Wednesday 30 June 2021

Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - Tuesday's spot gold plummeted $25 within an hour before the US session, close to breaking the $1750 mark.

 - The president of the Federal Reserve Richmond in the United States stated that the labor market has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels and hopes to slow down the pace of asset purchases after seeing more progress in market work.

 - The president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve predicts that the US economy is still far from a full recovery and the number of jobs will increase after the summer.

 Excess cash will boost Fed overnight reverse repurchases demand to a record high on Tuesday.

 - US economic data overnight: Consumer confidence index in June hit a new high since the epidemic and the increase exceeded expectations.

 U.S. President Biden vowed on Tuesday to continue pressuring Congress until Congress has passed a bipartisan infrastructure deal and a larger tax and spending bill to advance the program.  its other governance agenda.

 - OPEC+ postponed the meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee for one day to Thursday, to give the countries more time to resolve their differences.

 - OPEC Secretary-General declares that the oil market is important Uncertainty requires oil-producing countries to be cautious.

 - The Central Bank of Russia will start testing the digital ruble in January 2022.


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - The US will publish ADP employment numbers for June. The previous value was an increase of 978,000 and the forecast value was an increase of 600,000.  Investors pay attention to this data liệu

 - The US will announce the EIA of crude oil inventories until the end of the week on June 25.

 - Early tomorrow morning, the voting committee of the FOMC 2021 and Fed Chairman Richmond Barkin will participate in a roundtable with the theme "The view of the Hispanic communities on the impact of the economy and the epidemic".  

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Tuesday 29 June 2021

 Gold's monthly candle is tending to retest the supply zone (168x-173x).  Perhaps closing this month's candle will be a falling tree.  After that, we will continue to go down to test the supply zone again and then have the motivation to go up strongly.  

Currently, the monthly candle is about to close, so the possibility of a strong trend is lower.  So let's keep an eye out before trading Gold in the new month.

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Check out the news happening in the last 24 hours

 1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 Biden plans to sign two bills on infrastructure spending.

 - Outline of $1.5 trillion annual spending bill for fiscal year 2022 released.

 - Fed Quarles and Barking talk about inflation risks and digital currencies.

 US forces carry out airstrikes on the border between Iraq and Syria.

 - Oil supply gap in August could be as much as 1.7 million bpd.

 - ECB officials: ECB is unlikely to raise interest rates.

 - It is said that the launch date of iPhone 13 should be earlier than iPhone 12.


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - the FOMC voting committee and Fed Chairman Richmond Barkin will deliver speeches on the US economic outlook and monetary policy.

 - European Central Bank President Lagarde will give a speech at the Brussels Economic Forum.

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Monday 28 June 2021

Comment on Gold on June 28, 2021

  - Ending last week's session, precious metal Gold had a slight gain week when closing the week with a bullish candle.  However, the increasing force of this candle is not significant and the selling pressure of last week's candle is still quite strong, so in my opinion, the selling pressure will still be maintained in the beginning of the session.  this week.


 - In terms of daily time frame, Gold is moving sideways around 1772-1789.  Gold price touches the threshold of 1789, there is selling pressure so in my opinion we will continue to keep selling down around this price range and expect the price to retest the 1765 zone.

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Check out the news happening in the past week

  1️⃣ The main news last weekend

 - Biden announced the withdrawal of previous threats on infrastructure deals.

 - Fed Rosengren hinted that they expect to raise rates by the end of 2022

 - US core PCE data hit a new high in May.

 - US Secretary of State Blinken: There are still serious differences in the Iran nuclear deal.

 - Goldman Sachs: Crude oil supply will be very scarce.

 - EU extends sanctions against Russia, Russia: will take countermeasures.

 UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock resigns over scandal.


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - Fed Williams attended the panel discussion.

 - The US Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index for June will be released.

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Saturday 26 June 2021

The Fed's speech deepens financial markets risk aversion

 The market's pulse

The SPX500 rolled back to mid-May levels

The U.S. dollar hit a two month high on the back of the Fed's hawkish statement

Gold had its most significant weekly loss in 15 months

Oil gains on OPEC outlook

Bitcoin is under pressure

Let's take a closer look at how these and other important events affect currency prices, indices, and commodities.

Indices

Weekly changes: SPX500 -2.16%

The SPX500 rolled back and closed the week at the previous month level of 4,166.45. After the Fed's comments on Friday, it appeared that the USA might raise its interest rates sooner than previously expected. Contrarily, the yields on ten-year U.S. Treasury notes surged almost twelve basic points to 1.57%.

Late Wednesday night, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose to its highest two-month level to 91.387. DXY made a 1% surge overnight, the biggest gain since March 2020. This gain was a hawkish surprise for the market, adding that most Fed's board members voted for rates rising in 2023. Their number was twice less by the previous FOMC meeting in spring. Later, the index broke the 92.00 marks and closed the week higher at 92.325.

Indices

Weekly changes: SPX500 -2.16%

The SPX500 rolled back and closed the week at the previous month's level of 4,166.45. After the Fed's comments on Friday, it appeared that the USA might raise its interest rates sooner than previously expected. Contrarily, the yields on ten-year U.S. Treasury notes surged almost twelve basic points to 1.57%.

