EURJPY Price Analysis: Next on the upside emerges 147.00

• EURJPY adds to Monday’s uptick and surpasses 145.00.
• The recovery faces the next hurdle at the 147.00 zone.

EURJPY extends the auspicious start of the week and reclaims the area above the 145.00 barrier on Tuesday.

If the corrective bounce gathers extra steam, then the cross should face initial resistance at the so far November high at 147.11 (November 9). The surpass of this level could open the door to a more meaningful move to the 2022 peak at 148.40 (October 21).

In the longer run, while above the key 200-day SMA at 138.21, the constructive outlook is expected to remain unchanged.

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GBPUSD set to test the August 26 high near 1.19 – BBH

GBPUSD edges higher and is currently trading around the mid-1.1700s. Economists at BBH expect Cable to test the August 26 high near 1.19.

Monthly UK data dump began

“Cable broke above its September 13 high near 1.1740 and sets up a test of the August 26 high near 1.19.”

“Q3 growth came in at -0.2% QoQ vs. -0.5% expected and 0.2% in Q2, which translated into a YoY rate of 2.4% vs. 2.1% expected and 4.4% in Q2. This is just the beginning, as the BoE has warned that the recession had already started and would likely last two years. Of note, strong government spending, GFCF, and net exports all boosted the overall number and those components are likely to be large drags in Q4 and beyond.”

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USD Index Price Analysis: Losses expected to accelerate below 109.00

• DXY regains some poised following three daily pullbacks.
• The 9-month support line appears around 109.00.

DXY picks up some buying interest and briefly tests the area just beyond 110.00 the figure on Wednesday.

Further weakness in the dollar should not be ruled out despite the current bullish attempt. That said, the loss of the 9-month support near 109.00 carries the potential to magnify the decline and open the taps to extra retracement in the near term.

In the longer run, DXY is expected to maintain its constructive stance while above the 200-day SMA at 104.66.

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GBPUSD eases from multi-day high, still well bid below mid-1.1400s amid softer USD

• GBPUSD gains traction for the second successive day amid sustained USD selling.
• Hopes for less aggressive Fed rate hikes, the risk-on impulse weighs on the buck.
• The BoE's gloomy outlook might act as a headwind for the Sterling and cap gains.

The GBPUSD pair attracts some buying following an early dip to the 1.1290 area on Monday and is building on the previous session's goodish rebound from a two-week low. This marks the second successive day of a positive move and lifts spot prices to the 1.1475 region, or a three-day high during the mid-European session.

The US Dollar adds to the post-NFP heavy losses and drops to over a one-week low, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor pushing the GBPUSD pair higher. The mixed results from Friday's release of the US jobs report fueled speculations that the Federal Reserve might slow the pace of its policy tightening. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, continues to weigh on the safe-haven greenback.

That said, worries about the headwinds stemming from China's commitment to maintaining its economically disruptive zero-COVID policy might keep a lid on the optimism. Moreover, the markets are still pricing in the possibility of at least a 50 bps Fed rate hike move in December. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which should act as a tailwind for the buck and cap the upside for the GBPUSD pair.

Apart from this, the Bank of England's dovish rate hike last week warrants some caution for aggressive bullish traders. It is worth recalling that the UK central bank raised interest rates by 75 bps - its most forceful act to tame inflation since 1989 - but indicated a lower terminal peak than is currently priced into markets. Moreover, the BoE said that it expects a recession to last for all of 2023 and the first half of 2024.

This, in turn, suggests that any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Monday. Hence, the US bond yields, along with the broader market risk sentiment, will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and produce short-term trading opportunities around the GBPUSD pair.

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Stronger USD heading into year-end amid higher terminal rate expectations – MUFG

The US Dollar has continued to trade at stronger levels after the Fed dashed hopes again for a dovish policy pivot. Higher terminal rate expectations for Fed's hiking cycle are set to continue strengthening the greenback into year-end, economists at MUFG Bank report.

The Fed is shifting to plans for a slower but more extended hiking cycle

“The US rate market is now pricing in 62 bps of hikes at the December FOMC meeting as it weighs up whether the Fed will deliver one final 75 bps hike or step down to a 50 bps hike.” 

“The updated policy statement added as well that the Fed would take into account ‘the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments’.”

“The comments signal that the Fed is shifting to plans for a slower but more extended hiking cycle. The increase in market expectations for the Fed’s terminal policy rate support our outlook for an even stronger US dollar heading into year-end.” 

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GBP/USD could test 1.1300 on a dovish BoE – ING

GBP/USD continues to fluctuate at around 1.15. But a USD-positive FOMC and a dovish surprise by the Bank of England (BoE) could drag cable down to 1.13, economists at ING report.

