In the last trading week, precious metal Gold was almost flat in the range from 1792-1770. Closing the weekly candle with a bearish candle, but this bearish force doesn't say much. With Gold accumulating waiting for a new trend, in my opinion at the beginning of today's session we can trade within this range.
We will wait to sell around the 1795 price zone and consider buying around 1770. If Gold breaks out of one of these two price zones, we will wait for a pullback and then follow that trend.
- Ending yesterday's session, precious metal Gold had 1 day of gain as analyzed when from 1783 to 1799, closing the day around the threshold of 1796. Although closing the session with a bullish candle, look at it. Overall yesterday Gold ran in two directions and has not yet broken the psychological resistance around 1800.
- Switching to the H4 time frame we can see that after many tests of 1784 the price bounced up quickly to the resistance around 1800. Currently, the above two price zones are still holding and showing no signs of breaking. My personal opinion is that in the beginning of today's trading session we can trade within this range and wait for the signal to break for the next trend.
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Gold
MARKET VIEW
Weekly changes: XAUUSD +1.89%
Gold prices touched the 1,813 USD level before pulling back after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he expected inflation to ease next year and that the U.S. central bank is on the way to begin winding down its stimulus.
Meanwhile, the comments from the Fed Chairman show he expects inflation to remain high well into next year potentially.
BULLISH TRIGGERS
The high inflation remaining in the market will be an underlying supportive factor for gold in the weeks and months ahead.
BEARISH TRIGGERS
The cutting of stimulus programs by the Fed next month will be a lowering factor for gold prices.
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XAUUSD H1
Yesterday's market price did not show any reactions to the current price except that the $ 3 movement from the 1787.00 prices is counted as a horizontal market movement. Today the market opens at 1796.00 where the price is the height of the previous market price.
From the technical aspect what can be seen here is, the price is testing at the last high, and these are the nearest support and resistance levels, among them are:
S1: 1793.00
S2: 1787.00
S3: 1777.00
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R1: 1799.00
R2: 1805.00
R3: 1815.00
So between each of these levels you can see if there is any breakout accompanied by other techniques, it can be used as a trading guide and head to the next nearest level to be used as a take profit.
So the question is, will today's Friday market be able to further increase the current market price, or vice versa. Let’s take a look at when the US market opens tonight.
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XAUUSD H1
The rise in the market price that took place yesterday after being tested at the opening price of 1754.00 did rise up to the level of 1769.00
from this $ 15 increase is the market price today able to make an increase or even follow the original trend where the downtrend will occur following the big bearish in the past?
From the current chart today, I see a rejection at the price of 1763.00 which is the first resistance area after the market opened this morning. Continuing that, the price also has confluence on the trendline area in the M15 timeframe tested.
These are the support and resistance levels of gold today:
R1: 1763.00
R2: 1769.00
R3: 1779.00
--------------------
S1: 1757.00
S2: 1751.00
S3: 1741.00
The price opened today at 1760.00, from Monday’s chart to the current market. The majority of the movement is still in a horizontal position so looking from this potential, short term trading can be done in the following areas.
Trading management 1: 1.5 to 1: 2 can be used as a guide to place a good risk reward in current trades.
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In the last hours of last week's trading session, precious metal Gold had bounced to 1781 but then fell back to $26 to 1755, closing the day session with a bullish candle with a long beard. along with it is also closing the weekly candle with a bearish candle. With the closing of the weekly candle as well as the daily candle, it shows that the upward force is weakened, so in my opinion at the beginning of today's session, the selling pressure of this precious metal will appear, selling priority will be today's strategy.
- Moving to the H4 time frame, we can see that apart from the last weekend's sweeping candle, the range is still in the sideways zone and has not shown any signs of breaking out. So around 1765 is still an area where we can establish a sell position with the target being the lower band of this sideway 1750-1755.
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Yesterday’s market price decline, occurred after a breakout that occurred in the support area with a morubozu candle on the H1 timeframe.
So through the current chart now what can be seen through the current potential? The current chart is uptrend after the market opened and did not pass yesterday's lows.
Continuing that, I see this rise is a retracement that took place in the early morning and the possibility of the price being able to reach at 1743.00 where it is the closest resistance area to the current price.
In addition, at the price there is a confluence where the support price and has a trendline drawn through the timeframe M15, so I will look at the chart if there is a reversal movement, the mark as an entry point will be done.
