Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD unlikely to move much further from the lows

Gold climbed toward $1,650 despite the hawkish Fed tone. However, the recovery is set to stall, strategists at Commerzbank report.

Gold under pressure following the hawkish remarks made by the Fed chair

“Fed Chair Jay Powell stressed that the speed of rate hikes was not so important anymore and that the key question was the level at which interest rates would finally peak. And this, Fed members now believe, looks set to be higher than they had assumed in September.”

“The Fed’s goal is to bring real interest rates into positive territory. This means that the key rate will remain at a high level until such time as the rate of inflation has fallen below it.”

“Generally speaking, the FOMC meeting turned out to be more hawkish than expected, which was then reflected in higher interest rate expectations and a firmer dollar and ultimately caused the Gold price to fall. Shortly before hitting its yearly low, Gold did a U-turn and began climbing again, though today’s US labour market report could put the brakes on its recovery again.”

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Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD sees vulnerable, sustained weakness below $19.00 awaited

• Silver shows some resilience below the $19.00 mark and reverses the early dip to a multi-day low.
• The technical set-up still favours bearish traders and supports prospects for further near-term fall.
• A sustained strength beyond the $20.00 psychological mark is needed to negate the negative bias.

Silver reverses an intraday dip to sub-$19.00 levels, or a multi-day low and climbs to the top end of its daily trading range heading into the North American session. The XAG/USD pair is currently hovering around the $19.15-$19.20 region, still down over 0.20% for the day.

From a technical perspective, any subsequent move-up is likely to face resistance near the $19.30-$19.40 confluence support breakpoint. The said area comprises the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the sharp downfall from the monthly peak and the 100-hour SMA, which should now act as a pivotal point for intraday traders.

A sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering move and allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $20.00 psychological mark. The positive momentum could get extended towards an intermediate hurdle near the $20.50 area, above which bulls could target the $21.00 mark en route to the monthly peak, around the $21.25 region.

On the flip side, the $18.95-$18.90 zone coincides with the 23.6% Fibo. level. A convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and expose the $18.00 mark, with some intermediate support near the $18.30-$18.25 region. The XAG/USD could eventually drop further to challenge the YTD low, around the $17.55 area.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hits three-week low amid surging bond yields, stronger USD

• A combination of factors drags gold to a fresh three-week low on Wednesday.
• Hawkish Fed expectations, rising US bond yields, stronger USD exert pressure.
• The risk-off impulse could lend some support and help limit any further losses.

Gold continues losing ground through the early North American session and hits a fresh three-week low, around the $1,630 area in the last hour. The downtick is exclusively sponsored by a strong pickup in demand for the US dollar, which tends to weigh on the dollar-denominated commodity.

In fact, the USD Index, which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of currencies, has now recovered a major part of its weekly losses amid rising bets for aggressive rate hikes by the Fed. The US central bank remains committed to bringing inflation under control and is expected to deliver another supersized 75 bps rate increase at the next policy meeting in November.

Hawkish Fed expectations trigger a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields and continue to act as a tailwind for the buck. In fact, the yield on the rate-sensitive 2-year US government bond rallies to a new 15-year peak and the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit its highest level since 2008. This is seen as another factor driving flows away from the non-yielding gold.

The USD maintains its strong bid tone and seems rather unaffected by mixed US housing market data. This, along with rising bets for a jumbo rate hike by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside. Hence, a slide back towards the YTD low, around the $1,615 area, remains a distinct possibility.

That said, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, could lend support to the safe-haven gold. That said, any attempted recovery might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drops to key support amid stronger USD, Fed rate hike jitters

• Gold remains under heavy selling pressure for the fourth successive day on Monday.
• Aggressive Fed rate hike bets continue to boost the USD and weigh on the XAU/USD.
• The risk-off mood could lend some support ahead of this week’s key event/data risks.

Gold extends last week's retracement slide from the $1,730 region and continues losing ground for the fourth successive day on Monday. The downward trajectory remains uninterrupted through the first half of the European session and drags spot prices to key support at a one-week low, around the $1,678 region in the last hour.

Expectations that the Fed will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path lifts the US dollar to a one-and-half-week high, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the dollar-denominated gold. The robust US monthly jobs report released on Friday pointed to the resilient economy and gives the US central bank enough space to keep hiking rates at a faster pace to combat stubbornly high inflation.