Late Wednesday night, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose to its highest two-month level to 91.387. DXY made a 1% surge overnight, the biggest gain since March 2020. This gain was a hawkish surprise for the market, adding that most Fed's board members voted for rates rising in 2023. Their number was twice less by the previous FOMC meeting in spring. Later, the index broke the 92.00 marks and closed the week higher at 92.325.

KEY POINTS

Although the Fed forecast is not a commitment, the sudden u-turn was still a shock to the markets. Ahead of the June FOMC meeting, the market consensus had pointed to a gradual decline of DXY value through the remaining quarters of the year. That's the reason why the risk aversion deepened among investors. At the same time, the investors shared doubts that this current U.S. dollar strength could remain all summer. More likely, the Fed signaled that it would consider whether to taper its asset purchases or not meeting by meeting.

The stock index witnessed a slight sell-off. Last week we mentioned the solid bullish sentiment the equity market had been experiencing lately. Some periods of profit takings are natural within a long period of a strong run. Especially when it comes to increased volatility, the period the markets have been facing since last Thursday. Moreover, next week, some Fed governors will speak their comments out. Some of them will be more hawkish, and some won't. More likely, the index's direction will go back-and-forth following their speeches.

Most traders are still bullish this year with the stimulus. The Fed is committed to being dovish with the economy reopening due to vaccinations and overall corporate earnings rising.

Although the Fed forecast is not a commitment, the sudden u-turn was still a shock to the markets. Ahead of the June FOMC meeting, the market consensus had pointed to a gradual decline of DXY value through the remaining quarters of the year. That's the reason why the risk aversion deepened among investors. At the same time, the investors shared doubts that this current U.S. dollar strength could remain all summer. More likely, the Fed signaled that it would consider whether to taper its asset purchases or not meeting by meeting.

The stock index witnessed a slight sell-off. Last week we mentioned the solid bullish sentiment the equity market had been experiencing lately. Some periods of profit takings are natural within a long period of a strong run. Especially when it comes to increased volatility, the period the markets have been facing since last Thursday. Moreover, next week, some Fed governors will speak their comments out. Some of them will be more hawkish, and some won't. More likely, the index' direction will go back-and-forth following their speeches.

Most traders are still bullish this year with the stimulus. The Fed is committed to being dovish with the economy reopening due to vaccinations and overall corporate earnings rising.

Currencies

Weekly changes: EURUSD -1.95%, GBPUSD -2.11%, USDJPY +0.56%, USDCAD +2.57%

The EURUSD pair traded flat with no volume from Monday till late Wednesday. However, it has continuously fallen, surpassing three psychologically 'imposing figures' (1.2100, 1.2000 and 1.1900) levels and finished the week at 1.18569. Such a sharp move was unusual for the currency pair in recent months. As far as the price fails to decline further, there is an understanding that the U.S. dollar's strength bounce can be temporary.

GBPUSD traded almost identically as EURUSD. The pair dropped to its lowest levels in six weeks and finished Friday at 1.37954. Therefore this was a big week for the U.K. data. And while some figures like CPI and GDP were positive, others, like retail sales, showed a decline of 1.4%. Since the country postponed its full re-opening after COVID restrictions, consumer demand fell 2%, the first drop in four months. The sterling may rebound this Thursday at the Bank of England's meeting results. The BoE was one of the first central banks to reduce asset purchases. Moreover, with the Fed expressing its confidence in the recovery by signalling the sooner steps, the British regulator should sound less dovish.

By midweek, USDJPY consolidated near the two-month tops, holding above 110.00. Thursday's upbeat U.S. data continued supporting the greenback. Nervousness ahead of NFP benefitted the safe-haven Japanese currency. However, the currency pair fell sharply after the release and lost 0.52% each day, stopping at 109.70 by Friday night.

KEY POINTS

The Forex market didn't expect a sizable move in the U.S.dollar last week. The Fed jumped one step ahead, and, as a result, the greenback is likely to remain well supported against the euro. Last week ECB's statement appeared dovish even before Powell's speech. After the Fed changed the situation, EURUSD might follow its decline if the ECB made no adjustments. ECB President Lagarde will speak on Monday, and she might refer to monetary policy. Also, this week's German PMI reports could be helpful. But if the numbers show no improvements, the contrast may push the pair lower. Moreover, when the initial impulse from the Fed meeting settles, the investors will realize that the correction has gone too far and EURUSD is in the oversold zone.

The 'simply oversold' term could be applied to the GBPUSD pair as well. Besides, as long as the PMI figures are published, the pair may rebound. At least, the index's preliminary forecast seems interesting. The Bank of England meeting may bring some surprises as well. The BoE was expected to wait until August before deciding on slowing down their bond purchasing. However, the speech will presumably be re-written at the very last moment.

USDJPY seems to be the only pair among the majors, which managed to return by Friday to its 'pre-Fed' levels of 110.2. Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy, as was anticipated. Also, the Japanese Financial Minister stated that they expect the country's GDP growth to return to the pre-COVID levels in this fiscal year.

Gold

Weekly changes: XAUUSD -5.62%

XAUUSD dropped to 1,764 USD after a Federal Reserve official said high inflation might call for the U.S. central bank to tighten its monetary policy next year. Gold is trading at its lowest levels since April, having the highest weekly loss in 15 months. Higher rates dampen demand for non-interest-bearing gold as an alternative asset.

