Thursday 8 July 2021

Monthly Overview on Oil

 Monthly change: XBRUSD +9.62%


Oil rose over 9% and exceeded 75.64 USD in June. XBRUSD recorded a seven-month gain in the past eight months. A firmer U.S.dollar makes XBRUSD more expensive in other currencies, potentially weighing on demand. However, neither the greenback nor the third COVID wave threat could hold oil from a surprise rally.


OPEC+ meeting took place at the beginning of June. The organisation noted the ongoing strength of market fundamentals as the economic recovery in most parts of the world continued. Since then, the oil headed for monthly gains, and OPEC+ called the market undersupplied. The next meeting will take place in July. The group will discuss extending its deal on cutting oil supply beyond April 2022.


Last October, eight months ago, Reuters questioned analysts on their oil price forecasts. None of the present economists predicted an extended rally or a doubling in oil prices within that period. However, both events happened. This month's projections were more accurate in predicting a further rally limited by OPEC decisions and the potential U.S. and Iran deal.

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