Saturday 31 July 2021

Central bank rundown as AUDCAD sell bias opens up

 Trouble down under

On the face of it, there was not much change in July. No rate hikes are expected until actual inflation is within the 2-3% range and supportive monetary conditions (low rates etc) are to be maintained in order to support a return to full employment and for inflation to be consistent with this target. The labor market is still, like June's meeting, not expected to be tight enough to spur higher age growth (and therefore inflation with it) until 2024. The economic recovery is still regarded as stronger than 'earlier expected and is forecast to continue. The three-year yield target remained the same keeping to the April 2024 bond as its 3-year yield target instead of pushing it further down the line to the November 2024 bond. Bond purchases were extended until mid-November, but reduced by $1 billion a week. So, a more confident meeting on balance from the RBA.

The takeaway

The central scenario remains that the condition for a lift in the cash rate will not be met until 2024". The data the RBA want to see is inflation in the 2-3% range and spurred on by wages growth that exceeds 3%. A temporary spike in inflation is not stated to be enough to move the RBA for now.

COVID-19 resurgence

Headwinds now remain for the Australian dollar right now as the nation struggles to manage the rising delta variant. Australia's New South Wales Premier says that he will tighten COVID-19 lockdown rules in the worst impacted areas of Sydney. The sharp rise of the Delta variant has resulted in a number of strict lockdowns in Australia and that looks set to continue. The RBA is meeting next week and Westpac sees that the RBA may now increase their tapering levels to $6 billion per week.

This is especially the case with the recent dip in Iron ore prices this last week.

European Central Bank, President Christine Lagarde, -0.50%, Meets September

Dovish tilt in the context.

The meeting on July 23 kept interest rates kept unchanged and both the size of the bond purchases (PEPP) were unchanged at €1.85 trillion and AP purchases are continuing at the speed of €20 billion a month. Going into the ECB meeting there were expectations that, after the ECB's strategic review, the ECB would be revealing a more dovish hand. This was hinted at in the run-up to the meeting by Christine Lagarde who said that the PEPP could 'change' into something else. However, on Friday, July 16 a sources report said that, due to disagreement, the bond purchases would be left unchanged/not mentioned until September's meeting. This would have marked a shift from the June 10th meeting where sources piece revealed that three ECB board members were in favor of bond tapering.

'Marginal' disagreement

Christine Lagarde noted in the press conference that there was some 'marginal disagreement'.It was not surprising as within the GC are fiscal conservatives like Germany and the more liberally minded Italians, so getting an agreement was always going to be tough. Germany's Weidmann & Belgium's Wunsch opposed the ECB's new guidance according to Bloomberg/sources as it signaled a commitment to lower rates for longer. In addition to these two members, sources note that several more voiced objections due to the length of commitment and a lack of clarity. The ECB will accept an overshoot of inflation which they expect to be temporarily higher. Remember, they now have a symmetric 2% target. Some members wanted to aim for 'at least 2% inflation, not just 2% inflation.

The takeaway?

The ECB did not deny the dovish expectations, only disappointed with a lack of an action at their last meeting. It looks like setting up for a lower for longer message in September, but with internal disagreement. The path of least resistance is to see it as euro bearish until proven otherwise.

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Friday 30 July 2021

Rising oil prices boosted by rising stock markets and improved demand outlook

 [10:33 AM, 7/30/2021] +65 3165 7233: Oil prices posted their biggest one-week gain on Thursday, as investors expected strong demand.  New York crude oil futures rose 1.7%.  US stocks rose to record highs;  in the second quarter, US GDP growth was slower than expected and household spending posted its biggest increase in decades, highlighting demand for oil and other commodities;  Crude oil prices were also supported by a weaker US dollar.


 TD Bart Melek, head of commodities and equities strategy, said that there is almost no doubt that risk appetite has increased across the board, which is certainly boosting the market.


 Oil prices fluctuated in July and are likely to post a second-month decline since October. Rising production and a rebound in the new crown epidemic have put pressure on;  The spread of delta strains has led to the re-implementation of restrictions in some areas.  It is expected that global markets will remain tight into the end of the year.


 At the same time, investors are still paying attention to the financial reports of the US oil industry.  Although oil companies maintain discipline and focus on shareholder returns, rising oil prices can encourage increased production;  Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at Bank of America Wealth Management, said that it is only a matter of time before output increases in the US, not that it will or will not;


 West Texas Intermediate September futures rose $1.23 to $73.62 a barrel;  Brent oil for September delivery rose $1.31 to close at $76.05 per barrel.  The contract expires on Friday.

[10:34 AM, 7/30/2021] +65 3165 7233: US dollar drops to one-month low on dovish Fed tone and weaker-than-expected US GDP data


 The US dollar fell to a one-month low on Thursday. A day before the Federal Reserve announced that the US job market still needed to "make some progress" before support measures.  economic support is withdrawn, the US dollar continues to gain momentum in a month has lost momentum.


 Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA Americas, said: "The strength of the US dollar against the euro appears to be over, as the economy slows to make significant progress in the job market.  and the Fed seems a long way from scaling back its debt purchases."


 The US dollar index is still up 1.6% since the Fed's June meeting, after the Fed switched to a hawkish stance.  The US GDP data released on Thursday gave little support to the index.


 The data showed that despite the strong growth of the US economy in the second quarter thanks to large-scale government support, the growth rate remained lower than analysts expected.


 On Thursday, the US Commerce Department announced last quarter's quarterly GDP growth rate of 6.5%, much lower than the 8.5% forecasted by economists surveyed by Reuters.  .


 Simon Harvey, senior forex market analyst at Monex Europe, said, “Due to the stability of the risk environment and the market digesting Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks yesterday, the dollar  The US dollar was under pressure today and interest rate GDP growth in the second quarter was almost two percentage points lower than expected.  This has barely alleviated the pressure on the dollar.


 “If the yield curve continues to slope slowly and risk appetite persists, the dollar decline could accelerate over the next few weeks,” OANDA’s Moya said.

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📕 Comment on Gold on 30/07/2021

In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold rebounded quite strongly, the price increased from 1806 to 1832 ($26) and closed with a bullish candle around 1828. With a breakout of the multi-day accumulation zone recently.  If it goes up, it is likely that in the coming time, the main trend of precious metal Gold in my opinion is to increase, so we will be inclined to buy up.


Switching to the shorter-term timeframe H4 we can see that this precious metal is currently facing a short-term resistance around 1830-1834.  Here, I think the possibility of precious metal Gold will correct slightly so we can continue to go up so we can establish a short sell position here and wait for a signal to buy up.  Gold precious metal's support zone in turn will be around 1823-1815.

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Thursday 29 July 2021

📕 Comment on Gold on July 29, 2021

At the end of the session yesterday, precious metal Gold did not change much as the price still moved within the cumulative sideways range from July 21, 2021 to present.  After falling to 1793, the gold price was pushed up again.  Last night's meeting of the Fed did not have much change and in my opinion we still continue to trade in the sideways range of Gold.



We establish a sell position when Gold reaches the price range 1810-1815 and buy up when the price reaches around 1793.

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Wednesday 28 July 2021

Check out the news happening in the last 24 hours

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - US stocks ended five consecutive sessions of gains, silver hit a four-month low.

 U.S. home prices hit record highs.

 - North Korean Central News Agency: North and South Korea will restart all communication lines.

 - The IMF raised the projected growth rate of the US economy in 2021.

 - The European Central Bank will publish economic forecasts and conduct policy discussions in September.

 - Nearly 3,000 new confirmed cases of Covid19 in Tokyo on the 27th, a new high since the outbreak.

 - Earnings data for many US stock companies exceeded expectations.


 2️⃣ Financial facts and data today

 - Australian second quarter CPI annual rate

 - Germany August Consumer Confidence Index Gfk

 - Switzerland July Suisse Economic Expectations Index / CFA

 - Canadian CPI June every year;  Monthly wholesale June in the US

 - EIA report for the week ending May 23rd

 - At the next day, the Federal Reserve FOMC publishes the interest rate resolution and policy statement

 - At the next day, Fed Chairman Powell held a press conference.

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Tuesday 27 July 2021

Yesterday's main news

  Gold closes below $1,800, Bitcoin suddenly surges.

 - U.S. new home sales unexpectedly fell to new lows since April 2020.

 - US Rep. Portman: 90% of the infrastructure bill has been completed.

 The US military will end its combat mission in Iraq.

 - Bank of England member Frigg: Below lower interest rates, further rate cuts are positive.

 - Employment rates in OECD countries increased slightly to 66.8% in the first quarter of 2021.

 Amazon denies that it will accept Bitcoin payments this year.

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Preliminary assessment of the market on July 27

 Preliminary assessment of the market on July 27.

There are few important economic data to be released today - However, "US consumer confidence" data scheduled for release at should also be kept in mind.

 The market is still in a state of waiting for the late night fomc meeting tomorrow night.  Therefore, news related to the Covid-19 epidemic should also pay attention to investors.

 Currently, the market is expected to continue moving sideways, waiting for fomc.

 1. Gold 7/27:

 The expected range is still running in the 1790-1810 zone.  Buy and sell near this border area.

Buy Limit #XAUUSD #GOLD AT 1790 and 1792

SL: 1785

TP: 18XX 18XX

2. GBPUSD 7/27:

 As the number of covid-19 infections in the UK decreased after the UK lifted the blockade orders ==> GBP is supported.

#GBPUSD broke the 1.37800-1.38000 zone which is likely to extend the upside momentum to 1.39000.  So buy.

