At 24h tonight, the Fed will publish the minutes of the FOMC's monetary policy meeting

 

At 24h tonight, the Fed will publish the minutes of the FOMC's monetary policy meeting.  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously said that the Fed will set a limit on its balance sheet cuts at its March meeting. Additionally, Fed chief Brainard said the Fed could quickly shrink the board.  balance sheet since May, and it is expected that the shrinking pace of the balance sheet will be much faster than the previous recovery. Therefore, expect the minutes of tonight's monetary policy meeting.  basically digested.  Market focus remains on Ukraine and Russia situation and inflation expectations.  According to NBC News, the US and G7 will announce new sanctions against Russia on Wednesday.  New US sanctions against Russia will include a ban on new investments in Russia, increased sanctions on Russian financial institutions and state-owned enterprises, and measures  sanctions against Russian government officials and their family members

After falling to 1970 precious metal Gold has shown signs of recovering back to around 2009, closing yesterday's session around 1996.After falling to 1970 precious metal Gold has shown signs of recovering back to around 2009, closing yesterday's session around 1996.

 📕 Comment on Gold on 11/03/2022:

 - After falling to 1970 precious metal Gold has shown signs of recovering back to around 2009, closing yesterday's session around 1996. This shows that the downward pressure of Gold shows signs of slowing down.  In addition to the current developments and news, there is still no sign of any signs of the war cooling down, de-escalating as the Russian army continues to move towards the capital Kyiv and open more.  attacks on major cities of Ukraine.  In my personal opinion, the possibility of Gold will still be pushed up in today's trading session.

 - On the h4 time frame we can see the closest support for this precious metal is around the 1973-1982 range.  Here, investors can establish a buy position with a safe target around the 2008-2015 threshold.

Russian rouble falls to record lows after ratings downgrades

The Russian rouble slid further on Thursday, hitting record lows against the dollar and euro, after ratings agencies Fitch and Moody's (NYSE:MCO) downgraded Russia's sovereign debt to "junk" status citing the impact of Western sanctions.

At 0830 GMT, the rouble was more than 10% weaker against the dollar at 117.5 and had lost over 7% against the euro to trade at 124.1 on the Moscow Exchange, marking the first time the rouble has traded above 110 to the dollar in Moscow.

The Russian central bank imposed a 30% commission on foreign currency purchases by individuals on currency exchanges - a move brokers said appeared designed to curb demand for dollars - but that did little to halt the rouble's slide.

Russia's financial markets have been thrown into turmoil by sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine, the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two.

Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" that it says is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its southern neighbour's military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists.

Since Russian troops entered Ukraine on Feb. 24 the rouble is down close to 30% against the dollar, and analysts said on Thursday it would probably remain highly volatile. The government has ordered Russian exporters to convert 80% of their forex revenues into roubles to support the local currency, but people are still queuing up at banks to buy dollars as the rouble slumps.

Trading on the Moscow Exchange's stock section remained largely closed on Thursday, a fourth day of restrictions ordered by the central bank.

Overnight, Fitch said that U.S. and European Union sanctions prohibiting any transactions with the Bank of Russia would have a "much larger impact on Russia's credit fundamentals than any previous sanctions". Moody's said the severity of the sanctions "have gone beyond Moody's initial expectations and will have material credit implications".

S&P lowered Russia's rating to sub-investment grade last week.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed in response have led to dire warnings about the Russian economy, with the Institute of International Finance predicting a double-digit contraction in growth this year.

On Wednesday, index providers FTSE Russell and MSCI said they would remove Russian equities from all their indexes, after a top MSCI executive earlier this week called Russia's stock market "uninvestable".

Dollar retreats as risk appetite returns; U.S. inflation dials back Fed view

 MEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar dipped on Friday, giving back some of the strong gains from the previous day, as investors gauged the latest round of sanctions on Russia and U.S. inflation data was seen as unlikely to make the Federal Reserve overly aggressive at its next policy meeting.

The greenback on Thursday notched its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 10 to reach 97.74, its highest since June 30, 2020. However, it gave back some gains after U.S. President Joe Biden hit Russia with a wave of sanctions following that country's invasion of Ukraine, but refrained from imposing sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin and disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT international banking system.