Nevertheless, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that discussions about raising interest rates would be 'highly premature'. His statement appears to be that the Fed is not going to do anything. They will allow this inflation spike to run its course, which the Fed believes will be transitory.

KEY POINTS

The important thing is that the Fed is not raising rates tomorrow. The Fed's plan suggests the earliest increase is 30 months away. Gold is highly oversold. Prices will probably struggle to mount a quick recovery since they broke several key technical levels in just two days.

Important levels: 1,678, 1,721, 1,769 , 1,790 , 1,816

Friday 25 June 2021

Gold comment on June 25, 2021

  - In the last 2 trading days, precious metal Gold has almost no change as the price is still moving sideways within the range of 1787-1774 and nothing has broken through yet.  Closing the trading session of the past 3 days Gold all ended with a bearish candle with no sign of an uptrend, so my personal opinion is still selling down with Gold in today's trading session.  now on.


 - On the h4 time frame, there is not much change. I expect Gold's downtrend will continue to be maintained, break 1774 and go to 1765. This is also the price range I expect Gold to test again today.

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Check out the news happening in the last 24 hours

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 Biden said it had reached an infrastructure deal with senators from both sides.

 - The Fed will remove restrictions on bank stock buybacks and dividends.

 - US negotiators said they could resume talks on the Iran nuclear deal as soon as next week.

 The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell last week.

 - The SEC is introducing requirements for the cryptocurrency trading business.

 - The Bank of England's hawkish signals fell short of expectations and the pound fell.

 India's Oil Minister urged OPEC to cut production as soon as possible.

 - Microsoft introduces the new Windows 11 system.

 - The reverse repurchase activity exceeded 10 billion for the first time in 3 months.


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - The US will release core PCE data for May, which is the inflation indicator that the Fed is most interested in.

 - Tonight, the FOMC Standing Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams will deliver speeches.

Thursday 24 June 2021

Gold comment on June 24, 2021

- In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold remained unchanged compared to the previous day.  The price is still in the accumulation zone of precious metal Gold so in my opinion we can trade in this range and selling down is my preferred option.

 - Yesterday, after rising to 1794, the price dropped again, turned back, and closed the day with a bearish candle, so the selling pressure was quite large with precious metal Gold.  We maintain the short position with the target of 1765. Here we liquidate the order and wait for the next signal.

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Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - Yellen said the US could hit the debt ceiling in August.

 - Fed officials Bostic, Kaplan said they will raise rates next year.

 - The Fed's first use of a fixed-rate reverse repo exceeds $800 billion.

 - US Democrats set a target in 24 hours to reach an infrastructure agreement between the parties.

 - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June hit a record high.

 - Meibu Oil once set a new 3-year high and inventories in last week's EIA fell sharply.

 - OPEC+ is said to be considering an output increase announcement at next week's meeting.

 The Iran nuclear deal is said to be nearing completion.

 - Mutant strains "Delta+" have been detected in India and a third wave of epidemics will occur in the future.

 - The Bank of England decision will be announced and Haldane, a hawkish official, will make one last appearance.


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - The Bank of England will publish interest rate resolutions, policy statements and meeting minutes This meeting will be the last meeting of Haldane, the chief economist of the hawks.  Investors will be watching for signs of central bank tightening.

 - The United States will publish the first number of jobless claims for the week until June 19. At the same time, it will publish the final value of the first quarter annualized real GDP rate.  first quarter and core PCE of the first quarter.  annual price index quarterly rate final value.  Data-related performance can affect the volatility of the US dollar.

 - Tonight, the FOMC 2021 voting committee, Fed President Atlanta Bostic, Fed President Philadelphia Hack and New York Fed President Williams will deliver speeches.

Wednesday 23 June 2021

Weekly View on Currencies

 Weekly changes: EURUSD -1.95%, GBPUSD -2.11%, USDJPY +0.56%, USDCAD +2.57%


The EURUSD pair traded flat with no volume from Monday till late Wednesday. However, it has continuously fallen, surpassing three psychologically 'imposing figures' (1.2100, 1.2000 and 1.1900) levels and finished the week at 1.18569. Such a sharp move was unusual for the currency pair in recent months. As far as the price fails to decline further, there is an understanding that the U.S. dollar's strength bounce can be temporary.


GBPUSD traded almost identically as EURUSD. The pair dropped to its lowest levels in six weeks and finished Friday at 1.37954. Therefore this was a big week for the U.K. data. And while some figures like CPI and GDP were positive, others, like retail sales, showed a decline of 1.4%. Since the country postponed its full re-opening after COVID restrictions, consumer demand fell 2%, the first drop in four months. The sterling may rebound this Thursday at the Bank of England's meeting results. The BoE was one of the first central banks to reduce asset purchases. Moreover, with the Fed expressing its confidence in the recovery by signalling the sooner steps, the British regulator should sound less dovish.


By midweek, USDJPY consolidated near the two-month tops, holding above 110.00. Thursday's upbeat U.S. data continued supporting the greenback. Nervousness ahead of NFP benefitted the safe-haven Japanese currency. However, the currency pair fell sharply after the release and lost 0.52% each day, stopping at 109.70 by Friday night.