Buy Limit GBPUSD AT 1.3780 and 1.3800

SL:  1.3740

TP:  1.3XXX

 3. Bitcoin 7/27.

The resistance is still around 41k.  Traders can watch bitcoin's reaction to this resistance zone

 Bitcoin Range : 29k-41k

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Monday 26 July 2021

Comment on Gold on July 26, 2021

 Ending the last trading week precious metal Gold fell from 1825 to 1789 ($36) and closed the trading week with a bearish candle around 1801. This is the first week of decline after nearly a month.  Through the recovery of precious metal Gold and my personal view this trading week still expect this precious metal to drop further with a stronger correction compared to the last trading week.


 Switching to the daily chart time frame we can see that currently the price area around 1794 is still a relatively strong support area for this precious metal Gold has not been broken many times, the price keeps touching the price zone.  This price rebounded again and I expect this trading week this price zone will break down to go deeper.  Above is the resistance zone 1810-1815 and if the price goes up to this zone then this is the ideal area for us to establish a short position in precious metal Gold with safe target around 1794 and expectation is  1785.

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Technical analysis on gold (July 26, 2021)

 Ending the last trading week precious metal Gold fell from 1825 to 1789 ($36) and closed the trading week with a bearish candle around 1801. This is the first week of decline after nearly a month.  Through the recovery of precious metal Gold and my personal view, this trading week still expects this precious metal to drop further with a stronger correction compared to the last trading week.

Switching to the daily chart time frame we can see that currently, the price area around 1794 is still a relatively strong support area for this precious metal Gold has not been broken many times, the price keeps touching the price zone.  This price rebounded again and I expect this trading week this price zone will break down to go deeper.  Above is the resistance zone 1810-1815 and if the price goes up to this zone then this is the ideal area for us to establish a short position in precious metal Gold with a safe target of around 1794 and expectation is  1785.

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Friday 23 July 2021

Forex Trading Updates: If you are interested in trading signals or tips

   1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - Gold used to increase more than 10 dollars and oil price continues to increase more than 2%.

 - Claims for initial jobless claims increased again from the United States through July 17.

 - Iran opens important oil pipeline that can pass through the Strait of Hormuz to transport crude oil.

 US used-home sales in June rose for the first time in five months.

 - The European Central Bank committed to a policy of "permanent easing" and revised future guidance on interest rates.

 - Saudi Aramco hacked and demanded $ 50 million ransom.

 - IMF: Will improve its concessional lending program, or "limit sale" of its gold reserves.

 - The Tokyo Olympics opened today and only 950 people were present to watch the opening ceremony


 2️⃣ Financial facts and data today

 - Today will publish the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in France, Germany and the Eurozone in July.

 - PMI of UK manufacturing and services sectors will be published in July.

 - The initial value of the Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI will be published in July.

 - Japan's Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed for one day due to the Sports Festival.

 - At Saturday, the total number of US oil rigs for the week to July 23 will be announced.

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Comment on Gold on July 23, 2021

  In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold went standard as analyzed in the early morning when it was still in a sideways range when it fell to 1794 then bounced back to 1807. Once again Gold failed to break the zone.  support 1794 and we will prioritize buying if gold drops there first today.

 - As I have analyzed for many days, Gold will mostly move sideways in a large range of 1794-1818 and there will be no specific breakout and in my opinion today we will still hold this view if  If gold breaks any boundary, we will hit that border.  These are also support and resistance areas in today's session.

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Thursday 22 July 2021

Comment on Gold on 22/07/2021

 Ending yesterday's session, precious metal Gold had a down day when it fell from 1813 to 1794 (19$) and closed the day with a bearish candle, but the drop was not too strong and still going.  supported by the 1794 price zone. So my personal view today will not change much compared to yesterday morning.  

When will watch the trade on 2 sides, buy around 1795 and sell when the price touches the 1815-1818 zone.  These are also 2 support and resistance levels in today's session.

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Bitcoin Price Outlook for August and September is “bearish”?

  Bitcoin futures are in the process of rolling over to August contracts and the initial outlook seems to be “bearish”.  The difference between the first, second and third-month futures contracts is almost zero

 - Traders seem to be turning back to selling Bitcoin through futures and speculative buyers are backing away.  That is seen by the fact that open interest is usually highest on days when Bitcoin is down.  - Without a daily supply coming from speculative buyers it would be very difficult for any cryptocurrency to rise in price.

 Last night, BTC received a boost from speakers at a conference, but compared to some of the spikes seen in the past, this rally looks insignificant.  Traders are unlikely to be impressed by this rally, as it has not yet come close to the 50% Fibo retracement level of the decline since mid-June at around $35,000.


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Wednesday 21 July 2021

US dollar hits three-month high on safe-haven buying

 


 The US dollar rallied to a three-month high in safe-haven buying on Tuesday, and investors remained right.  The rapidly spreading variant virus is causing concern because it could stifle global economic growth.


 Commodity currencies that are associated with risk appetite, such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, have experienced tough trends.  As worries about the highly contagious variant of the Delta virus flare up again, investors will choose to hedge or stay out.  Delta virus is currently the main novel coronavirus in the world.


