The data published by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed on Wednesday that private sector employment in the US rose by 239,000 in October. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 193,000. September print of 208,000 got revised down to 192,000.
Developing story...
The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to this data and was last seen losing 0.22% on the day at 111.30.
Economist at UOB Group Ho Woei Chen, CFA, comments on the latest interest rate decision by the Bank of Korea (BoK).
“Bank of Korea (BoK) ratcheted up its benchmark base rate by an outsized 50bps to 3.00% in Oct. This was the second time that the central bank had hiked by a 50bps pace following a similar move in Jul. The strengthened policy move was in response to the high inflation as well as sharp depreciation in the won which was seen adding more inflationary pressure through higher imported prices.”
“Despite opting for a larger 50bps hike, BoK’s tone was evidently more downbeat as Governor Rhee Chang-yong flagged weaker growth outlook for the global and South Korean economies.”
DXY’s multi-session strong advance has faltered around the 113.60 region on Wednesday.
If bulls push harder and the index surpasses 114.00, then the next target of note should turn up at the 2022 high at 114.78 (September 28) prior to the round level at 115.00.
The prospects for extra gains in the dollar should remain unchanged as long as the index trades above the 7-month support line near 107.80.
In the longer run, DXY is expected to maintain its constructive stance while above the 200-day SMA at 103.10.
LONDON (Reuters) - The euro was hovering above Tuesday's two-decade low on Thursday as investors awaited a policy decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) and comments from the head of the Federal Reserve for insight on the path for global monetary tightening.
The ECB is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points (bps), taking its deposit rate above zero for the first time since 2012, but the option of a smaller 50 basis point hike hasn't been ruled out.
"We expect the ECB to only do 50 basis points today, instead of the consensus view of 75," said Chris Turner, head of markets at ING. "If that's the case, we think euro-dollar probably corrects back down to about $0.99."
By 0747 GMT, the euro was trading down 0.3% at $0.99795, holding above its lowest level since late 2002 of $0.9864 as Europe's energy crisis keeps the single currency under pressure and the dollar reigns as the Fed reiterates its commitment to bring inflation down to target.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to participate in a discussion at 1310 GMT -- overlapping with ECB chief Lagarde's post-decision press conference -- with Fed officials soon due to enter into a blackout period prior to the central bank's Sept. 20-21 meeting.
Recent Fed rhetoric has continued to be hawkish overall.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday that bringing inflation back down to 2% is the Fed's "Job One," while Vice Chair Lael Brainard said tight monetary policy will continue "for as long as it takes to get inflation down."
Money markets lay 79% odds that the Fed will hike by another 75 basis points at this month's meeting, which would increase the fed funds rate to 3.0% to 3.25%.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six major counterparts, edged up 0.1% lower to 109.82, after hitting a peak at 110.79 on Wednesday, a level not seen since June 2002.
Sterling weakened 0.4% to $1.1486, heading back toward the previous day's 37-year low of $1.1407, ahead of new British Prime Minister Liz Truss's announcement on her plans to tackle soaring energy bills.
Japan's yen showed some resilience on Thursday, trading little changed at 143.77 per dollar, after reaching a 24-year low of 144.99 in the previous session.
The yen has been a particular victim of recent dollar strength, partly due to its sensitivity to rising long-term U.S. yields as hawkish Fed bets ramped up and the Bank of Japan remains the holdout dovish central bank.
"Ongoing depreciation pressure on the yen has raised the probability of a change in policy (from the Bank of Japan) later this year," Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts said in a research note.
"If the BoJ drops YCC (yield curve control), rate differentials vs the U.S. should stop widening, and the rise in USD/JPY should pause or reverse."
Officials from Japan's Finance Ministry, Bank of Japan and Financial Services Agency are meeting today to discuss global financial markets, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) said.
Meanwhile, the Aussie fell 0.5% to $0.67345, earlier tumbling as low as $0.6713, after RBA Governor Lowe said in a speech "the case for a slower pace of increase in interest rates becomes stronger as the level of the cash rate rises."
The Turkish lira debilitates to fresh lows vs. the greenback and pushes USD/TRY past the 18.00 yardstick for the first time since December 2021.
USD/TRY leaves behind the key barrier at 18.00 after the Turkish central bank (CBRT) caught the markets off guard and reduced the One-Week Repo Rate by a full point to 13.00% at its meeting earlier on Thursday. the central bank also cut the Overnight Borrowing Rate and the Overnight Lending Rate by 100 bps to 11.50% and 14.50%, respectively.
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0220, after hitting a daily high at 1.0254, but later tumbled towards the daily low at 1.0145 on elevated US inflation data. In June, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose by 6.8% YoY, fueling expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, despite the market's pricing in only 80 bps of tightening.
From a daily chart perspective, the EUR/USD remains neutral-to-downward biased, helped by the 20-day EMA lying below the exchange rate at 1.0167. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD, unable to capitalize on an upbeat market mood, and broad US dollar weakness, keeps the shared currency exposed to further selling pressure. If EUR/USD buyers want to shift the bias to neutral, they must reclaim the May 13 low-turned-resistance at 1.0348. Once cleared, a challenge of the 50-day EMA at 1.0423 is on the cards. On the other hand, if EUR/USD sellers achieve a daily close below 1.0200, that would pave the road towards 1.0096.
"It is with sadness that I am resigning as Housing Minister," Conservative MP for Pudsey Stuart Andrew announced via Twitter on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Sajid Javid, former British Health Minister who quit in protest at Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday, told Parliament that it had become increasingly difficult to be in PM's team.
"It's not fair on conservative voters who expect better standards," Javid added. "At some point, we have to conclude that enough is enough. That point is now."
