USD/IDR to grind higher toward next resistance at 15,832 – TDS

 Bank Indonesia (BI) hiked rates by 50 bps as expected. Nonetheless, economists at TD Securities expect the USD/IDR to advance nicely toward the 15,832 resistance.

Another 50 bps hike cannot be discounted if IDR weakens aggressively

“BI hiked by another 50 bps, bringing the 7-day reverse repo rate to 4.75%. BI Governor Warjiyo noted that the hike was a ‘front-loaded, pre-emptive and forward-looking step to lower inflation expectations that are too high or overshooting’. However, we think the policy path ahead leans more on the pace of IDR depreciation given BI's historical focus on FX. Further, Warjiyo commented that the Bank wants to control the IDR to prevent imported inflation.”

“We see a gradual move for USD/IDR higher towards its next technical resistance level at 15,832 (76.4% Fib level over 5 yr-window).” 

“BI likely won't tolerate any sharp one-sided moves in IDR and another 50 bps hike cannot be discounted if IDR weakens aggressively against the USD and compared to its regional peers.”

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to slide below the $1,620 support – ANZ

 Gold prices are likely to fall back to the previous low of $1,620 as bearish momentum is set to continue, economists at ANZ Bank report.

Bearish trend to continue

“Strong US job reports, and higher inflation led gold to resume its downtrend, and it is likely to fall below $1,600.”

“Immediate support lies at $1,620, the previous low. A break of this support should see prices touching the lower bound of the downward channel, which will be below $1,600.

“Immediate resistance is at $1,715, and an upward break of this level would see the next resistance point at $1,800, which will also mark a reversal of downtrend.”

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Key resistance lies at the parity zone

 

• EUR/USD wobbles around the 0.9800 zone ahead of NFP.
• Bullish attempts face a tough barrier at the parity level.

EUR/USD gyrates around the 0.9800 region ahead of the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.

The resumption of the buying interest is expected to meet a solid hurdle at recent peaks around the parity zone. Ideally, EUR/USD should leave behind this key resistance zone in the near term to allow for the continuation of the rebound.

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view should remain unaltered while below the 200-day SMA at 1.0616.

Malaysia: Trade balance figures came on the strong side – UOB

 UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting review the latest trade balance figures in Malaysia.

Key Quotes

“Malaysia’s external trade surprisingly posted stronger gains last month, in part due to year-ago low base effects. Export growth hit a 16-month high of 48.2% y/y in Aug (Jul: +38.0%, UOB est: +30.5%, Bloomberg est: +34.3%) as a result of a triple-digit gain in re-exports (+112.5%) versus a double digit gain in domestic exports (+34.8%). Imports posted the largest ever annual growth on record, at 67.6% (Jul: +41.8%, UOB est: +48.0%, Bloomberg est: +48.0%). This brought trade surplus higher to MYR16.9bn from MYR15.6bn in the preceding month.”

“Increased shipments of commodity-based and electrical & electronic (E&E) products amid stronger demand from almost all trading partners were key drivers of robust export growth in Aug. Exports of petroleum products, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and optical & scientific equipment registered the highest monthly value in the month. Exports to the ASEAN region, South Korea and Hong Kong improved by more than 50% while shipments to the US jumped the most in 15 months by 38.2%.”

“Given that Aug’s export reading defied our earlier expectations of a soft patch in the greater part of 2H22 and the 30.3% year-to-date export growth moved further apart from our full-year growth target of 18.0%, we now upgrade our export growth projection to 26.0% for 2022 with statistical base and commodity price effects remaining wildcards for the outlook. We expect the recent retreat in major commodity prices and lingering global uncertainties particularly a global recession risk to weigh on Malaysia’s export outlook going into 2023, leading to a modest export growth of 1.5% next year.”

USD strength to persist into early next year – Rabobank

 In the view of economists at Rabobank, the US dollar is set to remain well supported for several months with the hawkish position of the Fed underpinning the attraction of the greenback as a safe haven.

Scope for further dips in EUR/USD below parity

“As the Fed still has a lot of work to do in taming price pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations are well anchored into the medium-term, it can be assumed that the FOMC will not be ready to relinquish its hawkish position just yet. Since this will impact risky assets, we see risk that USD strength persists into early next year.”

“We expect the USD to remain the favoured safe haven relative to either the JPY or the CHF in view of higher US short-term interest rates.”

“Given also that the eurozone is facing a difficult winter which includes the possibility of energy rationing for some businesses, we see scope for further dips in EUR/USD below parity.”

UK: Liz Truss wins contest to become the next UK Prime Minister

 Liz Truss won the Conservative Party leadership race to become the next British Prime Minister.

