touching $96.78 and WTI reaching $95.82.

The price of Brent jumped 50% in 2021, while WTI soared about 60%, as a global recovery in demand from the COVID-19 pandemic strained supply.

Moscow announced a partial pullback of troops from Ukraine's borders, but NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday the alliance had not seen any de-escalation, but rather that Russia was continuing its military build-up.

"The risk of a full scale invasion has receded a bit. But we are unlikely to move out of the current status quo," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB in Oslo.

Beyond Ukraine tensions, the oil market remains tight and prices could still be on course for a move towards $100 a barrel.

"The price action has been an incredibly bullish one-way-street higher since just before Christmas. You don't see this kind of price action unless the market is very tight," Schieldrop added.

Investors await weekly U.S. oil inventories data from the Energy Information Administration due at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT).

U.S. crude and distillates inventories may have fallen by 1.5 million to 1.6 million barrels last week, a Reuters poll showed. [EIA/S]

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a drop in crude, gasoline and distillate stocks last week, according to market sources on Tuesday. [API/S]

(Additioanl reporting by Chen Aizhu and Florence TanEditing by Clarence Fernandez and Mark Potter

📕 Comment on Gold on February 16, 2022:

 - After touching the right analytical price zone of 1878 precious metals Gold dropped quite strongly to 1844, closing the day session with a bearish candle around 1853. This is also the closest support area for metals. gold and in my personal opinion the possibility of Gold recovering slightly in the early hours of this morning.

 - Looking at the H4 chart frame, we can see that Gold is currently leveling off at MA20 and in my opinion Gold can recover to 1858-1861 we can establish a buy position with this precious metal with the aim spend as above. After coming here, the possibility that Gold will experience downward pressure, I will update later.

📕Analysis on Gold on February 15, 2022:

- In yesterday's trading session, it was quite unfortunate that Gold had not touched the limit price range, the price only dropped to 1850 then bounced up to 1874 and closed the day session with a bullish candle around 1871. Gold's rebounding force This is something we can all see, but currently Gold is facing a resistance zone around 1876-1878. In my personal opinion, we will wait for Gold to correct so that we can establish a buy position in today's session. - The nearest support area for this precious metal is around 1858-1861. We can wait until Gold corrects to be able to establish a buy position with the target to break "old 1878 high.

REBOUND OF EURO

 LONDON (Reuters) - The euro rebounded on Tuesday, nearly erasing all of Monday's losses, after reports that some Russian troops in areas near Ukraine have started returning to their bases.

Against the greenback, the single currency climbed 0.4% to $1.1346, and within striking distance of Monday's high of $1.1369 as European stock futures rebounded on the news.

Some troops in Russia's military districts adjacent to Ukraine are returning to bases after completing drills, Russia's defence ministry was quoted as saying, a move that could de-escalate frictions between Moscow and the West.

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"While any news about a potential de-escalation is welcome, I think the markets will want to see something more concrete before judging the crisis to be over," said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital.

"By this I think it will require the removal from the border of sufficient troop numbers or military hardware that makes an invasion materially more difficult to undertake,"

Brewing geopolitical tensions had kept a lid on the euro's gains in recent days even as the European Central Bank joined its central bank peers in signaling a hawkish turn in its monetary policy at a meeting this month.

The euro tumbled to a near two-week low on Monday after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on citizens to fly the country's flags from buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on Feb. 16, a date that some Western media have cited as a possible start of a Russian invasion.

For now, investors greeted the news with relief, pushing up the currencies of economies that would be most affected by the conflict including the pound, euro and the Russian rouble while typical safe-haven shelters like the yen and the Swiss franc weakened.

Away from geopolitics, U.S. Federal Reserve officials continuing to spar over how aggressively to begin upcoming interest rate increases at their March meeting.

But the dollar failed to get a fresh lift from the comments with an index weakening 0.3% versus its rivals.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was 3.4% higher, trading around $44,000.

(Reuters) -The dollar rose on Monday along with the yen and Swiss franc as investors rushed into safe-haven assets on fears that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine.

Russia could make such a move at any time and might create a surprise pretext for an attack, according to the United States, which reaffirmed on Sunday a pledge to defend "every inch" The dollar index rose 0.4% to 96.328, its highest since Feb. 1.

of NATO territory. Moscow denied any such plans and has accused the West of 

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Euro-dollar one-month implied volatility was at 7.6%, from below 6% at the end of January.

The rouble was 0.1% lower at 77.20 against the dollar, after tumbling to its lowest since January 28 on Friday as investors ditched Russian assets.

Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) analysts pointed out that “European dependency on Russian energy makes the cyclical economic performance of the euro zone particularly vulnerable in case of an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.”

The euro was down 0.3% at $1.1318, after hitting its lowest level since Feb. 3 at $1.1305.

The euro weakened on Friday when a rush into safe-haven assets overshadowed expectations for monetary policy tightening from the European Central Bank.

