Crude Oil Futures: Rising odds for further consolidation

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders extended the uptrend in open interest for the 4^th session in a row on Thursday, this time by around 12.4K contracts. Volume followed suit and rose for the thirds straight session, now by around 63.1K contracts.

WTI remains focused on $90.00 and above

Prices of the WTI extended the weekly recovery on Thursday. The small uptick was in tandem with increasing open interest and volume and opens the door to some consolidation in the very near term and with the immediate target at the $90.00 mark per barrel and beyond.

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Crude Oil Futures: Extra weakness not ruled out

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders reduced their open interest positions for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, this time by around 5.5K contracts. Volume followed suit and reversed two straight builds and shrank by around 184.3K contracts.

WTI could retest monthly lows near $76.00

Prices of the barrel of WTI charted and inconclusive session on Thursday. The move was on the back of declining open interest and volume and exposes some lack of direction in the very near term, while the resumption of the previous downtrend should not be ruled out. Against that, another visit to the September low at $76.28 (September 26) remains in the pipeline.

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Brent Oil: Below $83.00 next supports align at $77.50 and $73.00 – SocGen

On the first day of the last week of September, crude oil extended last week’s losses. Economists at Société Générale expect Brent to head towards $77.50, then $73.00 on a drop under $83.00.

An initial rebound is on the cards

“Daily MACD is anchored within negative territory which denotes steady downward momentum.”

“An initial bounce is not ruled out, however, $93.50 should provide resistance.”

“Brent is close to downside projections of $83.00. Next potential supports are at the lower band of a descending channel at $77.50 and $73.00.”

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Malaysia: BNM hikes rates again – UOB

 

Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting at UOB Group review the latest interest rate decision by the BNM.

Key Takeaways

“As widely expected, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) today (8 Sep) by 25bps to 2.50%. This marks the third back-to-back rate hike since BNM started the hiking cycle in May this year as the economy recovered at a stronger pace. To date, BNM has hiked 75bps, which partly reversed the 125bps of rate cuts since the start of the pandemic in Jan 2020.”

“In the latest monetary policy statement (MPS), BNM continues to expect the domestic economy to expand, supported by private sector spending amid the transition to endemicity, positive labour market conditions, resumption of tourism activities and investments. However, BNM cautioned that external demand is expected to moderate amid softer global growth. BNM expects inflation to peak in 3Q22 before moderating thereafter amid abating base effects and easing global commodity prices.”

“BNM highlighted that there is no ‘pre-set course’ and the monetary policy committee (MPC) will continue to assess developments and their impact on domestic inflation and growth. BNM also reiterated that any adjustments will be done in a ‘measured and gradual’ manner. We think BNM may have signalled a temporary pause for rate hikes pending forward-looking growth and inflation dynamics. As such, we maintain our OPR target at 2.50% by year-end, and 3.00% by mid-2023. The next and final monetary policy meeting for the year is on 2-3 Nov.”

Crude Oil Edges Higher; China Stimulus Boosts Sentiment

Oil prices edged higher Thursday, on course for strong weekly gains as China attempted to boost demand while global supply remained very tight.

By 08:40 ET (12:40 GMT), U.S. crude futures traded 0.1% higher at $94.94 a barrel, while the Brent contract rose 0.4% to $101.67. Both contracts are on course for weekly gains of around 5%.

U.S. Gasoline RBOB Futures were up 0.2% at $2.8053 a gallon.

The Chinese government announced plans earlier Thursday to top up its economic stimulus to 1 trillion yuan (around $150 billion).

This attempt, to try and restore an economy ravaged by drought and COVID-19 restrictions, has been well-received by the oil market, given China is the largest oil importer in the world.

This news has added positive momentum to a market that had already been boosted by the release of data by the Energy Information Administration showing that U.S. crude inventories fell by much more than expected last week.

The volume of crude and its products exported from the U.S. last week was the highest in a series going back to February 1991.

"EIA numbers released yesterday were fairly constructive," said analysts at ING, in a note. "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.28MMbbls over the last week. However, when taking into account releases from the strategic petroleum reserve, total U.S. crude oil inventories declined by a significant 11.37MMbbls."

Additionally, earlier the week, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman flagged the possibility that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, could cut production, boosting the market.

He added that futures prices, which have fallen over 25% from their peaks earlier in the summer, are failing to reflect the tightness of the physical market.

Elsewhere, investors are also watching for progress on the revival of a nuclear deal with Iran, which could lead to the resumption of crude exports into the global market from the OPEC producer.

"The U.S. finally replied to the EU’s proposal for reviving the deal," ING added. "And while clearly, negotiations appear to be moving in the right direction, the US has said that "we’re not there yet" and that there are still "gaps" that remain."

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Russia suspends oil exports via southern leg of Druzhba pipeline – Reuters

Citing two sources familiar with the operation, Reuters reported on Tuesday that Russia suspended oil exports via the southern leg of the Druzhba pipeline from early August due to issues relating to transit fees.

"According to the sources, the payment from Russia's pipeline monopoly Transneft to Ukraine's pipeline operator Ukrtransnafta did not go through," Reuters explained.

Market reaction

Crude oil prices rose sharply with the initial reaction to this development. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading at $91.85, where it was up 1.55% on a daily basis.

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Oil up over $2/bbl as hopes fade for OPEC+ supply boost

Oil prices settled up more than $2 a barrel on Friday as attention turned to next week's OPEC+ meeting and dimming expectations that the producer group will imminently boost supply.

