Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to see a fresh bull trend only above the $2,070/75 highs – Credit Suisse

 

Gold maintains a slight upward bias in its broader sideways range. A break past the $2,070/75 highs would resolve the range higher for a fresh bull trend, strategists at Credit Suisse report.

Break below $1,877 to reassert the broad sideways range

“Gold above $1,877 can maintain an immediate upward bias in the broader sideways range.”

“Only above the $2,070/75 highs though would be seen to resolve the range higher for a fresh bull trend, with resistance then seen at $2,280/2,300.”

“A break below $1,877 can further reassert the broad sideways range with support then seen next at $1,845/31.”

EUR/USD: A test of the March 7 low near 1.0805 is still in the cards – BBH

 The euro bounced after the French election but remains heavy near 1.09. Economists at BBH note that the EUR/USD pair may test the March 7 low near 1.0805.

Run-off will be held between Macron and Le Pen

“Macron got 28% of the vote vs. 24% for Le Pen in the first round. One early poll shows Macron winning 54-46% in the second round, while another one is a lot closer at 51-49%. We warn of the so-called Bradley effect, which suggests that the polls will likely understate Le Pen’s support. If polls tighten up ahead of the runoff, we expect markets to become more jittery.”

“A break above 1.1050 is needed to signal a deeper correction towards the March 31 high near 1.1185.” 

“A test of the March 7 low near 1.0805 is still in the cards.”

EUR/USD pares back from multi-week highs in 1.1160s, still well supported after hot EZ inflation readings

 

• EUR/USD has pulled back from earlier multi-week highs in the 1.1160s but remains well supported in the 1.1140 area.
• USD continues to suffer from broad weakness versus the majority of its G10 counterparts despite less optimistic Russo-Ukraine updates.
• Meanwhile, hot Eurozone inflation data has encouraged euro buying as US data comes into focus.

Though the pair has waned from its earlier multi-week highs in the 1.1160s after selling pressure ahead of the 50-Day Moving Average near 1.1180 emerged, EUR/USD continues to trade with healthy on-the-day gains of about 0.4% in the 1.1130s. The US dollar continues to suffer from broad weakness versus the majority of its G10 counterparts, even as recent tailwinds in the global equity space subside amid less optimistic headlines regarding Russo-Ukraine peace talks, lifting EUR/USD. Another factor likely encouraging euro buying against the buck is recent hot inflation readings coming out of the Eurozone which, as ECB President Christine Lagarde this morning remarked, support the ECB’s recent shift towards ending QE in Q3 and signaling rate hikes in Q4.

Ahead of the release of preliminary national German Consumer Price Inflation metrics for March at 1300BST, regional state CPI data releases earlier in the session saw sizeable MoM and YoY gains. Meanwhile, the preliminary estimate of Spanish headline HICP inflation in March hit a staggering 9.8%, well above the 8.1% expected. Upcoming German inflation figures are expected to be hot and thus may not provoke a market reaction, and EUR/USD focus will quickly shift to US data scheduled for release shortly after. US private payroll company ADP releases its estimate of US employment change in March at 1315BST and, though ADP’s metric has been a poor predictor of the official NFP in recent months, traders will nonetheless take note.

Shortly after at 1330BST, the final estimate of US GDP growth in Q4 2021 will be released and there will be remarks from Fed’s Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic and Esther George, all of whom support the Fed’s recent hawkish shift. Fed hawkishness/strong economic data is arguably well priced into USD at this point, and further profit-taking on US dollar longs coupled with inflationary Eurozone data may well mean EUR/USD remains supported above 1.1100 and eyes a move towards 1.1200.

XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

 Gold (XAU/USD) bias is still up, but it would remain under selling pressure. Failure to reclaim February 24 daily high at $1974 left the precious metal exposed to selling pressure unless XAU bulls recover the aforementioned. It is worth noting that the 200-day moving average (DMA) at $1816.85, from an upslope, is horizontal, indicating that the steep rally above $2000 might be subject to a further correction lower.

Upwards, XAU/USD’s first resistance would be $1974. Once cleared, the next resistance would be $2000, and the YTD high at $2075.82.

On the flip side, and the most likely scenario, XAU/USD’s first support would be March 20 low at $1950.30. Breach of the latter would expose March 16 daily low at $1895.06, followed by November 16, 2021, low at $1877.14.

Euro edges higher as focus on Ukraine, yen rebounds vs dollar

The euro was edging higher on Friday, but concerns about a potential slowdown of the economy kept it in a tight range, while the dollar weakened as investors priced in the expected monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve.

