Silver Price Analysis: XAGUSD holds steady above mid-$21.00s, around 200 DMA pivotal point

• Silver reverses an intraday dip to the $21.30 area, though lacks follow-through buying.
• Repeated failures to capitalize on the move beyond 200 DMA warrants caution for bulls.
• A convincing break below the $21.00 mark will shift the bias in favour of bearish traders.

Silver attracts some dip-buying near the $21.30 region on Monday and hits a fresh daily peak during the first half of the European session. The white metal is currently placed around the $21.65-$21.70 area, though remains below a five-month high touched on Friday.

Looking at the broader picture, the XAGUSD, so far, has been struggling to capitalize on its positive move beyond the very important 200-day SMA. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move.

From current levels, the multi-month high, around the $22.05 region, could act as an immediate hurdle. The next relevant resistance is pegged near the $22.45-$22.50 supply zone, which if cleared will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and pave the way for additional gains.

The XAGUSD might then accelerate the momentum towards the $23.00 mark and eventually climb to the May swing high, around the $23.25-$23.30 area. Given that RSI on the daily chart is on the verge of breaking into the overbought zone, the latter should act as a tough nut to crack for bulls.

On the flip side, the daily low, around the $21.35 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $21.00 mark, which should now act as a pivotal point for short-term traders.

A convincing break below could trigger some technical selling and drag the XAGUSD to the $20.40 support zone. Failure to defend the said support levels might negate the near-term positive outlook and shift the bias in favour of bearish traders.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears target $1,720 as US dollar keeps reins

Gold price extends its losing streak into the sixth straight day on Monday.

US dollar resumes its rally as risk-aversion gathers steam amid surging energy costs.

XAU/USD needs to crack $1,730 to extend the sell-off towards $1,720 and $1,714.  

Gold price remains under intense selling pressure at the start of the week, extending the previous week’s bearish momentum into the sixth straight day. The relentless demand for the safe-haven US dollar could be linked as the main underlying factor behind the latest sell-off in the bright metal. Investors witness flight to safety amid hawkish Fed expectations and surging energy costs in Europe and Asia after Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline announced its closure due to maintenance end of this month. Global central banks’ fight to tame inflation is likely to prolong amid rising food and energy prices, which dents risk appetite while weighing negatively on the non-interest bearing yellow metal. Gold traders shrug off the minor pullback in the US Treasury yields, as the dollar will likely remain the preferred safety bet heading into the much-awaited Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled later this week.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price is eyeing a fresh downswing towards the Bollinger Band one-day Lower at $1,720 should bears yield a sustained break below the $1,730 barrier. That level is the intersection of the pivot point one-day S3 and pivot point one-week S1.

The next critical support area is located around $1,714, the Fibonacci 232.6% one-month.

Alternatively, the metal could rebound towards the pivot point one-day S2 at $1,737 should bears face exhaustion.

Further up, the pivot point one-day S1 at $1,743 will come into the picture. Bulls will then look to recapture the previous day’s low of $1,746.

The last line of defense for XAU sellers is envisioned at the confluence of the SMA200 four-hour and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day around $1,750.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to struggle on a peak in US inflation – ANZ

The challenges for the gold market are still in place. A peak in US inflation suggests a downside risk to the gold price. Still, increasing recessionary pressure and geopolitical risks could protect the downside, economists at ANZ Bank report.

Geopolitical and economic growth risks could protect the downside

“In 1980 when inflation peaked at 14.7%, gold prices started retreating from a high of $631/oz. Something similar happened in 2011, when inflation hit a high of 3.9% in September, triggering a fall from $1,900. With inflation peaking at 9% in June, we could see a similar fall in XAU/USD. The winding down of the Fed’s balance sheet also does not bode well.”

“Rising geopolitical tensions and economic risks could lend some support. The Russia-Ukraine war and China-US relations are issues that could trigger haven buying.”

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 Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD path of least resistance appears down

Gold price gathers strength to retest 11-month troughs below $1,700.

US dollar stalls correction as risk sentiment turns cautious ahead ECB, BOJ.

XAUUSD faces a wall of resistance despite falling Treasury yields.

Gold price continues to mire in yearly troughs so far this week, lacking a clear directional bias amid repricing of the Fed rate hike expectations. Investors also refrain from placing any aggressive bets on the bright metal ahead of the ECB and BOJ monetary policy announcements. The BOJ is widely expected to stick to its ultra-loose monetary policy while the ECB may surprise markets with a 50 bps rate hike. More hawkish than expected ECB could weigh negatively on the non-interest-bearing gold price. Meanwhile, the lack of first-tier US macro data combined with the Fed’s ‘blackout’ period leaves the metal traders in search of a significant catalyst. Meanwhile, the XAUUSD price will remain at the mercy of risk trends, with the US earnings season underway.

