EURUSD looks somewhat fragile again

EURUSD slides below parity. The Euro looks vulnerable again, in the view of economists at Scotiabank.

Euro stocks may support

“Ironically, the recent gains in spot have perhaps been getting some support from relatively better equity market returns in Europe versus North America which has seen better relative investor interest in FX unhedged European equity ETFs, data suggests. Investors want exposure to European stocks and the (cheap looking) EUR, in other words.” 

“Intraday patterns – very tentatively –  suggest some better EUR demand is emerging in the mid-0.99s but the failure to press higher after a strong advance from last week's low leaves the EUR looking somewhat fragile again.” 

“Support is 0.9890/00. Resistance is 1.0040/50.”

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USD Index Price Analysis: Losses expected to accelerate below 109.00

• DXY regains some poised following three daily pullbacks.
• The 9-month support line appears around 109.00.

DXY picks up some buying interest and briefly tests the area just beyond 110.00 the figure on Wednesday.

Further weakness in the dollar should not be ruled out despite the current bullish attempt. That said, the loss of the 9-month support near 109.00 carries the potential to magnify the decline and open the taps to extra retracement in the near term.

In the longer run, DXY is expected to maintain its constructive stance while above the 200-day SMA at 104.66.

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Stronger USD heading into year-end amid higher terminal rate expectations – MUFG

The US Dollar has continued to trade at stronger levels after the Fed dashed hopes again for a dovish policy pivot. Higher terminal rate expectations for Fed's hiking cycle are set to continue strengthening the greenback into year-end, economists at MUFG Bank report.

The Fed is shifting to plans for a slower but more extended hiking cycle

“The US rate market is now pricing in 62 bps of hikes at the December FOMC meeting as it weighs up whether the Fed will deliver one final 75 bps hike or step down to a 50 bps hike.” 

“The updated policy statement added as well that the Fed would take into account ‘the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments’.”

“The comments signal that the Fed is shifting to plans for a slower but more extended hiking cycle. The increase in market expectations for the Fed’s terminal policy rate support our outlook for an even stronger US dollar heading into year-end.” 

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GBP/USD: Break below 1.0905 to set up a test of 1.0540 – BBH

GBP/USD traded below 1.10 briefly before bouncing modestly. The pair could test the September 28 low near 1.0540 on failure to hold 1.0905, economists at BBH report.

Bank of England announced more measures to support the gilt market

“A break below 1.0905 would set up a test of the September 28 low near 1.0540.”

“The BoE will now buy inflation-linked debt in order to maintain orderly markets. It said it would buy up to GBP10 bln of gilts daily until its emergency program ends, double the GBP5 bln in place. Can the new measures prevent another gilt crash? Only time will tell but we note that whatever measures the BoE takes, it can only address the symptoms (disorderly markets) and not the underlying malady (irresponsible fiscal policy). Only the government can turn this thing around.”

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GBP/USD: Rebound remains capped below 1.1800 amid mixed UK PMIs, bear cross

GBP/USD whipsaws after UK services PMI improves but manufacturing PMI contracts.

The US dollar maintains the pullback amid cautious optimism, weaker Treasury yields.

Bear cross remains in play, as GBP bears eye a daily close below critical 1.1760 support line.

GBP/USD is struggling once again to extend the recovery while holding below the 1.1800 level, as bears remain unconvinced by the mixed UK Preliminary Business PMI surveys.

While activity in the services sector remained near July's 52.6, the manufacturing component tumbled to 46.0 in August from 52.1 in July, its lowest since May 2020.

Although a minor improvement in risk sentiment after an upside surprise delivered by the German Preliminary PMI eases fears over an imminent recession and lifts the European stocks. This helps the higher-yielding GBP to hold its ground against the US dollar.

The greenback pulls back from close to 19-year highs amid the retreat of the US Treasury yields across the curve. Investors also book profit on their USD longs after the recent relentless rise and ahead of a fresh batch of relevant US economic data. The US S&P Global Preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs will be reported in the NA session, followed by the New Home Sales release.

Despite the renewed upside, cable remains vulnerable, as the state of the UK economy remains dire amid surging inflation, the European gas crisis and political concerns.

As observed on cable’s daily chart, the price is clinging to the critical support line at 1.1760. A daily closing below the latter is required to cement the ongoing downtrend towards the falling trendline support at 1.1565.

Ahead of that, 1.1600 – the round figure will challenge the bullish commitments. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stalled its descent but sits just above the oversold territory, suggesting that the downside remains more compelling.

Further, the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) has cut the 50 DMA from above, representing a bear cross and adding credence to the bearish potential.

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EUR/USD holds on around 1.0500 ahead of German CPI, Sintra

EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.0500 on USD strength.

German Flash June CPI next on tap in the domestic docket.

Lagarde, Bailey, Powell will meet in Sintra later in the session.

The single currency remains under pressure and prompts EUR/USD to navigate the 1.0500 neighbourhood on Wednesday.