KEY POINTS


The Forex market didn't expect a sizable move in the U.S.dollar last week. The Fed jumped one step ahead, and, as a result, the greenback is likely to remain well supported against the euro. Last week ECB's statement appeared dovish even before Powell's speech. After the Fed changed the situation, EURUSD might follow its decline if the ECB made no adjustments. ECB President Lagarde will speak on Monday, and she might refer to monetary policy. Also, this week's German PMI reports could be helpful. But if the numbers show no improvements, the contrast may push the pair lower. Moreover, when the initial impulse from the Fed meeting settles, the investors will realize that the correction has gone too far and EURUSD is in the oversold zone.


The 'simply oversold' term could be applied to the GBPUSD pair as well. Besides, as long as the PMI figures are published, the pair may rebound. At least, the index's preliminary forecast seems interesting. The Bank of England meeting may bring some surprises as well. The BoE was expected to wait until August before deciding on slowing down their bond purchasing. However, the speech will presumably be re-written at the very last moment.


USDJPY seems to be the only pair among the majors, which managed to return by Friday to its 'pre-Fed' levels of 110.2. Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy, as was anticipated. Also, the Japanese Financial Minister stated that they expect the country's GDP growth to return to the pre-COVID levels in this fiscal year.

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📕 Comment on Gold on June 23, 2021

  In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold mostly moved sideways when it fluctuated in the 1786-1775 range, touched the 1786-1790 range many times but failed to break through, so it proves that this price zone is under pressure.  The selling pressure is quite large and we can establish a sell position when the precious metal touches this price area.



 - On the daily chart time frame, yesterday Gold closed with a bearish candle after recovering on Monday, so it is even more supportive of the downtrend and in my opinion the possibility of the metal today.  Gold quarter will retest the 1765 price zone.

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Tuesday 22 June 2021

Gold comment on June 22, 2021

  - Ending yesterday's session, precious metal Gold had 1 day of recovery after a strong drop last week.  The price recovered from 1764 to 1787 ($23).  Close of the session with a bullish candle.  Although yesterday there was a recovery signal, but in my opinion, the downward pressure on precious metal Gold on the weekly chart is dominating and this recovery span is the area for us to establish a short position.  down.


 - On the D1 and H4 chart time frame, Gold is facing a resistance around 1785 -1790, here we can establish a sell position with a safe target around 1775 and beyond 1765.

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Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours:

  Yesterday's main news

 - Several senior Fed officials talked about the US economy and debt relief.

 Biden believes Congress will raise the debt ceiling.

 - The President of the European Central Bank said there is still room to cut interest rates.

 - Bank of Japan buys ETF for the first time in two months.

 Iran says "next round of nuclear talks could be last".

 - Microstrategy buys 13005 bitcoins.

Notable economic events and data today

 - The FOMC voting committee and the San Francisco Fed president will speak at the Peterson Institute for International Economics videoconference.

 - Tomorrow, Fed Chair Powell will address Congress on COVID-19 response measures and the economic outlook.  Pay attention to relevant statements.




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Monday 21 June 2021

Check out the news happening in the past week

 Check out the news happening in the past week:

The main news last weekend

 Spot gold last week recorded its biggest weekly drop since March 2020.

 Fed Brad is expected to raise rates in 2022.

 Biden said they would review the two sides' infrastructure plans on Monday.

 - Iran's hardline candidate, Lacey is elected president of Iran.

 - Goldman Sachs expects Burundi Oil prices to average $80 per barrel in the third quarter.

 Former Tesla CEO sells $270 million in stock.

 - Bitcoin mining farm in Sichuan simultaneously cut off power.


Notable economic events and data today

 - The listed interest rate of the one-year loan market from China to June 21.

 - Fed President St.  Louis Brad and Fed President Dallas Kaplan will deliver speeches on the economic outlook;  In addition, Fed Williams will speak at the next day.

 - European Central Bank President Lagarde opened the hearing of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.


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Comment on Gold on June 21, 2021

  - Ending the last trading week, precious metal Gold had a strong decline week from 1903 to 1760 ($143) and closed the week with a strong bearish candle around 1764. With such a strong decrease like this.  then it is highly likely that the precious metal Gold will still be under downward pressure at the beginning of this week.

 - Switching to the daily chart time frame, we can see that this precious metal Gold has not shown any significant recovery yet but is trending to recover weakly from the 1760 support area. Personal opinion.  In my opinion, this recovery will not be strong, but will only come around 1780-1785 and then come under downward pressure again.  So in my opinion here we can establish a sell position with a safe target around 1760-1765.

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Friday 18 June 2021

Comment on Gold on June 18, 2021

 📕 Comment on Gold on June 18, 2021:


 - In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold was able to have a strong decrease in price from around 1825 to 1766 ($59) this is the 2nd day in a row Gold dropped sharply.  With such strong downward pressure in the past 2 days, in my opinion in today's session, we need to observe the 1766 price zone, if it breaks this price zone, the precious metal will continue to decline to the level of 1766.  strong support around 1755.

 - Currently, precious metal Gold is also touching the support price zone, so I expect to push the price of precious metal to recover in the short term to the price range of 1796-1800 where the possibility of gold will continue to decline.  back and 1766-1770 will be a short-term support for this precious metal during the day, we will take profits safely waiting for the next signal around this price level.