In fact, the markets are now pricing in a greater chance of the fourth consecutive supersized 75 bps rate increase at the next FOMC policy meeting in November. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and further contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. Hence, the market focus remains on the FOMC minutes and the US consumer inflation data.

Investors will look for fresh clues about the Fed's future rate hike path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the USD and provide a fresh directional impetus to gold. Apart from this, traders, this week will take cues from the US monthly Retail Sales data. In the meantime, the prevalent risk-off mood could limit losses for the safe-haven XAU/USD amid holiday-thinned liquidity. In addition, gold has reached an important support level in the $1,670s, where it met with significant resistance prior to its breakout last week. This level is now likely to offer support to prices and provide a rallying point for bulls, although the extent of the support is difficult to determine, and traders should keep in mind that the short and medium-term bias remains to downside.

The market sentiment remains fragile amid worries about economic headwinds stemming from rapidly rising borrowing costs. Apart from this, a further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and renewed US-China trade jitters temper investors' appetite for riskier assets. That said, the lack of any buying interest around gold suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside, although a daily open or close below the current support ledge in the $1,670s would be required to confirm further downside to come.  

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD likely to extend range play around $1,660 

Gold price is turning south once again after facing rejection at higher levels.

The metal is defending gains amid a broadly weaker US dollar, risk-aversion.

XAU/USD battle lines are well-defined around $1,660 ahead of key US events.

Gold price is moving back and forth in a familiar range above $1,650, as the investors refrain from placing any directional bets amid rife geopolitical tensions concerning Russia and Ukraine, aggressive Fed rate hike bets and surging oil prices. Meanwhile, the US dollar is trading choppy but slightly on the downside, limiting the downside in the bullion. The UK tax policy U-turn put a sudden bid under GBP/USD, inducing fresh weakness in the dollar while helping the metal defend mild gains. Attention turns towards the US ISM Manufacturing PMI after the euro area and the UK S&P Global final Manufacturing PMIs failed to impress the market. The main event risk this week, however, remains the US Nonfarm Payrolls data due for release this Friday.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price is looking to challenge the $1,660 support area, where the previous day’s low, Fibonacci 38.2% one-month and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week coincide.

The SMA10 one-day at $1,657 will be seen as the next stop for sellers. Further down, the confluence of the SMA50 four-hour and Fibonacci 38.2% one-week around $1,654 could be tested.

The pivot point one-day S2 and SMA100 one-hour meeting point at $1,650 will be the line in the sand for buyers.

On the flip side, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1,665 offers immediate resistance to bulls, above which a run towards the $1,670 level cannot be ruled out. That level is the convergence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and the pivot point one-day R1.

The previous day’s high of $1,675 will be next on the buyers’ radar, followed by the previous year’s low at $1,677.

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD south-run appears more compelling 

Gold price keeps reversal from the key hurdle, drops back towards yearly low.

Risk-aversion, hawkish central banks joined firmer yields to weigh on XAU/USD.

US Q2 GDP eyed for intraday clues, recession, Russia and central banks are in focus.

Bears can keep reins unless crossing $1,660 resistance confluence.

Gold price (XAU/USD) braces for the fresh yearly low, snapping a two-day uptrend, as the US dollar bulls return to the table after a brief absence the previous day. Fears of global recession and hawkish central bank actions are the major drivers that recently propelled the greenback. On the same line could be the upbeat US trade data and doubts over the Bank of England (BOE) and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to tame the economic slowdown woes. It’s worth noting that the chatters surrounding heavy rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) joined the BOE’s surprise bond action to trigger the metal’s biggest daily jump in six months the previous day.

Given the sour sentiment and the XAU/USD pullback from the key hurdles, the bears are likely to keep the reins. However, a close watch over the aforementioned risk catalysts and the final readings of the US Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) appears necessary for clear directions.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price retreats from multiple strong resistances, suggesting a smooth run towards the south.

That said, a convergence of the previous weekly low and the SMA 100 on the hourly play, near $1,640, appears the immediate support to watch during the quote’s further weakness.

Following that, it can quickly decline towards the joint of the Pivot Point one week S1, close to $1,627.

During the XAU/USD downside past $1,627, the $1,600 appears the favorite among the gold bears.

Alternatively, $1,646 acts as the wall of resistance comprising Pivot Point one month S2, Fibonacci 38.2% on one day and 5-DMA.