 The number of infections in the United States has risen sharply, especially in areas where vaccinations are lagging.  The US dollar rose and US Treasury yields fell.  The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to a five-month low below 1.20% on Monday, as markets once again cast doubt on the economy's strong recovery from the outbreak.


 “The shift in relative growth expectations is weakening capital outflows from the United States and increasing the attractiveness of investments,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Cambridge Global Payments.  in dollars.."


 “I think the dollar’s ​​safe-haven strength is justified, because global economic growth is weak and not as strong as it was in the quarter,” said Juan Perez, forex strategist and trader at Tempus Inc.  first, so all valuations and economic growth are now called into question in terms of high expectations, that's true"

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The Federal Reserve eased stimulus concerns: Market News

 The market's pulse

Let's take a closer look at how these and other important events affect currency prices: 





Currencies

MARKET VIEW

Weekly changes: EURUSD -0.46%, GBPUSD -0.88%, USDJPY -0.19%, NZDUSD -0.14%

The EURUSD pair closed the week at 1.18036. Earlier that week, the price declined and tested 1.1770. The ECB will declare its monetary policy strategy this Thursday.

GBPUSD fell to 1.37613, near its multi-month low of 1.37300. Yesterday U.K. reported the most significant one-day COVID cases spread since the start of the year. Meanwhile, the BoE officials talked about reducing their asset purchase programme, but it looks like words will remain only words for now.

USDJPY finished Friday at 110.053, almost unchanged for the week. The Bank of Japan surprised no one with its inaction. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said nothing we didn’t already know, i.e. that the Japanese economy remains in a bad state, but activity will be picking up amid vaccine progress.

The hefty inflation lifted the New Zealand dollar. The market now considers the RBNZ to be the first major central bank to raise the rate next month. Although the greenback was that firm, it erased the local currency from the current range, so the NZDUSD pair closed Friday below 0.70000 with minor weekly changes.

BULLISH TRIGGERS

The ECB will hold a meeting, and it probably will move the markets because of its hawkish tone of voice.

The BoE released relatively hawkish comments from its official last week about reducing the asset purchase programme sooner than anticipated. This Monday, the country will end all legal COVID restrictions. The BoE concluded its meeting but hasn't changed any policy settings.

BEARISH TRIGGERS

If the ECB meeting results are as non-eventful as were previous ones, the EURUSD will be under pressure. The regulator may delay announcing its hawkish steps till publishing the new summer data.

In the U.K., the focus remains on recent COVID developments in the absence of meaningful events. The Japanese currency was damaged by the BoJ decision of downgrading economic forecasts.
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Tuesday 20 July 2021

Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - The re-emergence of the epidemic caused panic, European and American stock markets plunged, crude oil plummeted.

 Biden: If the trend of high inflation continues, the US economy could face serious complications.

 - US Treasury Secretary Yellen convenes US regulators to discuss stablecoin rules.

 - Iran's Foreign Ministry: The next round of talks in Vienna will be held after the formation of a new Iranian government.

 - The size of ESG investment fund exceeds 160 billion, maximum profit of 290% in three years.

 - Members of the two Banks of England believe that austerity policies should not be premature.


 2️⃣ Today's Financial Facts and Data

 - The listed interest rate of the one-year loan market from China to July 20 will be announced.

 - The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting.

 - The Eurozone current account will be published after the May seasonal adjustment.

 - The price of NYMEX New York crude oil for August futures is affected by the position change.  The last transaction on the exchange will be completed at on July 21, and the last transaction on the exchange will be completed. Also, the expiration times of some US oil contracts on some exchanges are usually a day earlier than the official NYMEX, so pay extra attention.

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📕 Comment on Gold on 12/07/2021

  



 - Ending last week's session, precious metal Gold had a week of gaining from 1784 to 1818 ($34) and was the third week in a row to close the week with a rising candle with a higher peak than the previous one.  With the weekly candles still supporting the uptrend, in my opinion, Gold will continue to gain in this trading week.

 - Switching to the D1 daily chart time frame, we can see around the 1815 price zone as the closest resistance area with the precious metal Gold and to continue the rally, we need to overcome this price zone.  In my opinion, in the early trading sessions of this week, it is likely that Gold will accumulate to wait for a breakout in the coming sessions and the timeframe and H4 time frame we can clearly see its sideway.

 - After breaking out of the 1795 resistance area, from July 6, 2021 to now, there has been no further breakout.  And in my opinion we can trade in this range.  Establish a short position around 1810-1815 with a safe target around 1797-1800.

Sell limit #XAUUSD #GOLD at 1813

 SL: 1823

 TP: 18XX 17XX

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Monday 19 July 2021

Comment on Gold on 19/07/2021

In the early trading sessions of last week, precious metal Gold had bounced up to the price area of ​​1834, however, in the last trading session of the week, the selling pressure dropped to 1809 and closed the week's session with a tree.  The green candle rallied but the increasing force was not strong, so in my opinion, the selling pressure from the end of last week will still affect the precious metal. Gold early this week. 




