Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to slide below the $1,620 support – ANZ

 Gold prices are likely to fall back to the previous low of $1,620 as bearish momentum is set to continue, economists at ANZ Bank report.

Bearish trend to continue

“Strong US job reports, and higher inflation led gold to resume its downtrend, and it is likely to fall below $1,600.”

“Immediate support lies at $1,620, the previous low. A break of this support should see prices touching the lower bound of the downward channel, which will be below $1,600.

“Immediate resistance is at $1,715, and an upward break of this level would see the next resistance point at $1,800, which will also mark a reversal of downtrend.”

German government expects economy to contract by 0.4% in 2023 – Reuters

 The German government still expects the economy to tip into recession next year despite the gas price brake that was presented on Monday, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing government sources.

The economy is now expected to contract by 0.4% in 2023 and inflation is seen at 8% and 7% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Market reaction

This headline doesn't seem to be having a noticeable impact on risk mood. As of writing, Germany's DAX 30 Index was down 0.83% on a daily basis at 12,171.81 points.

AUD/NZD to slide towards the 1.12 level – OCBC

 AUD/NZD continued to trade with a heavy downside bias amid growing policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Economists at OCBC Bank maintain a short bias targeting 1.12.

Risks remained skewed to the downside

“RBNZ’s accompanying MPS was slightly more hawkish than expected as it noted that the MPC considered 50, 75 bps at this meeting; core CPI is ‘too high’ and lower NZD if sustained poses further upside risk to CPI.”

“We maintain our tactical short play on AUD/NZD, targeting 1.12, 1.1050 objectives.”

“Daily momentum is bearish while RSI fell. Risks remained skewed to the downside.”

“Support at 1.1240, 1.1210 levels.”

“Resistance at 1.1305 (21 DMA), 1.1380 levels.

AUD/USD descends to its lowest level since May 2020 amid blowout USD rally to 20-year top

 

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• AUD/USD drops to its lowest level since May 2020 amid broad-based USD strength.
• Bets for more aggressive Fed rate hikes, elevated US bond yields underpin the buck.
• The risk-off mood further benefits the USD and weighs on the risk-sensitive aussie.
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The AUD/USD pair continues losing ground through the first half of the European session on Friday and drops to the 0.6565 area or its lowest level since May 2020.

The US dollar catches fresh bids on the last day of the week and hits a new 20-year peak, which turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. The Federal Reserve struck a more hawkish tone on Wednesday and signalled that it will undertake more aggressive rate increases to cap inflation. This, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continues to act as a tailwind for the greenback.

In fact, the yield on the rate-sensitive two-year US government bond touched a fresh 15-year high and the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped to its highest level since 2011 on Thursday. Meanwhile, investors remain concerned that rapidly rising borrowing costs will lead to a deeper global economic downturn. This, in turn, tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and is further underpinning demand for the traditional safe-haven buck.

Apart from this, economic headwinds stemming from China's zero-covid policy and the risk of a further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have been fueling recession fears. This is seen as another factor contributing to driving flows away from the risk-sensitive aussie. With oscillators still far from being in the oversold territory, the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of the depreciating move for the AUD/USD pair.

Market participants now look forward to the release of the flash US PMI prints, due later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at an event in Washington, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities heading into the weekend.

When are the US durable goods orders and how could they affect EUR/USD?

 

US durable goods orders overview

Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of Durable Goods Orders data for July. The US Census Bureau will publish the monthly report at 12:30 GMT and is expected to show that headline orders rose 0.6% during the reported month, marking a notable slowdown from the 2% increase recorded in June. Orders excluding transportation items, which tend to have a broader impact, are anticipated to grow by a modest 0.2% in July as compared to a 0.4% rise reported in the previous month.

Analysts at Wells Fargo offer a brief preview of the report and explain: “Demand for goods is slowing. That is as true for business spending as it is for personal consumption. For businesses, the growing concern the economy is about to tip into recession is weighing on activity, as well as higher borrowing costs and demand largely having been pulled forward throughout the pandemic.”

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the key data, the emergence of fresh US dollar buying drags the EUR/USD pair back closer to its lowest level since December 2002 touched the previous day. A stronger-than-expected domestic data will reinforce hawkish Fed expectations, which, in turn, should result in higher US Treasury bond yields and a stronger USD.