EUR/GBP may climb back into the 0.8650-0.8700 area

“We continue to highlight the risk of a dovish surprise (50 bps hike) by the BoE tomorrow. The combination of a USD-positive FOMC and a GBP-negative BoE means cable could test 1.1300 by the end of the week.”

“EUR/GBP may climb back into the 0.8650-0.8700 area in the coming days.”

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EURUSD recovered ground towards the end of the NY session, despite hot US Core PCE

• The US Dollar got bolstered by US core PCE but weakened towards the close of Wall Street.
• GDP in France and Spain weakened, while inflation in Germany continued its uptrend, above 10%.
• EURUSD is neutral-to-downward biased, though slightly tilted to the upside, facing strong resistance at the 100-DMA.

The EURUSD finished Friday’s session almost flat at around 0.9960s with minuscule gains of 0.02%. US economic data bolstered the US Dollar due to further action warranted by the Fed; as its preferred gauge of inflation, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) jumped above August’s figures, a headwind for the EUR. Nevertheless, the Shared currency recovered some ground against the USD at the New York close. At the time of writing, the EURUSD is trading at 0.9966, slightly above its opening price.

The Federal Reserve’s gauge of inflation jumps the 5% threshold

Wall Street finished the day with solid gains. Even though the narrative of a possible Federal Reserve pivot circulates in the financial markets, US economic data, particularly inflation, could prove it wrong.

The US Department of Commerce revealed that the US core PCE expenditure for September expanded by 0.5% MoM, in line with estimates, while the year-over-year reading increased by 5.1%, below expectations but above the previous month’s 4.9%, on Friday. Another report revealed by the US Labor Department reported that the Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q3 increased by 1.2%, in line with Bloomberg’s estimates, and lower than the second quarter by 1.4%.

Data did not surprise traders, which turned to risk-perceived assets, speculating that a Fed pivot is imminent. Nevertheless, Friday’s data further justified the case for the Fed’s 75 bps interest-rate hike at the November meeting, while odds for another significant increase at the December meeting jumped from yesterday’s 34.1% to 44.9%.

The markets’ reaction to the headlines witnessed the EURUSD sliding from the daily high of 0.9989 to the daily low of around 0.9920s. However, as the North American session progressed, the EURUSD bounced off the lows and finished the session around the 0.9960s.

Consumer sentiment is unchanged, while US inflation expectations ease

Aside from US inflation data, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment October’s final reading came at 59.9, while inflation expectations barely moved. According to the survey, expectations for inflation in a one-year horizon rose to 5% from 5.1%, while for five years is estimated at 2.9%.

Of late, the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE for September edged lower from 6% to 4.3%. At the same time, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for Q4 is 3.1%.

Growth in France and Spain decelerated, and Germany’s inflation spiked

In the meantime, the European economic calendar reported Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and the EU’s Economic Sentiment, for France, Spain, Germany, and the Euro area, respectively. Growth in France and Spain for the Q3 came in line with estimations, though they flashed recession signs as both countries trail the second quarter readings.

At the same time, Germany reported inflation for October on its preliminary reading, increasing by 10.4% YoY, vs. estimates of 10.1%, and exceeding the previous month’s reading.

Therefore, estimations for further tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) are warranted,  as some ECB speakers, namely Muller, Vasle, and Villeroy, commented that interest rates are still low, not at a restrictive level. It’s worth pointing out that Vasle said he expects further rate increases, while Villeroy added that the ECB will decide on interest rate increases, meeting by meeting.

Given the abovementioned backdrop, the ECB and the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary conditions, which is positive for both the Euro and the US Dollar. Nevertheless, interest rate differentials and peak objectives amid the current high inflationary outlook would favor the US Dollar, so the EURUSD would likely be under selling pressure, keeping the exchange rates below parity.

EURUSD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Despite closing in an upbeat tone on Friday, the EURUSD remains neutral-to-downward biased, as depicted by the daily chart. Traders should note that the EUR had risen in four of the last five trading days and stayed above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nevertheless, on the only day that the EURUSD climbed toward the 100-day EMA, it was rejected, and the pair tumbled toward the October 27 daily low at 0.9957.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in bullish territory, which suggests that buyers are gathering momentum. However, to shift the bias to neutral, EURUSD buyers must conquer the 100-day EMA and 1.0100. And if the Euro clears 1.0200, a move towards the 200-EMA is on the cards.

On the flip side, key support levels lie at the 50-day EMA at 0.9887. Once cleared, the following support would be the 20-day EMA at 0.9838, ahead of 0.9800, followed by October’s monthly low of 0.9631.

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 EUR/USD Price Analysis: The next hurdle comes at 1.0050

• EUR/USD surpasses the parity in a sustainable fashion.
• There is scope for a visit to the 1.0050 level in the near term.

The weekly upside in EUR/USD remains healthy and manages to leave behind the key parity zone on Wednesday.

