USD/IDR to grind higher toward next resistance at 15,832 – TDS

 Bank Indonesia (BI) hiked rates by 50 bps as expected. Nonetheless, economists at TD Securities expect the USD/IDR to advance nicely toward the 15,832 resistance.

Another 50 bps hike cannot be discounted if IDR weakens aggressively

“BI hiked by another 50 bps, bringing the 7-day reverse repo rate to 4.75%. BI Governor Warjiyo noted that the hike was a ‘front-loaded, pre-emptive and forward-looking step to lower inflation expectations that are too high or overshooting’. However, we think the policy path ahead leans more on the pace of IDR depreciation given BI's historical focus on FX. Further, Warjiyo commented that the Bank wants to control the IDR to prevent imported inflation.”

“We see a gradual move for USD/IDR higher towards its next technical resistance level at 15,832 (76.4% Fib level over 5 yr-window).” 

“BI likely won't tolerate any sharp one-sided moves in IDR and another 50 bps hike cannot be discounted if IDR weakens aggressively against the USD and compared to its regional peers.”

Canada: Annual CPI eases to 6.9% in September vs. 6.8% expected

 

• Inflation in Canada falls at a slightly slower-than-expected pace.
• USD/CAD trims a part of its intraday gains in reaction to the data.

Inflation in Canada, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell to 6.9% in September from 7.0% in August, data published by Statistics Canada showed this Wednesday. This reading is slightly better than the market expectation of 6.8%.

The Bank of Canada's (BOC) Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, unexpectedly climbed to 6.0% on a yearly basis from 5.8% in August, again beating estimates for a reading of 5.6%.

The initial market reaction, however, is limited amid a goodish pickup in the US dollar demand, which continues to act as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

German government expects economy to contract by 0.4% in 2023 – Reuters

 The German government still expects the economy to tip into recession next year despite the gas price brake that was presented on Monday, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing government sources.

The economy is now expected to contract by 0.4% in 2023 and inflation is seen at 8% and 7% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Market reaction

This headline doesn't seem to be having a noticeable impact on risk mood. As of writing, Germany's DAX 30 Index was down 0.83% on a daily basis at 12,171.81 points.

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD maintains a large top, further downside ahead – Credit Suisse

 Silver maintains the top analysts at Credit Suisse have been highlighting since mid-May. Therefore, XAG/USD is expected to decline towards the $15.56 support.

Break above $21.39 remains needed to negate the top

“Silver has risen back above the crucial 61.8% retracement support of the whole 2020/21 upmove at $18.65/15, however, still maintains a large top below $21.39 and we hence expect further downside from here towards the $15.56 support from a technical analysis perspective.”

“Next resistance is seen at $20.87 and above $21.39 remains needed to negate the top.”

UK: Liz Truss wins contest to become the next UK Prime Minister

 Liz Truss won the Conservative Party leadership race to become the next British Prime Minister.

"I will deal with long-term issues on energy supply," Liz Truss said in her acceptance speech and noted that she will deal with the crisis in households' energy bills.

Additional takeaways

"I will govern as a conservative."

"I intend to deliver what we promised voters in 2019."

"I will deliver a bold plan to cut taxes and grow our economy."

"We will deliver a great victory for the conservative party in 2024."

Market reaction

The UK's FTSE 100 Index showed no immediate reaction to these comments and was last seen losing 0.6% on a daily basis. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair continues to fluctuate at around 1.1500 during the European trading hours.

Indonesia: Inflation accelerated in July – UOB

 Enrico Tanuwidjaja, Economist at UOB Group, comments on the latest inflation figures in Indonesia.

Key Takeaways

“July’s headline inflation jumped to 4.9% y/y, breaching Bank Indonesia (BI)’s 4% target upper bound for the second month in a row and currently at 7-year high, while core inflation rose to 2.9% y/y, a 28-month high, from June’s 2.6%.”

“Inflation in July continued to be driven by upward pressures from food services and restaurants and transport, in addition to housing, water, electricity and household fuel.”