Brent crude futures contract for September, which expire on Friday, jumped more than $3 a barrel during the session and then pared gains to settle at $110.01 a barrel, up $2.87, or 2.7%. The more active October contract was up $2.14, or 2.1%, at $103.97.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $98.62 a barrel, rising $2.20, or 2.3%, after jumping more than $5 a barrel.

Both contracts logged their second monthly losses, with Brent down about 4% for July and WTI nearly 7% lower.

Oil pared some gains after the release of data from oil services firm Baker Hughes, which showed that U.S. drillers added crude rigs for a record 23 months in a row, indicating more supply ahead. [RIG/U]

In July, the oil rig count rose 11, increasing for a record 23rd month in a row, while the gas count was unchanged after rising for 10 straight months, the Baker Hughes data showed.

Stronger stock markets supported oil, as did a weaker dollar, which makes oil cheaper for buyers with other currencies.

"These days, there has been a lot of macro influences on the oil market with the stock market making a nice rebound and a similar fall in the dollar feeding into (today's prices)," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC.

Global equities, which often move in tandem with oil prices, were up on the hope that disappointing growth figures would encourage the U.S. Federal Reserve to ease up on monetary tightening. [MKTS/GLOB]

A Reuters survey forecast Brent would average $105.75 a barrel this year with U.S. crude averaging $101.28. [OILPOLL]

Front-month Brent futures are selling at a rising premium to later-loading months, a market structure known as backwardation, indicating tight current supply.

"The oil market in Europe is considerably tighter than in the U.S., which is also reflected in the sharply falling Brent forward curve," said Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG) analyst Carsten Fritsch.

Investors will next watch the Aug. 3 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+.

OPEC+ sources said the group will consider keeping oil output unchanged for September with two saying a modest increase would be discussed.

A decision not to raise output would disappoint the United States after President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia this month hoping for a deal to open the taps.

Analysts said it would be difficult for OPEC+ to boost supply, given that many producers are already struggling to meet production quotas.

OPEC+ compliance with oil output cut pledges reached 320% in June, Russian Interfax news agency reported, citing a source familiar with the data. It said the group's combined oil underproduction was 2.84 million barrels per day last month.

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 Crude Oil Futures: Further downside looks unlikely

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets showed investors trimmed their open interest positions by around 3.4K contracts at the beginning of the week, adding to the previous daily drop. Volume, instead, increased for the fourth session in a row, now by around 160.2K contracts.

WTI: Next support comes at $100.30

Prices of the barrel of WTI dropped sharply on Monday against the backdrop of shrinking open interest. That said, extra losses appear out of favour in the very near term, while prices of the commodity remain well supported by the so far May low near the $100.00 mark per barrel.

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Crude Oil Futures: Rising bets for further upside

Open interest in crude oil futures markets went up for the third consecutive session on Thursday, now by nearly 19K contracts according to advance prints from CME Group. Volume followed suit and rose by 157.3K contracts, fading the previous day’s retracement.

WTI now targets April tops around $109.00

Prices of the WTI extended the weekly recovery on Thursday. The move was accompanied by rising open interest and volume, paving the way for the continuation of this bounce to, initially, the April high just above the $109.00 mark per barrel in the very near term.

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📕 Comment on Gold on April 25, 2022:

 📕 Comment on Gold on April 25, 2022:

 - Ending the last trading week, precious metal Gold closed with a bearish candle with quite strong force around 1931 and in the early morning of today Gold continued to decline to around 1921, the price turned around.  exactly the same as the starting point of the rally 2 weeks ago.

 - Gold is currently in the support zone 1917-1920.  It is likely that Gold will recover slightly here after a fairly strong drop last week and in my opinion it is likely that Gold will recover to around the 1940 level here we need to wait and see a sell signal.  .  If Gold cannot recover and break through the 1917-1920 threshold, the possibility of this precious metal will slide down to 1900-1890.

Oil rebounds as supply concerns dominate

Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday as a drop in U.S. oil inventories and concerns over tighter supplies from Russia and Libya drove a recovery from the previous session's sharp losses.

Brent crude futures rose $1.46, or 1.4%, to $108.71 a barrel by 1139 GMT.

The front-month WTI crude futures contract, which expires on Wednesday, rose $1.50, or 1.5%, to $104.06 while the second-month contract gained $1.52 to $103.57.

The two main benchmarks had fallen by 5.2% in volatile trading on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast global growth forecast by nearly a full percentage point, citing the economic impact of Russia's war in Ukraine and warning that inflation had become a "clear and present danger" for many countries.

"Weakening growth and mounting inflationary pressure can only mean one thing: the spectre of stagflation is hanging over the global economy," said P.M analyst Stephen Greenock.

Global oil prices have been pulled higher by a tighter supply outlook after sanctions against Russia - the world's second-largest oil exporter and a key European supplier - over its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation".

However, a softer global economic outlook and continuing COVID lockdowns in China have hurt demand in the world's top crude importer and are weighing on prices.

On the supply side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, produced 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) below its production target in March as Russian output began to decline after sanctions imposed by the West, a report from the producer alliance showed.

Various outages added to concerns about supply. OPEC member Libya has been forced to shut in 550,000 bpd of output because of a wave of blockades on major oilfields and export terminals, the country's National Oil Corporation said on Wednesday. [nL5N2WI2QZ]

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium's (CP) Black Sea terminal could return to full capacity as early as Wednesday, Kazak Energy Minister Bloat Akchulakov said. The CP pipeline and terminal, which ship about 80% of Kazak crude exports, have been working at half usual capacity after a storm damaged two of its three mooring points last month.

In the United States, crude stocks fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. [EA/IS]

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, will release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.

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