In terms of a shorter time frame than H4, currently Gold is having upward forces and I expect this precious metal can recover to around 1820-1825 if it can reach this price range, then this is the price range.  ideal for us to establish a short position in precious metal Gold with a target of 1804-1807.


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Friday 16 July 2021

Gold comment on July 16, 2021

 After the precious metal Gold surged to the 1834 price area, it immediately fell to the 1820 threshold and in yesterday's trading session Gold did not have any strong fluctuations, the price fluctuated around 1820-1832.  Closing yesterday's session, precious metal Gold had one more day of gains, however, the increasing force of the daily candle was not significant and as I said above, it was only fluctuating within the range.


Moving to the H4 time frame we see this even more clearly and I expect the precious metal Gold is creating resistance around 1830-1834 to move down so in the beginning of today's session we  We will prioritize the option to sell down with the target 1815-1820.

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Let see the news happening in the last 24 hours

 Check out the news happening in the last 24 hours:



 1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - Fed Chair Powell: It's too early to shrink debt.

 - Federal Reserve Evans: If unemployment hits 4.5%, the policy could be adjusted.

 - US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Inflation will continue for several months.

 - The US asked for data to continue to refresh at a low level early last week.

 - OPEC June crude oil production increased by 586,000 BPD.

 - Rumor has it that Iran is not ready to resume nuclear negotiations before the new president takes office.

 - “New Debt King” Gundlach: In the long term, the outlook for the dollar will not be favorable


 2️⃣ Financial facts and data today

 - Bank of Japan announces interest rate solution and inflation report.

 - Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda holds a press conference.

 - The final value and monthly rate of the euro area CPI annual rate for June.

 - US monthly retail sales rate for June.

 - FOMC Standing Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams will deliver speeches.

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Thursday 15 July 2021

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Comment on Gold on 15/07/2021

 - After 6 days of trading sideways in the range of 1790-1818, in yesterday's session, precious metal Gold had a break out of this accumulation area.  Closing yesterday's session with a bullish candle with quite strong force.  With the strong increase in candle power and the break of the previous sideways range, the precious metal Gold, in my opinion, is likely to continue to gain momentum in today's session.


Switching to a shorter-term time frame than H4 we can see the precious metal Gold is facing a short-term resistance around 1828 so it is likely that here Gold will tend to correct slightly around 1820.  and this is also a good price zone for us to establish a buy position with precious metal Gold with the target to be the next resistance around 1840-1848.

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Wednesday 14 July 2021

Comment on Gold on 14/07/2021

  - In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold had a span to retest the resistance around 1817. After touching this price range, it immediately dropped to 1805, showing that selling pressure around this price level is still there.  Gold hasn't had much volatility since it moved sideways in the 1790-1818 price range.  So I still maintain my opinion like recent analysis that we can trade in this range.

 Intraday resistance area of ​​precious metal Gold is around 1812-1818 and the support price push up precious metal is around 1790-1795.

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Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - US June CPI data hits new high in almost 13 years.

 - Fed Brad: It's time to withdraw stimulus measures.

 - Fed Bostic: High incarceration rate leads to the goal of full employment and US economic growth.

 - European Central Bank Commissioner Centeno said the rise in inflation in the euro area was temporary.

 - IEA Monthly Report: Unless OPEC+ increases production, the oil market will "tighten significantly".

 - French Monetary Authority: Cryptocurrencies need to be regulated by the whole EU.

 - Fitch: Confirms that the US is rated "AAA", and the outlook is negative.


 2️⃣ Financial facts and data today

 - New Zealand interest rate decision.

 - monthly US PPI rate in June.

 - Central Bank of Canada decides interest rate

 - EIA crude oil inventories from the United States through the week of July 9

 - Fed Chairman Powell will have a hearing.



US June CPI data hits new high in almost 13 years

 - US unadjusted annual CPI in June recorded 5.4%, new high since August 2008;  monthly CPI rate after June seasonal adjustment was 0.9%, new high since June 2008;  Unadjusted core CPI annual rate in June was recorded at 4.5%, higher than expected and the highest level since 1991.

 - After the data was released, US federal funds futures showed that the probability of the Fed raising rates in December 2022 is 90% and the probability of raising rates in January 2023 is 100%.

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Tuesday 13 July 2021

Check out the news happening in the last 24 hours

 1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - New York Fed survey shows inflation expectations set new high.

 - Fed Williams: Has not met the criteria for reducing debt purchases.

 - The winning yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond hit a new low since February.

 - US Commerce Secretary Raymondo: is pushing the White House to relax travel restrictions on the US.

 EU plans to impose taxes on digital services have been shelved.

 - There are rumors that OPEC+ has not made progress in resolving the stalemate.

