USD/CHF Price Analysis: Hovering around the top of the 0.9600-0.9660 range, eyeing 0.9700

 

• USD/CHF bounces from weekly lows, set to finish the week with gains of 0.73%.
• From a daily chart perspective, the USD/CHF has nowhere to go; it would likely remain in consolidation.
• Near-term, a symmetrical triangle in the USD/CHF 4-hour chart targets 0.9767.

The USD/CHF stages a comeback after hitting weekly lows around 0.9577 earlier in the day and is about to erase Thursday’s losses as the USD/CHF aims towards the 100-DMA, following hawkish remarks by the US Federal Reserve Chief, Jerome Powell. The USD/CHF is trading at 0.9659, up by almost 0.20%.

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Consolidation in the daily chart will keep the USD/CHF trading within the 0.9600-0.9690 range, as shown by this week’s price action. Worth noting that the support/resistance levels are the 100 and 50-day EMAs, each at 0.9657 and 0.9614, respectively. Therefore, unless the exchange rate decisively breaks above/below the range, the USD/CHF might remain subdued.

NZD/USD declines to over three-week low, around mid-0.6800s amid modest USD strength

 

• NZD/USD witnessed selling for the third straight day and retreated further from the YTD high.
• The Fed’s hawkish outlook, elevated US bond yields underpinned the USD and exerted pressure.
• A positive risk tone might cap the safe-haven USD and limit losses for the perceived riskier kiwi.

The NZD/USD pair continued losing ground through the mid-European session and dropped to over a three-week low, around mid-0.6800s in the last hour.

The pair prolonged this week's sharp retracement slide from the 0.7035 region, or the highest level since November 2021 and witnessed some follow-through selling for the third successive day on Friday. The downward trajectory was exclusively sponsored by the blowout US dollar rally, bolstered by the Fed's hawkish outlook.

In fact, the March 15-16 FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed that policymakers were prepared to hike interest rates by 50 bps at upcoming meetings. Moreover, there was a general agreement about reducing the Fed's massive near $9 trillion balance sheet at a maximum pace of $95 billion per month to tighten financial conditions.

Comment on Gold on February 28, 2022:

 Last week, we saw very strong fluctuations, Gold price bounced up quickly to 1974 and then fell sharply to 1877, closing the session with a bearish candle around 1889. At the beginning of the session.  this morning's trading World gold opened the first session of the week with about GAP increasing to nearly 1930 at the opening session and then decreasing after that.  With the Russian military campaign in Ukraine along with the tension of the US and its allies, it is very difficult at this time for Gold to fall deeply, so in my opinion, the possibility of Gold will continue to gain momentum.  get a raise.

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On the H4 time frame, Gold is showing signs of completing the GAP and if Gold returns to around 1900, this is the price range we can consider buying in with this precious metal with a target of 193x.  Another note is that currently, the amplitude of Gold at this time will be quite large, so everyone balances the volume and capital for safer transactions.

REBOUND OF EURO

 LONDON (Reuters) - The euro rebounded on Tuesday, nearly erasing all of Monday's losses, after reports that some Russian troops in areas near Ukraine have started returning to their bases.

Against the greenback, the single currency climbed 0.4% to $1.1346, and within striking distance of Monday's high of $1.1369 as European stock futures rebounded on the news.

Some troops in Russia's military districts adjacent to Ukraine are returning to bases after completing drills, Russia's defence ministry was quoted as saying, a move that could de-escalate frictions between Moscow and the West.

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"While any news about a potential de-escalation is welcome, I think the markets will want to see something more concrete before judging the crisis to be over," said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital.

"By this I think it will require the removal from the border of sufficient troop numbers or military hardware that makes an invasion materially more difficult to undertake,"

Brewing geopolitical tensions had kept a lid on the euro's gains in recent days even as the European Central Bank joined its central bank peers in signaling a hawkish turn in its monetary policy at a meeting this month.

The euro tumbled to a near two-week low on Monday after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on citizens to fly the country's flags from buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on Feb. 16, a date that some Western media have cited as a possible start of a Russian invasion.

For now, investors greeted the news with relief, pushing up the currencies of economies that would be most affected by the conflict including the pound, euro and the Russian rouble while typical safe-haven shelters like the yen and the Swiss franc weakened.

Away from geopolitics, U.S. Federal Reserve officials continuing to spar over how aggressively to begin upcoming interest rate increases at their March meeting.

But the dollar failed to get a fresh lift from the comments with an index weakening 0.3% versus its rivals.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was 3.4% higher, trading around $44,000.

DAILY NEWS HIGHLIGHTS! On Date: 14 February 2022

📌 Saudi Arabia transfers Aramco shares worth $80 billion to state fund. The state remains the largest shareholder in Saudi Aramco after the transfer process, as it retains more than 94% of the company’s shares, the statement said.

📌 The Federal Reserve’s rate debate and Ukraine tensions could jolt markets in the week ahead. Producer price inflation data Tuesday and Fed minutes Wednesday will be important releases. 

📌 Crypto Lender BlockFi to Pay $100 Million In Settlement with SEC, States. Settlement with SEC and states could come as soon as next week. BlockFi faces probes into selling unregistered securities.  

📌 Russians Have Already Started Hybrid War, Ukraine Says. For Russia to create havoc in Ukraine, it may not need to launch an all-out invasion. Ukrainian officials say that Moscow is stepping up a destabilization campaign involving cyberattacks, economic disruption and, most recently, hundreds of false bomb threats. 

📌 Omicron’s Threat to the Global Economy Runs Through China. The U.S. and Europe are learning to live with the virus, but Beijing’s zero-Covid strategy could lead to recurring lockdowns and limit exports the rest of the world relies on.