📕 Comment on Gold on December 14, 2021

 After bouncing up to 1791 Gold fell exactly as analyzed in 1782 and sideway at this price range.  Closing the day session with a bullish candle around 1786. With this precious metal still flat, not much breakout yet so my personal view remains the same, we can trade.  within this range.

 - Maintain a sell signal around 1790 as a strategy and consider buying around 1770. If Gold breaks one of these two price zones, we will wait for a pullback and then follow that trend.

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Today's Gold Important News

Gold price forecast: Who’s up for a buy trade over $1,754?

Despite the various negative headlines, the price of the yellow metal failed to extend its previous three-day upward rally, turning sour around the $1,760 level, amid a stronger US dollar and a riskier market sentiment. Today, during the Asian trading session, the gold price failed to extend its upward trend, becoming depressed around the $1,760 level, as the US dollar gathered upside momentum on the day.

The US Dollar Index climbed from the lower levels to an intra-day high of around 94.00, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. Thus, the bullish bias in the US dollar was seen as one of the key factors that put some selling pressure on the dollar-denominated commodity, gold. In addition to this, the global equity markets have been flashing green since the day started, which tends to undermine the safe-haven metal prices. The risk sentiment was backed by the renewed hopes surrounding the US stimulus package.

XAU/USD

Currently, the yellow metal is trading at 1,760.06, and consolidating between 1,757.86 and 1,770.16. Moving on, traders seem cautious about placing any strong positions ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. A hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve would diminish the demand for gold. If the Fed raises interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which pays no interest, will increase.Despite the faster spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and the escalating US-China tussle, the market trading sentiment succeeded in putting a stop to its losing streak of earlier in the day, drawing some fresh bids for the day. The renewed hopes of an infrastructure spending package could also be supporting the stock futures. US President Joe Biden showed his willingness to trim the demand for infrastructure spending, which favoured the market sentiment in Asia.

Meanwhile, Japan’s new PM, Fumio Kishida, warmly welcomes global leaders, which indicates progressive tie-ups, as the global giants overcome the pandemic with faster jabbing rates. Peviously released economic data also increased optimism about the recovery of the US economy, which positively impacted the market trading sentiment. On the data front, US New Factory Orders came in above the forecasts, surging by 1.2% in August, which is well above the market forecast of a 1% rise. The positive appearance of US stock futures highlights the risk-on sentiment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven metal, GOLD.

Stronger US dollar weighs on gold

Despite the risk-on market mood, the broad-based US dollar maintained its early-day upward rally and remained well bid on the day. The US Dollar Index surged from the lower levels and stood strong near 94.00. The higher US 10-year benchmark Treasury Yields added to the upward pressure on the USD prices, which rose two basis points to 1.48%, after testing a high of 1.56% in June. In the meantime, the previously released upbeat US data also played a significant role in supporting the US currency. The rise in the value of the greenback kept bullion prices under pressure, as the price of the XAU/USD is inversely related to the value of the US dollar.

The long-lasting US-China tensions also got an additional lift after the US condemned Chinese activity near Taiwan. The remarks by US Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai, who cited Beijing’s shortfall in meeting the phase one deal targets, also added to the drama. The suspension of trading in Evergrande stock in Hong Kong has fueled speculation that the bankrupt real estate firm is being sold to pay off debts.

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Let's have an look on XAUUSD

 XAUUSD M15

The rise occurred last night after the market price tested the support level of 1725.00 and failed to break and then passed a confirmation reversal on the M15 timeframe.  An increase of $ 40 occurred from the lowest price to yesterday’s highest price.

 So through today’s chart what is the potential that could happen at the current price at the moment?  I see from the trend of the market price which is dominated by the uptrend as well as there was a clear set up early this morning after the market-tested on the trendline area as well as at the price of 1752.00

 In addition, the market expects to continue the rise guided to the test level at the nearest resistance area between 1755.00 - 1752.00 and 1746.00

 This is one of the closest support areas that can be retraced because in the current situation the price has entered the horizontal zone.

 If choosing the current market to trade I advise to put confluence on every trade made so that you can see more clearly what will happen after that.

