USD Index Price Analysis: Losses expected to accelerate below 109.00

• DXY regains some poised following three daily pullbacks.
• The 9-month support line appears around 109.00.

DXY picks up some buying interest and briefly tests the area just beyond 110.00 the figure on Wednesday.

Further weakness in the dollar should not be ruled out despite the current bullish attempt. That said, the loss of the 9-month support near 109.00 carries the potential to magnify the decline and open the taps to extra retracement in the near term.

In the longer run, DXY is expected to maintain its constructive stance while above the 200-day SMA at 104.66.

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Stronger USD heading into year-end amid higher terminal rate expectations – MUFG

The US Dollar has continued to trade at stronger levels after the Fed dashed hopes again for a dovish policy pivot. Higher terminal rate expectations for Fed's hiking cycle are set to continue strengthening the greenback into year-end, economists at MUFG Bank report.

The Fed is shifting to plans for a slower but more extended hiking cycle

“The US rate market is now pricing in 62 bps of hikes at the December FOMC meeting as it weighs up whether the Fed will deliver one final 75 bps hike or step down to a 50 bps hike.” 

“The updated policy statement added as well that the Fed would take into account ‘the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments’.”

“The comments signal that the Fed is shifting to plans for a slower but more extended hiking cycle. The increase in market expectations for the Fed’s terminal policy rate support our outlook for an even stronger US dollar heading into year-end.” 

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USD Index Price Analysis: Upside target remains at 114.00

• DXY comes under pressure soon after hitting daily highs near 111.60.
• Next on the upside still emerges the 114.00 region.

DXY reverses three consecutive daily advances and slips back below the 110.00 mark on turnaround Tuesday.

Despite the ongoing corrective downside, the near-term bullish stance in the dollar remains unchanged and with the immediate target at the 114.00 area ahead of the 2022 high at 114.78 (September 28).

The near-term upside bias is expected to hold while above the 8-month support line near 108.60. The proximity of the 100-day SMA also reinforces this area of contention.

In the longer run, DXY is expected to maintain its constructive stance while above the 200-day SMA at 104.22.

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US Dollar Index retreats from cycle highs near 110.00 ahead of Payrolls

The index comes under pressure and recedes from 110.00.

The risk complex regains some composure and trims recent losses.

All the attention remains on the August’s Nonfarm Payrolls due later.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), gives away part of the recent advance to fresh cycle highs in the 110.00 region (September 1).

US Dollar Index looks to key data

The index now comes under pressure and sheds some ground following Thursday’s advance to levels last seen back in June 2002 in the 110.00 neighbourhood.

The recent strong climb in the dollar has been underpinned by the equally intense move higher in US yields, particularly in the short end of the curve, which was at the same underpinned by persistent expectations of the continuation of the normalization process by the Federal Reserve.

On the latter, the probability of a 75 bps rate raise at the September event is now at nearly 75% as per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Still looking at the next Fed’s rate hike, Friday’s focus of attention is expected to remain on the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of August due later in the NA session. Consensus expects the economy to have added 300K jobs during last month and the jobless rate to stay unchanged at 3.5%.

Additional data will also see Factory Orders for the month of July.

What to look for around USD

Despite the ongoing knee-jerk, the greenback keeps the bullish outlook well in place in the area of 20-year highs near the 110.00 zone.

Bolstering the dollar’s strength appears the firm conviction of the Federal Reserve to keep hiking rates until inflation looks well under control regardless of a likely slowdown in the economic activity and some loss of momentum in the labour market. This view was recently reinforced by Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Extra volatility in the dollar, however, should not be ruled out considering the ongoing debate around the size of the September’s interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Looking at the more macro scenario, the greenback appears propped up by the Fed’s divergence vs. most of its G10 peers (especially the ECB) in combination with bouts of geopolitical effervescence and occasional re-emergence of risk aversion.

Key events in the US this week: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Factory Orders (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Hard/soft/softish? landing of the US economy. Prospects for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve vs. speculation over a recession in the next months. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China persistent trade conflict.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

Now, the index is retreating 0.18% at 109.43 and faces the next support at 107.58 (weekly low August 26) seconded by 106.69 (55-day SMA) and then 104.63 (monthly low August 10). On the upside, a breakout of 109.97 (2022 high September 1) would aim for 110.00 (round level) and finally 112.17 (high May 31 2002).

