Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to see a fresh bull trend only above the $2,070/75 highs – Credit Suisse

 

Gold maintains a slight upward bias in its broader sideways range. A break past the $2,070/75 highs would resolve the range higher for a fresh bull trend, strategists at Credit Suisse report.

Break below $1,877 to reassert the broad sideways range

“Gold above $1,877 can maintain an immediate upward bias in the broader sideways range.”

“Only above the $2,070/75 highs though would be seen to resolve the range higher for a fresh bull trend, with resistance then seen at $2,280/2,300.”

“A break below $1,877 can further reassert the broad sideways range with support then seen next at $1,845/31.”

📕 Comment on Gold on April 7, 2022:

  📕 Comment on Gold on April 7, 2022:

 - In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold fell from 1933 to 1915. Yesterday's closing session was around 1924. With Gold not having too many fluctuations in yesterday's session, our opinion  My personal preference remains the same as in recent days it is preferable to sell if Gold is in the 1930-1940 zone.

 - On the D1 chart we can see that although yesterday closed with a bullish candle, in fact this candle did not show an increase, but instead, the increasing force seems to be weaker compared to the previous days.  The proof is that last night the highest price Gold recovered was around the threshold of 1932. So in today's session, I think it is possible to sell down with Gold around 1926-1930 with a safe target of 1915-1920.  and my expectation Gold will go even deeper.

 

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD under pressure amid surging bond yields 

Gold price is weaker as the new week gets underway. Surging US Treasury bond yields and the dollar on the front foot are dragging down the yellow metal, economists at Comemrzbank report.

Rising interest rate expectations weight on gold

“Gold fell sharply to start the week. We attribute this on the one hand to the US dollar, which is continuing to appreciate. And on the other hand, bond yields are climbing further.” 

“We believe the rise in yields and thus the increase in real interest rates are due to the higher interest rate expectations of market participants. The Fed Fund Futures are meanwhile pricing in rate hikes of 90 basis points at the next two meetings of the US Federal Reserve. In our view the gold price is holding its own impressively well against this backdrop.”

“ETF investors have also not allowed themselves to be deterred as yet: the gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg registered inflows of 43 tons last week – already their tenth weekly inflow in succession. By contrast, speculative financial investors have withdrawn further from gold, according to the CFTC’s statistics: they slashed their net long positions by 9% to a six-week low in the week to 22 March.”
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USD/JPY to suffer a decline toward 121.00 but still targeting mid-120s – OCBC

 USD/JPY pushed through 122.00 on Thursday. Some retracement is seen today, though in the near-term, the focus will still be on USD/JPY upside as the pair pushes closer to mid-120s. 

Technical pull-backs on the cards

“Even as we are structurally positive on the USD/JPY towards the mid-120s, do not rule out technical pull-backs. The 121.00 locus may be the first support in that case.”

“For now, the BoJ and Fin Min have refrained from directly commenting on JPY weakness.”

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stays on the way to $1,960, NATO, yields eyed

• Gold prices stay above short-term key resistance, now support, despite retreating from weekly top.
• Yields underpin USD rebound but all depends upon today’s NATO summit, US data.
• Intraday bears may take entries below $1,937 but $1,930 holds the key for further weakness.

Gold (XAU/USD) bulls faced rejection around $1,949 heading into Thursday’s European session, having cheered the pullback in US Treasury yields with the biggest daily jump in two weeks the previous day.

That said, the yellow metal’s pullback could be linked to the firmer US dollar and a rebound in the T-bond yields, which in turn take clues from hawkish Fedspeak and fears of an escalation in the Ukraine-Russia war.

Also underpinning the US dollar’s safe-haven demand is the covid resurgence in China and Europe, as well as market’s anxiety ahead of the US preliminary PMIs for March and Durable Goods Orders for February.

Additionally, risk-negative headlines ahead of US President Biden’s meeting with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies in Europe also challenge gold prices of late.

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Russian rouble falls to record lows after ratings downgrades

The Russian rouble slid further on Thursday, hitting record lows against the dollar and euro, after ratings agencies Fitch and Moody's (NYSE:MCO) downgraded Russia's sovereign debt to "junk" status citing the impact of Western sanctions.