"The combination of lingering Russia-related risks, high energy prices and Fed-ECB policy divergence still points to a weaker, rather than stronger, EUR/USD,” ING analysts said.

"EUR-USD remains quite stuck at around 1.10, with better-than-expected PMI surveys across the eurozone for March not sufficient to induce buying interest,” Unicredit (MI:CRDI) analysts said in a research note.

German business morale deteriorated in March due to worsening supply chain issues resulting from high petrol prices and driver shortages, a survey showed on Friday.

The single currency rose 0.1% to $1.1016

Derek Halpenny, head of global research markets at MUFG, said in a note to clients that some renewed optimism over the prospect of the end of the conflict in Ukraine “helped improve financial market conditions and weaken the U.S. dollar.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukrainians "need to achieve peace" and halt Russian bombardment.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, edged 0.1% lower to 98.631

BofA analysts underlined markets priced in next moves from the Fed even before it started and a lot more rapidly than during the previous tightening cycle between 2015 and 2018.

Money markets are betting on 190 bps of Fed rate hikes by year-end, including an 80% chance of a 50 bps in May. [IRPR]

Japan’s yen staged a rebound versus the greenback, up 0.6%, after hitting a fresh low since December 2015 overnight on the difference in rate hike expectations between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks.

Analysts flagged that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) provided a bullish signal as it refrained from stepping into the market Friday morning, even as the 10-year government bond yield rose above the level at which the central bank had offered to buy an unlimited amount in February.

However, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda clarified that a weak yen benefits the economy.

“We don't expect a significant further depreciation of the yen versus the dollar. We think that at 115, it is fairly valued considering the Japanese central bank's dovish stance,” Roman Ziruk, market analyst at Ebury, said.

The Norwegian crown was down 0.2% lower against the euro after rising the previous day as the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate and said it now plans to hike at a faster pace than previously intended.

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Series on the Russia-Ukraine Crisis:

Russia and Ukraine on Thursday agreed on the need for humanitarian corridors to help civilians escape Moscow's eight-day invasion, the first clear progress in the talks, as the United States  in addition to Western sanctions on more oligarchs.

 Thousands of people are believed to have died or been injured in the biggest attack on a European country since the outbreak of World War Two, creating 1 million refugees, affecting the Russian economy and worrying  concerns about broader conflict in the West for decades.

 Russian forces continue to besiege and attack Ukrainian cities, including Mariupol, the main eastern port that is under heavy shelling, without electricity or water.  Officials said they were unable to evacuate the injured.

 After talks at an undisclosed location, Russia said "significant progress" had been made, but not the outcome Kyiv had hoped for.

 The two sides agreed to conduct a third round of negotiations.

Prediction on Gold on 03/03/2022:

- In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold fell from 1947 to 1914 ($33), closing the day session with a bearish candle around 1927. The drop was not too strong and recovered in  end of trading day.  In my personal opinion, the increasing force of Gold is still dominant, so in today's session, the option will be to buy.

 - On the H4 time frame, the nearest support area for this precious metal is around 1914-1919.  Here we can establish a long position with a safe target around 1935-1940.  Then there is a signal I will update later.

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 European Commission President Says Financial Sanctions Target 70% of Russian Banks!

 Von Der Leyen said the steps agreed by EU leaders include financial sanctions, targeting 70% of Russian banks and key state-owned companies, including in the defense sector.

 - Sanctions against Russia will increase Russia's borrowing costs and increase inflation

📕 Comment on Gold on February 23, 2022:

 

- In yesterday's session, precious metal Gold, after bouncing up to 1913, fell to 1891, then fluctuated in two directions in 1894-1905, closing the day session with a bearish candle around 1898. Although it closed with a bearish candle, the decline in Gold was not strong and the criticized between the US and Russia related to the Ukraine crisis boosted safe-haven demand for the precious metal. So in my personal opinion Gold will still be supported uptrend in today's session. - Currently around 1893-1898 is the closest support area for this precious metal, where investors can establish a buy position with a safe target around 1912 and expect it to be around 1912. 192x in today's trading session.

Prediction on Gold on 22/02/2022:

- In yesterday's trading session Gold only fell slightly to 1887 then bounced back to around 1905, closing the day session with a bullish candle around 1903. With the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalating. The high again makes the prospect of reconciliation between the parties dim at the moment, so in my opinion, Gold will continue to be pushed up in today's session.