GBP/USD stays under heavy bearish pressure on Wednesday and was last seen trading at its weakest level since March 2020 at 1.1877, losing 0.67% on a daily basis.
The latest candle on the four-hour chart closed below 1.0700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the same chart stays near 40 and the descending line coming from April 21 stays intact, highlighting EUR/USD's bearish bias in the near term.
It's worth noting that EUR/USD will touch its weakest level since April 2017 with a drop below 1.0635. Sellers might see such a move as a profit-taking opportunity and trigger a correction in the pair. In that case, 1.0700 (psychological level) aligns as the next recovery target before 1.0730 (static level) and 1.0760 (static level).
On the downside, a daily close below 1.0640 is likely to open the door for additional losses toward 1.0600 (psychological level) and 1.0570 (static level from March 2017).
Russia and Ukraine on Thursday agreed on the need for humanitarian corridors to help civilians escape Moscow's eight-day invasion, the first clear progress in the talks, as the United States in addition to Western sanctions on more oligarchs.
Thousands of people are believed to have died or been injured in the biggest attack on a European country since the outbreak of World War Two, creating 1 million refugees, affecting the Russian economy and worrying concerns about broader conflict in the West for decades.
Russian forces continue to besiege and attack Ukrainian cities, including Mariupol, the main eastern port that is under heavy shelling, without electricity or water. Officials said they were unable to evacuate the injured.
After talks at an undisclosed location, Russia said "significant progress" had been made, but not the outcome Kyiv had hoped for.
The two sides agreed to conduct a third round of negotiations.
- In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold fell from 1947 to 1914 ($33), closing the day session with a bearish candle around 1927. The drop was not too strong and recovered in end of trading day. In my personal opinion, the increasing force of Gold is still dominant, so in today's session, the option will be to buy.
- On the H4 time frame, the nearest support area for this precious metal is around 1914-1919. Here we can establish a long position with a safe target around 1935-1940. Then there is a signal I will update later.
European Commission President Says Financial Sanctions Target 70% of Russian Banks!
Von Der Leyen said the steps agreed by EU leaders include financial sanctions, targeting 70% of Russian banks and key state-owned companies, including in the defense sector.
- Sanctions against Russia will increase Russia's borrowing costs and increase inflation
- In yesterday's trading session Gold only fell slightly to 1887 then bounced back to around 1905, closing the day session with a bullish candle around 1903. With the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalating. The high again makes the prospect of reconciliation between the parties dim at the moment, so in my opinion, Gold will continue to be pushed up in today's session.
- Switching to a smaller time frame of H4 we can see that Gold is unlikely to have a big correction and the 1905-1902 price zone is the closest support area to push this precious metal up with a safe target. will be 1916-1921, expect to be 193x in today's trading session.
- In the last trading week, precious metal Gold had a good week of growth from 1844 to 1902, closing the week session with a bullish candle around 1898, this is the highest price range that Gold reached. within the past 7 months. With Gold showing such good upward force, in my opinion in the coming time this precious metal will continue to conquer the next peaks.
- Early this morning Gold bounced slightly to the 1908 price zone, this is the resistance zone of precious metal Gold and the possibility of a slight downward correction, so we can establish a sell position with this metal with The safe target is around 1885. Here we will wait for the price reaction to see whether to buy or not, then I will have an update.
- In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold rebounded strongly from 1867 to 1901, closing the day session with a strong bullish candle that broke the previous resistance area of 1878. With this overwhelming bullish force, in my opinion, precious metal Gold will continue to gain momentum in today's session.
- Moving to the H4 time frame Gold is currently having a slight downward correction and I expect Gold to fall around 1880-1885, this is the closest support price to the precious metal Gold that we can establish. establish a buy position with a safe target around 1902 and expect 1910-1915.
- After touching the right analytical price zone of 1878 precious metals Gold dropped quite strongly to 1844, closing the day session with a bearish candle around 1853. This is also the closest support area for metals. gold and in my personal opinion the possibility of Gold recovering slightly in the early hours of this morning.
- Looking at the H4 chart frame, we can see that Gold is currently leveling off at MA20 and in my opinion Gold can recover to 1858-1861 we can establish a buy position with this precious metal with the aim spend as above. After coming here, the possibility that Gold will experience downward pressure, I will update later.
- In yesterday's trading session, it was quite unfortunate that Gold had not touched the limit price range, the price only dropped to 1850 then bounced up to 1874 and closed the day session with a bullish candle around 1871. Gold's rebounding force This is something we can all see, but currently Gold is facing a resistance zone around 1876-1878. In my personal opinion, we will wait for Gold to correct so that we can establish a buy position in today's session. - The nearest support area for this precious metal is around 1858-1861. We can wait until Gold corrects to be able to establish a buy position with the target to break "old 1878 high.
True in Trading too. It is difficult to make easy profits following the crowd. Make yourself a better trader at all market conditions by learning and backtesting the unique trading startegies
Applicable for Traders while holding any trade positions. Agree?
Ask yourself:What do you feel while holding your trade positions?
How to Control your Emotions in trading?
✅You can reduce your trading account leverage to 1:100 and give the password access to your friend or loved one and tell them to change it. (password access for your brokerage website where you can change leverage)
Now you are going to trade with a small lot size. This will help you to self improve yourself in handling emotions for taking high lots.
Be patience with this process. You will definitely see a good result.
We always want you to trade safe at all the market conditions.
Those who think - You feel fear, frustration, anxiety, impatience, tension, etc. while holding the trade positions.
Please ask yourself : How can you reduce this?
If you use a small lot size, can you reduce your fear, anxiousness, impatience...?
If you behave well using a small lot - that would be great.
Use small lot size at all the times. when you feel confident about the trade setup, you can increase your lot size. but don't be over confident.
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