Accompanied by risk management between 1: 2-1: 3 can be taken at a lot fixed rate according to the available account capacity.
The price seen as a whole has a breakout at the lowest price, it is likely that if the US session opens, traders can see an interesting movement through gold now, that is in case of momentum.
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Gold inched higher shortly after the New York session on Monday despite a rise in Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar. An overnight reversal to the downside in the U.S. stock indexes may be helping to underpin prices, but more than likely, the market may have found a sweet spot on the chart where it is neither too bullish nor too bearish.
- This pattern is a continuation event that pauses before it refreshes lower. Medium-term momentum has turned negative and generated a crossover signal.
Technical View
- A sustained move over 1758 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 1762.90. Taking out 1762.90 could trigger an acceleration into a resistance cluster at 1787 to 1788.
- A sustained move under 1758 will be the early sign of weakness.
MARKET VIEW
Weekly changes: XBRUSD +4.34%
The oil prices are rebounding to multi-year highs. XBRUSD settled near a three-year high at 77.25 USD, its best level since October 2018.
BULLISH TRIGGERS
Oil demand will be growing steadily amid the ongoing economic recovery while the supply outlook remains stable thanks to production discipline by OPEC+. The latest EIA report shows that U.S. crude stockpiles declined for the seventh consecutive week. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.5 million barrels last week. India’s oil imports hit a three-month peak in August.
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BEARISH TRIGGERS
There might be a significant downwards correction, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. He notes that the last two influential crude declines in 2018 and 2020 were almost tick-for-tick with SPX500. The 20-quarter correlation between the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index and SPX500 currently sits at 0.90, the highest reading since 1960. The BI analyst says the last time the correlation peaked was back in 2013, followed by the spectacular oil price crash of 2014, which then spread to the rest of the commodities complex.
XAUUSD H1
Today’s market price opened showing the gold market making $ 10 momentum from early this morning. But whether this potential will change or continue to increase to a higher level.
From the analysis done, I see the market is now in an overall flat state, this happened after the fall in sentiment news on the new. So I looked at the aspect of short-term trading that can be done at this point.
In addition, there is also the probability that the price will be able to climb more if the price of 1760.00, the candlestick manages to close on the H4 timeframe, most likely an increase can occur after that.
And these are among the prices that can be used as a guide today, among them are:
1748.00
1752.00
1758.00
1768.00
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GOLD prices closed at $1,767.80, after setting a high of $1,788.25, and a low of $1,765.25. After surging for two consecutive sessions, gold dropped on Wednesday, amid the strength of the US dollar. On Wednesday, the greenback was strong across the board, reaching 93.51, which was its highest level since August 20. The US dollar pushed the price of gold down after the Federal Reserve signaled that it would ease its monthly bond purchases by next year and increase interest rates sooner than expected.
The appeal for the yellow metal was subdued after the US Federal Reserve mentioned in its latest policy meeting on Wednesday that tapering of economic support would begin this year, and interest rates could potentially rise next year, in response to inflation.
As a result, the US Dollar Index reached a one-month high, decreasing the appeal of gold. The precious metal is often used a hedge against higher inflation. However, it tends to lose its value if the Fed increases its interest rates or reduces its support for the economy.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed was pushing ahead with its research into implementing its digital currency.
The Fed has also revealed its plans to release a paper on the matter shortly. According to Powell, no decision has been made regarding this issue as yet, and the Fed is not under any pressure to rush into a decision like this without doing proper research of its own.
Powell also said that the Federal Reserve could wrap up the tapering of its bond purchases by the middle of the next year. The central bank has been buying $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, to support economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. These comments helped the US Dollar Index to achieve its highest level in one month and weighed heavily on the precious metal, turning its momentum red for the day. At 19:00 GMT, the existing home sales for August came in, remaining in line with the expectations of 5.87M. It had zero impact on the prices of the US dollar and GOLD.
Gold – XAU/USD – Technical Outlook
Gold has fallen below the pivot point support level of 1,773, towards the next support level of 1,759. Gold prices will be exposed to an additional support mark of 1,750 if they break below the 1,759 level. A bullish crossover at 1,773 would also open the yellow metal to the 1,781 level.
Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1,759.29 1,782.29
1,750.77 1,796.77
1,736.29 1,805.29
Pivot Point: 1,773.77
GOLD has completed a 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement at 1,781 on the 4-hour timeframe. The close below this level has triggered a sell-off in the precious metal. The RSI and Stochastic indicators are both in the sell zone, but the 50 SMA at 1,773 provides resistance. As a result, the bearish bias reigns supreme below 1,773 and vice versa.