Conversely, a weaker report will further fuel concerns about a global economic downturn and weigh on investors' sentiment, offering some support to the greenback's safe-haven status. This, along with fears of a prolonged energy-supply crunch in the Eurozone, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside.

That said, any immediate market reaction is more likely to be short-lived as market participants might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Nevertheless, a big divergence from the expected readings might still provide some meaningful impetus to the EUR/USD pair.

Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, meanwhile, offered a brief technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair: “On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays well below 40 after having moved out of the oversold territory on Tuesday. Additionally, EUR/USD is yet to make a four-hour close above the descending regression channel coming from August 12. Both of these technical developments suggest that the pair's latest recovery was a technical correction rather than a reversal..”

Eren also outlined important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “In case the pair starts using 0.9950 (static level, upper limit of the descending regression channel) as support, it could face interim resistance at 0.9975 (20-period SMA) before testing parity. On the downside, 0.9900 (static level, psychological level) aligns as first support before 0.9870 (former resistance area from October 2002) and 0.9800 (psychological level).”

When is the Canadian monthly jobs report and how could it affect USD/CAD?

 

Canadian employment details overview

Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish the monthly employment details for July later this Friday at 12:30 GMT. The Canadian economy is anticipated to have added 20K jobs during the reported month, up sharply from the 43.2K decline reported in June. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 5.0% in July from the 4.9% previous.

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) are more optimistic about the report and explain: “We look for job growth of 38k in July, driven by a partial rebound for trade services and natural resources after their sharp decline in June. Full-time hiring should lead the increase, while stronger labour force participation should keep unemployment stable at 4.9%. We also expect to see wage growth firm to 6.0% y/y in July, although AHE (Average Hourly Earnings) should slow on a m/m basis.”

Bailey speech: Will not comment on Conservative leadership candidates' plans

 

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Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is delivering his remarks on the policy outlook and responding to questions from the press following the bank's decision to hike the policy rate by 50 basis points to 1.75%.

Key takeaways

"BOE will not comment on Conservative leadership candidates' plans."

"BOE has a very clear mandate of price stability."

"Consequences of Russia's actions in Ukraine have a serious economic impact."

"Political pressures have been very well managed since BOE independence."

"I have not abandoned the narrow path analogy for UK policy outlook."

"A number of central banks have a similar narrow path to tread."

About Andrew Bailey (via bankofengland.co.uk)

"Andrew Bailey previously held the role of Deputy Governor, Prudential Regulation and CEO of the PRA from 1 April 2013. While retaining his role as Executive Director of the Bank, Andrew joined the Financial Services Authority in April 2011 as Deputy Head of the Prudential Business Unit and Director of UK Banks and Building Societies. In July 2012, Andrew became Managing Director of the Prudential Business Unit, with responsibility for the prudential supervision of banks, investment banks and insurance companies. Andrew was appointed as a voting member of the interim Financial Policy Committee at its June 2012 meeting."

Who will Help The AUSSIES As There is a Change in MAJOR and MINOR Currency Pairs

LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar dipped on Thursday as this week's rally in U.S. Treasury yields paused, while the Canadian and Australian dollars gained on the back of rising commodity prices and optimism about economic growth.

The euro and sterling rose after suffering their worst days in a month on Tuesday when the dollar was lifted by a jump in U.S. Treasury yields.

However, by 1100 GMT the initial gains had fizzled with investors cautious about the next move in government bond yields.

The European single currency was last at $1.1346, up slightly on the day and below an earlier high of $1.1369.

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The pound was 0.1% higher at $1.3622 and the yen was up marginally 114.26 per dollar.

This left the dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, at 95.563, 0.1% lower on the session.

The dollar has not performed as well as expected recently, despite a dramatic rise in expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin hiking interest rates as early as March to curb soaring inflation.

U.S. benchmark 10-year note yields were at 1.8379%, off their two-year high of 1.902% reached on Wednesday.

The gains come as traders prepare for the United States to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace than previously thought. Fed funds futures have fully priced in a rate hike in March and four in all for 2022.

Elsewhere a combination of higher commodity prices and expectations for tighter policy supported the Aussie and the Loonie.

The Aussie firmed 0.4% to $0.7237, extending advances from the previous day, and the Canadian dollar was heading back towards the 10-week high it touched on Wednesday, with one U.S. dollar worth C$1.2493.