- Switching to a smaller time frame of H4 we can see that Gold is unlikely to have a big correction and the 1905-1902 price zone is the closest support area to push this precious metal up with a safe target. will be 1916-1921, expect to be 193x in today's trading session.

📕 Comment on Gold on February 21, 2022:

- In the last trading week, precious metal Gold had a good week of growth from 1844 to 1902, closing the week session with a bullish candle around 1898, this is the highest price range that Gold reached. within the past 7 months. With Gold showing such good upward force, in my opinion in the coming time this precious metal will continue to conquer the next peaks.

 - Early this morning Gold bounced slightly to the 1908 price zone, this is the resistance zone of precious metal Gold and the possibility of a slight downward correction, so we can establish a sell position with this metal with The safe target is around 1885. Here we will wait for the price reaction to see whether to buy or not, then I will have an update.

Comment on Gold on February 18, 2022:

 - In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold rebounded strongly from 1867 to 1901, closing the day session with a strong bullish candle that broke the previous resistance area of 1878.  With this overwhelming bullish force, in my opinion, precious metal Gold will continue to gain momentum in today's session.

 - Moving to the H4 time frame Gold is currently having a slight downward correction and I expect Gold to fall around 1880-1885, this is the closest support price to the precious metal Gold that we can establish.  establish a buy position with a safe target around 1902 and expect 1910-1915.

📕 Prediction on Gold on February 17, 2022:

- In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold went right in its analysis when it bounced up from 1850 to 1872, closing yesterday's session with a bullish candle around 1869. With Gold in today's trading session. Yesterday, it regained its upward momentum after having 1 previous decline, in my opinion, it is likely that in today's session, Gold will still be supported by this increase.

 - Switching to the H4 time frame, we can see that the increase of the last 3 candles is relatively good and if in the beginning of today's session, Gold has a slight correction around 1862, this is an opportunity. so that ace can establish a buy position with a safe target in the "old top" zone 1872-1878.

📕 Comment on Gold on February 16, 2022:

 - After touching the right analytical price zone of 1878 precious metals Gold dropped quite strongly to 1844, closing the day session with a bearish candle around 1853. This is also the closest support area for metals. gold and in my personal opinion the possibility of Gold recovering slightly in the early hours of this morning.

 - Looking at the H4 chart frame, we can see that Gold is currently leveling off at MA20 and in my opinion Gold can recover to 1858-1861 we can establish a buy position with this precious metal with the aim spend as above. After coming here, the possibility that Gold will experience downward pressure, I will update later.

📕Analysis on Gold on February 15, 2022:

- In yesterday's trading session, it was quite unfortunate that Gold had not touched the limit price range, the price only dropped to 1850 then bounced up to 1874 and closed the day session with a bullish candle around 1871. Gold's rebounding force This is something we can all see, but currently Gold is facing a resistance zone around 1876-1878. In my personal opinion, we will wait for Gold to correct so that we can establish a buy position in today's session. - The nearest support area for this precious metal is around 1858-1861. We can wait until Gold corrects to be able to establish a buy position with the target to break "old 1878 high.

🌏DAILY NEWS HIGHLIGHTS! 🌏 On 31 January 2022-

📌 Streaming video no longer impresses investors, so media companies need a next act. It may be time for streaming services to introduce more out-of-the box ways to grow subscribers. Netflix’s dramatic share plunge in January may put more pressure on legacy media companies to show growth.

📌 Blackstone Tees Up $11 Billion in Fresh Capital for Asia Deals. Blackstone is doubling down in Asia despite increasing risks from inflation and geopolitical tension.

📌 China Picks Cities, Entities to Take Part in Blockchain Trials. The program is aimed at “sufficiently letting the blockchain technology play its role in facilitating data sharing, optimizing business procedures, lowering costs, improving synergy and building reliable systems.”

📌 Stock Market Jitters Don’t Endanger Economy Yet. Recent market turmoil doesn’t mean the economy is about to be derailed, but rather the recovery is maturing and no longer needs low interest rates, economists and Fed officials.

📌 Drugmakers Raised Prices by 6.6% on Average Early This Year. Drug companies’ prescription-drug price increases were mostly in the single digits as Congress explores measures to curb high costs.

Market Manufacturing PMI, Germany on 24 January 2022

WHAT IT INFLUENCES: EUR and its subsequent pairs

WHAT'S HAPPENING: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit economics, captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of the total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and Germany's overall economic condition. Typically, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.