Dow Futures Fall 120 Pts; Earnings in Focus as Week Closes

U.S. stocks are seen opening marginally lower Friday, continuing the previous session’s selloff on fears of sharp monetary policy tightening while quarterly corporate earnings continue to emerge.

At 7 AM ET (1100 GMT), the Dow Futures contract was down 120 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 Futures traded 14 points, or 0.3%, lower and Nasdaq 100 Futures dropped 36 points, or 0.3%.

The three main Wall Street indices closed substantially lower Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offered up his most aggressive approach to taming inflation to date, largely cementing a 50-basis-point rate hike at the central bank’s May meeting.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed more than 300 points, or 1.1%, lower, the broad-based S&P 500 fell 1.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite suffered the most, dropping 2.1%.

Looking at the week as a whole, the Dow is on course to register a gain of 1%, which would break a three-week losing streak, the S&P 500 is largely flat, and the Nasdaq Composite is down 1.3%, which would be its third consecutive losing week.

Away from future Fed moves, investors are also focusing on the new earnings season. So far, with a few notable exceptions, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) springs to mind, big companies have been relatively positive on the outlook for the current quarter and the remainder of the year.

More results are due Friday, with the focus on the likes of wireless carrier Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), credit card company American Express (NYSE:AXP) and manufacturing conglomerate Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON).

After the close Thursday, social media platform Snap (NYSE:SNAP) warned that the high inflation could hit revenue growth even as it forecast second-quarter daily active users at between 343 million and 345 million, above Wall Street estimates of 340 million.

Clothes retailer Gap (NYSE:GPS) cut its forecast for quarterly sales, citing execution challenges at its Old Navy brand, adding the head of this brand, Nancy Green, was leaving the company.

The economic data slate centers around the release of business activity data for April, with the manufacturing PMI seen falling back slightly from the previous month’s 58.8, and the Markit composite PMI dropping from March’s 57.7.

The equivalent data saw a two-speed Eurozone, with the bloc's dominant services sector seeing a sharp increase in activity as consumers shrugged off soaring prices, while manufacturers struggled on the back of supply chain disruptions.

Oil prices weakened Friday, weighed by prospects of interest rate hikes and slowing global growth, while China, the world’s largest crude importer, continued to struggle with a COVID-19 outbreak.

The week ends with the release of U.S. oil rig numbers from Baker Hughes and CFTC speculative positioning data. 

By 7 AM ET, U.S. crude futures traded 1.5% lower at $102.21 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell 1.4% to $106.82. Both benchmarks are on course for weekly losses of over 4%.

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Russian companies, banks could reap windfall from depositary receipt delisting

Russian companies and global banks including BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK), Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn), Citigroup (NYSE:C) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) could profit if Moscow moves to de-list Russian companies' depositary receipts from foreign exchanges, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The potential windfall is due to the fees that bank issuers of depositary receipts can contractually charge investors when they cancel the product.

It is unclear how much companies and banks could make or if banks will charge the fees and risk angering investors who say it would be unfair given the extraordinary circumstances which have been triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

However, the fees could potentially translate into hundreds of millions of dollars according to Reuters' calculations based on fee data provided by the sources.

Assailed by Western sanctions, Moscow is preparing to de-list Russian company depositary receipts from foreign exchanges and convert them into local Russian securities in a bid to reduce foreigners' control over these companies.

Depositary receipts are certificates issued by a bank representing shares in a foreign company traded on a local stock exchange. They allow investors to dabble in overseas stocks in their own geography and time zone.

There are more than 30 depositary receipts on Russian companies including Gazprom (MCX:GAZP), Rosneft, Lukoil and Norilsk Nickel issued by BNY Mellon, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, JPMorgan, among others, trading on U.S. and European markets.

Under standard agreements, depositary receipts can be canceled by the issuer or the investor. When that happens, the investor typically gets cash from the sale of the underlying shares, although they have the right to take custody of the shares instead.

Banks charge an administration fee, typically around $0.05 per receipt, which may be shared with the companies, two sources said.

If Moscow de-lists Russian depositary receipts, banks will have to cancel the products. Banks could still charge the fees, even though their hand was forced, according to three sources.