 Iran's Foreign Ministry: Iran's nuclear talks are close to reaching "results"

 2️⃣ Financial facts and data today

 - The Bank of England releases the financial stability report for July 2021.

 - IEA publishes monthly crude oil market report.

 - US June US off-season adjusted annual CPI / seasonally adjusted monthly rate CPI.


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Comment on Gold on July 13, 2021

 In yesterday's session, after the precious metal fell to the 1791 price zone, the price bounced back up, closing yesterday's session with a bearish candle and retreating around the 1805 threshold.  day with a pullback candle plus very good buying power after falling to 1791 so in my opinion we will continue to trade with precious metal Gold on the 2 sides of this sideway  is 1791-1815.

Switching to the H4 time frame we can clearly see the sideways area of ​​Gold, in my opinion in today's trading session we are waiting to buy if the price falls around 1785-1791 and sell if the price reaches  The nearest resistance zone is around 1812-1818.

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Monday 12 July 2021

Comment on Gold on 12/07/2021

Ending last week's session, precious metal Gold had a week of gaining from 1784 to 1818 ($34) and was the third week in a row to close the week with a rising candle with a higher peak than the previous one.  With the weekly candles still supporting the uptrend, in my opinion, Gold will continue to gain in this trading week.


Switching to the D1 daily chart time frame, we can see around the 1815 price zone as the closest resistance area with the precious metal Gold and to continue the rally, we need to overcome this price zone.  In my opinion, in the early trading sessions of this week, it is likely that Gold will accumulate to wait for a breakout in the coming sessions and the timeframe and H4 time frame we can clearly see its sideway.

 - After breaking out of the 1795 resistance area, from July 6, 2021 to now, there has been no further breakout.  And in my opinion we can trade in this range.  Establish a short position around 1810-1815 with a safe target around 1797-1800.

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Friday 9 July 2021

Today Update on Gold by Money Life Research

  Gold today at the current price created the “three black crows” candlestick was priced at 1805.00 early this morning.  This reaction sees a potential downtrend is likely to occur.


 From another aspect, looking from the test price at the price resistance of 1808.00 as well as the trendline done shows the same potential apart from the candlestick feature itself.


 With this potential, the risks and rewards that can be taken are between 1: 1 to 1: 5 because if the price strongly decreases the price can reach up to 1770.00.  In addition, from another aspect is the preparation of trades that will be done at any time.


 Finally, a little addition to the H1 timeframe has made a reversal confirmation and there is no problem if you want to wait for a clear setup to your liking.

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Today's Update On DAX Analysis

 ℹ️ #DAX #ANALYSIS

The DAX comes out of the side in which it was immersed, but it is still inside a larger one.  Yesterday he held on to the lows of the month with the help of the USA when he was having a strong panic.  Now we will see if he continues to bounce or falls again to retest the lows for the month.






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Thursday 8 July 2021

Monthly Overview on Oil

 Monthly change: XBRUSD +9.62%


Oil rose over 9% and exceeded 75.64 USD in June. XBRUSD recorded a seven-month gain in the past eight months. A firmer U.S.dollar makes XBRUSD more expensive in other currencies, potentially weighing on demand. However, neither the greenback nor the third COVID wave threat could hold oil from a surprise rally.


OPEC+ meeting took place at the beginning of June. The organisation noted the ongoing strength of market fundamentals as the economic recovery in most parts of the world continued. Since then, the oil headed for monthly gains, and OPEC+ called the market undersupplied. The next meeting will take place in July. The group will discuss extending its deal on cutting oil supply beyond April 2022.


Last October, eight months ago, Reuters questioned analysts on their oil price forecasts. None of the present economists predicted an extended rally or a doubling in oil prices within that period. However, both events happened. This month's projections were more accurate in predicting a further rally limited by OPEC decisions and the potential U.S. and Iran deal.

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Latest Update on XAUUSD

 XAUUSD H1

 The current price showing a downtrend reaction was seen to occur early this morning after the price failed to close above 1808.00.

 From the movement that is happening now, see the tendency of the price to re-enter the horizontal area that has happened before.  At the price of 1800.00 there is no rejection but instead creates the potential for a downtrend at a lower price.

From the technical analysis done, if the downtrend is strong, the price to be sought is 1770.00 because this is one of the closest support areas.  Even if the decline does not occur, at the current price of 1800.00 it will be seen whether the price makes a rejection or not.  Since the market does not show any clear setup, we will wait for the US market to open later to see the current price movement that will be shown later.

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Wednesday 7 July 2021

UPDATE ON COMMODITIES

#XAUUSD or #GOLD | 07/07/21


- The US economy created 850,000 jobs in June. It could be another nail in gold’s coffin. Gold prices attempted to move higher on Monday but failed to gain traction. The dollar rose again putting capping the upside in the yellow metal. The U.S. 10-year yield tumbled on Monday dropping 7-basis points following the softer than expected U.S. ISM service report. The newest employment situation report is negative for the yellow metal mainly because it strengthens the position of hawks within the FOMC. With strong labor market, there are higher chances that the Fed will normalize its monetary policy earlier. As a reminder, some of the central banks believe that the Fed has already reached its inflation targets. So, the labor market target is what’s left. Strong job gains in June moved the US economy much closer to achieving this Fed’s goal and erasing worries that came in the aftermath of the extremely disappointing April reading.