 From the overall picture the market can rise again up and there is a breakout at yesterday’s highest price in the event of a breakout at that level.

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Analysis on Gold

  - In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold, after bouncing up to 1800, fell to 1783 and closed the session with a bullish candle around 1794. With the end of the day with a bullish candle and forming a reversal candlestick pair and in my opinion, it is likely that in early trading today this precious metal's uptrend will continue.

 - On the H4 time frame, we can see that for this metal to rally, the 1800 Gold resistance will have to be broken and if Gold breaks this price range, the 1808-1812 threshold will be the price zone where the precious metal is located.  Gold towards.  In the opposite direction, the price support area pushes this precious metal up around 1788, where we can establish a buy position with the precious metal Gold with the target as I mentioned above.

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Oil slid. 72.07 USD (-0.33 USD )

Oil

MARKET VIEW

Weekly changes: XBRUSD -0.59%

Last week, XBRUSD slightly slipped after a less-than-expected U.S. jobs report indicated a patchy economic recovery that could mean slower fuel demand during a resurgent pandemic. Brent crude settled lower at 72.07 USD a barrel.

BULLISH TRIGGERS

The concerns that U.S. supply would remain limited in the wake of Hurricane Ida, which cut production from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, supported oil prices. Oil production in the region remained primarily halted in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, with 1.7 million barrels, or 93%, of daily crude output, suspended.

BEARISH TRIGGERS

The employment report impacted by the Delta variant shows that the coronavirus is still moving oil demand. Nonfarm payrolls missed expectations with an increase of 235,000 jobs amid softening demand for services and persistent worker shortages as COVID-19 infections soared. The United States pledged to press the OPEC+ to do more to support economic recovery by unleashing production.

SELL LIMIT CRUDE OIL AT 69.75

SL 70.15

TP 69.55 69.35

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Gold comment on August 26, 2021

 After rising to 1797 in the early morning of yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold dropped to 1782 and closed the session around 1790. With the closing of the session with a bearish candle combined with  The previous 2 next day candles created a short-term reversal pattern and we will wait for a good price zone to establish a sell position in today's session.

 - Considering the short-term time frame is H4 in my opinion we can wait for the price to recover around 1794-1797 to establish a short position with precious metal Gold with a safe target around the threshold.  1784 and beyond 1779.

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Central bank rundown as AUDCAD sell bias opens up

 Trouble down under

On the face of it, there was not much change in July. No rate hikes are expected until actual inflation is within the 2-3% range and supportive monetary conditions (low rates etc) are to be maintained in order to support a return to full employment and for inflation to be consistent with this target. The labor market is still, like June's meeting, not expected to be tight enough to spur higher age growth (and therefore inflation with it) until 2024. The economic recovery is still regarded as stronger than 'earlier expected and is forecast to continue. The three-year yield target remained the same keeping to the April 2024 bond as its 3-year yield target instead of pushing it further down the line to the November 2024 bond. Bond purchases were extended until mid-November, but reduced by $1 billion a week. So, a more confident meeting on balance from the RBA.

The takeaway

The central scenario remains that the condition for a lift in the cash rate will not be met until 2024". The data the RBA want to see is inflation in the 2-3% range and spurred on by wages growth that exceeds 3%. A temporary spike in inflation is not stated to be enough to move the RBA for now.

COVID-19 resurgence

Headwinds now remain for the Australian dollar right now as the nation struggles to manage the rising delta variant. Australia's New South Wales Premier says that he will tighten COVID-19 lockdown rules in the worst impacted areas of Sydney. The sharp rise of the Delta variant has resulted in a number of strict lockdowns in Australia and that looks set to continue. The RBA is meeting next week and Westpac sees that the RBA may now increase their tapering levels to $6 billion per week.

This is especially the case with the recent dip in Iron ore prices this last week.

European Central Bank, President Christine Lagarde, -0.50%, Meets September

Dovish tilt in the context.