The surpass of this key region could spark a more serious recovery in the short-term horizon. Against that, the immediate barrier is expected at the weekly top at 1.0050 (September 20).

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view should remain unaltered while below the 200-day SMA at 1.0516.

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GBP will likely continue to be under pressure in the time to come – Nordea

In the UK, rates have continued their fall on a policy U-turn. Still, economists at Nordea see more pain ahead for the British pound.

The policy U-turn will lessen the GBP blow, but it is not enough

“The proposal of the UK government – lower taxes and higher spending financed by more debt – broke havoc in the gilt markets while sending the pound in a free fall. Since then UK markets have stabilised. But it takes a long time to build up trust which can be easily lost in a moment.”

“Investors are unlikely to have strong renewed confidence in UK’s governance no matter who take over the helm – trust takes years to build, seconds to break and forever to repair.”

“The poor economic fundamentals in the UK, sky-high inflation, financial imbalances and pension funds under strain will continue to weigh upon the pound.”

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EUR/USD Price Analysis: There is an interim hurdle at the 55-day SMA

EUR/USD trades without conviction around the 0.9830 region.

Next on the upside aligns the 55-day SMA at 0.9956.

EUR/USD gives away the initial advance to the 0.9870 region and deflates to the 0.9830 area on Tuesday

Further recovery in the pair looks probable in the very near term. Against that, the 55-day SMA at 0.9956 emerges as the next temporary hurdle prior to the more relevant October top at 0.9999 (October 4).

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view should remain unaltered while below the 200-day SMA at 1.0561.

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GBP/USD eases from daily high, still well bid around 1.1050 area as traders await FOMC minutes

mixed signals about BoE's bond-buying program prompt some short-covering around GBP/USD.

Subdued USD price action provides an additional lift, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction.

Investors now look to FOMC minutes for a fresh impetus ahead of the US CPI report on Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair stages a goodish bounce from the 1.0925 area, or a nearly two-week high set earlier this Wednesday and snaps a five-day losing streak. Spot prices, however, struggle to capitalize on the move and retreat around 40-50 pips from the vicinity of the 1.1100 round-figure mark.

The British pound attracts some buyers amid reports that the Bank might be willing to extend its purchases beyond Friday and prompts short-covering around the GBP/USD pair. This, along with subdued US dollar price action, offers additional support to the major. That said, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday that the central bank will stop buying UK government bonds on October 14. Apart from this, the dismal UK macro data contributes to capping the upside for the major.

The UK Office for National Statistics reported that the economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.3% in August, reinforcing the BoE's prediction for a recession this year. Furthermore, expectations that the Fed will continue to tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace to tame inflation acts as a tailwind for the greenback. This further holds back traders from placing bullish bets around the GBP/USD pair ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting minutes, due later during the US session.

The focus will then shift to the latest US consumer inflation figures on Thursday, which should play a key role in influencing the Fed's future rate-hike path. This, in turn, will drive the USD demand in the near term and provide a fresh directional impetus to the GBP/USD pair. In the meantime, elevated US Treasury bond yields might underpin the greenback and continue to keep a lid on any meaningful gains for the major amid concerns about the UK government's fiscal plans.

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GBP/USD: Break below 1.0905 to set up a test of 1.0540 – BBH

GBP/USD traded below 1.10 briefly before bouncing modestly. The pair could test the September 28 low near 1.0540 on failure to hold 1.0905, economists at BBH report.

Bank of England announced more measures to support the gilt market

“A break below 1.0905 would set up a test of the September 28 low near 1.0540.”

“The BoE will now buy inflation-linked debt in order to maintain orderly markets. It said it would buy up to GBP10 bln of gilts daily until its emergency program ends, double the GBP5 bln in place. Can the new measures prevent another gilt crash? Only time will tell but we note that whatever measures the BoE takes, it can only address the symptoms (disorderly markets) and not the underlying malady (irresponsible fiscal policy). Only the government can turn this thing around.”

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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Key resistance lies at the parity zone

EUR/USD wobbles around the 0.9800 zone ahead of NFP.

Bullish attempts face a tough barrier at the parity level.

EUR/USD gyrates around the 0.9800 region ahead of the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.

The resumption of the buying interest is expected to meet a solid hurdle at recent peaks around the parity zone. Ideally, EUR/USD should leave behind this key resistance zone in the near term to allow for the continuation of the rebound.

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view should remain unaltered while below the 200-day SMA at 1.0616.

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EUR/USD: Bullish push above is unsustainable – ING

EUR/USD is now pressing the 1.000 resistance. But in the view of economists at ING, a return to above-parity levels looks unsustainable.

EUR/USD to suffer a drop to the low 0.90 area into year-end

“We struggle to see much more behind the pair’s rally other than a position-squaring event and a broad dollar correction. Despite European assets rebounding quite sharply, it’s hard to point to any material change in the eurozone’s outlook that would warrant a significant return of market appetite for the euro just yet.”