- Technical View: To the upside, if we can clear the 50 day EMA then it is likely we will go higher to fill the gap, sending gold towards the 1860. Short-term momentum has turned positive and generated a crossover buy signal also negative medium-term momentum is decelerating.

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Tuesday 6 July 2021

Monthly Overview on Cryptocurrencies by Money Life Research

 Monthly change: BTCUSD -7.93%


Bitcoin's historical price records


Bitcoin traded at 34,000 USD by the end of the month, as the investors preferred to take profits. During June, the crypto fluctuated mostly within the 30,000-40,000 USD price range. However, by the middle of the month, the market witnessed a specific bearish technical signal called 'death cross'. The previous movements of this signal resulted in further price declines in 2018-2020.


Blockchain analytics explain the shortage of institutional investors as the reason for the current cryptocurrency price level. Now it remains almost half of April's all-time high. The open positions in bitcoin futures fell by 59% from the April peak, as investors remain cautious. Regulatory crackdowns and concerns about tighter monetary policy caused all recent sell-offs. All this happens in the wake of a slowdown in institutional demand and thinner liquidity.

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Monthly Review On Gold&Currencies


Currencies

Monthly change: EURUSD -2.94%, GBPUSD -2.78%, USDJPY +2.18%, USDCAD +3.72%, AUDUSD -3.94%

DXY ended June at 92.427. This month, the index gained about 3% after the unexpectedly hawkish shift from the Fed at its meeting. The unconventional part is that the ten-year benchmark U.S.Treasury bonds are still yielding 1.48% despite all events. This month was meant to be eventful for the major central banks to declare their monetary policy intentions. None of them, except for the Fed, did it. That's why June 2021 will be remembered as the 'swinging' month for the financial markets. Taking a monthly trading review in EURUSD, the currency pair was downbeat by the Fed's hawkish tone of voice and the absence of any clear steps towards stimuli from ECB. The currency pair ended the month near 1.184, the level of early April this year.

The Bank of England left its policy settings unchanged, as was anticipated. The GBPUSD pair came under intense bearish pressure after that, and the regulator remained speechless towards Fed's statement. The pair lost almost 3% during the month, closing at 1.383.

The Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged. The oil-oriented currency pair was among the few majors, finishing the month with a positive gain. The USDCAD pair closed in June near 1.24, adding 3% a month.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hike rates next November, well ahead of the 2024 timeline. The AUDUSD pair fell by almost 3% after that to 0.7470 and finished the month at that level ten days later. The Bank of Japan left its policy measures unchanged, as was expected. The USDJPY pair went higher on renewed greenback strength and the Japanese yen pressure and climbed above 111.

 
Gold

Monthly change: XAUUSD -6.65%

From oil to grains, most commodities were at their highs this month, except for the gold. XAUUSD began declining from the start of the month on concerns that faster economic growth would increase inflation and major central banks would withdraw stimuli. However, the pair rebounded at the weak U.S. NFP data, and the price exceeded 1,900 USD. Although, the talk of monetary tightening sent the currency pair to a two-month low of 1,750 USD. The yellow metal finished June at the level of early May at 1,770 USD.

Gold witnessed its worst monthly loss in almost five years due to the Fed's hawkish words. The important point is that neither stimulus tapering nor rate hikes are likely to happen anytime soon. Fed's executives kept commenting on the words of the central bank officials since that FOMC meeting. Every hawkish tone from Fed officials lowered XAUUSD price more than a dovish comment would have lifted.

Traders raised their bullish positions in COMEX gold in the week to 23 March, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

Monday 5 July 2021

Check out the news that happened over the weekend

 1️⃣ The main news last weekend

 Nonfarm payrolls in the United States in June posted its biggest growth in 10 months, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.9%.  Employment data lowers Fed expectations and US certificates hit record levels.

 - US trade deficit widened to second highest on record in May, imports grew faster than exports.

 - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting was still unsuccessful to reach an agreement last Friday, because the UAE is still responding to the proposal to increase production, the talks will continue on Monday.

 - San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly said in an interview with the Associated Press that the conditions for downsizing could be reached later this year.

 - A senior US State Department official said that negotiations to join the EU and the Balkan countries have stalled.

 - Global production of Tesla in the II vehicles is a record high of 201,250 vehicles, lower than the 204,160 vehicles estimated by Bloomberg surveyors.

 - Nikkei News Quoting people familiar with the matter, the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee is considering holding the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games without tampering in place.


 2️⃣ Notable events and data today

 - China's Caixin Services PMI in June.

 - The final value of the services sector PMI in the Eurozone in June.

