Malaysia: BNM could pause its hiking cycle in November – UOB

 Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) could make an impasse in its tightening cycle at the November 3 event, suggests Lee Sue Ann, an Economist at UOB Group.

Key Quotes

“Given that inflation expectations are anchored to official targets and risks to the domestic growth outlook are tilting to the downside, we believe BNM will tread more cautiously”.

“We expect BNM to take an intermittent pause to assess the effect of its cumulative 75bps rate hikes to date, domestic policy outcomes, as well as higher external risks and weaker global outlook. As such, we expect the OPR to be left unchanged at 2.50% at the coming Nov meeting”.

USD/IDR to grind higher toward next resistance at 15,832 – TDS

 Bank Indonesia (BI) hiked rates by 50 bps as expected. Nonetheless, economists at TD Securities expect the USD/IDR to advance nicely toward the 15,832 resistance.

Another 50 bps hike cannot be discounted if IDR weakens aggressively

“BI hiked by another 50 bps, bringing the 7-day reverse repo rate to 4.75%. BI Governor Warjiyo noted that the hike was a ‘front-loaded, pre-emptive and forward-looking step to lower inflation expectations that are too high or overshooting’. However, we think the policy path ahead leans more on the pace of IDR depreciation given BI's historical focus on FX. Further, Warjiyo commented that the Bank wants to control the IDR to prevent imported inflation.”

“We see a gradual move for USD/IDR higher towards its next technical resistance level at 15,832 (76.4% Fib level over 5 yr-window).” 

“BI likely won't tolerate any sharp one-sided moves in IDR and another 50 bps hike cannot be discounted if IDR weakens aggressively against the USD and compared to its regional peers.”

Canada: Annual CPI eases to 6.9% in September vs. 6.8% expected

 

• Inflation in Canada falls at a slightly slower-than-expected pace.
• USD/CAD trims a part of its intraday gains in reaction to the data.

Inflation in Canada, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell to 6.9% in September from 7.0% in August, data published by Statistics Canada showed this Wednesday. This reading is slightly better than the market expectation of 6.8%.

The Bank of Canada's (BOC) Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, unexpectedly climbed to 6.0% on a yearly basis from 5.8% in August, again beating estimates for a reading of 5.6%.

The initial market reaction, however, is limited amid a goodish pickup in the US dollar demand, which continues to act as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

German government expects economy to contract by 0.4% in 2023 – Reuters

 The German government still expects the economy to tip into recession next year despite the gas price brake that was presented on Monday, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing government sources.

The economy is now expected to contract by 0.4% in 2023 and inflation is seen at 8% and 7% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Market reaction

This headline doesn't seem to be having a noticeable impact on risk mood. As of writing, Germany's DAX 30 Index was down 0.83% on a daily basis at 12,171.81 points.

Stocks still look expensive and valuations look high – Morgan Stanley

 Will the fourth quarter bring an end to the bear market? Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes this bear market is far from over and recommends investors consider three key dynamics to inform their equity investments going forward.

Stock investors should demand a greater premium for taking on risk

“The paths for interest rates, inflation and corporate profitability all remain uncertain. That’s why stock investors should be demanding a greater premium for taking on risk. In other words, stocks still look expensive, and valuations look high, especially given that inflation-adjusted yields have moved up.”

“Investors could be in for more surprises as they continue to overlook the impact of tightening financial conditions. They should be cautious about investing in long-duration or growth-oriented equities, which currently may not offer fair compensation for the risks of rising rates, weakening operating leverage and the strong US dollar.” 

“Any bear-market rally that may occur in the seasonally strong fourth quarter should be used for rebalancing portfolios and tax-loss harvesting.”

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD's slide is attributable mainly to USD's strength – Commerzbank

 On Monday, gold price fell to $1,620. The strong US dollar is the main culprit of the yellow metal’s woes, strategists at Commerzbank note

Gold appears to have lost its role as a safe haven to the USD

“Once again, it is the firm US dollar, which on a trade-weighted basis achieved a 20-year high, that is weighing extremely heavily on its price, as are the significantly higher bond yields.”

