UK PM Liz Truss's spokesman said in a statement on Friday, “we are working in preparation for a medium-term fiscal plan on October 31.”
He added that “the new PM will decide whether it will be delivered then.”
GBP/USD found some support on the above headlines, as it moved away from weekly lows at 1.1100, currently trading at 1.1130, still down 0.91% so far.
Gold prices are likely to fall back to the previous low of $1,620 as bearish momentum is set to continue, economists at ANZ Bank report.
“Strong US job reports, and higher inflation led gold to resume its downtrend, and it is likely to fall below $1,600.”
“Immediate support lies at $1,620, the previous low. A break of this support should see prices touching the lower bound of the downward channel, which will be below $1,600.
“Immediate resistance is at $1,715, and an upward break of this level would see the next resistance point at $1,800, which will also mark a reversal of downtrend.”
EUR/JPY seems to have met decent resistance around daily highs near 142.30 at the end of the week.
The continuation of the bounce off last week’s lows remains on the table in the very near term. That said, the cross could therefore extend the bullish attempt to the weekly top at 144.04 (September 20), which is deemed as the last defense for a move to the 2022 peak at 145.63 (September 12).
In the meantime, while above the key 200-day SMA at 135.84, the constructive outlook for the cross should remain unchanged.
In the view of economists at Rabobank, the US dollar is set to remain well supported for several months with the hawkish position of the Fed underpinning the attraction of the greenback as a safe haven.
“As the Fed still has a lot of work to do in taming price pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations are well anchored into the medium-term, it can be assumed that the FOMC will not be ready to relinquish its hawkish position just yet. Since this will impact risky assets, we see risk that USD strength persists into early next year.”
“We expect the USD to remain the favoured safe haven relative to either the JPY or the CHF in view of higher US short-term interest rates.”
“Given also that the eurozone is facing a difficult winter which includes the possibility of energy rationing for some businesses, we see scope for further dips in EUR/USD below parity.”
EUR/USD climbed to the proximity of 0.9990 earlier in the session, just to deflate afterwards and return to the 0.9930 region.
Against that, the inability of the pair to regain serious upside traction should keep the door to further retracement open in the near term. Extra losses face the immediate target at the 2022 low at 0.9877 (September 5) seconded by 0.9859 (December 2002 low) and then 0.9685 (October 2002 low).
The continuation of the downtrend remains in the pipeline, as the daily RSI around 36 still allows for some weakness prior to reach the oversold territory.
In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view is expected to prevail as long as it trades below the 200-day SMA at 1.0780.
Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish the monthly employment details for July later this Friday at 12:30 GMT. The Canadian economy is anticipated to have added 20K jobs during the reported month, up sharply from the 43.2K decline reported in June. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 5.0% in July from the 4.9% previous.
Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) are more optimistic about the report and explain: “We look for job growth of 38k in July, driven by a partial rebound for trade services and natural resources after their sharp decline in June. Full-time hiring should lead the increase, while stronger labour force participation should keep unemployment stable at 4.9%. We also expect to see wage growth firm to 6.0% y/y in July, although AHE (Average Hourly Earnings) should slow on a m/m basis.”
The USD/CHF pair retreated a few pips from its highest level since May 2020 touched during the first half of the European session and was last seen trading just below the mid-0.9600s.
The pair prolonged its recent strong bullish run witnessed since the beginning of this month and gained follow-through traction for the fifth successive day on Wednesday. The momentum was sponsored by sustained buying around the US dollar, which climbed to a more than two-year peak amid the prospects for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed.
Investors now expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 bps at each of its next four meetings in May, June, July and September. The bets were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish comments by influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This, along with the deteriorating global economic outlook, boosted the greenback's reserve currency status.
Expectations for rapid interest rate hikes in the US, prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and the latest COVID-19 outbreak in China have raised fears of stalling global growth. Investors now seem worried that Russia could follow through on its threat to halt gas flows to countries that refuse to pay for fuel in roubles and cut off supplies to Europe.
That said, extremely overbought conditions held back traders from placing fresh bullish bets and kept a lid on any further gains for the USD/CHF pair, at least for now. The intraday bias, however, remains tilted in favour of bulls amid the prevalent strong bullish sentiment surrounding the USD and the risk-on impulse, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc.
Market participants now look forward to second-tier US economic releases for some impetus later during the early North American session. The data, along with Fed rate hike expectations, would influence the USD price dynamics. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab some short-term opportunities around the USD/CHF pair.
Ukrainian Negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak told Reuters on Tuesday that events in Mariupol have made the negotiation process with Russia "even more complicated" and said that it is hard to say when the next direct peace talks will be possible. Russia is "seriously betting" on the second stage of its "special operation", he continued, adding that Russia aims to strengthen its negotiation position through its offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Podolyak's remarks come after the unofficial start of the second phase of Russia's invasion of Ukraine began on Monday, with the country now focussing its attacking efforts in the east. Ukrainian officials on Monday said that Russian forces tried to break through their defenses along the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv fronts.