The meeting on July 23 kept interest rates kept unchanged and both the size of the bond purchases (PEPP) were unchanged at €1.85 trillion and AP purchases are continuing at the speed of €20 billion a month. Going into the ECB meeting there were expectations that, after the ECB's strategic review, the ECB would be revealing a more dovish hand. This was hinted at in the run-up to the meeting by Christine Lagarde who said that the PEPP could 'change' into something else. However, on Friday, July 16 a sources report said that, due to disagreement, the bond purchases would be left unchanged/not mentioned until September's meeting. This would have marked a shift from the June 10th meeting where sources piece revealed that three ECB board members were in favor of bond tapering.

'Marginal' disagreement

Christine Lagarde noted in the press conference that there was some 'marginal disagreement'.It was not surprising as within the GC are fiscal conservatives like Germany and the more liberally minded Italians, so getting an agreement was always going to be tough. Germany's Weidmann & Belgium's Wunsch opposed the ECB's new guidance according to Bloomberg/sources as it signaled a commitment to lower rates for longer. In addition to these two members, sources note that several more voiced objections due to the length of commitment and a lack of clarity. The ECB will accept an overshoot of inflation which they expect to be temporarily higher. Remember, they now have a symmetric 2% target. Some members wanted to aim for 'at least 2% inflation, not just 2% inflation.

The takeaway?

The ECB did not deny the dovish expectations, only disappointed with a lack of an action at their last meeting. It looks like setting up for a lower for longer message in September, but with internal disagreement. The path of least resistance is to see it as euro bearish until proven otherwise.

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Rising oil prices boosted by rising stock markets and improved demand outlook

 [10:33 AM, 7/30/2021] +65 3165 7233: Oil prices posted their biggest one-week gain on Thursday, as investors expected strong demand.  New York crude oil futures rose 1.7%.  US stocks rose to record highs;  in the second quarter, US GDP growth was slower than expected and household spending posted its biggest increase in decades, highlighting demand for oil and other commodities;  Crude oil prices were also supported by a weaker US dollar.

 TD Bart Melek, head of commodities and equities strategy, said that there is almost no doubt that risk appetite has increased across the board, which is certainly boosting the market.

 Oil prices fluctuated in July and are likely to post a second-month decline since October. Rising production and a rebound in the new crown epidemic have put pressure on;  The spread of delta strains has led to the re-implementation of restrictions in some areas.  It is expected that global markets will remain tight into the end of the year.

 At the same time, investors are still paying attention to the financial reports of the US oil industry.  Although oil companies maintain discipline and focus on shareholder returns, rising oil prices can encourage increased production;  Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at Bank of America Wealth Management, said that it is only a matter of time before output increases in the US, not that it will or will not;

 West Texas Intermediate September futures rose $1.23 to $73.62 a barrel;  Brent oil for September delivery rose $1.31 to close at $76.05 per barrel.  The contract expires on Friday.

[10:34 AM, 7/30/2021] +65 3165 7233: US dollar drops to one-month low on dovish Fed tone and weaker-than-expected US GDP data

 The US dollar fell to a one-month low on Thursday. A day before the Federal Reserve announced that the US job market still needed to "make some progress" before support measures.  economic support is withdrawn, the US dollar continues to gain momentum in a month has lost momentum.

 Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA Americas, said: "The strength of the US dollar against the euro appears to be over, as the economy slows to make significant progress in the job market.  and the Fed seems a long way from scaling back its debt purchases."

 The US dollar index is still up 1.6% since the Fed's June meeting, after the Fed switched to a hawkish stance.  The US GDP data released on Thursday gave little support to the index.

 The data showed that despite the strong growth of the US economy in the second quarter thanks to large-scale government support, the growth rate remained lower than analysts expected.

 On Thursday, the US Commerce Department announced last quarter's quarterly GDP growth rate of 6.5%, much lower than the 8.5% forecasted by economists surveyed by Reuters.  .

 Simon Harvey, senior forex market analyst at Monex Europe, said, “Due to the stability of the risk environment and the market digesting Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks yesterday, the dollar  The US dollar was under pressure today and interest rate GDP growth in the second quarter was almost two percentage points lower than expected.  This has barely alleviated the pressure on the dollar.

 “If the yield curve continues to slope slowly and risk appetite persists, the dollar decline could accelerate over the next few weeks,” OANDA’s Moya said.

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Yesterday's main news

  Gold closes below $1,800, Bitcoin suddenly surges.