"I will deal with long-term issues on energy supply," Liz Truss said in her acceptance speech and noted that she will deal with the crisis in households' energy bills.

Additional takeaways

"I will govern as a conservative."

"I intend to deliver what we promised voters in 2019."

"I will deliver a bold plan to cut taxes and grow our economy."

"We will deliver a great victory for the conservative party in 2024."

Market reaction

The UK's FTSE 100 Index showed no immediate reaction to these comments and was last seen losing 0.6% on a daily basis. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair continues to fluctuate at around 1.1500 during the European trading hours.

Iran Foreign Minister: Carefully reviewing EU-drafted text for revival of 2015 nuclear pact

 Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Wednesday that Tehran is carefully reviewing the EU-drafted text for the revival of the 2015 nuclear pact, as reported by Reuters. 

"We need stronger guarantees from the other party to have a sustainable deal,"  Amirabdollahian added. "The (U.N.) agency should close its politically-motivated probes."

Market reaction

Crude oil prices showed no immediate reaction to these comments. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading at $89.10, where it was down 3.5% on a daily basis. 

When are the US durable goods orders and how could they affect EUR/USD?

 

US durable goods orders overview

Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of Durable Goods Orders data for July. The US Census Bureau will publish the monthly report at 12:30 GMT and is expected to show that headline orders rose 0.6% during the reported month, marking a notable slowdown from the 2% increase recorded in June. Orders excluding transportation items, which tend to have a broader impact, are anticipated to grow by a modest 0.2% in July as compared to a 0.4% rise reported in the previous month.

Analysts at Wells Fargo offer a brief preview of the report and explain: “Demand for goods is slowing. That is as true for business spending as it is for personal consumption. For businesses, the growing concern the economy is about to tip into recession is weighing on activity, as well as higher borrowing costs and demand largely having been pulled forward throughout the pandemic.”

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the key data, the emergence of fresh US dollar buying drags the EUR/USD pair back closer to its lowest level since December 2002 touched the previous day. A stronger-than-expected domestic data will reinforce hawkish Fed expectations, which, in turn, should result in higher US Treasury bond yields and a stronger USD.

Conversely, a weaker report will further fuel concerns about a global economic downturn and weigh on investors' sentiment, offering some support to the greenback's safe-haven status. This, along with fears of a prolonged energy-supply crunch in the Eurozone, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside.

That said, any immediate market reaction is more likely to be short-lived as market participants might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Nevertheless, a big divergence from the expected readings might still provide some meaningful impetus to the EUR/USD pair.

Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, meanwhile, offered a brief technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair: “On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays well below 40 after having moved out of the oversold territory on Tuesday. Additionally, EUR/USD is yet to make a four-hour close above the descending regression channel coming from August 12. Both of these technical developments suggest that the pair's latest recovery was a technical correction rather than a reversal..”

Eren also outlined important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “In case the pair starts using 0.9950 (static level, upper limit of the descending regression channel) as support, it could face interim resistance at 0.9975 (20-period SMA) before testing parity. On the downside, 0.9900 (static level, psychological level) aligns as first support before 0.9870 (former resistance area from October 2002) and 0.9800 (psychological level).”

Bailey speech: Will not comment on Conservative leadership candidates' plans

 

---

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is delivering his remarks on the policy outlook and responding to questions from the press following the bank's decision to hike the policy rate by 50 basis points to 1.75%.

Key takeaways

"BOE will not comment on Conservative leadership candidates' plans."

"BOE has a very clear mandate of price stability."

"Consequences of Russia's actions in Ukraine have a serious economic impact."

"Political pressures have been very well managed since BOE independence."

"I have not abandoned the narrow path analogy for UK policy outlook."

"A number of central banks have a similar narrow path to tread."

About Andrew Bailey (via bankofengland.co.uk)

"Andrew Bailey previously held the role of Deputy Governor, Prudential Regulation and CEO of the PRA from 1 April 2013. While retaining his role as Executive Director of the Bank, Andrew joined the Financial Services Authority in April 2011 as Deputy Head of the Prudential Business Unit and Director of UK Banks and Building Societies. In July 2012, Andrew became Managing Director of the Prudential Business Unit, with responsibility for the prudential supervision of banks, investment banks and insurance companies. Andrew was appointed as a voting member of the interim Financial Policy Committee at its June 2012 meeting."

EUR/USD: Upside could be limited even on good news regarding gas supplies – Rabobank

  EUR/USD has come within a whisker of parity. How low the pair goes is likely to depend on whether or not Russia wants to worsen the economic war with Europe, economists at Rabobank report.

USD strength may not relent until next year

“From a fundamental perspective, it is not difficult to paint a scenario in which EUR/USD could break below 1.00 and hold at lower levels into the winter months. That has been the case for a while.”