After a tough start to the year, the AUD has rebounded convincingly to become one of the leaders in the G10. Economists at ANZ Bank expect the AUD/USD to move sideways in the near-term before staging a leg higher to the 0.75 level by year-end.
“The terms of trade improvement and a strong domestic economy are likely to keep the AUD well supported, though a challenging risk environment will keep rallies capped.”
“We believe the aussie will be mostly rangebound through the middle part of 2022 before a global growth recovery helps propel a move back to 0.75 by year-end.”
A forex trading strategy will help you to decide when to buy and when to sell a currency pair. This involves studying the fundamental and technical factors. So when it comes to choosing the best forex trading strategy, we would tell you that there is no single answer to this. All the forex trading strategies are unique and what might work for one investor might not work for another investor.
Things to be Considered Before Considering Forex Profit Strategies
While considering the best forex trading strategy for yourself, you should consider the following factors.
#1. Your Time Horizon
Are you investing for short-term, medium-term or long-term/
#2. Your Risk Bearing Capacity
What are the profit and loss targets that you have set in the forex market?
#3. Your Trading Style
Are you an Intraday trader or buy-and-hold trader?
After considering all of the above factors it is important to choose the best forex trading strategy that works for you.
Here is a list of trading strategies that work:
1. Price Action Trading
Ending the last trading week, precious metal Gold had another gaining week from 1840 to 1890 ($50) to close the weekly candle with a strong upward force. With the precious metal Gold closing with a strong increase, the possibility that at the beginning of this week's trading session, the precious metal Gold will continue to be promoted and go up.
- On the D1 daily chart time frame we can see that after 1 day of slight downtrend, the last 2 days of the week the uptrend continued with the latter peak being higher than the previous one, so the short term resistance area Gold is facing 1889-1890 will be difficult to hold in the next trading sessions.
- Switching to a shorter time frame, H4, after testing the 1889 price area again, the precious metal Gold had a slight correction but the drop was not too strong and stopped around the support level of 1865- 1870. This is also the nearest support price zone where in my opinion we can establish a buy status with Gold in today's trading session. The target will be the "old top" 1890 and expect Gold to break through and go up to the 1900-1902 price zone.
1️⃣ Yesterday's main news
- Cryptocurrencies collapsed in panic, Bitcoin once plummeted 30% to nearly $30,000.
- Fed meeting minutes hint that QE will be discussed, rate hike expectations are heating up and gold breaks below 1870.
- European Central Bank warns of financial stability risks as markets boom, but risks in cryptocurrencies are limited.
Iran's President shows significant progress in new round of Iran nuclear talks.
- Netanyahu said after calling Biden that he would continue military operations in the Gaza Strip.
- EIA gasoline inventories fell the most since the week of March 5, 2021.
- Tesla's plunge since January has wiped out Tesla's market value by $300 billion.
2️⃣ Today's important facts and data
- On the side of the Central Bank, today, the President of the European Central Bank Lagarde gave a speech. Today , Governor of the Bank of Canada McClum held a press conference.
- In terms of numbers, the number of initial jobless claims from the US through May 15 was published, and the market is expected to drop to a new low.
- In addition, at the next day, the price of New York crude oil for June term completed the last trading session on the floor.
Visit- https://www.moneyliferesearch.com/
✍️ Further analysis USDCHF:
- At the end of last week session, USDCHF currency pair closed with a bullish pinbar candle. With this closing, in my opinion, the USDCHF is likely to be a recovery week this week. So we will wait for the price to bounce back so we can establish a buy position on USDCHF.
- Switching to a shorter time frame, H4, the possibility that USDCHF will bounce back around 0.9118 where we can establish a buy position with USDCHF with the nearest target of 0.9171, which is also the MA20 on the timeframe. D1 daily chart.
For Forex Signals: Fill Out The Contact Form,
In last week's session we saw the EURUSD pair had a strong 1 week from 1.1736 to 1.1926 and created together with the next 2 weeks a pair of bullish reversal candles in the short term. For a trend to be called sustainable, it usually tends to go down and back to move up, and so in my opinion. We will sell short and wait for a buying opportunity on this pair.
- Switching to a shorter time frame rather than the daily chart, we can see that in the last 4 trading sessions the EURUSD pair is fluctuating in a narrow range from 1.1919 - 1.1870 combined with the above judgment, in my opinion. The high potential from here on the EURUSD pair will have a slight downside correction.
- The safe target of this correction is around 1.1865 and expected to be around 1.1846. Here we liquidate the order and wait for the next buy signal.
(Currently EU prices are 1.1890)
1️⃣ Series about American - Chinese Straight:
"The US Commerce Department said Thursday that it has added seven Chinese supercomputer entities to the US economic blacklist for supporting China's military efforts."
2️⃣ Fed President - J. Powell's speech at the IMF Conference tonight:
- "Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that an increase in spending as the US economy reopens, coupled with supply bottlenecks, is likely to push prices higher in this year, but will not lead to price increases year after year constituting inflation.