“We revised our 2022 inflation forecast now to average 4% viz. 3.3% previously and for BI to hike rates now in Sep instead of in Jul.”

US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Further losses not ruled out

 

• DXY accelerates the corrective decline to the 105.30 zone.
• Immediate to the downside appears the 55-day SMA at 104.75.

DXY navigates the fourth consecutive session with losses and revisits the 105.30 region at the beginning of the week.

The index broke below the multi-session pre-FOMC consolidative theme and in doing so it has paved the way for extra decline in the short-term horizon. That said, the immediate support now turns up at the interim 55-day SMA at 104.75 ahead of the 5-month support line around 103.85.

The near-term outlook for DXY remains constructive while above this 5-month support line near 104.00.

In addition, the broader bullish view remains in place while above the 200-day SMA at 99.49.

GBP/USD strengthens beyond mid-1.2000s, hits fresh multi-week high amid weaker USD

• GBP/USD jumped to a fresh multi-week high amid the emergence of fresh USD selling.
• A positive intraday turnaround in the risk sentiment weighed on the safe-haven buck.
• Brexit woes might cap gains for the British pound ahead of the crucial FOMC decision.

The GBP/USD pair attracted some dip-buying near the 1.1960 area on Monday and shot to a nearly three-week peak during the mid-European session. The pair was last seen trading around the 1.2065-1.2070 region, up over 0.50% for the day.

Friday's better-than-expected flash UK PMI prints reaffirmed market bets for a 50 bps rate hike by the Bank of England in August and continued acting as a tailwind for the British pound. On the other hand, a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a strong intraday rally in the equity markets - weighed on the safe-haven US dollar. In fact, the USD Index languished near its lowest level since July 5 touched on Friday, which, in turn, was seen as another factor that provided a goodish lift to the GBP/USD pair.

Germany's Habeck: We want to prevent a domino effect in gas market

  

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Tuesday that they will stick to their plan of prioritizing private households in case of a gas emergency, as reported by Reuters.

"The gas market situation is tense, cannot say whether more protection measures will be needed," Habeck added. "We want to prevent a domino effect in the gas market."

Market reaction

Safe-haven flows continue to dominate the financial markets following these remarks. As of writing, Germany's DAX 30 Index was down 1.5% on the day at 12,580.50 points.

📕 Comment on Gold on April 20, 2022:

📕 Comment on Gold on April 20, 2022:

 - In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold had one day of decline from 1981 to 1943 ($38), closing the day session with a strong bearish candle around 1949. Gold has returned.  back to the upper boundary of the previous sideways range.  With Gold approaching this support zone, I think it's likely that Gold will have a rebound in the early trading session today.

 - On the H4 chart, Gold may recover to around the threshold of 1950-1951 and is expected to rise around the threshold of 1962-1965.  Here, there is a high possibility that Gold will face selling pressure and drop again.

Ukrainian Negotiator: Hard to say when next stage of direct peace talks will occur

 

Ukrainian Negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak told Reuters on Tuesday that events in Mariupol have made the negotiation process with Russia "even more complicated" and said that it is hard to say when the next direct peace talks will be possible. Russia is "seriously betting" on the second stage of its "special operation", he continued, adding that Russia aims to strengthen its negotiation position through its offensive in eastern Ukraine. 

Podolyak's remarks come after the unofficial start of the second phase of Russia's invasion of Ukraine began on Monday, with the country now focussing its attacking efforts in the east. Ukrainian officials on Monday said that Russian forces tried to break through their defenses along the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv fronts. 

Daily Update Market View on Indices

 Weekly changes: SPX500 +6.20%

The SPX500 climbed to another record level of 3,880 making its best week since November as every major group rose, except the technology group. The number of Non-farm payrolls increased by 49,000. The modest job growth highlighted a persistently difficult outlook for millions of unemployed Americans.

KEY POINTS

Weak economic data on Friday shows the risk that President Biden will push for stimulus without Republican support.