U.S. economic data showed consumer spending increased more than expected in January even as price pressures mounted, with annual inflation hitting rates last seen four decades ago, although the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.6% in January after rising 0.5% in December.

"The revisions to income and spending data shows the economy was very resilient to Omicron and to high oil prices. Hopefully, the situation with Russia is short-lived, but even if oil prices stay elevated, the economy should have enough fundamental strength to tolerate high energy prices," said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

"The inflation numbers weren’t great, but at least the month-on-month inflation numbers aren’t moving higher," Jacobsen said. "That should take some wind out from under the wings of the most hawkish Fed members."

The dollar index fell 0.459%, with the euro up 0.59% to $1.1257. The euro fell to $1.105 on Thursday, its weakest against the greenback since June 1, 2020.

Even with Friday's pullback, the dollar was still on track for a third straight week of gains.

The increased risk appetite was evident in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 up more than 2% after staging a late session rally on Thursday.

Before Thursday's jump -- which sent the dollar to its highest level since June 30, 2020 -- the greenback had been subdued in recent weeks, as rising tensions in Ukraine fueled expectations the Fed may be less aggressive in tightening policy as it attempts to rein in inflation.

Expectations for at least a 50-basis-point interest rate hike at its March meeting have fallen to 25% from around 34% a day ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

In the central bank's latest monetary policy report to Congress, the Fed warned inflation could last longer than anticipated should labor shortages and fast-rising wages continue.

The European Union is planning a third round of sanctions against Moscow, an EU official said on Friday, minutes after Ukraine's president pleaded with the bloc for faster, more forceful steps to punish Russia for its invasion of his country.

Policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) said the situation in Ukraine could cause the ECB to slow its exit from stimulus measures.

Investors see only a 4% chance the ECB will boost its benchmark interest rate by 10 basis points at its March 10 policy meeting. [IRPR]

The Russian rouble strengthened 1.67% versus the greenback to 83.04 per dollar after hitting hit a record low of 89.986 the day before.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.09% versus the greenback at 115.65 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.34, up 0.19% on the day.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last rose 1.4% to $38,937.21.

Ethereum last rose 2.58% to $2,703.53.

Russia's rouble also recovered some ground, trading at around 82.8 per dollar

 The euro steadied on Friday following Thursday's sharp declines after Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine unleashed the biggest attack on an European state since World War Too.

The dollar flattened against most currencies as markets walked back some of the tumultuous moves from the previous day.

Russia's rouble also recovered some ground, trading at around 82.8 per dollar, having hit a record low of 89.986 per dollar the day before.

"FX markets are slightly calmer this morning as the world tries to come to terms with war in Europe," said Chris Turner

Global Head of Markets at ING.

The size and prominence of the sanctions on Russian banks and the size of their FX deposits may take some time to percolate through, he said.

The United States, the European Union and some other countries responded to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with a wave of sanctions impeding Russia's ability to do business in major currencies along with sanctions against banks and state-owned enterprises.

Fighting continued on Friday though risk sentiment across markets improved after the shock in the previous 24 hours, with the pan European stocks index bouncing back around 1%. [MKTS/GLOB]

The euro was last at $1.1175, edging 0.15% lower against the dollar, having touched its lowest $1.1106 since May 2020 on Thursday.

Sterling also recovered some ground from Thursday's tumble to trade flat against the dollar at $1.3389, having hit a 2022 low of $1.3272 on Thursday.

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The safe-haven dollar index steadied against a basket of currency at 97.162 after climbing to its highest level since June 2020 the previous day.

As well as the direct fallout of the war in Ukraine, currency traders were trying to assess its impact on monetary policy around the world.

Policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) said the situation in Ukraine could cause the ECB to slow its exit from stimulus measures.

Meanwhile, investors and some U.S. officials said the war would likely slow but not stop approaching interest rate hikes.

Federal Reserve policymakers have been publicly sparring over whether to begin with a 25 or 50 basis point rate hike at its March meeting.

"We expect the consequences (of the conflict) to translate into a somewhat less hawkish stance from major central banks – tilting the Fed towards a 25 basis hike in March and keeping the ECB on the fence," said Invesco strategists in emailed comments.

Series on Russia-Ukraine Tensions:

 On Wednesday, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan is imposing sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine, and considers Moscow's moves an unacceptable violation of  with Ukraine's sovereignty and international law.