Analysts said a strong Australian labour market reading overnight also helped the Aussie.

"The latest Australian employment report...reinforced expectations that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will decide to bring an immediate end to the QE (quantitative easing) programme at their next policy meeting on 1st February," said MUFG analyst Lee Hardman.

Hardman noted that the Canadian dollar has been the best performing G10 currency in 2022, attributing that to a sharp rebound in oil prices -- which have hit seven-year highs -- and speculation the Bank of Canada will soon start to hike rates.

The Norwegian crown, another currency linked to the price of oil, fell after the central bank voted to keep interest rates on hold at 0.5% and said it was on track for a March hike. That disappointed some traders betting it would flag a faster rate of tightening.

The crown was last down 0.2% against both the euro and the dollar.

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TODAYS US NATURAL GAS FORECAST

 US natural gas prices are slightly higher through Asia-Pacific trading after prices dropped over 5% overnight. Currently, the US benchmark is on track to record a monthly loss of around 15%, which would make December the third month of consecutive losses. A warmer-than-expected start to the winter across North America has been the main headwind for prices in recent months.

However, a bout of expected cold temps across the Northern Plains may underpin prices. The National Weather Service’s 8-14 day temperature outlook (NOAA) shows mercury readings will likely dip below the historical averages. Alaska and Southern California are also showing an increased chance for cold weather in early January. Natural gas is heavily relied upon as a heating fuel, making prices highly susceptible to weather trends.

Tonight will see an inventory report cross the wires for the United States for the week ending December 24. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to report a draw of 128 billion cubic feet (bcf), according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. A larger-than-expected draw may help support prices, especially if the expected cold snap plays out. EIA data shows natural gas stocks are 34 bcf below the five-year average. The unseasonably warm weather so far this winter has helped inventory levels normalize over the past few weeks.

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GOLDEN MARKET: Forex | Comex | Stocks

   ☘️The price of gold in the international market has increased and decreased unpredictably according to the evolution of updated information on the mutation of the Omicron virus.

 ☘️Investors are insecure because of new information about the Omicron mutation and negative fluctuations in the world financial market.

 The CEO of Moderna believes that Omicron reduces the effectiveness of the vaccine.  Accordingly, the world will take many months to develop and ship a specific vaccine with the Omicron strain.  However, more time is needed to determine exactly how the Omicron variant affects the vaccine's effectiveness.

 ☘️The USD dropped sharply and world stocks simultaneously dropped, which was the factor that pulled the gold price up.

 The new Covid-19 variant was first detected in South Africa and has appeared in more than a dozen countries, prompting many countries to re-enact travel restrictions.  The World Health Organization (WHO) classifies Omicron as a variant of concern, on the same level as the Delta variant.

 US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes the Omicron variant poses a threat to the Fed's mandate to stabilize prices and maximize employment.

 Gold is under pressure from the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) accelerates the plan to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.

 However, the precious metal commodity is supported by the unpredictable variables of the new virus strain.

 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has just said that the Omicron mutation puts pressure on the US economy and complicates the inflation picture.

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Contents after the FOMC meeting

  ☘️The Fed has reduced the amount of bond purchases, buying only $60 billion of bonds monthly (50% reduction compared to before November and 33% compared to December) and this number will continue to decrease until the number is reached.  0.

 ☘️The interest rate remains the same at the moment.  And it is expected to start raising interest rates (around March 2022) - maybe 3 times in 2022, 2 times in 2023 and 2 times in 2024.

 Therefore, with this policy of the Fed, it seems to be dovish when everything goes according to schedule and with advance notice, avoiding shock to the market.

The market expected the opposite so gold fell sharply until receiving the official announcement after the meeting.

With the above content, it is highly likely that gold will continue to increase in price from 1752xx

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Importance of Live Forex Signals In The Market

The Forex market is highly volatile and there are thousands of investors who enter this market to try their luck. As there are many beginners in this market, they also get some forex signals in order to make good profits in the market. Forex signals are derived from standard trading charts or analytical signals and technical indicators. Using these signals can help traders to capture more profits in the market.

Understanding technical and fundamental analysis of the forex market requires skills and expertise. But since traders understand this skill, they can convert market leverage and volatility into profitability. Alternatively, you can get a good forex signal provider to understand the basics of the forex market. One of the most important forex tips is to get good forex signals and act immediately in order to get superior returns as compared to other investors.