ECB president Christine Lagarde had also dampened some of the bullish euro sentiment by reiterating that any policy action will be gradual.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its January meeting minutes on Wednesday, but analysts said central bank action was unlikely to return to the spotlight until the risk of an escalation over Ukraine recedes.

A rush into safe-haven assets has propped up the Japanese yen since Friday, while the Bank of Japan successfully defended its key bond yield target on Monday, holding the line on its ultra-loose monetary policy.

The yen rose 0.3% to 115.16 against the dollar, and 0.5% against the euro.

“These two currencies (the U.S. dollar and the yen) – as well as the Swiss franc – should remain bid until, and if, we get indications that a diplomatic solution is in sight,” ING analysts said, adding that “markets are adopting a wait-and-see approach on geopolitics at the start of the new week.”

We “flag quite significant downside risks for exposed currencies - directly the rouble and indirectly all pro-cyclical currencies and especially the European ones - should tension escalate further,” ING said.

The Swiss franc rose 0.4% against the euro to 1.0452, its highest since Feb. 3.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was down 1% at around $42,116.

DAILY NEWS HIGHLIGHTS! On Date: 14 February 2022

📌 Saudi Arabia transfers Aramco shares worth $80 billion to state fund. The state remains the largest shareholder in Saudi Aramco after the transfer process, as it retains more than 94% of the company’s shares, the statement said.

📌 The Federal Reserve’s rate debate and Ukraine tensions could jolt markets in the week ahead. Producer price inflation data Tuesday and Fed minutes Wednesday will be important releases. 

📌 Crypto Lender BlockFi to Pay $100 Million In Settlement with SEC, States. Settlement with SEC and states could come as soon as next week. BlockFi faces probes into selling unregistered securities.  

📌 Russians Have Already Started Hybrid War, Ukraine Says. For Russia to create havoc in Ukraine, it may not need to launch an all-out invasion. Ukrainian officials say that Moscow is stepping up a destabilization campaign involving cyberattacks, economic disruption and, most recently, hundreds of false bomb threats. 

📌 Omicron’s Threat to the Global Economy Runs Through China. The U.S. and Europe are learning to live with the virus, but Beijing’s zero-Covid strategy could lead to recurring lockdowns and limit exports the rest of the world relies on.

Analysis on Gold on 11/02/2022:

- In the US session last night after the US inflation-CPI data was released Gold ran in two directions when it fell to 1821, then increased to 1841, then fell back again, closing the day session with a candle.  declined at around 1826. With Gold closing the day as a bearish candle but still at a high price, I still prioritize the bullish option with this precious metal.

- Moving to the H4 time frame, we can see that the downward pressure is still quite strong around the 1835 price area so if we establish a buy position, this is a safe profit taking point.  The nearest support price zone for this precious metal Gold is 1818-1823. If in today's session Gold corrects to this zone, we can establish a buy position with the above target.

INFLANATION RISK AT THE MARKET

 RUSSELS (Reuters) - Euro zone economic growth will be slower than earlier expected this year because of a new wave of COVID-19 infections, high energy prices and continued supply-side disruptions, while inflation will be much higher, the European Commission said.

In its regular economic forecasts, the EU executive arm said gross domestic product in the 19 countries sharing the euro would grow 4.0% this year and 2.7% in 2023.

The forecast is a cut compared to last November, when the Commission forecast 4.3% growth in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023 and is close to the latest view of the International Monetary Fund, which expects growth of 3.9% this year and 2.5% in 2023.

"Multiple headwinds have chilled Europe's economy this winter: the swift spread of Omicron, a further rise in inflation driven by soaring energy prices and persistent supply-chain disruptions," European Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said. "With these headwinds expected to fade progressively, we project growth to pick up speed again already this spring."

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The Commission expects inflation this year will be 3.5%, well above the European Central Bank's target of 2.0%, and much higher than its own forecast from November of 2.2%. This is also a more pessimistic forecast than that of the ECB from December, when the bank projected inflation at 3.2% this year.

Worried by the longer than earlier expected surge in consumer prices, the ECB has taken a hawkish turn and started preparing markets for the end of its unconventional stimulus with some hawkish board members calling for a rate hike already this year.

But the Commission, like the IMF, forecast inflation would slow again next year to 1.7%, below the ECB's target, so a potential rate rise would come just as price growth slows again. The ECB's own inflation in December was 1.8% for 2023.

"Price pressures are likely to remain strong until the summer, after which inflation is projected to decline as growth in energy prices moderates and supply bottlenecks ease. However, uncertainty and risks remain high," Gentiloni said.

The Commission said risks to the growth outlook were even as the COVID-19 infection wave could have a longer lasting impact and bring fresh disruptions to supply chains, but also household consumption could grow more strongly and investment, thanks to the EU recovery fund, could generate stronger activity.

Inflation could turn out higher if more cost pressures are passed on from producers to consumers and if that boosts the likelihood of wage growth to compensate.

"Risks to the growth and inflation outlook are aggravated by geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe," the Commission said referring to the risk of Russian military aggression against Ukraine.