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 Japan's sanctions include banning the issuance of Russian bonds in Japan and freezing the assets of certain Russian individuals as well as restricting travel to Japan, Kishida said.

 Western nations on Tuesday imposed new sanctions on Russian banks and elites after Moscow sent troops into breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine

EURO DOWNS AND SOLD AS WATER

 tterjee

LONDON (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar treaded water on Thursday and the Japanese yen held on to its earlier gains after a Russian news report of mortar fire in eastern Ukraine jangled market nerves and boosted the appeal of safe haven bets.

Russia-backed rebels accused Ukrainian forces of shelling their territory in violation of agreements aimed at ending conflict in the contested Donbass area, the RIA news agency said, a report later denied by Ukraine.

While the greenback retreated from its Asian highs after the news broke, investors remained wary that Russia will invade the Ukraine again despite rising optimism at the start of this week that a diplomatic solution would be found to prevent conflict.

Against a basket of its rivals, the dollar steadied at 95.747 after rising above 96 in early Asian trading.

But in a sign that markets were not panicking yet, the rouble remained below a November 2020 high of 80 hit last month, while bond yields were only modestly higher.

"This strongly suggests that market participants remain optimistic overall that conflict will be avoided," MUFG strategists said in a client note.

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The geopolitical news dwarfed the Fed's minutes of its January meeting, where policymakers agreed that it was time to tighten monetary policy but also that decisions would depend on a meeting-by-meeting analysis of data, according to minutes of the most recent policy meeting.

Short-dated U.S. Treasury yields fell and the yield curve steepened after the minutes as traders reassessed the probability of a 50 bps hike at the Fed's March meeting. Money markets were pricing in a 72% likelihood of a 50 bps hike next month compared to 80% at the start of the week.

The euro rebounded from earlier lows after falling as much as 0.4% after the Ukraine news. But Ukraine's denial and the location of the reported attack within already contested territory calmed things and the euro last sat at $1.1382.

The yen and the Swiss franc clung on to earlier gains, up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively versus the greenback.

EURO POUNDS HIGH ON FRIDAY

 LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices recouped losses on Wednesday as investors weighed conflicting statements on the possible withdrawal of some Russian troops from around Ukraine amid tight global supplies and recovering fuel demand.

Brent traded at $93.86 a barrel around 1000 GMT, up 62 cents, or 0.6%, having slid 3.3% overnight after Russia announced a partial pullback of its troops near Ukraine.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $92.64 a barrel, up 62 cents, or 0.6%, after the contract ended Tuesday's session down 3.6%.

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Both benchmarks hit their highest since September 2014 on Monday, with Brent touching $96.78 and WTI reaching $95.82.

The price of Brent jumped 50% in 2021, while WTI soared about 60%, as a global recovery in demand from the COVID-19 pandemic strained supply.

Moscow announced a partial pullback of troops from Ukraine's borders, but NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday the alliance had not seen any de-escalation, but rather that Russia was continuing its military build-up.

"The risk of a full scale invasion has receded a bit. But we are unlikely to move out of the current status quo," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB in Oslo.

Beyond Ukraine tensions, the oil market remains tight and prices could still be on course for a move towards $100 a barrel.

"The price action has been an incredibly bullish one-way-street higher since just before Christmas. You don't see this kind of price action unless the market is very tight," Schieldrop added.

Investors await weekly U.S. oil inventories data from the Energy Information Administration due at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT).

U.S. crude and distillates inventories may have fallen by 1.5 million to 1.6 million barrels last week, a Reuters poll showed. [EIA/S]

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a drop in crude, gasoline and distillate stocks last week, according to market sources on Tuesday. [API/S]

(Additioanl reporting by Chen Aizhu and Florence TanEditing by Clarence Fernandez and Mark Potter

REBOUND OF EURO

 LONDON (Reuters) - The euro rebounded on Tuesday, nearly erasing all of Monday's losses, after reports that some Russian troops in areas near Ukraine have started returning to their bases.

Against the greenback, the single currency climbed 0.4% to $1.1346, and within striking distance of Monday's high of $1.1369 as European stock futures rebounded on the news.

Some troops in Russia's military districts adjacent to Ukraine are returning to bases after completing drills, Russia's defence ministry was quoted as saying, a move that could de-escalate frictions between Moscow and the West.