“There is not enough bullish push to keep EUR/USD above parity on a sustainable basis, and we still forecast a drop to the low 0.90 area into year-end.”

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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bears now target 0.9500

EUR/USD drops for the seventh straight session and tests 0.9535.

Below the 2022 low at 0.9535 comes the 0.9500 region.

EUR/USD extends the leg lower to the proximity of 0.9530 earlier on Wednesday, an area last traded back in June 2002.

Odds for extra weakness in the European currency remain well on the table so far with the immediate target at the 2022 low at 0.9552 (September 26). A deeper drop could challenge the round level at 0.9500 ahead of the weekly low at 0.9411 (June 17 2002).

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view should remain unaltered while below the 200-day SMA at 1.0667.

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Brent Oil: Below $83.00 next supports align at $77.50 and $73.00 – SocGen

On the first day of the last week of September, crude oil extended last week’s losses. Economists at Société Générale expect Brent to head towards $77.50, then $73.00 on a drop under $83.00.

An initial rebound is on the cards

“Daily MACD is anchored within negative territory which denotes steady downward momentum.”

“An initial bounce is not ruled out, however, $93.50 should provide resistance.”

“Brent is close to downside projections of $83.00. Next potential supports are at the lower band of a descending channel at $77.50 and $73.00.”

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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Scope for further losses near term

EUR/USD bounces off fresh cycle lows near 0.9550.

Extra downside could revisit the 0.9411 level near term.

EUR/USD keeps the bearish note well in place and drops to new 2-decade lows near 0.9550, where some initial contention seems to have emerged.

Rising prospects for extra weakness in the European currency remain well on the table for the time being. That said, the loss of the 2022 low at 0.9552 (September 26) should leave the pair vulnerable to a challenge to the round level at 0.9500 prior to the weekly low at 0.9411 (June 17 2002).

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view is expected to prevail as long as it trades below the 200-day SMA at 1.0685.

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US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Bearish moves seen as buying opportunities

DXY climbs to fresh highs near 112.00 before losing momentum.

Further upside remains well on the cards for the dollar near term.

DXY corrects lower after two consecutive daily advances, including new 20-year highs just below the 112.00 mark earlier on Thursday.

The prospects for extra gains in the dollar should remain unchanged as long as the index trades above the 7-month support line near 106.80. That said, occasional bouts of weakness could be deemed as buying opportunities with the immediate target at the 2022 high at 111.81 (September 22).

In the longer run, DXY is expected to maintain its constructive stance while above the 200-day SMA at 101.95.

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NZD/USD struggles near its lowest level since April 2020 as another big Fed rate hike looms

• NZD/USD drops to its lowest level since April 2020 amid sustained USD buying interest.
• Retreating US bond yields, the risk-on mood caps the buck and limits losses for the pair.
• Investors now seem to move to the sidelines and await the crucial FOMC policy decision.

The NZD/USD pair recovers a few pips from its lowest level since April 2020 touched in the last hour and is currently placed in neutral territory, around the 0.5885 region. That said, any meaningful recovery still seems elusive as investors gear up for another supersized rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The stronger US CPI report released last week reaffirmed expectations that the USD central bank will continue to tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace. This remains supportive of a strong follow-through US dollar move up to a fresh 20-year peak, which, in turn, should continue to act as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair.

That said, a softer tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields and a generally positive risk tone keep a lid on any further gains for the safe-haven greenback. Apart from this, slightly oversold conditions on short-term charts offer some support to the risk-sensitive kiwi and help limit losses for the NZD/USD pair.

Apart from this, the intraday bounce could further be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the highly-anticipated FOMC policy decision, scheduled to be announced later during the US session. The Fed is widely expected to stick to its aggressive policy tightening path and hike interest rates by at least 75 bps.

Apart from this, the focus will be on the updated economic projections and the dot plot. Furthermore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference will be looked upon for clues about future rate hikes. This, in turn, will influence the USD and provide a fresh directional impetus to the NZD/USD pair.

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US Dollar Index to extend upward momentum on a break above 111 – SocGen

The US Dollar Index (DXY) moves sideways slightly above 109.50. Economists at Société Générale expect the index to enjoy further gains on a break past 111.

Short-term downtrend likely on a dip under 107.60

“If the index establishes itself above the high formed earlier this month at 111 – which is also a graphical level, the up move is expected to extend further towards next projections at 112.60/113.00.” 

“It is worth noting that the daily MACD has started posting negative divergence. Although this is not a reversal signal, it does point towards receding upward momentum.”

“Defending the 50-DMA at 107.60 would be essential for persistence in uptrend. Should a break materialize, a short-term downtrend is likely.”

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