 In order to use the forex signals effectively, we suggest you use the following steps -

Know Your Risk Tolerance

Before entering the forex market it is important to understand your risk tolerance. Otherwise, you will end up losing all your capital and savings in this market. This happens to many traders because of high volatility and leverage in the market. You should know what is the maximum loss that you can tolerate and the risk that you can take with invested capital.

Know Your Market

Are you investing for the long term or you are interested in investing for short duration or intraday trading. All the investors use different strategies in the market. So it is important to choose your trading style and market based on which you can plan your investment strategy.

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How To Boost Your Trading Success Rate

 Do you feel like your trading capabilities are stuck in a rut? Do you wish you could find some new and different approaches to making a profit by buying and selling your favorite instruments like forex currency pairs, stock shares, bonds, index funds, options, futures, commodities, and more? The silver lining inside the dark cloud of trading inertia is that there are indeed many techniques that can help you do better. What are the specific approaches you can use to become more skilled at what you do and earn more money in the long run? Here are a few of the tried and true strategies that people have been using to good effect for many years. Give one, some, or all of them a try and see if they make a difference.

Learn Technical Analysis

There are dozens of widely used technical indicators, all of which have their own unique and instructive powers. By far, the most common is the moving average. The SMA, or simple moving average, merely shows the result of adding together several days’ worth of price data and graphing it in such a way that we can see the big picture of price behavior. You probably know of the most popular of these indicators: the 50-200 crossover. What is it? It implies that prices are headed upward when a stock’s 50-day moving average (MA) crosses above its 200-day MA. In general, you can test out this theory on your favorite securities and see if prices rose after such a crossover. Some traders swear by this theorem and stay out of the market completely, as a safety precaution, when the 50-day MA is below the 200-day MA.

One of the most popular indicators is called MACD, which stands for moving average convergence divergence. It’s a convoluted name for a simple straightforward mathematical concept. Without going into minute detail, we could use an example of MACD trading strategy to illustrate the point. Keep in mind that the MACD is often used by traders who want to stay on the correct side of a trend. There’s a general rule to never buy a security when the price chart shows the MACD below its zero line and shows the trigger line above the generic convergence line. If that sounds complicated, don’t worry. It isn’t. Your platform’s charting software will calculate all those variables for you. That way, if XYZ’s share chart shows today’s MACD as being below the zero line, while its trigger line is above the generic line, you are receiving a warning: “Do not open a long position in XYZ stock today.”

Read About Market Psychology

There are some classic books out there, many of which are in the public domain, which means you can pick them up for no cost. Others are widely available and come with reasonable price tags. Spend time studying the general topic of market-based psychology as it pertains to buying and selling for a profit. Pay particular attention to sub-topics about personal behavior and warning signs that you are falling into a bad pattern of activity, like over-trading, investing money you can’t afford to lose, and being guided by your emotions instead of logic.

Study the Basics of Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is everything other than chart-based theory. In other words, the fundamental approach says you should look at a company’s underlying strengths and weaknesses rather than recent or long-term price behavior. For example, you examine things like whether the business has released any new products, what their current level of earnings is, the past performance of its executives if there are any pending lawsuits against the organization, etc.

Practice and Back-Test

Don’t neglect to put your newfound skills to the test. Consider using the simulator on your platform to make some fictitious buys and see how you do when employing fundamental, technical, and intuitive analysis. Start using a daily diary to log all your activities, feelings, and attitudes. Finally, use the simulator to experiment with using the MACD method and see if you can get a feel for how particular security is moving based on its moving-average information. It’s always possible to do some back-testing by reviewing historical price movement and see if you would have been able to predict it by using one or another technical indicator.

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Weekly changes: EURUSD +0.61%, GBPUSD +0.28%, USDCAD +0.13%

 EURUSD closed the week at 1.16425. The pair reached the 1.1670 mark twice but declined both times from the strength of the current resistance level.

GBPUSD ended Friday at 1.37551. The pair traded modestly within a week, having risen 2.4% in the previous fortnight.

USDCAD closed the week at 1.23583, the same spot as the Friday ago. The oil stepped from its three-year high, giving the Canadian dollar space to consolidate.

