EUR/USD finally breaks above 1.0300 to print 5-week highs

EUR/USD surpasses the key 1.0300 level post-US CPI.

Germany Final CPI rose 7.5% YoY in July.

US CPI surprised to the downside at 8.5% in July.

EUR/USD sees its upside gathers further traction and advance to new multi-week peaks past the 1.0300 level on Wednesday.

EUR/USD boosted by USD-weakness

EUR/USD quickly left behind the key hurdle at 1.0300 the figure after US inflation figures tracked by the CPI disappointed expectations. Indeed, consumer prices rose 8.5% in the year to July, while the CPI excluding food and energy costs rose 5.9% from a year earlier, coming in also below initial estimates for a 6.1% YoY gain.

The pair’s sharp upside follows the equally abrupt – although in the opposite direction – decline in the greenback, as investors now perceive that the Federal Reserve might save a 75 bps rate hike for later and raise rates by half point instead at the September gathering.

On the latter, the probability of a 75 bps hike by the Fed in September shrank to around 27% from nearly 70% before the CPI data was published, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD breaks above the 1.0300 hurdle with certain conviction helped by the intense drop in the dollar in the wake of lower-than-expected US CPI prints for the month of July.

Price action around the European currency, in the meantime, is expected to closely follow dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns, fragmentation worries and the Fed-ECB divergence.

On the negatives for the single currency emerges the so far increasing speculation of a potential recession in the region, which looks propped up by dwindling sentiment gauges and the incipient slowdown in some fundamentals.

Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Final Inflation Rate (Wednesday) – EMU Industrial Production (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle. Italian elections in late September. Fragmentation risks amidst the ECB’s normalization of monetary conditions. Impact of the war in Ukraine on the region’s growth prospects and inflation.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is gaining 1.23% at 1.0340 and faces the next up barrier at 1.0346 (monthly high August 10) seconded by 1.0377 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.0615 (weekly high June 27). On the flip side, a break below 1.0096 (weekly low July 26) would target 1.0000 (psychological level) en route to 0.9952 (2022 low July 14).

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Recession concerns and the impact on long term yields – UOB

UOB Group’s Head of Markets Strategy Heng Koon How, CAIA, Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia, Rates Strategist Victor Yong and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang assess the ongoing recession fears and its effect on the long term yield.

Key Takeaways

“The Recession vs Inflation debate has intensified and taken an interesting turn. For now, it would appear that Recession fears are dominating amidst increasing signs of growth slowdown. However, it is important to note that Inflation risks are far from over and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and other global central banks remain committed to continue their aggressive rate hikes in the months ahead.”

“We maintain our positive core view on a stronger USD and note that this latest USD rally still has legs and with USD strength extending further into this current Fed hiking cycle than in previous cycles. Elevated volatility and increasing safe haven needs are supportive of further USD strength.”

“In the Major FX, we lower our EUR/USD forecast and see risk of parity for the remaining months of the year as a worsening energy crisis in Europe and on-going political crisis in Italy nullify the yield support from the start of the ECB’s rate hiking cycle. On the other hand, USD/JPY is finally seeing prospects of topping out after the retreat in 10-year US Treasuries yield.”

“In terms of short-term rates outlook, we continue to see on-going rate hikes from the US Fed as well as other central banks in the months ahead. As such, the rise in short term rates is not over. We raise our year end forecasts for 3-month compounded SOFR and SORA to 3.30% and 2.60% respectively (from 2.99% and 2.29% previously).”

“As for long term yield outlook, elevated recession fears have started to dampen and weigh on long term yield. We lower our 10-year UST and SGS outlook for end of the year to 3.60% and 3.20% respectively (from 3.80% and 3.40% previously). Consequently, as a result of higher short term rates and the pull back in long term yield, yield curve inversion can persist for longer during high inflation regimes or until evidence that monetary policy tightening has peaked.”

“In terms of technical analysis, we note that after the recent heavy pullback in yield, the risk for 10-year US Treasuries yield is still clearly on the downside; next support levels to monitor are at 2.557% and 2.500%.”

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GBP/USD falls towards 1.2000 as USD crawls higher ahead of data

GBP/USD returns to the red as the US dollar sees resurgent demand.

Lack of UK political news and risk-off flows weigh on cable.

The pair recaptures 21 DMA but RSI still remains bearish.

GBP/USD is extending its pullback from three-week highs of 1.2091 in the European session, as risk-off flows dominate amid the worsening European gas crisis and an imminent recession in Germany.

Investors seek refuge in the traditional safe-haven asset, the US dollar, as the buck picks up fresh bids to recapture 106.50 against its major peers. The ongoing sell-off in the US Treasury yields fail to deter the dollar bulls. The greenback also finds demand, as investors turn cautious ahead of the Fed’s expected 75 bps rate hike announcement.

Meanwhile, various factors continue to limit the bullish attempts in the pound. A lack of any encouraging on the UK political front, with candidates Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak battling out the leadership race. Ahead of next week’s BOE rate decision, money markets suggest a bold 50 bps than a conservative 25 bps increase. However, economists are much less certain, with 25 out of 54 polled by Reuters expecting a half-point hike, according to the latest Reuters poll.