 - U.S. new home sales unexpectedly fell to new lows since April 2020.

 - US Rep. Portman: 90% of the infrastructure bill has been completed.

 The US military will end its combat mission in Iraq.

 - Bank of England member Frigg: Below lower interest rates, further rate cuts are positive.

 - Employment rates in OECD countries increased slightly to 66.8% in the first quarter of 2021.

 Amazon denies that it will accept Bitcoin payments this year.

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Preliminary assessment of the market on July 27

 Preliminary assessment of the market on July 27.

There are few important economic data to be released today - However, "US consumer confidence" data scheduled for release at should also be kept in mind.

 The market is still in a state of waiting for the late night fomc meeting tomorrow night.  Therefore, news related to the Covid-19 epidemic should also pay attention to investors.

 Currently, the market is expected to continue moving sideways, waiting for fomc.

 1. Gold 7/27:

 The expected range is still running in the 1790-1810 zone.  Buy and sell near this border area.

Buy Limit #XAUUSD #GOLD AT 1790 and 1792

SL: 1785

TP: 18XX 18XX

2. GBPUSD 7/27:

 As the number of covid-19 infections in the UK decreased after the UK lifted the blockade orders ==> GBP is supported.

#GBPUSD broke the 1.37800-1.38000 zone which is likely to extend the upside momentum to 1.39000.  So buy.

Buy Limit GBPUSD AT 1.3780 and 1.3800

SL:  1.3740

TP:  1.3XXX

 3. Bitcoin 7/27.

The resistance is still around 41k.  Traders can watch bitcoin's reaction to this resistance zone

 Bitcoin Range : 29k-41k

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Comment on Gold on July 26, 2021

 Ending the last trading week precious metal Gold fell from 1825 to 1789 ($36) and closed the trading week with a bearish candle around 1801. This is the first week of decline after nearly a month.  Through the recovery of precious metal Gold and my personal view this trading week still expect this precious metal to drop further with a stronger correction compared to the last trading week.

 Switching to the daily chart time frame we can see that currently the price area around 1794 is still a relatively strong support area for this precious metal Gold has not been broken many times, the price keeps touching the price zone.  This price rebounded again and I expect this trading week this price zone will break down to go deeper.  Above is the resistance zone 1810-1815 and if the price goes up to this zone then this is the ideal area for us to establish a short position in precious metal Gold with safe target around 1794 and expectation is  1785.

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Forex Trading Updates: If you are interested in trading signals or tips

   1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - Gold used to increase more than 10 dollars and oil price continues to increase more than 2%.

 - Claims for initial jobless claims increased again from the United States through July 17.

 - Iran opens important oil pipeline that can pass through the Strait of Hormuz to transport crude oil.

 US used-home sales in June rose for the first time in five months.

 - The European Central Bank committed to a policy of "permanent easing" and revised future guidance on interest rates.

 - Saudi Aramco hacked and demanded $ 50 million ransom.

 - IMF: Will improve its concessional lending program, or "limit sale" of its gold reserves.

 - The Tokyo Olympics opened today and only 950 people were present to watch the opening ceremony

 2️⃣ Financial facts and data today

 - Today will publish the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in France, Germany and the Eurozone in July.

 - PMI of UK manufacturing and services sectors will be published in July.

 - The initial value of the Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI will be published in July.

 - Japan's Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed for one day due to the Sports Festival.

 - At Saturday, the total number of US oil rigs for the week to July 23 will be announced.

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Comment on Gold on July 23, 2021

  In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold went standard as analyzed in the early morning when it was still in a sideways range when it fell to 1794 then bounced back to 1807. Once again Gold failed to break the zone.  support 1794 and we will prioritize buying if gold drops there first today.

 - As I have analyzed for many days, Gold will mostly move sideways in a large range of 1794-1818 and there will be no specific breakout and in my opinion today we will still hold this view if  If gold breaks any boundary, we will hit that border.  These are also support and resistance areas in today's session.

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Comment on Gold on 22/07/2021

 Ending yesterday's session, precious metal Gold had a down day when it fell from 1813 to 1794 (19$) and closed the day with a bearish candle, but the drop was not too strong and still going.  supported by the 1794 price zone. So my personal view today will not change much compared to yesterday morning.  