BULLISH TRIGGERS

The U.S. dollar eased after Powell's comment, enabling EURUSD to advance near the 1.1650 level. However, the eurozone inflation expectations are at their highest levels in years. This puts additional pressure on the ECB and its monetary policy agenda meeting this week.

GBPUSD changed insignificantly. The British pound fluctuated due to the country's various economic releases but remained bullish by late Friday. Early in November, the BoE is expected to be the first major central bank to lift its interest rate.

BEARISH TRIGGERS

The USDCAD finished the week flat, slowing its monthly-long decline. The BoC interest rate decision meeting this week might propose another round of tapering. Two days later, Canada will release its GDP data. The central bank's choice of tight or dovish tone of voice, followed by the solid or weak data, will determine USDCAD behavior this week.

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📕 Comment on Gold on October 18, 2021

 - After the precious metal Gold touched MA20 on the weekly chart as well as the descending trendline channel extending from June 1, 2021 until now, as analyzed at the end of last week Gold has dropped sharply from 1796 to 1764 ($32).  Closing the week with a long bullish candle so in my opinion at the beginning of the week there will still be selling pressure before the next rally.

 - Switching to the daily time frame, we can see that the selling force of Gold on Friday dominated quite a lot and is showing signs of a slight recovery and we can wait to buy around 1767.  with the target 1778-1782.  Here we liquidate the order and wait for a sell signal.  At that time, the team will update the signal to watch.

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ZEW survey for economic sentiment, Germany

WHAT IT INFLUENCES: EUR and its subsequent pairs

WHAT'S HAPPENING: Economic Sentiment Index gauges the six-month economic outlook. A level above zero indicates optimism; below it indicates pessimism. The reading is compiled from a survey of roughly 350 German institutional investors and analysts. A reading that is stronger than forecast is usually positive or bullish for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative or bearish for the EUR.

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Let's Have a look on Forex Market Updates

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, New Zealand

WHAT IT INFLUENCES: NZD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT'S HAPPENING: The RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the economy's inflationary outlook and raises the interest rates, it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD.

Retail Sales, Eurozone:

WHAT IT INFLUENCES: EUR and its subsequent pairs

WHAT'S HAPPENING: The Retail Sales released by the Eurostat is a measure of sales changes in the eurozone retail sector. The report displays the retail sector performance in the short term by the change in percentage. The changes are widely accepted as consumer spending indicator. Usually, positive economic growth predicts bullish sentiment for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.

PMI Construction, UK

WHAT IT INFLUENCES: GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT'S HAPPENING: The PMI Construction released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics shows business conditions within the U.K. construction sector. It is worth noting that the construction sector does not influence GDP as much as the manufacturing industry does.

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Important news 6 October 2021

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, New Zealand

WHAT IT INFLUENCES: NZD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT'S HAPPENING: The RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the economy's inflationary outlook and raises the interest rates, it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD.

Retail Sales, Eurozone

WHAT IT INFLUENCES: EUR and its subsequent pairs

WHAT'S HAPPENING: The Retail Sales released by Eurostat are a measure of sales changes in the eurozone retail sector. The report displays the retail sector performance in the short term by the change in percentage. The changes are widely accepted as consumer spending indicators. Usually, positive economic growth predicts bullish sentiment for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.

PMI Construction, UK

WHAT IT INFLUENCES: GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT'S HAPPENING: The PMI Construction released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics shows business conditions within the U.K. construction sector. It is worth noting that the construction sector does not influence GDP as much as the manufacturing industry does.

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RBA Interest Rate Decision, Australia

WHAT IT INFLUENCES: AUD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT'S HAPPENING: The Reserve Bank of Australia announces the RBA Interest Rate Decision. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates, then it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the current interest rate, or cuts the interest rate, then it is seen as negative, or bearish.

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Overview on US Dollar Index (DXY)

US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the volatility of the greenback with 6 major currencies (#EUR, #JPY, #GBP, #CAD, SEK, #CHF) standing above 94.0 points.

The greenback in the international market continued to appreciate when the US economy faced many uncertainties.  The USD rose to the highest level since November.- According to experts, world inflation tends to increase and is no longer a "transient" phenomenon as assessed by central banks in a few months.  via.  This scenario will probably cause the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to start tightening quantitative easing from November.

The greenback rose as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testified in the US Senate that if the Biden administration failed to raise the public debt ceiling, it would lead to a financial crisis.

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