US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Further losses not ruled out

 

• DXY accelerates the corrective decline to the 105.30 zone.
• Immediate to the downside appears the 55-day SMA at 104.75.

DXY navigates the fourth consecutive session with losses and revisits the 105.30 region at the beginning of the week.

The index broke below the multi-session pre-FOMC consolidative theme and in doing so it has paved the way for extra decline in the short-term horizon. That said, the immediate support now turns up at the interim 55-day SMA at 104.75 ahead of the 5-month support line around 103.85.

The near-term outlook for DXY remains constructive while above this 5-month support line near 104.00.

In addition, the broader bullish view remains in place while above the 200-day SMA at 99.49.

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD closes in on $2,000 amid Easter Monday thin trading

 

• Gold Price remains poised to recapture $2,000 amid a flight to safety.
• Elevated inflation, recession risks and the Russia-Ukraine war boost safe-haven appeal.
• The speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will keep investors busy this week.

Easter Monday-induced thin market conditions are offering some extra zest to bulls, as Gold Price heads closer towards the $2,000 round level. The light trading seems to be exaggerating the moves in XAUUSD, as a 0.50% drop in the US stock futures reflects a risk-off market profile. Persistent Russian military actions in the Western Ukrainian city of Lviv and the Southern port city of Mariupol suggest that a peace agreement is nowhere in sight, fuelling anxiety. Meanwhile, the Ukraine crisis-led surging global inflation is prompting investors to seek refuge in the inflation-hedge Gold Price. Buyers ignore the notable strength in the US dollar alongside the Treasury yields, as a flight to safety makes the traditional store of value, gold, more appealing.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD needs to crack this level to take on the $2,000 mark

Moreover, China’s covid lockdowns and a potential European Union (EU) embargo on Russian gas could likely intensify inflation and growth concerns. This was seen as another factor that boosted the metal's appeal as a hedge against rising costs. Investors will now focus on the speech from the St. Louis Fed President and FOMC member James Bullard, which will provide insights into the likely monetary policy action by the Fed. However, the mega event will be the speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell due later this week.

“We are of the view that the Fed is broadly in-sync with the move toward the vicinity of neutral by the end of 2022, with Governor Brainard supporting that view recently. Chair Powell's remarks in an IMF panel on the global economy will get the focus of the attention,” analysts at TD Securities explained. “While the Fed is signalling its intent to reach neutrality by year-end, and to start an aggressive QT regime, outflows from gold markets have been scarce as participants are happy to retain some optionality against the Fed's stated plan amid growth concerns,” the analysts added.

Gold Technical Analysis

The bulls are in control and taking on fresh highs. On a daily scale, XAU/USD has tested the breakout of its previous critical level at March 24 high $1,966.18 multiple times. The 20- and 50-Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are scaling higher, adding to the upside filters. The momentum oscillator Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has overstepped 60.00, which indicates a firmer bullish momentum going forward.

Euro dips amid caution over Ukraine, Norwegian crown plunges

The euro edged lower on Thursday on caution about developments in Ukraine and limited progress in peace talks, while the Norwegian crown fell sharply after the central bank decided to buy foreign currency. Russian forces prepared for new attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, while no quick resolution is expected from peace talks that will resume on Friday. The euro dropped 0.3% to $1.1118 after hitting its highest since March 1 at $1.1184. "The single currency is always around $1.11, with investors still cautious about future developments in Ukraine," Roberto Mialich, forex analyst at Unicredit (MI:CRDI), said. "The market wants to believe in a peace deal or at least in a truce in Ukraine. This is why rouble remains not far from its pre-war levels against the dollar, and the greenback is struggling to appreciate," he added.The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six peers, rose 0.2% to 98.074.

The rouble was down 3% versus the greenback at 78.55

Investors also focused on the next European Central Bank's moves after robust inflation data. ECB chief economist Philip Lane said on Thursday euro zone inflation was increasingly likely to stabilise around 2% but the ECB should be ready to change course if the outlook deteriorates due to Russia's war in Ukraine. [nL5N2VY2NL]

“Until the risk of an energy crisis and considerable economic effects resulting from the Ukraine war have been banished, the ECB is likely to hesitate to make a clear commitment,” Antje Praefcke, forex analyst at Commerzbank (DE:CBKG), said in a note to clients.