“Gold appears to have lost its role as a safe haven to the USD, which thanks to the Fed rate hikes is promising considerable returns again, at least in nominal terms.”

“A glance at the gold price in euros reveals that the slide in the gold price is attributable first and foremost to the strength of the USD: goldin euros has actually risen slightly of late, and at around €1,700 per troy ounce is trading back at its early September level.”

The dollar remains firm as the new week begins – BBH

 Economists at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. (BBH) maintain a bullish outlook for the US dollar amid the prevalent risk-off environment and last week's hawkish FOMC decision.

Key Quotes:

“Markets were already nervous last week as major central banks tightened aggressively but the huge fiscal policy mistake from the U.K. added further fuel to the fire.  MSCI World tumbled -5% in its worst week since mid-June and is adding to those losses today.  With global growth also slowing significantly, the backdrop for risk assets remains challenging.  We expect the dollar to continue strengthening in this environment even as Fed tightening expectations remain elevated.”

“WIRP suggests another 75 bp hike is almost fully priced in for November 2, as is a follow-up 50 bp hike December 14.  Elsewhere, the swaps market is pricing in a terminal rate of 4.75%.  As a result, U.S. rates continue to rise.  The 2-year yield traded near 4.35% today, the highest since 2007, while the 10-year yield traded near 3.82% Friday, the highest since 2010.  The real 10-year yield traded near 1.40% today, the highest since 2010.  This generalized increase in U.S. yields is likely to continue and will ultimately support the dollar.  Of note, the 3-month to 10-year curve remains positively sloped near 61 bp, the steepest since July, and so we are not yet ready to call for an imminent recession in the U.S.”

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD plunges to new two-year-lows below $1640

 

• Gold price tanked to new two-and-half years low at $1638.90.
• Global S&P PMIs revealed in the EU, UK, and the US sparked investors’ recession fears, increasing appetite for the safe-haven US dollar.
• Gold Price Analysis: A break below $1638 to send XAU/USD towards $1600.
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Gold price slides to fresh two-and-half-year lows dampened by a risk-off mood and flows towards the US dollar, which rose to new two-decade highs. Overall, US dollar strength and higher US Treasury bond yields are two reasons for the fall in the precious metals complex, mainly the yellow metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $1643.50 a troy ounce.

US equities dropped as Wall Street closed with hefty losses between 1.62% and 1.80% on Friday. The US 10-year benchmark note rate retraced from yielding 3.829% and is set to end the week below the 3.70% threshold. On the same note, the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) bond yield weighed on the non-yielding metal, set to finish at 1.33%.

USD/CNH: Next on the upside comes 7.0500 – UOB

 Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research suggests USD/CNH could retest 7.1000 once 7.0500 is cleared.

Key Quotes

“In our last Chart of the Day update from 29 Aug 2022, when USD/CNH was trading at a much lower level of 6.9200, we titled our update ‘USD/CNH could continue to advance, likely at a rapid pace as there are hardly any resistance levels of note until 7.0000’. While our view of a ‘rapid pace of advance’ was not wrong, USD/CNH did not break 7.0000 as it soared to 6.9967 about a week later before pulling back to a low of 6.9100.”

“USD/CNH rebounded sharply from 6.9100 and yesterday (15 Sep 2022), it cracked 7.0000. The break of the ‘psychological level’ resulted in a swift and sharp surge and USD/CNH continues to accelerate higher today. The price actions are not surprising as the next resistance level of note is at 7.0500. Looking ahead, if 7.0500 is broken, the focus will shift to 7.1000. Within these couple of months, the 2019 and 2020 highs, both near 7.1960, are unlikely to come into view.”

On the downside, the rising trend-line support, currently at 6.9400, is a strong support level but only a breach of the 21-day exponential moving average (at the time of writing, the level is at 6.9260) would indicate the current strong upward pressure has eased.”