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The market which was active last night saw an increase in the price to reach the level of 1780.00 also testing the small resistance area found last week.
From the chart shows the market is moving bullish trending on the H1 timeframe and the market reaction now shows a horizontal market movement taking place after yesterday’s rise.
So through this chart what is the potential that could happen to gold at the moment? In my opinion, there are 2 probabilities that can happen at this point. For certain reasons as follows:
Situation 1: The fixed price continues to rise to a higher level if it manages to break at the price of 1780.00 and there is a retracement at that price.
Situation 2: The price is moving horizontally and showing a downtrend tendency because the current price has a confluence on the past resistance area as well as the trendline that was tested yesterday. As well as at the current price there was a candlestick reversal in the last few hours.
So through these two situations, traders need to look more closely at the lower timeframe to make a trade as well as get the best space and opportunity to trade.
If looking for an opportunity to buy, the price of 1775.00- 1770.00 will be the nearest support level at this point.
If looking for an opportunity to sell it is better to wait for the price to make a breakout on the trendline area.
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Currently, precious metal Gold is facing a strong resistance zone around 1780 and in my opinion, it is likely that Gold will have a slight correction here and we can establish a sell position. down at this price zone with the target around 1755-1760.
During Asian trading hours, the market trades lightly, investors are waiting for the Fed meeting, and the market has digested all the information and sentiment. Therefore, the market is currently maintaining a neutral status. Before the meeting, the market trend may not be large and clear.
Tonight, the Fed will hold an important meeting on interest rates, in which the "dot plot" will be announced. Before the meeting, the market may not be too volatile.
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The market that did a retracement yesterday, has reached at the resistance area at 1765.00, through this indicator what is the potential to be done today?
I see the current chart which is in the resistance area as well as at the current price of the candlestick showing the reaction of the beginning of the downtrend as the engulfing candle has already taken place. In addition, yesterday's price also tested the trendline area where there is a confluence at the price of 1765.00
From this probability, I think that the market is able to decline again because in the major timeframe the price is still dominated by the downtrend, and the rise that happened yesterday was just a retracement that happened. This allows long -term trading to be done.
Followed by effective trade management. If I were the one doing this trade, I would choose a risk reward of 1: 5 if the market really was gaining momentum. Because keep in mind that the market is still in the horizontal zone from last week, if yesterday’s low price is successfully broken then, the market is able to continue the stronger downtrend.
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Currencies
Weekly changes: EURUSD -0.69% , GBPUSD -0.75% , USDJPY +0.16%, AUDUSD -1.09% , USDCAD +0.74%
The EURUSD pair finished Friday at a monthly low of 1.17239. At the same time, the American consumer prices showed their slowest pace in half a year. The market anticipated the CPI signal as the peak of the local inflation. However, the greenback's strength determined the pair's behaviour afterwards.
GBPUSD was the second-worst performed significant pair. The pair closed at 1.37260, repeating the lows of the previous week. The BoE will hold its monetary policy this week, the day after the Fed's meeting. These events will add volatility to the pair.
USDJPY reached 110.152 in the mid-week but closed Friday a bit lower, at 109.955. The pair fluctuated to the lows of 109.100, affected by the American debt ceiling turbulences but managed to gain a positive result within a week.
AUDUSD had the weakest performance level among the majors last week. The pair closed at 0.72608, showing a decline for the second straight week.
USDCAD outperformed all majors last week. The pair touched 1.27720 and slightly consolidated by the end of Friday, closing at 1.27657.
BULLISH TRIGGERS
USDJPY remained positive at the end close of the week. The bullish greenback paired the growth of U.S. Treasury yields, giving the currency pair an advantage over the negative American debt ceiling sentiment.
USDCAD climbed to the monthly highest level. The Canadian dollar weakened due to the oil's decline last Friday and the forthcoming Canadian elections.
BEARISH TRIGGERS
Besides the U.S.dollar's current strength, the ECB's official stated the local inflation expectations to continue to accelerate until November. That brought EURUSD more extra impulses for lower moves.
The U.K. retail sales actual data showed -3.5% than the estimated levels. The concerns on the British economic recovery led to GBPUSD decline.