If the metal prices cross the $1,646 hurdle, a run-up towards $1,653 can’t be ruled out. However, a convergence of 5-HMA, middle Bollinger on one-hour and Fibonacci 23.6% on one day and one week could challenge the buyers afterward.

It’s worth observing that the bullion’s run-up beyond $1,653 could aim for the last defense of bears, namely $1,660 that comprises the 10-DMA and Fibonacci 38.2% on one week.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edges lower in a familiar range amid relentless USD buying

Gold meets with a fresh supply on Friday and is pressured by sustained USD buying.

Aggressive Fed rate hike bets, elevated US bond yields continue to underpin the buck.

Recession fears weigh on investors’ sentiment and could offer support to the XAU/USD.

Gold attracts fresh selling near the $1,675-$1.676 area on Friday and drops to a fresh daily low during the first half of the European session. The XAU/USD is currently placed just below the $1,665 level and remains confined in a familiar trading range held since the beginning of this week.

The US dollar hits a new 20-year peak on the last day of the week and is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the dollar-denominated gold. Adding to this, the prospects for more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed further contribute to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.

In fact, the markets have been pricing in another supersized 75 bps Fed rate hike move in November. The bets were reaffirmed by the Fed's so-called dot plot, revealing that policymakers expect the benchmark lending rate to top 4% by the end of 2022. From there, central bank officials anticipate further hikes in 2023.

The Fed's hawkish outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. The yield on the rate-sensitive two-year US government bond touched a fresh 15-year high and the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped to its highest level since 2011 on Thursday. This, in turn, should continue to act as a tailwind for the buck.

Meanwhile, faster interest rate hikes by major central banks have stoked concerns of a deeper global economic downturn. This, along with headwinds stemming from China's zero-covid policy and the risk of a further escalation of the war in Ukraine, have been fueling recession fears and weighing on investors' sentiment.

This is evident from the ongoing fall in the equity markets, which could extend support to the safe-haven gold and help limit deeper losses. Even from a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action points to indecision among traders, warranting some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.

Market participants now look forward to the release of the flash US PMI prints, due later during the early North American session. The focus, however, will remain on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at an event in Washington, which will influence the USD and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around gold.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes $1,700 as path of least resistance appears down 

Gold price reverses sharply amid an upturn in the yields and the US dollar.

Global tightening bets, recession fears continue to bode ill for the bullion.

XAU/USD eyes the $1,700 mark amid a bear cross and a wall of resistance levels.   

Gold price is looking to resume the recent downtrend, as sellers fight back control ahead of key US events and the ECB rate hike decision. The European energy crisis-led recession fears keep investors on the edge while driving yields higher globally. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields are roughly 2% higher on the day at around 3.25%, emerging as the main catalyst behind the dollar recovery and the renewed downside in the non-yielding bullion. The bright metal also remains weighed down by hopes for continued tightening by major global central banks, as they remain committed in their fight to tame inflation. Further, a looming bear cross on the metal’s daily chart also keeps the downside favored for sellers. All eyes now remain on the US ISM Services PMI, ECB policy announcement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for fresh trading impetus.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price is challenging powerful support at around $1,711, which is the convergence of the previous month’s low and Fibonacci 23.6% one-day.

A sustained break below the latter will put the previous day’s low of $1,709 under threat. The next support zone is seen around $1,703, where the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and pivot point one-day S2 merge.

Sellers will then test the $1,700 mark, the round figure and the pivot point one-day S3.

On the flip side, a dense cluster of healthy resistance levels is stacked up around $1,713, the intersection of the SMA10 four-hour, Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and the SMA5 one-day.

The previous day’s high of $1,716 will offer further resistance to bulls on their road to recovery. The next relevant upside target is aligned at the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day at $1,720.

The confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week and pivot point one-day R3 at $1,724 will be the level to beat for buyers.

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

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Gold falls to fresh monthly low below $1,720

Gold came under renewed bearish pressure in the European session Tuesday.

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield is pushing higher, weighing on XAU/USD.

The US Dollar Index gains traction ahead of the employment data.

After having spent the Asian session fluctuating in a relatively tight channel above $1,720, gold turned south during the European trading hours and fell to its lowest level in a month below $1,715.