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Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - Spot gold once again plummeted near $60.

 - Fed reverse repo usage rises to a record high of $756 billion.

 - The SEC announces a holiday to celebrate the June Festival.

 - US Democrats are considering passing budget plans through the budget mediation process.

 Initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly rebounded last week.

 - Following the Federal Reserve, several central banks "eagle eagles" in their latest interest rate decisions.

 - Many global websites are down again.

 - The Euro surpasses the US dollar to become the world's most important payment currency.

 - Japanese Prime Minister announced the lifting of the state of emergency in 9 places, including Tokyo.


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - The Bank of Japan will announce the interest rate decision;  then, Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference.

 - The next day, the Kashkari Federal Reserve will give a speech.

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Thursday 17 June 2021

Fed's June FOMC resolution surprised hawks, First mentioned two rate hikes in 2023

 On Thursday (June 17), the Federal Reserve issued a June FOMC interest rate resolution, maintaining the federal funds rate in the range of 0-0.25%.  and maintain a plan to buy bonds worth 120 billion USD.  At the same time, it first hinted at twice before the end of 2023. The rate hike sent gold plummeting, and US bond yields and the US dollar surged.


 FOMC statement: First mention of two rate hikes in 2023.


 In terms of interest rates, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0% -0.25%, in line with market expectations.  FOMC members strongly agreed with this interest rate decision (in line with the previous meeting).

 Regarding the dot chart expectations, the time for the first rate hike has been pre-calculated.  The dot chart shows that the Fed will raise rates twice (50 basis points) by the end of 2023.  Of which, 7 committee members are expected to start raising interest rates in 2022, and 4 committee members in March this year.  The 13 committee members are expected to start raising rates in 2023, and there will be 7 committee members by March of this year.

 In terms of economic expectations, this year's GDP growth forecast and PCE inflation forecast for the next three years will be raised.

 For the bond buying guidelines, we will continue to increase our holdings of at least $80 billion in treasury bonds and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month until the  The commission's goals of full employment and price stability have made significant progress.  The statement says that the Federal Reserve strives to achieve full employment and an inflation rate of 2% over a longer period of time.

 Regarding the operating interest rate, the excess reserve interest rate (IOER) was adjusted from 0.1% to 0.15%, effective from June 17;  Overnight reverse redemption rate is adjusted from 0% to 0.05%, effective from June 17.

 It is worth mentioning that the Federal Reserve announced that it will extend the temporary US dollar liquidity swap agreement with nine central banks through December 31, 2021. The instrument is designed to secure funds.  The supply of US dollars is stable on a global scale and helps the US Treasury bond market to function smoothly.

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Check out the news happening in the last 24 hours

   Yesterday's main news

 - The Fed resolution broke out to a hawkish surprise, and gold plummeted near $60.

 - Yellen said "inflation is being watched very carefully".

 - 20 US senators signed the bipartisan infrastructure statement.

 - At the end of the Russia-US summit in Geneva, Putin said "good talks".

 US crude inventories fell by the most since April last week.

 - Saudi Arabian Oil Minister: My job is to avoid the oil price super cycle.

 - Vice President of the European Central Bank emphasized the gradual withdrawal of stimulus measures.


  Notable economic events and data today

 - Reserve Bank of Australia President Lowe will deliver a speech.

 - The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision to stay alert to the volatility of the Swiss franc.

 - In terms of key data, the Eurozone will publish May CPI data

 - In addition, the OPEC Joint Technical Committee (JTC) will hold a meeting today and the time will be determined.


Wednesday 16 June 2021

Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

 1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - International oil prices continue to reach new 3-year highs.

 - U.S. monthly retail sales rate recorded a negative value in May.

 - The Fed's use of overnight reverse repurchases fell by the most since April 1.

 The White House's patience for bilateral negotiations on the infrastructure project is said to be nearing its limit.

 - The southwestern United States is facing a once-in-a-thousand-year drought crisis.

 - The US and Europe announced the suspension of retaliatory tariffs on the subsidy dispute between Airbus and Boeing.

 - EU launches bond issuance plan to finance recovery fund, raising 20 billion euros.


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - the US will publish the EIA of crude oil inventories through the end of the week of June 11. API crude inventories announced early this morning recorded the fourth consecutive week of decline, in line with expectations, and the level  decrease is the largest.  since January. Crude WTI crude oil futures published in the After data were slightly higher.  Investors can pay attention to possible fluctuations in oil prices tonight.

 - Today, Russian President Putin and US President Biden held a summit.  According to reports, the summit will start on Wednesday. The Kremlin spokesman said the Putin-Biden summit will last 4-5 hours, during which there will be a break.  And change.  Format of the meeting.

 - tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will release interest rate resolutions, policy statements, and economic expectations.  Then, Fed Chairman Powell held a press conference.

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Comment on Gold on June 16, 2021

 Comment on Gold on June 16, 2021:



 - Ending yesterday's session precious metal Gold had another day of declines from 1868 to 1851 ($ 17) closing the day at 1858. With the close of the day with a bearish candle with the latter bottom lower than the previous one.  Therefore, in addition, there is a band opening on the D1 daily chart, so in my opinion, today precious metal Gold will likely continue to decline to lower prices.