At 0830 GMT, the rouble was more than 10% weaker against the dollar at 117.5 and had lost over 7% against the euro to trade at 124.1 on the Moscow Exchange, marking the first time the rouble has traded above 110 to the dollar in Moscow.

The Russian central bank imposed a 30% commission on foreign currency purchases by individuals on currency exchanges - a move brokers said appeared designed to curb demand for dollars - but that did little to halt the rouble's slide.

Russia's financial markets have been thrown into turmoil by sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine, the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two.

Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" that it says is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its southern neighbour's military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists.

Since Russian troops entered Ukraine on Feb. 24 the rouble is down close to 30% against the dollar, and analysts said on Thursday it would probably remain highly volatile. The government has ordered Russian exporters to convert 80% of their forex revenues into roubles to support the local currency, but people are still queuing up at banks to buy dollars as the rouble slumps.

Trading on the Moscow Exchange's stock section remained largely closed on Thursday, a fourth day of restrictions ordered by the central bank.

Overnight, Fitch said that U.S. and European Union sanctions prohibiting any transactions with the Bank of Russia would have a "much larger impact on Russia's credit fundamentals than any previous sanctions". Moody's said the severity of the sanctions "have gone beyond Moody's initial expectations and will have material credit implications".

S&P lowered Russia's rating to sub-investment grade last week.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed in response have led to dire warnings about the Russian economy, with the Institute of International Finance predicting a double-digit contraction in growth this year.

On Wednesday, index providers FTSE Russell and MSCI said they would remove Russian equities from all their indexes, after a top MSCI executive earlier this week called Russia's stock market "uninvestable".

Comment on Gold on February 28, 2022:

 Last week, we saw very strong fluctuations, Gold price bounced up quickly to 1974 and then fell sharply to 1877, closing the session with a bearish candle around 1889. At the beginning of the session.  this morning's trading World gold opened the first session of the week with about GAP increasing to nearly 1930 at the opening session and then decreasing after that.  With the Russian military campaign in Ukraine along with the tension of the US and its allies, it is very difficult at this time for Gold to fall deeply, so in my opinion, the possibility of Gold will continue to gain momentum.  get a raise.

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On the H4 time frame, Gold is showing signs of completing the GAP and if Gold returns to around 1900, this is the price range we can consider buying in with this precious metal with a target of 193x.  Another note is that currently, the amplitude of Gold at this time will be quite large, so everyone balances the volume and capital for safer transactions.

EURO POUNDS HIGH ON FRIDAY

 LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices recouped losses on Wednesday as investors weighed conflicting statements on the possible withdrawal of some Russian troops from around Ukraine amid tight global supplies and recovering fuel demand.

Brent traded at $93.86 a barrel around 1000 GMT, up 62 cents, or 0.6%, having slid 3.3% overnight after Russia announced a partial pullback of its troops near Ukraine.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $92.64 a barrel, up 62 cents, or 0.6%, after the contract ended Tuesday's session down 3.6%.

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Both benchmarks hit their highest since September 2014 on Monday, with Brent touching $96.78 and WTI reaching $95.82.

The price of Brent jumped 50% in 2021, while WTI soared about 60%, as a global recovery in demand from the COVID-19 pandemic strained supply.

Moscow announced a partial pullback of troops from Ukraine's borders, but NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday the alliance had not seen any de-escalation, but rather that Russia was continuing its military build-up.

"The risk of a full scale invasion has receded a bit. But we are unlikely to move out of the current status quo," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB in Oslo.

Beyond Ukraine tensions, the oil market remains tight and prices could still be on course for a move towards $100 a barrel.

"The price action has been an incredibly bullish one-way-street higher since just before Christmas. You don't see this kind of price action unless the market is very tight," Schieldrop added.

Investors await weekly U.S. oil inventories data from the Energy Information Administration due at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT).

U.S. crude and distillates inventories may have fallen by 1.5 million to 1.6 million barrels last week, a Reuters poll showed. [EIA/S]

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a drop in crude, gasoline and distillate stocks last week, according to market sources on Tuesday. [API/S]

(Additioanl reporting by Chen Aizhu and Florence TanEditing by Clarence Fernandez and Mark Potter

(Reuters) -The dollar rose on Monday along with the yen and Swiss franc as investors rushed into safe-haven assets on fears that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine.