“And as a result, it will also be a while before the euro can appreciate on a sustainable basis,” she added.

Money markets are currently pricing in an around 85% chance of 20 basis points (bps) of ECB rate hikes by July 2022 and 60 bps by year-end. [IRPR]

The Norwegian crown plunged after oil prices dived and the central bank said it would buy foreign currency for its sovereign wealth fund in April.

Norges Bank plans to exchange 2 billion crowns ($231.9 million) per day into foreign currency, which will in turn be invested abroad by the wealth fund, already the world's largest with assets of $1.3 trillion.

The Norwegian currency fell 1.6% against the euro hitting its lowest level since March 18 of 9.7111, and 1.9% versus the dollar at 8.7255.

However, it is not far from its highest since October 2018 against the euro at 9.4424 and its highest since November 2021 versus the dollar at 8.5675, which it hit last week on the back of a rally in Brent crude oil futures.

"The central bank move might curb the currency, but we think the Norwegian crown still has room for further appreciation, thanks to expectations of more rises in energy prices," Unicredit's Mialich argued.

Other commodity currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar, dropped by around 0.5%.

The Swedish crown was slightly lower against the euro, just off its highest since January of 10.3059 hit on Wednesday as the central bank said it would have to tighten monetary policy this year.

Bitcoin was down 0.2% at $47,191, while Ether, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, was up 0.45% at $3,402. 

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 Dow Jones Futures Fall 80 Pts; ADP, GDP Data and Lululemon Results in Focus

U.S. stocks are seen opening lower Wednesday, handing back some of the recent gains as investors await key economic reports on jobs and economic output while monitoring developments in Ukraine.

At 7 AM ET (1100 GMT), the Dow Futures contract was down 80 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 Futures traded 13 points, or 0.3%, lower and Nasdaq 100 Futures dropped 70 points, or 0.5%.

The main Wall Street indices closed higher Tuesday, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average ending 338 points, or 1% higher and the broad-based S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, both registering their fourth straight day of gains, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.8%.

Helping the tone Tuesday were signs of progress in the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey. However, optimism has quickly turned into skepticism, with a Pentagon spokesman saying Ukraine’s capital Kyiv remains under threat even after Russia promised to scale back military operations there. 

“Nobody should be fooling ourselves by the Kremlin’s now-recent claim that it will suddenly just reduce military attacks near Kyiv or any reports that it is going to withdraw all its forces,” John Kirby said. It’s “a repositioning, not a real withdrawal” from positions around the Ukrainian capital.

Also catching the interest of investors are a series of important data releases given the Federal Reserve is in the process of weighing up how aggressively to hike interest rates at its May meeting.

Expectations of sharp interest rate increases saw the 2-year Treasury yield briefly climb above the 10-year for the first time since 2019, a move that is often seen as a warning of an upcoming recession.

March's ADP nonfarm employment change data is set to be released at 8:15 AM ET (1215 GMT), with consensus forecasts looking for companies to have added 450,000 jobs, while GDP for the fourth quarter, at 8:30 AM ET, is set to show a 7.1% reading from the month before, well above the previous 2.3% release.

In the corporate sector, Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) traded higher premarket after the company gave a robust forecast for the ongoing quarter, suggesting demand from data centers remains strong.

Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) will also be in the spotlight after the athletic apparel maker beat quarterly earnings estimates and announced a $1 billion stock buyback program. 

Oil prices rose Wednesday, rebounding after a two-day retreat following a fresh reminder of the tight nature of the market as data showed U.S. crude stocks fell sharply last week.

Data from the industry body, the American Petroleum Institute, showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels in the week ended March 25. The official data from the Energy Information Administration is due later in the session.

The oil market had dropped sharply this week on progress in the Ukraine/Russia peace talks as well as demand worries over fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in China, the world’s largest crude importer. 

By 7 AM ET, U.S. crude futures traded 2.5% higher at $106.84 a barrel, while the Brent contract rose 2.4% to $110.29. 

Additionally, gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,919.20/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.4% higher at 1.1129.

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