 - Switching to a shorter time frame than H4 we can see that Gold is still at the support zone around 1855 but with the current downward force, I think if there are slight uptrends of precious metal  Gold is also a point for us to establish a sell position and the price of 1855 will be difficult to stand and if the support area is broken at 1855, the possibility of Gold will drop to 1845 and beyond possibly 1835.

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Tuesday 15 June 2021

Comment on Gold on June 15, 2021

  - In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold had quite strong declines from 1877 to 1844 ($33) after falling here, it immediately bounced back to 1869 and closed the day with a  The candle fell but retreated quite strongly and the strong support area of ​​1855 still holds so this is still the price area where we can establish a short buy position.

 - Switching to the H4 time frame, we can see that after sweeping to the 1844 area, the buying momentum immediately increased again and the last 3 H4 candles still gave a strong buying force, so the possibility of this uptrend  will still be maintained in the beginning of today's trading session.  And I expect precious metal can recover to around 1875-1880.  Here, in my opinion, is the ideal price zone to establish a short position with Gold.  The safe target is around 1855-1860.

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Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

 Yesterday's main news

 - Gold, after falling below the level of $ 1850, has risen sharply again.

 - Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index all set new closing highs.

 - The Fed's use of reverse repurchase instruments hit a record high for six consecutive days.

 - New York Fed survey: One-year average inflation expectations could reach an 8-year high.

 - US bipartisan senators reportedly will form infrastructure proposals by the end of the week

 - The UK epidemic control and prevention period has been postponed for 4 weeks.

 - The European Union begins to issue US$1 trillion in bonds.

 - US sanctions on Russian debt come into effect on the 14th.

 - Tudor Jones: Will purely bet on inflation trades.


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - Regarding the central bank's dynamics, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting today.  Additionally, today , Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech on the future of financial services.

 - About the main data, today, the monthly retail rate for May in the US, known as “terrorist” data, will be released.  The expected value is -0.8%, much lower than the previous value of 0%.  If the data is better than expected, it will be able to further support the US dollar and gold causing gold to fall.

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Monday 14 June 2021

Notable events and data this week

  This week will be central bank decision week, and there will be new developments in the central banks and Federal Reserves of many countries:

 - On Monday and Tuesday, Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech.

 - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve FOMC will publish interest rate resolutions, policy statements and economic expectations.  The same day, the Swiss National Bank will announce its decision on interest rates and Reserve Bank of Australia President Lowe will give a speech.

 - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Friday.

 - On economic data: On Tuesday, the US will publish the percentage of monthly retail sales for May, with a forecast value of -0.4%, lower than the previous value of 0%.

 - In addition, on Wednesday, Russian President Putin and US President Biden held a summit meeting, it was reported that Biden and Putin will hold a separate press conference after the meeting.  Foreign media reported over the weekend that, in an interview, Putin said that Russia-US relations are currently at their lowest point in recent years.

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Gold Technical Analysis

 Ending last week's session, precious metal Gold had a week of decline from 1904 to 1869 ($35) to close the week at the price range around 1876. With the closing with a bearish weekly candle, the possibility  High in the week's trading sessions, the downward pressure will continue but it is currently touching the 187x support area, so it is likely that there will be slight rebounds here.

 - Switching to the daily chart time frame we can see that Gold is currently meeting a support area at 1870. If this support is broken then 1855 will be the next destination for Gold and this is also the price zone.  The support is relatively strong, so the possibility that if this precious metal drops here first, in my opinion, this is also a good price zone for us to establish a short position with this precious metal.

 - One more case is that on the H4 time frame, I expect Gold price in the beginning of today's session to recover from here to the 1885-1890 price range.  This is the short-term price zone that Gold broke last Friday, if this precious metal can retest at the beginning of today's trading session, this is the ideal price zone for us to sell down with a target of 1875.  and the expectation is 1855. This is the option that I am more inclined to.


 


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Friday 11 June 2021

Comment on Gold on 11/06/2021

 - In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold had beautiful declines beyond the city's set target and reached 1869. After reaching this price range, Gold bounced back to the 1899 price range and closed.  Closing the session with a bullish green candle.  Although it ended with a green candle, in my personal opinion the price is still in the resistance zone around 1900. So here we can still establish a short-term sell position with this precious metal.  .

 - On the H4 time frame, this is a fairly strong resistance around 1900. This is also the upper band of the precious metal Gold but many times it can't pass, so I still prefer selling down here.  Today's selling target is expected to be around 1885. Here we liquidate the order and wait for the next option.

 - Case 2, if precious metals do not correct and go up, we wait for the recovery spans to buy back, the buy point will be updated if Gold follows case 2.

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Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

 Yesterday's main news

 - US May CPI inflation data hits 13-year high, markets price Fed rate hike in 2023.

 - Former Iranian official lifted sanctions, oil prices fell sharply in the short term.

 - Bipartisan group of US senators reach agreement on tax-free infrastructure plan.

 - The Fed's balance sheet exceeds $8 trillion for the first time.

 Meat giant JBS pays $11 million in Bitcoin to solve hack.

 - The European Central Bank will significantly accelerate its bond purchases and watch the exchange rate go up.

 The Basel Committee listed Bitcoin as the highest risk category in the bank's capital proposal.


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - Today the IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report.  Thursday's OPEC monthly report maintains the projected growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2021 at 5.95 million bpd and a recovery in oil demand in the second half  expected to be strong.