For example, an investor in Rosneft with 150 million depositary receipts representing the same number of shares in the company could be on the hook for $7.5 million in cancellation fees, according to Reuters' calculations.

Sweeping Western sanctions could make it challenging for banks to transfer the cash to some companies.

Regardless, some investors say the fees should not apply. One global asset manager told Reuters that if Russia passes the de-listing law there should be no fees as investors would have no choice in the matter. The other two sources, however, say banks still have to cover their costs.

BNY Mellon, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan and Citigroup declined to comment. Russian companies did not respond to a Reuters emails seeking comment.

MARKET FREEZE

As Western sanctions pummeled Russian stocks from late February, the Moscow exchange closed and the Russian central bank banned foreigners from transferring shares out of their custody accounts. It also barred foreigners from selling Russian shares.

The restrictions made it nearly impossible for banks to cancel receipts when asked by investors anxious to slash their Russia exposure.

With curbs on custodians recently lifted, BNY Mellon, Citi and JPMorgan have resumed processing cancellations. But because the foreign banks still can't sell the shares, investors have to take custody of them instead. To do that, investors need an account in Russia, which many don't have.

As a result, a lot of investors are likely to hold onto the receipts for the time being, according to three people.

Many investors are worried, however, about the de-listing bill which Russia is preparing.

Aside from the potential cancellation fees, investors are worried about what will happen if they can't open a local custody account.

In a note to clients, JPMorgan said clients may be able to open a Russian account under some unspecified circumstances if the new law is passed.

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 Euro gains respite from Macron's French election lead

The euro looked set to snap a seven-day losing streak versus the dollar on Monday, as the single currency rallied after French leader Emmanuel Macron beat far right challenger Marine Le Pen in the country's first round of presidential voting.

Investor concerns about the future direction of the euro zone's second-biggest economy have weighed on the euro and added to worries over the economic costs of war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the dollar has been pushed higher by rising U.S. yields and expectations the Federal Reserve will act quickly to stem inflation. One of the big fallers has been the Japanese yen, which fell to a fresh seven-year low versus the dollar.

Macron will face Le Pen in what promises to be a tightly fought French presidential election runoff on April 24.

Nonetheless, Macron's lead in the first round provided some respite for the euro - lifting it by as much as three quarters of a percent in Asian trading hours to $1.0955. It was last up 0.3% at $1.09080.

Currency analysts said the contest remained on a knife-edge with negative implications for the euro.

"The narrower than expected victory for President Macron will keep alive fears that there is an outside chance that Le Pen can become president," analysts at MUFG said in a note.

"The first-round results and the opinion polls pointing towards a close result in the second round will remain a modest weight on the euro in the coming weeks."

The dollar index - which tracks the greenback against a basket of six peers - was broadly flat on the day, just shy of the 100 mark hit last week for the first time in nearly two years.

As the dollar has gained ground, investors have seen little reason to exit bets against the yen while the Bank of Japan holds yields near zero.

The yen fell as much as 1% on the day to 125.55 yen per dollar, its lowest level since 2015.

"There's nothing there to frighten people out of dollar/yen positions," said National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY)'s head of foreign exchange Ray Attrill. "So onwards and upwards for dollar/yen."

Sterling was broadly flat versus the dollar at $1.30380.

The Russian rouble weakened in jittery trade, reversing some of the previous week's gains, after the central bank decided to relax temporary capital control measures.

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 Singapore: Prospects for retail sales remain solid despite February drop

“Singapore’s retail sales unexpectedly contracted 3.4% y/y in Feb 2022, disappointing market estimates for a 5.6% y/y expansion. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell 1.8% y/y in the same month.”

“The decline in retail sales was partly due to lower receipts as compared to Feb 2021, during which sales were supported by pre-Chinese New Year (CNY) expenditure. For this year, pre-CNY spending occurred mainly in Jan 2022.”

“For the year ahead, we expect that domestic retailers will likely see some support as borders continue to reopen, while further economic recovery would be a lynchpin for domestic retail demand. Barring the exacerbation of COVID-19-related risks in Singapore and around the region, we pencil retail sales to expand by 6.0% in 2022.”

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