Rising US yields, dollar strength weigh on gold

The renewed dollar strength amid the souring market mood seems to be weighing on XAU/USD on Wednesday. US stock index futures dropped into negative territory in the European session, suggesting that safe-haven flows are starting to dominate the market action. In turn, the US Dollar Index climbed above 109.00.

Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up nearly 1% on the day at 3.138%, not allowing gold to shake off the bearish pressure.

Moreover, investors grow increasingly worried about gold's demand outlook with China clinging to its zero-Covid policy and imposing renewed restrictions in a number of cities.

In the second half of the day, the ADP will release its private sector employment report for August. Fed policymakers have repeatedly said that they will assess the data before deciding on the size of the September rate hike. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in a 71.5% probability of a 75 basis points rate increase at the next FOMC meeting. A stronger-than-expected ADP print could allow hawkish Fed bets to continue to drive the dollar's valuation ahead of Friday's highly-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Market participants will also pay close attention to the performance of Wall Street's main indexes after the opening bell. Unless there is a noticeable improvement in risk mood, the dollar is likely to preserve its strength during the American session.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD needs to crack $1,763 to extend the downside

Gold price nurses losses after impressive US NFP-inspired sell-off.

US dollar eases in tandem with the Treasury yields amid a better mood.

XAU/USD looks south towards $1,750, as 75 bps Sept Fed rate hike bets rise.

Gold price is licking its wound below the $1,800 mark, awaiting a fresh catalyst for the next leg lower. Risk-on flows have returned at the start of the week, fuelling a broad-based US dollar retreat while the Treasury yields also ease. Investors assess the implications of a super-sized Fed rate next months, the odds for which now stand at 70% after a big upside surprise in the US Nonfarm Payrolls for July. The jobs blowout raised the stakes for the July US inflation report due on Wednesday. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) could likely see a slight pullback in headline growth but the core figure is seen accelerating. The debate of peak inflation remains in play heading into the key event risk of the week. The non-yielding bullion is expected to remain highly reactive to the US employment and inflation data after the Fed said that it remains data-dependent while deciding on its policy outlook.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price needs to slice through a bunch of healthy support levels around the $1,772-$1,771 area to resume the post-NFP sell-off.

That demand zone is the convergence of the SMA5 one-day, Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and the previous low four-hour.

The Fibonacci 61.8% one-week at $1,769 will be next on sellers’ radars. However, bears need acceptance below the confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month and pivot point one-day S1 at $1,763 to negate the recent bullish momentum.

Further south, the intersection of the previous week’s low and the pivot point one-week S1 at $1,754 will guard the downside.

On the upside, the immediate resistance appears at $1,775, above which the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week at %1,780 will be challenged.

The next resistance levels are located at $1,784 and $1,786, which are the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week respectively.

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD climbs to $1,775 area, fresh daily high amid softer USD

Gold gains traction for the second successive day on Thursday amid modest USD weakness.

Retreating US bond yields seem to weigh on the USD and lend support to the commodity.

The prospects for a further policy tightening by the Fed could cap ahead of the NFP on Friday.

Gold builds on the previous day's modest move up and gains some follow-through traction for the second successive day on Thursday. The steady intraday ascent extends through the early European session and lifts the XAU/USD to a fresh daily high, around the $1,774-$1,775 region.

Growing worries about a global economic slowdown, along with heightened US-China tensions caused by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan trip, continue to act as a tailwind for gold. Apart from this, the emergence of some selling around the US dollar offers additional support to the dollar-denominated commodity. Despite more hawkish comments by FOMC members, the USD has been struggling to capitalize on this week's goodish bounce from its lowest level since July 5 amid retreating US Treasury bond yields.

That said, the prospects for a further policy tightening by the Fed could hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets around the non-yielding gold. In fact, several Federal Reserve officials hinted this week more interest rates are coming in the near term. This, along with the recent recovery in the global equity markets, could further contribute to capping gains for the safe-haven XAU/USD. Investors might also prefer to move on the sidelines ahead of the release of closely-watched US monthly employment details.

The popularly known NFP report is scheduled for release on Friday and will play an important role in influencing the USD price dynamics. This, in turn, would act as a fresh catalyst, which should allow traders to determine the near-term trajectory for gold. In the meantime, traders on Thursday would take cues from the Bank of England monetary policy decision. Later during the early North American session, the usual US Weekly Jobless Claims data could produce some trading opportunities around the XAU/USD.

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