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"While any news about a potential de-escalation is welcome, I think the markets will want to see something more concrete before judging the crisis to be over," said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital.

"By this I think it will require the removal from the border of sufficient troop numbers or military hardware that makes an invasion materially more difficult to undertake,"

Brewing geopolitical tensions had kept a lid on the euro's gains in recent days even as the European Central Bank joined its central bank peers in signaling a hawkish turn in its monetary policy at a meeting this month.

The euro tumbled to a near two-week low on Monday after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on citizens to fly the country's flags from buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on Feb. 16, a date that some Western media have cited as a possible start of a Russian invasion.

For now, investors greeted the news with relief, pushing up the currencies of economies that would be most affected by the conflict including the pound, euro and the Russian rouble while typical safe-haven shelters like the yen and the Swiss franc weakened.

Away from geopolitics, U.S. Federal Reserve officials continuing to spar over how aggressively to begin upcoming interest rate increases at their March meeting.

But the dollar failed to get a fresh lift from the comments with an index weakening 0.3% versus its rivals.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was 3.4% higher, trading around $44,000.

Dollar is Lower; Tight Range Ahead of Inflaton

 The U.S. dollar edged lower Wednesday, but remained in a tight range the day before the release of key inflation data which could confirm the start of the Federal Reserve’s policy tightening process. 

At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 95.580, after bouncing off a 2-1/2-week low of 95.136 reached Friday. 

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The speed and timing of when central banks across the world start to lift interest rates is the main factor driving the foreign exchange markets these days, and in particular the Federal Reserve given the importance of the U.S. economy to global growth.

The dollar received a boost at the end of last week with the release of a much stronger than expected jobs report, and Thursday’s consumer price index should cement expectations that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates next month.

The headline CPI is seen rising 0.5% on the month and 7.3% on the year in January, climbing to a four-decade high. Most in the market expected the Fed to lift interest rates by 25 basis points in March, a stronger print could offer support to those tipping a larger 50 basis point rise.

“We think that Friday’s payrolls numbers have helped build a floor under the dollar as markets should continue to cement their hawkish views on Fed tightening into the March meeting,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Elsewhere, EUR/USD edged lower to 1.1412, retreating from the highs seen last week after the European Central Bank policy meeting, as President Christine Lagarde tried Monday to rein in these expectations for aggressive action with growth in the Eurozone still fragile.

“We still think that the market pricing of more than 50bp of higher overnight rates, i.e. around two 25bp rate hikes, until the end of the year looks excessive,” said analysts at Nordea, in a note.

Additionally, GBP/USD edged lower to 1.3538, USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 115.45, after the pair briefly touched a one-month high, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD climbed 0.1% to 0.7148.

USD/PLN rose 0.1% to 3.9652 and EUR/PLN was flat at 4.5240, the day after Poland’s central bank lifted its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 2.75%, increasing interest rates for a fifth consecutive month to an almost nine-year high in an attempt to curb record inflation levels.

Later Wednesday, the Riksbank holds its latest policy-setting meeting, with the markets increasingly looking at still-dovish central banks given the recent shift in many of their peers.

“The Swedish economy has overall developed better than projected by the Riksbank,” said Nordea, and “the development is strong enough for the Riksbank to trim its balance sheet.”

“However, we do not expect inflation to remain high long enough for the Riksbank to consider a rate hike.”

EUR/SEK traded 0.1% lower at 10.4226 and USD/SEK also down 0.1% at 9.1358.

XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

 

FOREX ADVICE CLUB

XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Gold is trading near the bottom of a Pitchfork’s channel, drawn from the beginning of December, as depicted by the daily chart. That trendline intersects with a downslope trendline, drawn from August 2020 swing highs, acting as resistance for the non-yielding metal around $1,790-$1,800. Furthermore, the daily moving averages (DMAs) reside above the spot price. Therefore, XAU/USD is downward biased.

The first support level would be December 15, 2021,  swing low at $1,753. A breach of the latter would expose October 6, 2021, a daily low at $1746, followed by September 29, 2021, a low at $1,721

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Dollar Rises Like A Ferrari

 LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar climbed to multi-week highs against other major currencies on Thursday, bolstered by the prospects for faster and larger interest rate hikes in the months ahead.