Russia could make such a move at any time and might create a surprise pretext for an attack, according to the United States, which reaffirmed on Sunday a pledge to defend "every inch" The dollar index rose 0.4% to 96.328, its highest since Feb. 1.

of NATO territory. Moscow denied any such plans and has accused the West of 

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Euro-dollar one-month implied volatility was at 7.6%, from below 6% at the end of January.

The rouble was 0.1% lower at 77.20 against the dollar, after tumbling to its lowest since January 28 on Friday as investors ditched Russian assets.

Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) analysts pointed out that “European dependency on Russian energy makes the cyclical economic performance of the euro zone particularly vulnerable in case of an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.”

The euro was down 0.3% at $1.1318, after hitting its lowest level since Feb. 3 at $1.1305.

The euro weakened on Friday when a rush into safe-haven assets overshadowed expectations for monetary policy tightening from the European Central Bank.

ECB president Christine Lagarde had also dampened some of the bullish euro sentiment by reiterating that any policy action will be gradual.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its January meeting minutes on Wednesday, but analysts said central bank action was unlikely to return to the spotlight until the risk of an escalation over Ukraine recedes.

A rush into safe-haven assets has propped up the Japanese yen since Friday, while the Bank of Japan successfully defended its key bond yield target on Monday, holding the line on its ultra-loose monetary policy.

The yen rose 0.3% to 115.16 against the dollar, and 0.5% against the euro.

“These two currencies (the U.S. dollar and the yen) – as well as the Swiss franc – should remain bid until, and if, we get indications that a diplomatic solution is in sight,” ING analysts said, adding that “markets are adopting a wait-and-see approach on geopolitics at the start of the new week.”

We “flag quite significant downside risks for exposed currencies - directly the rouble and indirectly all pro-cyclical currencies and especially the European ones - should tension escalate further,” ING said.

The Swiss franc rose 0.4% against the euro to 1.0452, its highest since Feb. 3.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was down 1% at around $42,116.

Analysis on Gold on 11/02/2022:

- In the US session last night after the US inflation-CPI data was released Gold ran in two directions when it fell to 1821, then increased to 1841, then fell back again, closing the day session with a candle.  declined at around 1826. With Gold closing the day as a bearish candle but still at a high price, I still prioritize the bullish option with this precious metal.

- Moving to the H4 time frame, we can see that the downward pressure is still quite strong around the 1835 price area so if we establish a buy position, this is a safe profit taking point.  The nearest support price zone for this precious metal Gold is 1818-1823. If in today's session Gold corrects to this zone, we can establish a buy position with the above target.

Dollar is Lower; Tight Range Ahead of Inflaton

 The U.S. dollar edged lower Wednesday, but remained in a tight range the day before the release of key inflation data which could confirm the start of the Federal Reserve’s policy tightening process. 

At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 95.580, after bouncing off a 2-1/2-week low of 95.136 reached Friday. 

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The speed and timing of when central banks across the world start to lift interest rates is the main factor driving the foreign exchange markets these days, and in particular the Federal Reserve given the importance of the U.S. economy to global growth.

The dollar received a boost at the end of last week with the release of a much stronger than expected jobs report, and Thursday’s consumer price index should cement expectations that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates next month.

The headline CPI is seen rising 0.5% on the month and 7.3% on the year in January, climbing to a four-decade high. Most in the market expected the Fed to lift interest rates by 25 basis points in March, a stronger print could offer support to those tipping a larger 50 basis point rise.

“We think that Friday’s payrolls numbers have helped build a floor under the dollar as markets should continue to cement their hawkish views on Fed tightening into the March meeting,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Elsewhere, EUR/USD edged lower to 1.1412, retreating from the highs seen last week after the European Central Bank policy meeting, as President Christine Lagarde tried Monday to rein in these expectations for aggressive action with growth in the Eurozone still fragile.

“We still think that the market pricing of more than 50bp of higher overnight rates, i.e. around two 25bp rate hikes, until the end of the year looks excessive,” said analysts at Nordea, in a note.

Additionally, GBP/USD edged lower to 1.3538, USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 115.45, after the pair briefly touched a one-month high, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD climbed 0.1% to 0.7148.