- "We think there will be bullish pressure that can be passed on to consumers in the form of price increases - we think that is only temporary," said Powell at an International Monetary Fund event, Note that inflation has been at a 25-year low, nurturing a sentiment of low inflation expectations.
- “If inflation is sudden, contrary to our expectation, the move means above the level we are comfortable with - and especially inflation expectations ... if we see them moving continuous and essential on the level we are comfortable with, we will react to that. "
=> There are 2 main ideas: Price may rise but does not mean inflation, and as long as we see inflation above the 2% target and there is real pressure, we will see Fed action, otherwise, the interest rate will remain low Zero.
3️⃣ Notable facts and economic data today
- Tonight the US announced the PPI producer price index and Canada will announce the employment index in March.
1️⃣ USD is solid when the US economy is outperformed
- The dollar remained firm in early European trading on Thursday, close to a multi-month high on expectations of strong US economic growth, supported by more and over-fiscal stimulus Vaccine rollout is accelerating.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced his long-awaited $ 2 trillion infrastructure rebuild on Wednesday, which will be a new pump of money into the economy after the pack The US $ 1.9 trillion bailout was recently approved.
Wednesday's ADP report showed US private sector job payrolls increased by 517,000 positions last month, which is not a bad step ahead of the official US nonfarm payrolls today. American ants will add 650,000 jobs by March.
2️⃣ ECB commits to continue to support the economy
- ECB chief economist Philip Lane said: The rise in inflation in the euro area is due to temporary factors, the underlying trend is still weak, so the ECB needs to maintain support for the economy. .
- Inflation has steadily increased this year and is likely to exceed ECB's target by nearly 2% in the coming months, due to rising energy costs, rising taxes, household consumption likely to increase, and technical factors. technology related to pandemic shock.
Nominal and real yields have moved in the opposite direction in recent weeks, with nominal yields rising to pre-pandemic levels while real yields are trending to decline to their lowest levels earlier this year.
3️⃣ Today's notable facts and data
- At 20:30 the United States will announce the nonfarm employment population after the March seasonal adjustment. The expected value is 647,000, much higher than the previous value of 379,000. Markets are concerned that shortened US Treasury market times could cause the market to suddenly expand.
At 23:00, Fed Bostic will give a speech.
- Affected by Easter, the US stock exchanges, European countries, Australia and Hong Kong are all closed for one day. CME precious metals and US crude are suspended for all day, and ICE Brent crude contracts are suspended for the whole day. Foreign exchange contracts end before their expiration
Yesterday's main news
- Biden officially announced giant infrastructure plans.
The number of ADP jobs in the United States rose by 517,000 in March, a record high since September last year.
2?? Today's notable facts and data
- At 19:00, the 15th OPEC and non-OPEC Oil Ministers Meeting is held, investors can continue to pay attention to the oil-producing countries' declaration of the cut. Quantity.
- At 20:30, the United States will publish the initial number of claims for unemployment benefits until March 27.
- Due to the Easter holiday, the total number of oil rigs in the United States for the week up to April 2 will be announced before 01:00 am on Friday.
Go With Money Life Research- https://www.moneyliferesearch.com/
Monthly change: BTCUSD -4.46%
After skyrocketing to 42,000 USD in early 2021, Bitcoin experienced a 29% drop on 11 January amid profit-taking by its holders. The behaviour of the first cryptocurrency in January is vague, as many traders were expecting continued growth, most of them, as can be seen from the charts, are trying to take profits with sharp jumps.
Higher volatility is caused by conflicting information. Despite the heads of the ECB and the U.S. Treasury Secretary's statements, it is necessary to introduce control over the cryptocurrency market soon due to fears that criminal schemes are taking place, as all investors purchase all bitcoins when it drops. From a technical point of view, the 30,000 USD level looks strong. According to Coindesk.com, many university funds place their assets in cryptocurrency, citing sources. They claim that through the crypto exchange, Coinbase, and other platforms, Harvard, Yale, Brown, and Michigan Universities have invested in Bitcoin. A source told the publisher that some of the funds could have opened accounts on the exchange 18 months ago.
However, even though institutional investors have started to invest in Bitcoin, many analysts believe that there is not enough money supply for new jumps of the cryptocurrency to the level of 50,000 USD and above in the near future.
Much depends on the implementation of additional stimulus measures in the United States and the reaction of the world's fiscal authorities to the first cryptocurrency's sharp growth. We may see increased volatility with this asset in the near term.
When investors look to hedge against governments or monetary policy or even just the prospect of fiat debasement, they’ve long looked to the most precious of precious metals to hold as a store of value. I’m of course talking about Gold, and its role in economics spans back for pretty much as long as we’ve followed economics. This helps to explain Gold price action from last summer when prices were flying higher in response to the Fed’s actions devised to offset slowdowns from the coronavirus pandemic. Gold prices began to surge in June and by August, prices had jumped up to a fresh all-time high of $2,075. But that’s when the proverbial music stopped in the breakout; price action began to digest and here we are almost six months later and bulls remain in wait.