When will watch the trade on 2 sides, buy around 1795 and sell when the price touches the 1815-1818 zone.  These are also 2 support and resistance levels in today's session.

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📕 Comment on Gold on 12/07/2021

  

 - Ending last week's session, precious metal Gold had a week of gaining from 1784 to 1818 ($34) and was the third week in a row to close the week with a rising candle with a higher peak than the previous one.  With the weekly candles still supporting the uptrend, in my opinion, Gold will continue to gain in this trading week.

 - Switching to the D1 daily chart time frame, we can see around the 1815 price zone as the closest resistance area with the precious metal Gold and to continue the rally, we need to overcome this price zone.  In my opinion, in the early trading sessions of this week, it is likely that Gold will accumulate to wait for a breakout in the coming sessions and the timeframe and H4 time frame we can clearly see its sideway.

 - After breaking out of the 1795 resistance area, from July 6, 2021 to now, there has been no further breakout.  And in my opinion we can trade in this range.  Establish a short position around 1810-1815 with a safe target around 1797-1800.

Sell limit #XAUUSD #GOLD at 1813

 SL: 1823

 TP: 18XX 17XX

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Comment on Gold on 19/07/2021

In the early trading sessions of last week, precious metal Gold had bounced up to the price area of ​​1834, however, in the last trading session of the week, the selling pressure dropped to 1809 and closed the week's session with a tree.  The green candle rallied but the increasing force was not strong, so in my opinion, the selling pressure from the end of last week will still affect the precious metal. Gold early this week. 

In terms of a shorter time frame than H4, currently Gold is having upward forces and I expect this precious metal can recover to around 1820-1825 if it can reach this price range, then this is the price range.  ideal for us to establish a short position in precious metal Gold with a target of 1804-1807.

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Gold comment on July 16, 2021

 After the precious metal Gold surged to the 1834 price area, it immediately fell to the 1820 threshold and in yesterday's trading session Gold did not have any strong fluctuations, the price fluctuated around 1820-1832.  Closing yesterday's session, precious metal Gold had one more day of gains, however, the increasing force of the daily candle was not significant and as I said above, it was only fluctuating within the range.

Moving to the H4 time frame we see this even more clearly and I expect the precious metal Gold is creating resistance around 1830-1834 to move down so in the beginning of today's session we  We will prioritize the option to sell down with the target 1815-1820.

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Comment on Gold on 15/07/2021

 - After 6 days of trading sideways in the range of 1790-1818, in yesterday's session, precious metal Gold had a break out of this accumulation area.  Closing yesterday's session with a bullish candle with quite strong force.  With the strong increase in candle power and the break of the previous sideways range, the precious metal Gold, in my opinion, is likely to continue to gain momentum in today's session.

Switching to a shorter-term time frame than H4 we can see the precious metal Gold is facing a short-term resistance around 1828 so it is likely that here Gold will tend to correct slightly around 1820.  and this is also a good price zone for us to establish a buy position with precious metal Gold with the target to be the next resistance around 1840-1848.

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Comment on Gold on 14/07/2021

  - In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold had a span to retest the resistance around 1817. After touching this price range, it immediately dropped to 1805, showing that selling pressure around this price level is still there.  Gold hasn't had much volatility since it moved sideways in the 1790-1818 price range.  So I still maintain my opinion like recent analysis that we can trade in this range.

 Intraday resistance area of ​​precious metal Gold is around 1812-1818 and the support price push up precious metal is around 1790-1795.

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Comment on Gold on July 13, 2021

 In yesterday's session, after the precious metal fell to the 1791 price zone, the price bounced back up, closing yesterday's session with a bearish candle and retreating around the 1805 threshold.  day with a pullback candle plus very good buying power after falling to 1791 so in my opinion we will continue to trade with precious metal Gold on the 2 sides of this sideway  is 1791-1815.

Switching to the H4 time frame we can clearly see the sideways area of ​​Gold, in my opinion in today's trading session we are waiting to buy if the price falls around 1785-1791 and sell if the price reaches  The nearest resistance zone is around 1812-1818.

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