 - Today the Prime Minister of the UK and the Governor of the Central Bank attended the event.

 - The next day, the total number of US oil rigs for the week to June 11 will be announced.

 - The 46th G7 Summit will be held from 11-13 to discuss key issues such as corporate tax planning and vaccine financing.
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Thursday 10 June 2021

Comment on Gold on June 10, 2021

Ending yesterday's session, precious metal Gold fell to the benchmark as the analysis scenario when it fell from 1898 to 1887, closing the day with a bearish candle.  The fact that the precious metal hasn't surpassed 1900 in the past 2 days shows that the selling pressure at this price area is still quite strong and my personal opinion on this metal will not change much, still selling down with the price range.  next support.

 - On the H4 time frame, we can see that the uptrend is weakening with the following peak lower than the previous one and the price is still clinging to the short-term trendline channel that has been pulling from June 1, 2021 until now.  So we will continue to sell down if this precious metal touches this trendline channel.  My view is that in today's session, Gold will drop to 1875.



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Weekly Market View on Cryptocurrencies

 MARKET VIEW


Weekly changes: BTCUSD +8.42%


On Thursday, 3 June, bitcoin prices rose again to 39,400 USD. Bitcoin's price began to rise after it fell to 33,300 USD on 30 May. Over the past week, the asset has increased by 8%. Bitcoin capitalization exceeded 730 USD billion, and its market share remained at 40%. The Wall Street Journal believes that the cryptocurrency market will greatly suffer since governments worldwide are planning to tighten the industry regulation, and traders are liquidating their positions in a panic.


Analysts of the consulting company Massari noted that the market drawdown caused by macroeconomic factors to which bitcoin is now tied. Experts said one of the reasons for correcting the overheating economy and the Fed's reaction was that investors were worried that instead of quantitative easing (Q.E.), the market is waiting for quantitative tightening (Q.T.).


KEY POINTS


According to the analytical service Sentiment, large cryptocurrency holders have returned to buying digital coins. The largest holders of bitcoin, whose addresses contain 100 to 100,000 digital coins, have added 50,000 bitcoins (1.8 billion USD at the current exchange rate) to their wallets over the past ten days.


The accumulation of digital coins by 'whales' usually indicates the upcoming growth of quotations, while investors perceive the sale of cryptocurrency by large holders as a signal for a fall. A similar situation happened last month. Large investors and funds began to buy the cryptocurrency during the bitcoin price fall to 30,000 USD. After that, the number of bitcoins on cryptocurrency exchanges reached its minimum in the last four months.

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Wednesday 9 June 2021

Gold comment on June 9, 2021

In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold had quite strong declines as analyzed when it dropped from 1903 to 1883 ($ 20) and closed the daily candle with a bearish candle around 1892.  With 2 times failed to break the 1900 level and drop, in my opinion precious metal Gold will continue to be under downward pressure in today's session.

 - The price area where we can establish a sell-down position is around the threshold of 1895-1898.  Here we can establish a short position with a safe target around 1885 and an expectation of 1875 in today's session.



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Tuesday 8 June 2021

News that happened in the last 24 hours

 Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours:


 1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 The Fed's use of an overnight reverse repo hit a record high, surpassing $486 billion.

 - The Federal Reserve will release the results of a bank stress test or resume corporate stock buybacks and dividends.

 - The US government has recovered 63.7 bitcoins related to the hacks.

 - Russia will apply incentive measures to promote currency circulation from US dollars to Euro.

 New proposed law will allow Russians to inherit Bitcoin.

 - World Gold Council: Gold ETF has the highest monthly inflow in May.

 - Micro-strategy company issues junk bonds to buy Bitcoin.


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - The adjusted value of Japan's quarterly real GDP ratio for the first quarter was published.  The market expected it to be -4.8%, compared with -5.1% in the previous quarter.

 - The final value of the annual GDP ratio for the first quarter of the euro area will be published.  The market is expected to be the same as last quarter.  At the same time, the quarterly employment rate for the first quarter will be released.

 - April US trade account announcement, the market is expected to have a deficit of 64.4 billion US dollars.  The agency's outlook believes that as US economic activity recovers faster than its global rivals, the deficit could continue to widen.

 - EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report and the next day, it released API crude oil inventories in the US for the week to date.  June 4.

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Monday 7 June 2021

Comment on Gold on June 7, 2021

 ‼️Close the session last week precious metal Gold ended with a bearish candle.  The downtrend sometimes reached the 1855 mark, but then in the last sessions of the week Gold rebounded, making the weekly candle retreat quite a lot.  With the resistance at 1900 still not broken, in today's session we still prefer to sell down at the beginning of the session.

 - Moving to the H4 time frame we see more clearly the current resistance area of ​​this precious metal.  So we can establish a short position with precious metal Gold price with a safe target around 1880. Here we liquidate and wait for a signal to buy this precious metal. 

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Latest news happening in the past 24 hours

  Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours:


 1️⃣ The main news last weekend

 - Non-agriculture was not as expected, spot gold recovered stronger than $40.

 - US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Raising interest rates benefits society and the Fed.

 - Group of seven countries have reached a historic agreement on the lowest corporate tax rate in the world.