Germany's Habeck: We face threat of recession next year

 German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Tuesday that their goal is to introduce a new energy market design and price reduction measures for 2022 retroactively, as reported by Reuters.

"We face a threat of recession next year," Habeck added.

Market reaction

These comments don't seem to be having a significant impact on risk mood. As of writing, Germany's DAX 30 Index was up 0.75% on the day at 13,502. Meanwhile, EUR/USD preserves its bullish momentum and continues to push higher toward 1.0200. 

EUR/GBP to extend its advance once key resistance at 0.8720 is reclaimed – SocGen

 EUR/GBP picks up bids to reverse Friday’s losses. Economists at Société Générale expect the pair to extend its race higher on a break past 0.8720.

Short-term support aligns at 0.8560

“EUR/GBP recently gave a break above the descending trend line drawn since 2020 denoting potential upside. This is also highlighted by weekly MACD which is now firmly anchored within positive territory and above its trigger.” 

“The pair is close to key graphical resistance of 0.8720. Once this is reclaimed, the up move is likely to extend towards projections of 0.8860 and perhaps even towards 0.8980/0.9010.” 

BOE’s Pill: All inflation forecasts are dependent on very volatile gas prices

 

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Bank of England (BOE) Chief Economist Huw Pill is testifying on the bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR) before Parliament's Treasury Committee on Wednesday.

Also read: Bailey speech: Confident BOE will respond to price shock

Key comments

Goldman Sachs UK inflation forecasts are mechanical implication of wholesale gas markets.

Goldman Sachs forecasts illustrate how much market prices have changed since BOE prepared Aug inflation forecast.

Some of rise in gas prices has reversed since Goldman inflation forecast.

All inflation forecasts are dependent on very volatile gas prices.

Inflation forecast also depends on machinery by which wholesale gas prices translate into retail prices.

Politicians are considering transmission of wholesale gas prices to consumer.

Seems clear to me we will see changes in this area.

Inflation impact of future fiscal stimulus depends on details.

Supporting household incomes will boost demand, leading to slightly stronger inflation.

I would expect headline inflation to decline in short term.

Implication for inflation at monetary policy relevant horizon is unclear, given lack of detail.

Very short-term impact on government measures on inflation may not be most important thing for BOE.

Must emphasise importance of BOE inflation target as anchor, not consider new regime.

We are here to ensure fiscal policy does not generate inflation.

We think output measures of GDP are better measures of activity, as less distorted by problems with trade figures.

Hopefully quality of trade data will improve over time.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Upside remains capped by 1.0100

 

• EUR/USD fades the initial bull run to 0.9985/90.
• The resumption of the selling pressure could retest the YTD low.

EUR/USD climbed to the proximity of 0.9990 earlier in the session, just to deflate afterwards and return to the 0.9930 region.

Against that, the inability of the pair to regain serious upside traction should keep the door to further retracement open in the near term. Extra losses face the immediate target at the 2022 low at 0.9877 (September 5) seconded by 0.9859 (December 2002 low) and then 0.9685 (October 2002 low).

The continuation of the downtrend remains in the pipeline, as the daily RSI around 36 still allows for some weakness prior to reach the oversold territory.

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view is expected to prevail as long as it trades below the 200-day SMA at 1.0780.

UK: Liz Truss wins contest to become the next UK Prime Minister

 Liz Truss won the Conservative Party leadership race to become the next British Prime Minister.

"I will deal with long-term issues on energy supply," Liz Truss said in her acceptance speech and noted that she will deal with the crisis in households' energy bills.

Additional takeaways

"I will govern as a conservative."

"I intend to deliver what we promised voters in 2019."

"I will deliver a bold plan to cut taxes and grow our economy."

"We will deliver a great victory for the conservative party in 2024."

Market reaction

The UK's FTSE 100 Index showed no immediate reaction to these comments and was last seen losing 0.6% on a daily basis. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair continues to fluctuate at around 1.1500 during the European trading hours.