Friday’s CFTC data showed IMM speculators reduced their GBP exposure by 10% in the fortnight to July 19, with gross GBP longs cut by 7,675 contracts to 33,850, per Reuters. The pair now awaits the US Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales data. The main event risk for this week, however, remains the FOMC decision due on Wednesday.

Looking at the cable’s daily chart, the pair closed Monday above the bearish 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA), then at 1.2006.

Although with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lurking below the midline, sellers have returned and look to retest the 21 DMA resistance turned support, now at 1.1997.

A sustained break below the latter will expose Monday’s low of 1.1960, below which a test of the 1.1900 level will be inevitable.

On the flip side, if bulls manage to defend the 21 DMA, then a fresh advance towards the descending 50 DMA at 1.2238 cannot be ruled out.

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When is the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and how could it affect EURUSD?

ECB monetary policy decision – Overview

The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision this Thursday at 12:15 GMT, which will be followed by the post-meeting press conference at 12:45 GMT. The ECB is all but certain to hike its benchmark interest rates for the first time since 2011. Markets, meanwhile, are split on whether the ECB policymakers would stick to the previously telegraphed 25 bps increase or raise rates by 50 bps to curb runaway inflation.

According to Dhwani Mehta, Senior Analyst at FXStreet: “The ECB will deliver a 50 bps lift-off this month, in the wake of rampant inflation, resumption of the Russian gas supply and the fact that the ECB is way behind the curve. It’s also worth noting that front-loading rates now may allow the central bank some room to pause or go slower on rate hikes when a recession hits.”

How could it affect EURUSD?

Given that the ECB has pre-committed to start the rate-hike cycle in July, a 25 bps increase is fully priced into the markets and might do little to provide a meaningful impetus to the shared currency. A bigger move, meanwhile, could trigger a sharp rise in the bond yields for highly indebted countries. The risk, however, could be mitigated if the ECB announces details of its new anti-fragmentation tool. Nevertheless, the event is likely to infuse some volatility around the euro cross and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around the EURUSD pair.

Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, outlined important technical levels for the EURUSD pair: “On the downside, 1.0170 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as first support ahead of 1.0100 (psychological level, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 50-period SMA on the four-hour chart). In case the latter fails, the pair, once again, could test parity. Resistances are located at 1.0200 (psychological level), 1.0220 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 100-period SMA) and 1.0270 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).”

About the ECB interest rate decision

ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European Central Bank. Usually, if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.

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EUR/USD looks offered but holds on above 1.0700, focus on Lagarde

EUR/USD extends the corrective downside near 1.0700.

The greenback regains poise amidst higher yields.

ECB’s Lagarde, US ISM Manufacturing next of note in the docket.

The offered bias remains well and sound around the European currency and puts EUR/USD under pressure near the 1.0700 mark on Wednesday.

EUR/USD focuses on Lagarde

EUR/USD sheds ground for the second straight session, as the recovery in the greenback appears to have picked up extra pace on Wednesday.

Indeed, the downtick in the pair comes amidst further rebound in US yields along the curve, while the German 10y Bund yields reached new 3-week tops past 1.15%.

No reaction around the euro after ECB’s Holzmann favoured once again hiking rates by 50 bps against the current backdrop of elevated inflation figures.

In the calendar, final figures showed the German Manufacturing PMI improve a tad to 54.8 in May and tick lower to 54.6 when it comes to the broader Euroland. Still on the latter, the Unemployment Rate remained at 6.8% in April. Later in the session, Chairwoman Lagarde will speak at a BIS event.

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 EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Correction lower could extend to 134.30

• EUR/JPY comes under pressure and approaches 137.00.
• The April lows around 134.30 emerge as the next support of note.

EUR/JPY adds to Friday’s retracement and revisits the vicinity of the 137.00 mark at the beginning of the week.

Further weakness should not be ruled out in the very near term. That said, the corrective move in the cross could extend further and retest the monthly lows around 134.30.

In the meantime, while above the 200-day SMA at 130.56, the outlook for the cross is expected to remain constructive.

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EUR/USD unlikely to gain traction while below 1.0830

EUR/USD has staged a modest rebound to the 1.08 area. Unless the pair manages to clear the 1.0830 resistance, sellers are likely to continue to dominate the pair's action.

1.0760 aligns as key near-term support for the euro

“Investors will keep a close on US T-bond yields. In case the 10-year yield rises above 3%, EUR/USD could come under renewed bearish pressure.”

“In order to extend its rebound, EUR/USD needs to clear the static level that seems to have formed at 1.0830. Above that level, the 1.0850/1.0860 area (50-period SMA, static level) aligns as the next hurdle ahead of 1.09 (static level, psychological level).”

“On the downside, key support is located at 1.0760 (static level, post-ECB low). If that level turns into resistance, 1.0730 (April 24, 2020, low) and 1.07 (psychological level) could be seen as the next bearish targets.”

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