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Nasdaq futures jump 2% after Meta earnings beat

Nasdaq 100 futures jumped more than 2% on Thursday as Meta Platforms shares soared after a stronger-than-expected profit, taking some pressure off growth and technology stocks that have been battered recently.

The Facebook-parent rose 17.7% in early New York trading after the social-networking site also eked out user growth.

Other megcap stocks such as Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc rose between 1.7% and 3.4%.

The Nasdaq Composite index is on course to post losses of over 10% in April, as investors dumped high-growth stocks on fears that rising interest rates will threaten future earnings and after Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) posted a shocking subscriber loss.

Apple, the world's most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon are set to report earnings after markets close on Thursday.

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) Inc jumped 8.4% after the chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue above analyst expectations.

At 05:05 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 390 points, or 1.17%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 76.75 points, or 1.84%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 328.25 points, or 2.52%.

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Breaking: ECB leaves rates unchanged at -0.50% as expected, reiterates QE to end in Q3

The European Central Bank left its benchmark deposit rate unchanged at -0.50% on Thursday as unanimously expected by analysts. The central bank also reiterated its guidance that net asset purchases (Quantitative Easing or QE) should end in Q3. 

ECB Statement:

"Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is causing enormous suffering.

It is also affecting the economy, in Europe and beyond.

The conflict and the associated uncertainty are weighing heavily on the confidence of businesses and consumers.

Trade disruptions are leading to new shortages of materials and inputs.

Surging energy and commodity prices are reducing demand and holding back production.

How the economy develops will crucially depend on how the conflict evolves, on the impact of current sanctions and on possible further measures.

At the same time, economic activity is still being supported by the reopening of the economy after the crisis phase of the pandemic.

Inflation has increased significantly and will remain high over the coming months, mainly because of the sharp rise in energy costs.

Inflation pressures have intensified across many sectors.

At today’s meeting the Governing Council judged that the incoming data since its last meeting reinforce its expectation that net asset purchases under its asset purchase programme should be concluded in the third quarter.

Looking ahead, the ECB’s monetary policy will depend on the incoming data and the Governing Council’s evolving assessment of the outlook.

In the current conditions of high uncertainty, the Governing Council will maintain optionality, gradualism and flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy.

The Governing Council will take whatever action is needed to fulfil the ECB’s mandate to pursue price stability and to contribute to safeguarding financial stability.

Asset purchase programme (APP)

Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June.

The calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect the Governing Council’s evolving assessment of the outlook.

The Governing Council also intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively.

Any adjustments to the key ECB interest rates will take place some time after the end of the Governing Council’s net purchases under the APP and will be gradual.

The path for the key ECB interest rates will continue to be determined by the Governing Council’s forward guidance and by its strategic commitment to stabilise inflation at 2% over the medium term.

Accordingly, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term.

Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)

The Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP until at least the end of 2024.

In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

In the event of renewed market fragmentation related to the pandemic, PEPP reinvestments can be adjusted flexibly across time, asset classes and jurisdictions at any time.

This could include purchasing bonds issued by the Hellenic Republic over and above rollovers of redemptions in order to avoid an interruption of purchases in that jurisdiction, which could impair the transmission of monetary policy to the Greek economy while it is still recovering from the fallout from the pandemic.

Net purchases under the PEPP could also be resumed, if necessary, to counter negative shocks related to the pandemic.

Refinancing operations

The Governing Council will continue to monitor bank funding conditions and ensure that the maturing of operations under the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) does not hamper the smooth transmission of its monetary policy.

The Governing Council will also regularly assess how targeted lending operations are contributing to its monetary policy stance.

As announced, it expects the special conditions applicable under TLTRO III to end in June this year.

The Governing Council will also assess the appropriate calibration of its two-tier system for reserve remuneration so that the negative interest rate policy does not limit banks’ intermediation capacity in an environment of ample excess liquidity.

The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate, incorporating flexibility if warranted, to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term.

The pandemic has shown that, under stressed conditions, flexibility in the design and conduct of asset purchases has helped to counter the impaired transmission of monetary policy and made the Governing Council’s efforts to achieve its goal more effective.

Within the Governing Council’s mandate, under stressed conditions, flexibility will remain an element of monetary policy whenever threats to monetary policy transmission jeopardise the attainment of price stability.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today."

Market Reaction

The euro saw a substantial drop in reaction to the latest ECB policy announcement. EUR/USD has dipped to around the 1.0875 area from around 1.0915 prior to the release and now trades with on the day losses of around 0.1% versus earlier gains of around 0.3%.  

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