“If the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline is switched back on, in time next week after its scheduled maintenance, the EUR is likely to be granted a reprieve. That said, even if the EUR is boosted, we expect USD strength to dominate into next year suggesting upside for EUR/USD could be limited even on good news regarding Nord Stream.”

“For now, we retain our one-month forecast of EUR/USD 1.03. Evidence that Russian gas supplies into Europe will be further disrupted into the winter would cause us to downgrade our forecasts for the EUR further.”

USD/CHF pares intraday gains to fresh YTD peak, downside seems limited amid stronger USD

 

• USD/CHF jumped to a fresh YTD peak on Wednesday amid the prevalent USD buying interest.
• Bets for aggressive Fed rate hikes, a bleak global economic outlook continued boosting the USD.
• The risk-on impulse could undermine the safe-haven CHF and supports prospects for further gains.

The USD/CHF pair retreated a few pips from its highest level since May 2020 touched during the first half of the European session and was last seen trading just below the mid-0.9600s.

The pair prolonged its recent strong bullish run witnessed since the beginning of this month and gained follow-through traction for the fifth successive day on Wednesday. The momentum was sponsored by sustained buying around the US dollar, which climbed to a more than two-year peak amid the prospects for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed.

Investors now expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 bps at each of its next four meetings in May, June, July and September. The bets were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish comments by influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This, along with the deteriorating global economic outlook, boosted the greenback's reserve currency status.

Expectations for rapid interest rate hikes in the US, prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and the latest COVID-19 outbreak in China have raised fears of stalling global growth. Investors now seem worried that Russia could follow through on its threat to halt gas flows to countries that refuse to pay for fuel in roubles and cut off supplies to Europe.

That said, extremely overbought conditions held back traders from placing fresh bullish bets and kept a lid on any further gains for the USD/CHF pair, at least for now. The intraday bias, however, remains tilted in favour of bulls amid the prevalent strong bullish sentiment surrounding the USD and the risk-on impulse, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc.

Market participants now look forward to second-tier US economic releases for some impetus later during the early North American session. The data, along with Fed rate hike expectations, would influence the USD price dynamics. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab some short-term opportunities around the USD/CHF pair.

📕 Comment on Gold on April 22, 2022:

 📕 Comment on Gold on April 22, 2022:

 - After falling to 1935 in yesterday's session, precious metal Gold rebounded and closed the day's trading session with a bearish candle around the 1950 price. This is the 3rd day in a row that World Gold closes.  around this price.  In my personal opinion, the possibility that Gold in the beginning of today's trading session will still be supported around the 1940-1945 price zone.

 - On the H4 chart, we can clearly see the precious metal's withdrawal signal around the upper price range so we can consider buying with a safe target around 1960 in today's session.

GBP/USD eyes break below 1.3100 and towards key support amid buoyant buck

 

• GBP/USD is trading with a downside bias as the euro underperforms and 21DMA continues to act as a ceiling.
• A break lower to test last week’s 1.3050 lows looks on the cards, with bears also eyeing 1.3000 annual lows.
• Following hawkish Fed commentary over the weekend and ahead of possibly more this week, USD risks are tilted higher.

In a relatively tame start to the week for currency markets, GBP/USD is trading with a downside bias and is currently threatening a downside break of the 1.3100 level. Sterling is likely weighed by underperformance in its cross-English Channel peer the euro, which is underperforming ahead of the resumption of Russo-Ukraine peace talks later in the session and amid further chatter about a possible EU embargo on Russian energy imports. Commentary from BoE policymakers on Monday did not stray into the territory of monetary policy and thus hasn’t impacted cable, which probed last Friday’s lows in the 1.3080s earlier in the session and is eyeing a break lower towards last week’s lows around 1.3050.

“Despite much focus on the heaviest cost of living rise since British records began (1950s), the market still prices the BoE Bank Rate at 2.20% at the December meeting later this year,” noted analysts at ING. “That pricing of the BoE cycle is likely keeping GBP relatively well bid, although we do think the risks are growing of Cable breaking down to the $1.25/28 area over coming months,” they warn. Amid a light UK data schedule this week, the risks posed to GBP from fears of a weakening UK economy likely won’t be the major market focus.

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Overview on US Dollar Index (DXY)

US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the volatility of the greenback with 6 major currencies (#EUR, #JPY, #GBP, #CAD, SEK, #CHF) standing above 94.0 points.

The greenback in the international market continued to appreciate when the US economy faced many uncertainties.  The USD rose to the highest level since November.- According to experts, world inflation tends to increase and is no longer a "transient" phenomenon as assessed by central banks in a few months.  via.  This scenario will probably cause the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to start tightening quantitative easing from November.