EUR/USD looks to data, ECB Forum

EUR/USD so far loses ground for the second session in a row on Wednesday on the back of the resumption of the risk aversion and the better sentiment surrounding the greenback.

In the meantime, the German money markets show the 10y Bund yields trimming part of the recent 2-day advance and retest the 1.60% region amidst the equally flat performance in the US peers.

In the domestic calendar, advanced inflation figures in Spain showed the CPI is seen rising 10.0% in the year to June. Further June data saw the final EMU Consumer Confidence at -23.6 and the Economic Sentiment at 104. Later in the session, markets’ attention will be on the release of the German preliminary inflation data ahead of the discussion panel between Powell, Bailey and Lagarde at the ECB Forum in Sintra.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD faces the re-emergence of the risk-off mood and the subsequent drop to the sub-1.0500 area midweek.

In the meantime, the single currency continues to closely follow news from the ECB Forum in Portugal as well as any developments surrounding the bank’s plans to design a de-fragmentation tool in light of the upcoming start of the hiking cycle.

However, EUR/USD is still far away from exiting the woods and it is expected to remain at the mercy of dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence, while higher German yields, persistent elevated inflation in the euro area and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the region are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro.

Key events in the euro area this week: ECB Forum on Central Banking, EMU Final Consumer Confidence, EMU Economic Sentiment, Germany Flash Inflation Rate, ECB Lagarde (Wednesday) – Germany Retail Sales, Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate. EMU Unemployment Rate, ECB Lagarde (Thursday) – EMU, Germany Final Manufacturing PMI, EMU Flash Inflation Rate (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Fragmentation risks. Kickstart of the ECB hiking cycle in July? Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro bloc. Impact of the war in Ukraine on the region’s growth prospects.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is retreating 0.05% at 1.0511 and faces immediate contention at 1.0358 (monthly low June 15) followed by 1.0348 (2022 low May 13) and finally 1.0300 (psychological level). On the upside, a break above 1.0615 (weekly high June 27) would target 1.0773 (monthly high June 9) en route to 1.0786 (monthly high May 30).

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EUR/USD consolidates in low 1.0700s as traders eye this week’s ECB meeting/US CPI

EUR/USD is trading in calm fashion in the low 1.0700s as traders eye this week’s ECB meeting and US CPI.

A hawkish ECB/easing of US price pressures combo could see the pair push above 1.0800.

EUR/USD is trading just north of flat in the 1.0725 area, in quiet trade ahead of what will ultimately be a busy week for the pair. The European Central Bank (ECB) announces policy in June and is expected to solidify expectations for interest rates going positive by the end of Q3, with traders set to scrutinise President Christine Lagarde’s tone on the prospect of further tightening as markets guage the outlook for 2023. Meanwhile, US Consumer Price Inflation data for May is set for release on Friday and could impact expectations for Fed policy.

But the first three days of the week are set to be much quieter in terms of central bank events and economic data, meaning EUR/USD is likely to take its cue more from things like risk sentiment/geopolitical developments etc. That would suggest that the pair may well remain stuck within recent low-1.0600s to upper-1.0700s ranges, with the 50-Day Moving Average likely to act as a magnet, as has more or less been the case over the past few days.

Some strategists think that the case for a push above 1.0800 and to its highest levels since mid-April is on the cards for EUR/USD later this week/next week, should the ECB come across as hawkish and US inflation show signs of easing. On the latter, growing momentum behind the peak US inflation narrative and, thus, peak Fed hawkishness, has been a major driver of the recent rebound from last month’s lows under 1.0400.

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 USD/JPY flirts with daily high, around 122.70-122.75 region post-US NFP report

• USD/JPY regained positive traction on Friday and snapped three successive days of the losing streak.
• The risk-on mood, the Fed-BoJ policy divergence weighed on the JPY and continued lending support.
• Elevated US bond yields, mostly upbeat US NFP data underpinned the USD and favours bullish traders.

The USD/JPY pair held on to its intraday gains, above the mid-122.00s through the early North American session and had a rather muted reaction to the US monthly jobs report.

The headline NFP print showed that the US economy added 431K jobs in March as against 490K expected, though the disappointment was offset by an upward revision of the previous month's reading to 750K. Additional details revealed that the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% from 3.8% in February and Average Hourly Earnings grew 0.4% from the 0.1% previous.

The data reaffirmed market bets that the Fed would hike interest rates by 100 bps over the next two meetings to combat stubbornly high inflation. This was reinforced by elevated US Treasury bond yields, which underpinned the US dollar. On the other hand, the Japanese yen was weighed down by the Bank of Japan's commitment to aggressively defend its 0.25% yield cap.

This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, dented demand for safe-haven JPY and acted as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. This marked the first day of a positive move in the previous four and assisted the pair to stall its pullback from levels above the 125.00 psychological mark, or the highest since August 2015 touched earlier this week.

With Friday's key data out of the way, the market focus shifts back to fresh developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga. The incoming headlines will influence the broader market risk sentiment. This, along with the US bond yields and the USD price dynamics, should provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair and allow traders to grab some short-term opportunities.

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