USD/PLN rose 0.1% to 3.9652 and EUR/PLN was flat at 4.5240, the day after Poland’s central bank lifted its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 2.75%, increasing interest rates for a fifth consecutive month to an almost nine-year high in an attempt to curb record inflation levels.

Later Wednesday, the Riksbank holds its latest policy-setting meeting, with the markets increasingly looking at still-dovish central banks given the recent shift in many of their peers.

“The Swedish economy has overall developed better than projected by the Riksbank,” said Nordea, and “the development is strong enough for the Riksbank to trim its balance sheet.”

“However, we do not expect inflation to remain high long enough for the Riksbank to consider a rate hike.”

EUR/SEK traded 0.1% lower at 10.4226 and USD/SEK also down 0.1% at 9.1358.

Today Gold Prediction on February 7, 2022:

 - In the last trading week, we can see the precious metal Gold was mainly sideways in the range from 1788-1815, closing the week session with a bullish candle around the 1807 price range. With this week's candle.  If it doesn't drop like the previous week, plus it closes with a bullish candle, in my opinion Gold will continue to move sideways and accumulate in a wide range.

 - Switching to the daily chart time frame, we can see that the past week has been a continuous period of retreating candles, showing that the buying power is quite good when the price corrects around the 1794-1800 zone, so in my opinion  My personal point if in today's trading session Gold has a correction near the upper price zone, that is a good price zone so we can establish a buy position with a safe target of 1818 and far.  than 1825.

NEWYORK SESSION Today

 * DXY CORRECTION is currently in progress.  Most likely after the NEWYORK SESSION today the USD is more likely to STRONG again.

 * VIX INDEX is currently moving to DOWN SIDE.  VIX 24.83 is in the PRICE LEVEL.  However, if you fall below the VIX 20 LEVEL, the DEMAND for HIGH BEATA CURRENCIES can go up.

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 * RBA MEETING was held today.  However, they did not make any changes to the INTEREST RATE.  They expect to end QE on February 10th.  They further stated that LABOR DATA and INFLATION DATA FOCUS.  They say that LABOR DATA will be much better in the future than they expected.  They expect a 2% growth in GDP in 2023.  They say inflation will rise to around 3% in the coming quarters.

We know about BTC

Ethereum was trading at $2,838.02 by 06:34 (11:34 GMT) on the Index on Friday, down 10.02% on the day. It was the largest one-day percentage loss since November 26, 2021.

The move downwards pushed Ethereum's market cap down to $340.50B, or 18.63% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. At its highest, Ethereum's market cap was $569.58B.

Ethereum had traded in a range of $2,812.19 to $3,032.69 in the previous twenty-four hours.

Over the past seven days, Ethereum has seen a drop in value, as it lost 11.17%. The volume of Ethereum traded in the twenty-four hours to time of writing was $19.90B or 18.90% of the total volume of all cryptocurrencies. It has traded in a range of $2,812.1914 to $3,388.2209 in the past 7 days.

At its current price, Ethereum is still down 41.65% from its all-time high of $4,864.06 set on November 10, 2021.

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Elsewhere in cryptocurrency trading

Bitcoin was last at $38,698.3 on the Investing.com Index, down 8.20% on the day.

Tether was trading at $1.0003 on the Investing.com Index, a gain of 0.00%.

Bitcoin's market cap was last at $735.81B or 40.26% of the total cryptocurrency market cap, while Tether's market cap totaled $78.29B or 4.28% of the total cryptocurrency market value.

Toadys NZDUSD Profitable Signals

I can short sell NZDUSD at the current price 0.6790 to 0.6765 and buy limit around 0.6765 (note that the main channel is still bullish)

BUY LIMIT NZDUSD AT 0.6765

 SL: 0.6725

 TP: 0.6785 0.6805

Get profitable NZDUSD  Trading Signals.

Dollar Edges Higher; Inflation Data To Cement Early Fed Hikes

 The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Monday, with traders expecting the release of key U.S. inflation data this week to boost the chances of early Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. 

At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher at 95.915.

USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 115.78, close to last week's five-year high of 116.35, EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.1332, GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3588, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD climbed 0.2% to 0.7195.

The greenback is recovering from Friday’s hit after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report for December, with attention now firmly switching towards the release of key December inflation data.