AUDUSD has been declining throughout the month. The ongoing instability in China, the Australian major trading partner, weighs on the AUD. On the other hand, the latest Australian job report showed the most significant job loss since May 2020. The RBA Minutes, released this week, will explain the impact of the monetary steps of the central bank towards the crisis' overcome.
The price which is still in a flat state is not able to break on the large support and resistance areas, only being at the level of 50 pips from 1785.00 to 1795.00
From this movement, the short-term trading potential is seen to be the focus as this expectation will continue to occur if the market price is only in the horizontal zone now. Meanwhile, the levels of 1795.00, 1790.00, and 1785.00 will be the nearest support and resistance levels at this time.
In doing short-term trading, the first aspect that needs to be emphasized is the key level where the candlestick does a rejection at that level because this trading opportunity can be seen clearly at this key level.
In my opinion, in a trade like this, the confluence is needed to see the potential movement from the technical policy because, at present, there is no sentiment that can push the moving market for a larger movement.
I see, from the broad overview of this gold chart, the downtrend is still dominating the current market price. If trading is to be done, looking for selling potential is better at this point until the target is at yesterday’s low.
This short-term trading risk can take between 1: 1-1: 2 with a minimum lot size and the use of the risk of 1% of the equity available on the trading account, because the potential to buy and sell at this point will be seen.
Finally, if tonight the US opens stronger, most likely the 1785.00 prices could be broken from the support level to the resistance.
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- At the end of the last session, precious metal Gold had a strong decline week from 1830 to 1780 ($50) and closed the week session with a bearish press around the threshold of 1787 with an overwhelming bearish force compared to the previous session. with the previous week and my personal opinion in the early trading of this week precious metal Gold will continue to be under downward pressure.
- Switching to the daily chart time frame, precious metal Gold in the last 3 trading days, Gold still fluctuates below the threshold of 1805 and in my opinion, the 1783 support area is unlikely to stand if there is another falling session. more points so in today's session we are waiting for a sell-off with precious metal Gold is at the nearest resistance around 1794-1797 with a safe target around 1783 and beyond 1775.
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(Specific and intraday strategies will be updated - Gold price is currently being analyzed)
- In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold, after bouncing up to 1800, fell to 1783 and closed the session with a bullish candle around 1794. With the end of the day with a bullish candle and forming a reversal candlestick pair and in my opinion, it is likely that in early trading today this precious metal's uptrend will continue.
- On the H4 time frame, we can see that for this metal to rally, the 1800 Gold resistance will have to be broken and if Gold breaks this price range, the 1808-1812 threshold will be the price zone where the precious metal is located. Gold towards. In the opposite direction, the price support area pushes this precious metal up around 1788, where we can establish a buy position with the precious metal Gold with the target as I mentioned above.
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The market price that declined to break the support area the day before kept the current price below the lowest price.
At the current price level, 1790.00 became the meeting point after the resistance price became support last night. And now the continuation of the movement sees the tendency of the market price which is likely to continue the decline again at least at the price of 1785.00
So what is the potential at this point? I think that the market will make a horizontal movement on these two prices before explaining the stronger movement. If not for the momentum today then the level of 1785.00- 1790.00- 1795.00 will be the nearest resistance and support area.
Apart from that, short -term trading can be done at this point as the current price is below 1790.00 and the trendline tested in the last few minutes.
If I choose to trade at this time, the 1: 1.5 risk will be the risk management that will be applied in the trade with a stoploss of 30 pips from the price of 1790.00
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The strong decline that took place yesterday has hit 300 pips from the retracement price in the early hours of yesterday. The decline reached at its lowest price since the NFP was released the previous day.
Continuation from yesterday's decline, is the price potential able to make an increase or even continue the decline like yesterday?
This analysis is made in the early morning and sees from the price movement that is in the area of 1795.00 where it is the resistance price that has been successfully broken and then becomes support at this point, but the confirmation is still not seen because, at the current price, the candle has not managed to pass above lowest price yesterday.
So in my opinion, there are 2 probabilities that could happen at this point. First, the price makes an increase because of the price of the above reason, or second the price shows a horizontal movement before being able to see a clearer setup in the future.
Since at this point, the market is not showing a mature reaction at the current price, I chose not to trade on gold at this point until the market shows a real uptrend or downtrend reaction after a particular setup is clearly indicated.
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Buy GOLD between price 1796 to 1797 and buy limit at 1793
SL: 1786
TP: 1801 1806 Target Hittttl🎯
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