The greenback rose as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testified in the US Senate that if the Biden administration failed to raise the public debt ceiling, it would lead to a financial crisis.

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Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - International oil prices sometimes fell 4%, recording 6 consecutive declines.

 - The number of first jobless claims last week hit a new low since the outbreak of the disease.

 - Yellen said the unemployment assistance program should be expanded.

 - The Taliban declares the establishment of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan".

 - Facebook faces antitrust lawsuit again

 2️⃣ Financial facts and data today

 - The price of NYMEX New York crude oil for September futures is affected by the monthly change.  The last transaction on the exchange will be completed on August 21, and the last transaction on the electronic exchange will be completed on August 21. Pay attention to the expiration notice.  transaction location to control risk.  Also, the expiration times of some US oil contracts on some exchanges are often a day earlier than the official NYMEX, so pay close attention.

The USDCAD currency pair rallied quite positively yesterday, surpassing the old peak area - the highest level since July 20 by :

 - Expect the Fed to tighten soon --> Positive for USD.

 - Good US economic data like "Unemployment Claims" decline ---> Positive for USD.

 - Crude oil declines ==> CAD declines.

 - Currently USDCAD has increased quite a lot, correction is necessary.  The resistance area at 1.285-1.287 might consider selling today.

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📕 Comment on Gold on August 19, 2021:

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 - In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold went in the right direction when it matched the sell limit area and fell from 1793 to 1777 ($ 16) then bounced back and closed the day with a green candle around the threshold.  1787. Although yesterday ended with a bullish candle, this candle has a negligible increase in strength and the downward pressure around 1793-1795 is still good.

 - Switching to a smaller time frame (H4) we can clearly see this when the candlesticks appear that the following high is lower than the previous high and the following low is deeper than the previous low.  So my personal view in today's trading session is still selling.  The nearest resistance area where we can establish a short position is 1786-1790 with a safe target around 1775 and an expectation of 1768.
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Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

 1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 The Fed is expected to consider ending bond purchases by mid-2022.

 The Dow and S&P 500 continue to hit record highs.

 - According to the news that OPEC + has no intention to increase production, oil prices recover in the short term.

 - Japan increased its US debt holdings in June and China's debt holdings fell the most in 5 years.

 - The US government has begun a formal investigation into Tesla's autonomous driving system.

 - National Standing Committee: Finalize and implement a plan to cope with the increase in prices of important raw materials.

 2️⃣ Financial facts and data today

 - Today the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its August monetary policy meeting.

 - In the afternoon, the UK and the Eurozone will announce unemployment rates for the 7th consecutive month and be on the lookout for fluctuations in the pound and the euro.

 - the percentage of monthly retail sales for July in the United States, known as "terror data", will be released.  Expected value is -0.2%, lower than previous value of 0.6%.

 - The World Economic Forum held its special 2021 annual meeting today, until August 20.

 - the next day, Fed Chair Powell joined the videoconference.

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Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

 

 1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - US monthly core CPI rate in July fell short of expectations

 - Fed Barking: It may take months to meet debt relief standards

 - Fed reverse repo usage exceeds $1 trillion again in two weeks

 - U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 448,000 barrels last week

 - White House: Not asking US oil producers to increase production

 - US Senate approves $3.5 trillion budget plan

 - Nearly all Republicans in the US Senate warn against raising the debt ceiling

 - European investors invested nearly $1 billion in gold ETFs in July

 2️⃣ Financial facts and data today

 - Two monthly crude oil reports will be released on Thursday, the IEA monthly report and the OPEC monthly report.  Investors can observe the latest supply and demand situation in the crude oil market.

 - initial jobless claims from the United States through August 7 will be released, the expected value is 375,000, and the previous value is 385,000.  If the number of initial applicants continues to decline, it will further test the optimistic expectations of the US labor market.

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Check out the news happening in the last 24 hours

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - Fed Bostic: Or start reducing debt from October to December.

 - Democrats in the US Senate announce a $3.5 trillion budget plan.

 - The provisions of crypto tax under the US Infrastructure Act have not been agreed.

 - US Treasury Secretary Yellen seeks bipartisan cooperation to resolve debt ceiling issue.

 - New York Fed survey: US consumers' short-term inflation expectations maintain record highs.

 - For the first time, JOLTS US employment exceeded 10 million people, exceeding the number of unemployed people.

 - Japan may increase its economic stimulus plan

 2️⃣ Financial facts and data today

 - the August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany and the Eurozone will be published.

 - the July US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index will be released, with the expected value of 102 and the previous value of 102.5.

 - 2022, the FOMC voting committee and Federal Reserve chair Cleveland Meester will deliver speeches on inflation risks.

 - EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook report.

 - the next day, API crude oil inventories will be released for the week from the US to August 6.

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