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the downside appears more compelling for Gold price, as it faces a wall of resistance should any recovery momentum pick up steam.

A dense cluster of healthy resistance levels is stacked up around $1,711, where the SMA10 four-hour, Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and Bollinger Band four-hour Middle coincide.

The next hurdle is seen at the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1,714, above which bulls will need vigor to take out the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and 38.2% one-week at $1,716.

The previous day’s high of $1,719 will be the level to beat for XAU bulls.

Alternatively, strong support awaits at $1,704, which is the convergence of the pivot point one-day S1 and pivot point one-month S3.

The next relevant downside target is aligned at the previous week’s low of $1,698.

Further south, the pivot point one-day S3 at $1,693 will come to the rescue of gold buyers.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD bears eye $1,820 and $1,816 as next targets

Gold Price rebound lacks follow-through bias, as Treasury yields firm up.

USD stays sluggish amid a better mood, ahead of NATO, ECB Forum.

Oil price surge keeps the demand for XAUUSD underpinned.

Optimism prevails, pointing to a turnaround Tuesday for the financial markets, as the previous week’s upbeat global momentum returns and caps the broad US dollar recovery. Investors, however, remain wary ahead of the key NATO Summit and a policy panel of the heads of the Fed, BOE and ECB due later this week. The sluggish price action in the dollar is helping Gold Price recoup a part of Monday’s sharp decline. The upside in the yellow metal lacks traction, however, as the US Treasury yields resume their gradual recovery mode amid lingering recession fears and an aggressive Fed rate-hike track. Buyers also remain cautious, as a slew of key US economic data are due for release later this week, which may prompt markets to re-price the hawkish Fed expectations, in turn impacting gold valuations.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that Gold Price is approaching the strong support around $1,820, where the previous day’s low and the lower band of the four hour Bollinger Band merge.

Selling interest may pick up steam below the latter, exposing the convergence of the previous week’s low, monthly Fibonacci 23.6% retracement and daily S1 pivot point merge at $1,816.

The line in the sand for gold optimists is seen at the weekly S1 pivot point at $1,813.

On the flip side, bulls need to find a strong foothold above the $1,829 barrier, which is the confluence of the 5-day SMA, and the daily and weekly Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level.

The next stop for bulls is aligned at the 10-day SMA at $1,832, above which the daily Fibonacci 61.8% level at $1,835 will come to sellers’ rescue.

Further up, the intersection of the weekly Fibonacci 61.8% level and the R1 daily pivot point at $1,837 will offer stiff resistance.

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Gold Price Forecast: $1,816 keeps luring XAUUSD sellers 

Gold Price rebounds from six-day lows but buyers remain wary.

Upbeat mood keeps USD bears in control despite a pause in the yields sell-off.

Central banks' rate hike bets cool off amid looming recession risks.

The R-word is back on the radars, prompting markets to scale back aggressive rate hike expectations from major central banks worldwide. Cooling hawkish expectations is helping calm investors’ nerves, weighing negatively on the safe-haven US dollar at the expense of gold price. However, stabilizing US Treasury yields, following the recent retreat, are keeping the further upside elusive in the bright metal. The market’s perception of risk sentiment, in the facing of lingering inflation and recession worries will continue to drive the US dollar price action, in turn, influencing XAUUSD. Attention now turns towards next Monday’s US Durable Goods data and the ECB Forum in Sintra, where the central banks’ heads are likely to participate in a panel discussion on the monetary policy.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD remains depressed below $1,850, bulls trying to defend 200-DMA

Gold met with a fresh supply on Friday and snapped a two-day winning streak.

Resurgent USD demand, the risk-on impulse turned out to be a key bearish factors.

The ongoing decline in the US bond yields offered some support and helped limit further losses.

Gold struggled to capitalize on its strong gains recorded over the past two trading sessions and witnessed some selling on the last day of the week. The XAUUSD remained depressed through the first half of the European session and was last seen trading just below the $1,850 level. Bulls, however, have managed to defend support at a technically significant 200-day SMA, warranting some caution before positioning for any further losses.

The US dollar caught aggressive bids and reversed a part of this week's retracement slide from a two-decade high amid hawkish Fed expectations. Investors seem convinced that the US central bank will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path to combat stubbornly high inflation. The bets were reaffirmed by the Fed's so-called dot plot, which showed that the median projection for the federal funds rate stood at 3.4% for 2022 and 3.8% in 2023. This, in turn, assisted the USD to snap a two-day losing streak to a one-week low and dented demand for the dollar-denominated gold.