An additional stimulus package contributes to the Fed's accommodative policies, and progress in vaccine distribution will support consumer spending, which makes 70% of the U.S. GDP.

Although stocks in SPX500 continue to grow, they have done so within a very congested price range. The daily chart shows some technical issues, such as negative divergence between the price on one side and the RSI and the MACD on the other side, which may be a signal for a future downwards correction.

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The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 17.49 points or 0.62% higher to 2839.69, taking the year-to-date performance to -1.49%.

The top active stocks today were DBS, which gained 1.51%, Singtel, which gained 0.56%, OCBC Bank, which gained 0.34%, UOB, which gained 1.32% and Wilmar Intl, with a 0.29% advance.

The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained 0.49%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index rose 0.39%.

The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Consumer Goods Index, which rose 1.68%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - Wilmar International and Thai Beverage – ended 0.29% higher and 3.47% higher respectively.

The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index, which slipped 1.36%. Midas Holdings shares remained unchanged and Halcyon Agri Corporation declined 2.86%.

The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were:

• IS MSCI India (+0.31%)
• SPDR Gold Shares (-0.49%)
• STI ETF (unchanged)

The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were:

• Ascendas REIT (+1.32%)
• CapitaLand Commercial Trust (+0.68%)
• CapitaLand Mall Trust (+1.32%)

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• DBS MB ePW170612 (unchanged)
• UOB MB eCW170605 (+4.26%)

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Now Check the SGX Market Summary:

The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 19.49 points or 0.7% higher to 2813.48, taking the year-to-date performance to -2.40%. For longer term observations please go to sgx.com/research.

The top active stocks today were DBS, which gained 1.42%, Singtel, which gained 0.27%, UOB, which gained 1.41%, OCBC Bank, which gained 0.68% and Global Logistic, with a 0.25% fall.

The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained 0.95%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index rose 0.14%.

The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts Index, which rose 1.63%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - CapitaLand Mall Trust and Ascendas REIT – ended 1.82% higher and 2.67% higher respectively.

The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Technology Index, which slipped 1.55%. Silverlake Axis shares declined 0.86% and CSE Global declined 1.21%.

The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were:

• STI ETF (+0.35%)
• SPDR Gold Shares (+0.22%)
• DBXT MSCI Indonesia ETF (-0.08%)

The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were:

• Ascendas REIT (+2.67%)
• CapitaLand Mall Trust (+1.82%)
• CapitaLand Commercial Trust (+2.03%)

The most active stock warrants by value today were:

• 
  
• OCBC Bk MB eCW170306 (-1.56%)
• UOB MB eCW170605 (+7.56%)
• UOB MB eCW170201 (+10.87%)

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Wow...Good Jump of SGX Market Opening, Hot Stocks Update

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Oooops....SGX Market Down Same As Yesterday Opening

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Woooooo...!!! After US Election Result SGX Market Opening Awesome

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Here is the Market Summary:

The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 12.15 points or 0.44% higher to 2800.95, taking the year-to-date performance to -2.84%. For longer term observations please go to sgx.com/research.

The top active stocks today were DBS, which gained 1.34%, Genting Sing, which gained 5.29%, SingPost, which declined 6.97%, Global Logistic, which declined 0.97% and UOB, with a 0.27% advance.

The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained 0.59%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index rose 0.86%.

The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Basic Materials Index, which rose 2.66%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - Midas Holdings and Halcyon Agri Corporation- both ended unchanged.

The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Industrials Index, which slipped 0.76%. Jardine Matheson Holdings shares declined 3.00% and Jardine Strategic Holdings declined 1.55%.

The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were:

SPDR Gold Shares (-1.36%)
STI ETF (+0.70%)
IS MSCI India (+1.00%)

The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were:

Ascendas REIT (+0.44%)
CapitaLand Mall Trust (-0.50%)
CapitaLand Commercial Trust (-0.33%)

The most active stock warrants by value today were:

DBS MB eCW170201 (+14.49%)
DBS VT eCW170213 (+14.67%)
UOB VT eCW170213 (+0.91%)