As London trade got under way, the dollar index held at its highest levels since mid-December, while the euro languished at two-month lows of $1.11930. The greenback also hit its highest levels in more than a year against the New Zealand dollar and a seven-week peak against Australia's currency.

It rose broadly against emerging market currencies as money markets moved swiftly to all but price in as many as five Federal Reserve rate rises this year.

The Fed concluded a two-day meeting on Wednesday and Fed chief Jerome Powell said the central bank was in a mind to begin hiking in March to tame inflation.

He stressed that no decisions had been taken, but answering a question about whether the central bank would consider a 50-basis point hike, he replied without ruling it out.

He said instead that the economy seemed stronger than in the most recent hiking cycle and inflation, much hotter with room to raise rates without "threatening" the labour market.

U.S. gross domestic product figures later on Thursday are expected to show annual growth at its strongest since 1984.

"While the market had already been priced for hikes, a lot of people were assuming that the Fed might be more sensitive to the equity market, which it wasn't," said Jane Foley, head currency strategist at Rabobank. "Also the Fed's mention the balance sheet has focused markets' mind on the withdrawal of stimulus."

Foley added that a shake-out of overly long dollar positions earlier in the month had left the greenback in a position to react to the latest Fed signalling.

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YUAN HIT

The dollar's overnight leap of 0.7% against the yen was its sharpest in more than two months, while Treasury yields shot higher and stock markets took a fresh beating as rate-hike prospects resonated.

The dollar index was last at 96.825, holding near its highest levels since mid-December.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was last down about 0.5% at $0.7077, having fallen to as low as $0.7064, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.7% to $0.6597, a nearly 15-month trough.

Sterling fell to a one-month low at $1.3407 and was last down 0.4% on the day. Britain's pound is delicately balanced as traders keep a wary eye on Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is under pressure after attending parties during lockdowns, and on next week's Bank of England meeting. [GBP/]

Elsewhere, China's yuan took a hit as data showed Chinese industrial profits grew at their slowest pace in more than 18 months, bolstering the case for policy support.

The yuan was on course for its steepest daily drop in more than a month in onshore trade and last traded at 6.3632 to the dollar. Emerging markets currencies across Asia also logged losses.[CNY/][EMRG/FRX]

After a battering last week, cryptocurrencies have mostly held their ground in the wake of the Fed's meeting, though bitcoin was last down 2% at $36,049.

We know about BTC

Ethereum was trading at $2,838.02 by 06:34 (11:34 GMT) on the Index on Friday, down 10.02% on the day. It was the largest one-day percentage loss since November 26, 2021.

The move downwards pushed Ethereum's market cap down to $340.50B, or 18.63% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. At its highest, Ethereum's market cap was $569.58B.

Ethereum had traded in a range of $2,812.19 to $3,032.69 in the previous twenty-four hours.

Over the past seven days, Ethereum has seen a drop in value, as it lost 11.17%. The volume of Ethereum traded in the twenty-four hours to time of writing was $19.90B or 18.90% of the total volume of all cryptocurrencies. It has traded in a range of $2,812.1914 to $3,388.2209 in the past 7 days.

At its current price, Ethereum is still down 41.65% from its all-time high of $4,864.06 set on November 10, 2021.

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Elsewhere in cryptocurrency trading

Bitcoin was last at $38,698.3 on the Investing.com Index, down 8.20% on the day.

Tether was trading at $1.0003 on the Investing.com Index, a gain of 0.00%.

Bitcoin's market cap was last at $735.81B or 40.26% of the total cryptocurrency market cap, while Tether's market cap totaled $78.29B or 4.28% of the total cryptocurrency market value.

weekly Overview on Cryptocurrencies

MARKET VIEW

Weekly changes: BTCUSD –6.80%

BTCUSD has already dropped 32.5% from its November all-time high of 69,095.24. The pair fixed the closing price of the week at 46,830.27.

BEARISH TRIGGERS

The pair declined due to new potential restrictions. The BoE's Governor issued a warning against crypto assets since the central bank doesn't consider them as currencies in the widely anticipated meaning. Later, the Russian central bank joined the anti-crypto campaign, not supporting its circulation in the country. BTCUSD fell below 45,500 upon the news.

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