 - The Sentix Investor Confidence Index in the Eurozone in July and the UK Services PMI in June.

 - OPEC + will continue to meet at the ministerial level to discuss policies to increase crude oil production.

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Comment on Gold on July 5, 2021

At the end of June, precious metal Gold has had a strong decrease from 1915 to 1750, covering up the previous May's increase, forming a twin candle pattern, so in this July, the possibility of pressure selling will continue.



 - Switching to the weekly time frame (W1), we see that after 3 consecutive weeks of decline, the last 2 weeks the buying force has reappeared but not too strong.  Gold is currently facing a resistance around MA20 on the weekly chart, so there is likely to be selling pressure here.

 - Considering the shorter time frame than D1, we see this more clearly.  The price range 1787-1795 is still a fairly strong resistance area for precious metal Gold when from June 18, 2021 back here, it has not been broken and in my opinion at the beginning of this week's trading session, the possibility of Gold will correct.  slight correction here.  We can establish a short position in precious metal Gold at a present price with a safe target of around 1773 and expect around 1765.

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Friday 2 July 2021

Check out the news happening in the last 24 hours

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - Last week, the number of first-time applicants in the United States continued to be at its lowest level since the week of March 14 last year.

 The US House of Representatives passed a $715 billion infrastructure bill.

 - Fed Hack: Support to reduce debt by the end of this year.

 - European Central Bank President Lagarde: Restrictions on bank dividends could be lifted by the end of September.

 - OECD announces 130 countries/regions in favor of "two-pillar" reform.

 - UAE prevents OPEC from reaching an agreement to increase production.

 - US Congressional Budget Office: The estimated US fiscal deficit is $1.153 trillion in fiscal year 2022.


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - The US will release the unemployment rate for June and nonfarm employment population data after seasonal adjustment for the US in June.  Investors pay close attention to this data.

 - European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech.

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Comment on Gold on July 2, 2021

In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold returned to the sideways range of the past 1 week when it moved mainly in the range of 1770-1782, closing the day session at around 1776 with a green candle.  increase point.  As you can see, it ends with a bullish candle, but the momentum of this precious metal is not too strong and the price zone around 1780-1785 is the price zone many times Gold has failed to break since 21/21.  6/2021 to present.  So in my personal opinion selling pressure will still be maintained around this price level of 1780-1785.

In addition, the selling pressure on the major weekly (W1) and monthly (MN) time frames is still quite strong, the upper resistance area is also MA20 on the weekly chart, so we have more reasons to establish this position.  short position with a safe target around 1765-1760.

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Thursday 1 July 2021

Notable events and data today

  The European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Committee will hold a hearing, the President of the European Central Bank Lagarde will attend and deliver a speech.


 Governor of the Bank of England Bailey will give a speech.


 The 181st OPEC meeting will be held; OPEC ministerial supervisory committee meeting and non-OPEC oil producing countries;  The 18th OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries ministerial meeting will take place At that time, you can pay attention to the price movement of the two oils.


 The US will release the initial number of jobless claims through June 26. The previous value was 411,000 and the expected value was 393,000.  The performance of the data can affect the volatility of the US dollar.


 The next day, Bostic, the 2021 FOMC voting committee and the president of the Atlanta Fed, will speak. 

Governor of the Bank of England Bailey will give a speech.

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Let's take a closer look at how these and other important events affect Indices

Weekly changes: SPX500 +3.26%

The SPX500 gained 3,2% for the week and closed Friday at the new all-historic high of 4,280.70. The U.S. Senate accepted President Biden's infrastructure deal. Therefore, all the stocks of the material and industrial sectors rose, pushing the main SPX500 higher. The yields on the ten-year U.S. Treasury notes closed Friday at 1.54%, almost unchanged from the previous week.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) slightly corrected itself from its highest levels last week and consolidated at 91,797. The American nonfarm payroll report will be released this Friday. The two previous releases showed less than expected figures. Will the greenback weaken again affected by a third weak release, or will July start with a new DXY height?

KEY POINTS

The U.S President's infrastructure plan will boost the economy. In addition, the labour market will be at total capacity due to the spending plan. Thus, all of these investments would strengthen the labour force and help the economy grow. Biden also believes that the recent high inflation won't last long. He stated that the economy is 7-10 million jobs down, compared to the pre-pandemic level. The President plans to get these jobless Americans back to work without inflaming inflation by raising taxes for the rich and corporations.

Last Friday, the DXY index rose to a 2.5 month high after the Fed forecasted two rate hikes in 2023. However, as the week passed, the U.S. dollar slipped and consolidated at the 'pre-Fed' level since the officials gave contrasting opinions on inflation pressure. Nevertheless, all investment markets started filling with liquidity as the inflation fears eased. As a result, investors became more concentrated on their investment goals.

Most traders are still bullish this year with the stimulus. The Fed is committed to being dovish with the economy reopening due to vaccinations and overall corporate earnings rising

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