Apart from this, the risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - further undermined the safe-haven precious metal. That said, the ongoing decline in the US Treasury bond yields offered some support to the non-yielding gold. Investors took comfort from the fact that the Fed forecasted the rate to decline to 3.4% in 2024 and 2.5% over the long run. This, in turn, dragged the US bond yields away from over a two-decade high touched earlier this week, which, along with mounting recession fears, could help limit deeper losses for gold, at least for now.

Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate for a fresh impetus later during the early North American session. Traders will further take cues from the US bond yields, the USD price dynamics and the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities around gold on the last day of the week.

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Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD consolidates near $22.00, within weekly ranges as traders eye US CPI

Silver is trading near $22.00 per troy ounce, well within this week’s ranges.

XAG/USD has traded subdued so far this week, much as with other asset classes, ahead of US CPI on Friday.

Spot silver (XAG/USD) prices continue to trade within recent intra-day ranges amid a subdued tone to broader macro trading conditions. XAG/USD is currently trading near the $22.00 per troy ounce level, well within the $21.80-$22.50ish ranges that have prevailed over the past five sessions. The precious metal continues to fund support ahead of its 21-Day Moving Average around the $21.80 level.

Silver’s directionless feel reflects the price action being seen in other major asset classes (like US equities, US bond yields and the US dollar), which are all also locked within recent intra-day ranges amid a lack of notable fundamental catalysts, as traders keep their powder dry ahead of this Friday’s US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data.

While the upcoming CPI report is just one of many reports that the looks at to gauge US inflationary pressures, it is certainly one of the more important ones, with traders set to pay particularly keen attention to measures of core price pressures. Any signs of a further slowing in the MoM and YoY rates of core inflation would contribute to the growing sense that US inflation has now peaked.

Furthermore, this would come as a welcome development for the Fed, which may be able to slow the pace of monetary tightening from September following widely flagged consecutive 50 bps rate hikes in June (next week) and July. This would probably weigh on both the US dollar and US yields, which would come as a boost to precious metals like silver. In this bullish scenario, a test of and potential break above recent highs in the $22.50 area would be on the cards, with bulls eyeing a move towards $23.00 in the short term.

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Gold Price Forecast - XAUUSD rebounds towards $1,850 as DXY eases ahead of US inflation

Gold price manages to consolidate losses at three-month low ahead of the key US inflation data.

Mixed sentiment, DXY pullback recall buyers but Fedspeak, growth fears weigh on prices.

12-day-old megaphone formation, weekly resistance line also keep sellers hopeful even as softer US CPI can extend price recovery.

Gold Price is looking to extend its recovery from three-month lows of $1,836 in the European session, as it recaptures the psychological $1,850 barrier ahead of the critical US inflation data.

The recovery momentum in XAU/USD strengthens, as the US dollar index extends its pullback from above the 104.00 level, undermined by the relief rally seen across the global markets.

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose past 1.8% market consensus to 2.1% YoY whereas the Producer Price Index (PPI) crossed 7.7% expectations with the 8.0% yearly figures. As China is among the world’s top gold consumers, firmer inflation despite the coronavirus-led lockdowns underpins the hopes of the dragon nation’s future demand for the yellow metal.

Also favoring the prices could be headlines from Shanghai local authorities that mentioned no virus spread in eight districts.

On the same line were early Asian session comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic who mentioned that the US economy is strong and demand is high while also expecting the neutral rate at 2.0-2.5%.

Even so, Cleveland Fed President and FOMC member Loretta Mester recalled the market bears as she said, “They don't rule out a 75 basis points rate hike forever”.

Also challenging the gold buyers is China’s “Zero Covid Tolerance” policy despite the World Health Organization’s (WHO) push to ease the rigid activity restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing. The lockdowns in the world’s largest industrial player pose a serious threat to global growth, especially at a time when inflation fears are high.

Elsewhere, the tales of the Russia-Ukraine war and its likely negative implications also keep gold sellers hopeful. As per the latest updates, Europe needs to divert its gas flow from Russia which previously used to arrive via Ukraine.

Gold price: Four-hour chart

Amid these plays, the US 10-yer Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY) remain pressured around 2.99% whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains near the 4,000 level after a mixed closing on Wall Street.

Looking forward, the US CPI is expected to ease to 8.1% from 8.5%, and will be important to watch for fresh impulses. However, a major focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy figures which are likely to ease to 6.0% YoY versus 6.5% prior. Should the inflation figures refrain from easing for April, the US dollar will witness magnified buying, which in turn will drag XAU/USD towards a fresh multi-month low.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD flat-lined around $1,975 region, eyes NFP for fresh impetus

Gold remained on the defensive through the early European session amid hawkish Fed expectations.

The underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the USD further acted as a headwind for the commodity.

A softer risk tone extended some support as investors await the release of the US jobs report (NFP).

Gold reversed modest intraday losses and was last seen trading around the $1,974-$1,975 region, nearly unchanged for the day during the early European session.

The spillover effect from the overnight broad sell-off on Wall Street weighed on investors' sentiment, which was evident from a softer tone around the equity markets. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that extended some support to the safe-haven gold, though any meaningful upside remains elusive amid the prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that a 75 bps rate hike is not under active consideration, though stated that policymakers were ready to approve a 50 bps increase at upcoming meetings. Moreover, the markets are still pricing in a further 200 bps rate hike for the rest of 2022, which remained supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields.

Apart from this, the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar, which held steady near its highest level in two decades, further acted as a headwind for the dollar-denominated gold. The downside, however, seems cushioned as investors wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data.

The popularly known NFP report is expected to be consistent with tightening labour market conditions and likely back the case for additional Fed rate hikes. This, along with the emergence of fresh selling on Thursday, suggests that the path of least resistance for the non-yielding gold is to the downside and any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles near one-week low, below $1,950 ahead of Powell

• Gold Price is back in the red, as sellers keep lurking just below $1,960.
• An uptick in the US bond yields acted as a headwind for the commodity.
• All eyes remain on Fed Chair Powell’s and US President Biden’s speech.

Gold struggled to capitalize on the previous day's modest rebound from over a one-week low and came under some renewed selling pressure on Thursday. The XAU/USD remained on the defensive through the early European session and was last seen trading just below the $1,950 level.

The mild recovery in the US Treasury yields on increased Fed’s hawkishness is acting as a headwind for spot prices. Gold could see further downside risks in the near term on rising bets for multiple 50 bps Fed rate hikes, which had sent the US 10-year real yields into the positive territory for the first time in two years.

Apart from this, the risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - weighed on traditional safe-haven assets, including gold. That said, the ongoing US dollar retracement slide from its highest level since March 2020 could lend some support to the dollar-denominated commodity.

The main event risk for Gold Price on Thursday remains Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Summit. His comments will hold the key, as they come just before the bank enters its "blackout" period.

Powell may fail to excite the dollar bulls and could emerge as a boon for Gold Price, as he may refrain from hinting at an aggressive tightening outlook after the US core inflation eased a bit in March.

The sentiment on global markets will be also closely followed for its impact on the safe-haven Gold amid uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine war, concerning inflation levels that threaten the economic recovery worldwide.

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 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD treads water around $1,930, in search of fresh direction

• Gold price is keeping its weekly range trade intact around $1,930.
• US dollar, yields capitalize on increased bets of a 50-bps May Fed rate hike.
• Gold Price Forecast: Will XAU/USD close the week above critical 21-DMA at $1,935?

Gold price is flatlined while trading within the mid of this week’s range around $1,930 so far this Friday. The market sentiment has somewhat improved in European trading, which has triggered a pullback in the US dollar and the Treasury yields. Although the underlying concerns over the aggressive Fed’s tightening and the Western sanctions on Russia are likely to keep the dollar bulls hopeful amid a data-light US docket. The Fed commentary continued to back the case for a 50-bps rate hike in the May meeting, dulling the demand for the non-interest-bearing gold price. The bulls need a decisive close above the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1,935 to kick start a fresh uptrend. Attention now turns towards the critical US inflation data due next week. Meanwhile, the sentiment around the dollar and yields will continue to have a significant impact on the bright metal.

Gold (XAU/USD) has tumbled below its principal cushion of $1,930.00 as the market participants are raising bets on settlement of the US dollar index (DXY) above the crucial resistance of 100.00. The precious metal is falling gradually in the Asian session after a mildly positive start on Friday.

The discussions over pushing the interest rate to its mean reversion by the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are underpinning the greenback against the yellow metal. A preliminary estimate of the yearly US Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 6.6%, which will release next week, is dictating the story of soaring inflation. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have narrated the neutral rate at 2.4% at which demand will not dampen and growth will not de-escalate. To shift the current interest rates to the neutral rate, the Fed has already announced one or more interest rate hikes by 50 basis points (bps) out of the six interest rate hikes to be announced this year.

The DXY is trading around 100.00, seeking a trigger that will drive the asset higher. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields are trading at 2.66%, at the press time and are looking to extend gains by overstepping a three-year high at 2.67%.

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