 - Russia considers giving up paying for crude oil contracts in US dollars.

 The House of Representatives will begin final discussions on the infrastructure bill on Wednesday.

 - FTSE Russell removes Game Station from Russell Small Cap Index mục


 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data this week

 - This week is Fed silence, on Wednesday the Bank of Canada will announce the decision on interest rates, Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce the decision on interest rates, the President of the Bank  Lagarde European Central will hold a press conference.

 - This week's economic data is relatively light and there are two notable comparisons:

 - On Tuesday, the US will publish the April trade account;

 - On Thursday, the US will publish non-seasonally adjusted annual and monthly CPI levels in May.

 Oil market investors should pay attention to three reports:

 - In the early hours of Wednesday morning, the EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook report.

 - On Thursday, OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report.

 - On Friday, the IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report.

 Finally, the 46th G7 Summit will be held on Friday, until June 13.

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Friday 4 June 2021

Check out the news happening in the past 24 hours

 


 1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - "Small Non-Farming" increased by nearly a million, Spot gold fell sharply, the biggest intraday drop since February.

 Biden proposes to lower the corporate tax cap instead of raising the corporate tax rate to 28%.

 The New York Fed will begin selling corporate bonds in its secondary market corporate credit facility.

 The US government will ship 25 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine to Asia, Africa and Latin America.

 - Russia plans to reduce the share of US dollars in sovereign wealth funds to zero.

 - US crude inventories last week fell to their lowest level since the week of April 30.


 2️⃣ Today's important facts and data

 - Fed Chair Powell attends the meeting.

 - Release US nonfarm employment population and unemployment rate after seasonal adjustment for May, and then Biden will speak on this.  The market is expected to add 750,000 people and an unemployment rate of 5.9%.

 - The total number of US oil rigs for the week to June 4 was announced, and the market is expected to add 363 rigs.

 - From 4 to 5 June, G7 finance ministers will meet in London.

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Thursday 3 June 2021

Comment on Gold on 03/06/2021

 ‼️During yesterday's session, precious metal Gold once fell to 1894 after touching this price range. Gold bounced back to 1908 and closed the day with a bullish candle here.  With this precious metal closing yesterday with a bullish candle, it is likely that in the beginning of today's session Gold can retest the "old top" of 1912-1915 and we need to wait for more signals.  to sell down with this precious metal.

 - Although yesterday Gold rebounded at the end of the session, but not because of that, I changed my opinion on Gold as reported yesterday morning.  Around this price range 1910-1912 is still a price zone where we can establish a sell position with a safe target around 1900. And if Gold price breaks through the 1892-1896 zone, it is likely that this metal will  further drop points.

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Check out the news happening in the past 24 hours

 Yesterday's main news

 - The Fed plans to phase out credit grants to secondary market companies to deal with the epidemic before the end of the year.

 - US federal funds rate rose again, the prospect of Fed rate adjustment is in doubt.

 - Philadelphia Fed President: The Fed needs to start discussing a timetable for reducing bond purchases.

 US API crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 5.36 million barrels in the week to May 28.

 Iran oil refinery fire, Iran nuclear talks restart next week.

 - Cinema chain AMC doubled in just one day and its market value increased to US$33 billion overnight.

 - Governor of the Central Bank of Russia: Central Bank Digital Currency is the future of the Russian financial system.


  Today's important facts and data

 - The number of ADP jobs in the US in May. The market is expected to increase by 650,000, and the previous value is 742,000.

 - The number of initial jobless claims in the United States until May 29 will be published, expected to be 390,000 (decreased for 7 consecutive weeks).

 - EIA crude oil inventories from the United States through the week of May 28 are expected to decrease by 2.114 million barrels.

 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will deliver a speech, followed by a speech by Fed Governor Quarles.

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Wednesday 2 June 2021

Comment on Gold on June 2, 2021

 ‼️End of yesterday's session precious metal Gold closed the day with a bearish candle around 1900. With this drop in my opinion, the selling force of precious metal Gold seems to have appeared.  and it is highly likely that Gold will correct slightly here.

 - Considering the H4 time frame, we can see that selling is the dominant force in the 4 trees, so recently and in my opinion the ideal price zone to sell down with this precious metal is around 1904-1907.  Around here we can establish a short position in precious metal Gold with a target of 1892. In my opinion, the price needs to break through 1892 to confirm a deeper decline in Gold.

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Check out the news happening in the past 24 hours

 1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - OPEC+ will continue to increase production in July,WTI crude oil hits high since October 2018.

 The Fed's federal funds rate fell for the first time since late April.

 - Fed Governor Brainard: Further progress is expected in the coming months.

 - All JBS beef processing plants in the US were forced to suspend production due to a cyber attack.

 India's central bank clarifies that cryptocurrency trading is not prohibited.

 - Erdogan says interest rates need to be lowered, Turkish lira plummets.


 2️⃣ Today's important facts and data

 - Today, the FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans will deliver speeches on the current economic situation and monetary policy.

 - On Thursday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Atlanta Bostic, Fed President Dallas Kaplan and Philadelphia Fed President Huck will attend an online conference on race and the economy.  At the same time, the Federal Reserve issued the Beige Book.

 - On Thursday, API crude inventories from the United States will be released for the week to May 28. The previous value fell by 439,000 barrels.

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