Iran Foreign Minister: Carefully reviewing EU-drafted text for revival of 2015 nuclear pact

 Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Wednesday that Tehran is carefully reviewing the EU-drafted text for the revival of the 2015 nuclear pact, as reported by Reuters. 

"We need stronger guarantees from the other party to have a sustainable deal,"  Amirabdollahian added. "The (U.N.) agency should close its politically-motivated probes."

Market reaction

Crude oil prices showed no immediate reaction to these comments. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading at $89.10, where it was down 3.5% on a daily basis. 

When are the US durable goods orders and how could they affect EUR/USD?

 

US durable goods orders overview

Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of Durable Goods Orders data for July. The US Census Bureau will publish the monthly report at 12:30 GMT and is expected to show that headline orders rose 0.6% during the reported month, marking a notable slowdown from the 2% increase recorded in June. Orders excluding transportation items, which tend to have a broader impact, are anticipated to grow by a modest 0.2% in July as compared to a 0.4% rise reported in the previous month.

Analysts at Wells Fargo offer a brief preview of the report and explain: “Demand for goods is slowing. That is as true for business spending as it is for personal consumption. For businesses, the growing concern the economy is about to tip into recession is weighing on activity, as well as higher borrowing costs and demand largely having been pulled forward throughout the pandemic.”

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the key data, the emergence of fresh US dollar buying drags the EUR/USD pair back closer to its lowest level since December 2002 touched the previous day. A stronger-than-expected domestic data will reinforce hawkish Fed expectations, which, in turn, should result in higher US Treasury bond yields and a stronger USD.

Conversely, a weaker report will further fuel concerns about a global economic downturn and weigh on investors' sentiment, offering some support to the greenback's safe-haven status. This, along with fears of a prolonged energy-supply crunch in the Eurozone, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside.

That said, any immediate market reaction is more likely to be short-lived as market participants might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Nevertheless, a big divergence from the expected readings might still provide some meaningful impetus to the EUR/USD pair.

Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, meanwhile, offered a brief technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair: “On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays well below 40 after having moved out of the oversold territory on Tuesday. Additionally, EUR/USD is yet to make a four-hour close above the descending regression channel coming from August 12. Both of these technical developments suggest that the pair's latest recovery was a technical correction rather than a reversal..”

Eren also outlined important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “In case the pair starts using 0.9950 (static level, upper limit of the descending regression channel) as support, it could face interim resistance at 0.9975 (20-period SMA) before testing parity. On the downside, 0.9900 (static level, psychological level) aligns as first support before 0.9870 (former resistance area from October 2002) and 0.9800 (psychological level).”

USD/TRY leaps to fresh 2022 peaks past 18.00 after CBRT cut rates

 

• USD/TRY clinches new YTD tops beyond the 18.00 mark.
• The pair now targets the all-time top at 18.25 (December 20 2021).
• The Turkish central bank reduced the policy rate by 100 bps.
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The Turkish lira debilitates to fresh lows vs. the greenback and pushes USD/TRY past the 18.00 yardstick for the first time since December 2021.

USD/TRY now targets the all-time high at 18.25

USD/TRY leaves behind the key barrier at 18.00 after the Turkish central bank (CBRT) caught the markets off guard and reduced the One-Week Repo Rate by a full point to 13.00% at its meeting earlier on Thursday. the central bank also cut the Overnight Borrowing Rate and the Overnight Lending Rate by 100 bps to 11.50% and 14.50%, respectively.

In its statement, the CBRT continues to see domestic inflation largely driven by higher energy costs exclusively on the back of geopolitical events and “effects of pricing formations that are not supported by economic fundamentals”.

Dollar stuck ahead of key U.S. inflation print

 LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar lurked below recent highs on Tuesday as traders awaited this week's key U.S. inflation print for any signs that price pressures are finally abating and that the need for further aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes is easing.

Unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs data on Friday had boosted the greenback, which posted its biggest daily percentage gain since mid-June against the yen that day as investors ramped up bets on a 75 basis point (bps) rate rise in September.

But the currency has pulled back since then as focus shifted to Wednesday's July consumer price index (CPI).

The dollar index, which measures the currency's value against a basket of other peers, was marginally lower at 106.23. It held below a more than one-week peak hit on Friday at 106.93.

Sterling was little changed at around $1.2055 and the euro was 0.2% firmer at $1.0213. The dollar was also flat around 134.90 yen.

"I'm a bit concerned about inflation tomorrow. The market has been wrong-footed all year and if we get a strong core inflation print that will nail expectations for a 75 bps rate hike in September," said Kenneth Broux, a currency strategist at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) in London.

"It's too soon to say it's time to short the dollar as the Fed may have to do more."

The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked rates by a hefty 75 bps in June and July. Money-market futures show traders see about a two-thirds chance of a 75 bps hike next month and have started pushing expectations for rate cuts deeper into 2023.

Economists polled by Reuters see year-on-year headline inflation at 8.7% - incredibly high, but below last month's 9.1% figure. The Fed targets inflation at 2%.

Last week's strong labour data stoked expectations of aggressive near-term hikes, pushing short-dated Treasury yields further above long-term peers.

The gap between two and 10-year Treasury yields, a reliable recession indicator, has grown to its largest in two decades. [US/]

On Monday, a New York Fed survey showed consumers' inflation expectations fell sharply in July, perhaps offering a sliver of hope that the CPI release brings relief.

"The market understandably is waiting for the numbers to then reprice, rather than moving in anticipation of them," said Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) in Sydney.

The dollar's haven status, though, makes the greenback's reaction a little harder to predict, especially as growth and geopolitical worries swirl.

Consumer confidence slid in Australia for a ninth straight month and the Australian and New Zealand dollars edged lower as London trade got under way.

China extended military drills near Taiwan, and the self-ruled island's foreign minister said China was using the drills launched in protest against U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit as an excuse to prepare for an invasion.

When is the Canadian monthly jobs report and how could it affect USD/CAD?

 

Canadian employment details overview

Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish the monthly employment details for July later this Friday at 12:30 GMT. The Canadian economy is anticipated to have added 20K jobs during the reported month, up sharply from the 43.2K decline reported in June. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 5.0% in July from the 4.9% previous.

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) are more optimistic about the report and explain: “We look for job growth of 38k in July, driven by a partial rebound for trade services and natural resources after their sharp decline in June. Full-time hiring should lead the increase, while stronger labour force participation should keep unemployment stable at 4.9%. We also expect to see wage growth firm to 6.0% y/y in July, although AHE (Average Hourly Earnings) should slow on a m/m basis.”

Bailey speech: Will not comment on Conservative leadership candidates' plans

 

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Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is delivering his remarks on the policy outlook and responding to questions from the press following the bank's decision to hike the policy rate by 50 basis points to 1.75%.

Key takeaways

"BOE will not comment on Conservative leadership candidates' plans."

"BOE has a very clear mandate of price stability."

"Consequences of Russia's actions in Ukraine have a serious economic impact."

"Political pressures have been very well managed since BOE independence."

"I have not abandoned the narrow path analogy for UK policy outlook."

"A number of central banks have a similar narrow path to tread."

About Andrew Bailey (via bankofengland.co.uk)

"Andrew Bailey previously held the role of Deputy Governor, Prudential Regulation and CEO of the PRA from 1 April 2013. While retaining his role as Executive Director of the Bank, Andrew joined the Financial Services Authority in April 2011 as Deputy Head of the Prudential Business Unit and Director of UK Banks and Building Societies. In July 2012, Andrew became Managing Director of the Prudential Business Unit, with responsibility for the prudential supervision of banks, investment banks and insurance companies. Andrew was appointed as a voting member of the interim Financial Policy Committee at its June 2012 meeting."