“The key for Fed policy now is not the labor market but inflation, and this week's December CPI report is expected to show further acceleration,” said Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

“Even after the employment report, the December Fed Funds contract showed increased wagers of four hikes this year. The probability of a fourth hike is now slightly over 50% compared with a 40% of a third hike after the November jobs report on December 3.”

The consumer price inflation data, on Wednesday, is expected to show headline CPI breaking above 7% year-on-year, approaching a four-decade high, while producer price inflation data the following day is also expected to show a surge higher.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and governor Lael Brainard will also testify before Senate committees this week regarding their nominations as the Fed chair and deputy chair respectively.

Their comments over the potential for the central bank to tighten monetary policy this year will be closely studied, and they are the highlight of a week in which there will be numerous Fed speakers.

Also helping the dollar Monday are the continued tensions between the U.S. and Russia, primarily, over the former Soviet state’s intentions towards Ukraine.

Talks between the two principals begin on Monday in Geneva before moving to Brussels and Vienna, but Russia said on Sunday it would not make concessions under U.S. pressure and warned that the negotiations might end early.

Elsewhere, USD/RON rose 0.3% to 4.3613 with Romania’s central bank expected to lift interest rates later Monday to try and tackle soaring inflation in line with its peers in the region. 

The central bank is seen increasing its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 2.25%, according to six of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The other five predicted a rise to 2%. Poland has already raised interest rates this year.

Analaysis on Gold

 At the end of the last trading week, precious metal Gold had another week of new growth when the price bounced up from 1784 to 1810, closing the week at around 1808. In my personal opinion, Gold is still  is being blocked by the resistance area of ​​1810-1815, so it is likely that in the beginning of the week's session there will be a slight correction, the condition for the increase to continue is to overcome this price area.

 - Switching to the H4 time frame Gold is forming a double top pattern. We can short-term at the current price range with safe profit-taking around 1800-1803.  Here we liquidate the order and wait for the next signal.

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XAUUSD Fundamental Overview

 XAUUSD H4

 This morning’s price opened at the 1790.00 level and made a price pullback, early this morning after yesterday’s market created a bearish candlestick on the H4 timeframe.  Yesterday’s rise came to a halt after a candlestick made a price decline at 1800.00

 Since the overall price movement is dominated by the downtrend, it is very likely that the current market reaction will act similarly.  This is seen again, on the rejection that takes place thus creating a rejection candle stick.  Here are the early signs of a decline through chart readings.

 So here is the price of support and resistance that is closest today is at the level:-

 R1: 1794.00

 R2: 1800.00

 R3: 1810.00

 ------------

 S1: 1788.00

 S2: 1782.00

 S3: 1772.00

 Trading is currently encouraged to look at a low timeframe to see the best trading potential to buy or sell.  All these trades need to be done using the amount of "initial capital" that is willing to risk.

 Finally, to see more active movement it is recommended to wait for trading opportunities in the evening.  Have a safe trade.

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Xauusd Overview: Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Yesterday's market price trend was dominated by a price pullback after a strong rise on December 15.  Also included is a decline from the resistance level of 1815.00 currently between the 61.8 and 50.00 levels on the Fibonacci Retracement.

1790.00 market price opened today after market movement made a pullback from the highest price.  Judging from the chart, the decline did not create momentum and stopped at 1790.00 where it was the last support area.

 So here is the price of support and resistance that is closest today is at the level:-

 R1: 1794.00

 R2: 1800.00

 R3: 1810.00

 ------------

 S1: 1788.00

 S2: 1782.00

 S3: 1772.00

 Trading is currently encouraged to look at a low timeframe to see the best trading potential to buy or sell.  All these trades need to be done using the amount of "initial capital" that is willing to risk.

Finally, to see more active movement it is recommended to wait for trading opportunities in the evening.  Have a safe trade.

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Comment on Gold on December 21, 2021

 In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold had a day of decline exactly as analyzed when the price fell from 1804 to 1788, closing the daily candle with a bearish candle around 1790. With Gold.  has shown a clear decline when touching the resistance area of ​​1814, in my opinion precious metal Gold will still be under downward pressure in the beginning of today's session.

Switching to the h4 time frame we can see the nearest resistance area pushing down the price of this precious metal around 1794-1798.  Here we can refer to a short signal with target 1785-1781.

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