Checkout the past 24 hours news- Money life research

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - The Federal Reserve issues money policy reports for the first 2 quarters of the year.

 - Williams called rising US yields a positive sign.

 - The United States officially returned to the Paris Agreement.

 - Biden approved Texas as a "state of great disaster".

 - G7 is committed to continuing to provide fiscal stimulus.

 - Pfizer vaccine does not need refrigeration.

 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data this week

 - This week, Fed Chairman Powell will turn to two hearings in the Senate and the House of Representatives to deliver testimony on the next year's monetary policy report.  Several senior Fed officials, including Fed Vice Chairman Clarida, will also speak.  And European Central Bank President Lagarde will also deliver a speech.

 - The US House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on President Biden's $ 1.9 trillion stimulus plan on Feb. 26. If it can be passed, it will be submitted to the Senate for a vote.  The stimulus may be reduced to a certain extent, but it is expected that it will eventually be adopted.

 - On February 26-27, the finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of 20 Countries (G20) will hold a video conference, expected to discuss the new pandemic,  possible global economic and collaborative methods.

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Check out the news of the past 24 hours

 1️⃣ BoJ is about to have a big policy change

 - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) may replace some of the directions in buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with a commitment to increase buying when the market becomes volatile, three sources familiar with the matter said.

 This move will allow the BOJ to more flexibly slow down buying when the market stabilizes, while reassuring investors that they will act aggressively when shock events cause volatility.

 Although there was no consensus on a final decision, the idea was among the options being made at BOJ before reviewing its policy instruments in March, sources told Reuters  .

 2️⃣ The EU will become tougher

 - The Trade Commissioner said the European Union will become more assertive in trade negotiations and push its international partners to incorporate climate change combat into future agreements.

 - In an interview published in some media about the 27-nation's trade policy review on Thursday, Valdis Dombrovskis said the EU would seek to overhaul its dispute settlement system.  World Trade Organization (WTO) and making sure it sets the rules for digital trade.

 - "In order to protect itself when other parties do not play by the rules, the EU will take tougher and more assertive steps", Dombrovskis was quoted by Politico.  "We will strengthen our tools to protect our rights and values, and protect ourselves from unfair commercial practices."

 - The bloc will also review the due diligence rules to exclude products related to forced labor from the value chain of EU companies and promote the regulatory authorities to protect the EU from action.  forced by third countries.

 3️⃣ Other news

 - US EIA natural gas inventories recorded the strongest drop in two years last week

 - The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States recorded 861,000 last week.

 US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Compared with inflation, the risk of economic injury is greater.

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USD: Another possible higher leg, as bonds, can remain fragile

 USD: Another possible higher leg, as bonds, can remain fragile

At the moment, the sell-off in US Treasuries is the key driver of FX, with the dollar eventually seeking help, and not only relative to the normal JPY victim, as commodity currencies are actually hit the hardest. Although reflationary bets are doubling down on the bond market, other assets do not display signs of upbeat risk sentiment. The danger is that the rate of increase in US yields has accumulated in order to begin to be self-defeating and to trigger risk assets to be corrected. In FX, the ideal recipe for a stronger US dollar is indeed the combination of higher US yields and choppy equity results. The announcement of US retail sales for January and the FOMC minutes are the main risk events. As retail sales may be on the strong side and also in the run-up to the FOMC minutes, where investors are likely to factor in some initial debate between members about the timing of unwinding monetary stimulus, the bond market will remain fragile. Therefore, the bar for a hawkish surprise is set very high, and the release of the minutes can alleviate the selling pressure on US Treasuries, likely beginning to re-establish an atmosphere where rising equities are not interfered with by a more regulated increase in yields. The dollar should continue to find some help across the board until then.

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The Main News Yesterday

 1️⃣The main news yesterday

 - Bond yields turned up because of concerns about inflation, USD recovered again

 - Spot gold dropped sharply by 25 USD and hit 1770.

 - US retail sales in January reached the largest increase in 7 months.

 - Minutes of the meeting of the Fed: Will continue to maintain the easing policy.

 - US crude oil output fell by more than 40% due to severe cold weather.

 - Foreign media said that Saudi Arabia will increase production by 1 million barrels/day.

 - The EU and Moderna reach an agreement to supply new vaccines.

 2️⃣ Today's notable facts and data

 - European Central Bank will announce the minutes of the monetary policy meeting Previously, the President of the European Central Bank Lagarde said that the loose monetary policy stance is still an important factor.

 - US will be released on February 13 during the week the initial number of unemployment claims, is expected to be less than the previous value.  In addition, Fed Governor Brainard and Fed official Bostic will deliver speeches later in the evening, and you should be able to pay attention to their statements on the current economic and monetary policy situation.

 - Today, EIA crude inventories will be announced for the week from the US to February 12th. API stocks announced in the morning fell 5.8 million barrels, larger than expected.  ants.  If the EIA inventory also decreased significantly.  is expected to continue to support oil prices.

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Dow Jones, Hang Seng, ASX 200 Outlook

 YIELDS, US DOLLAR, GOLD, INFLATION, ASIA-PACIFIC STOCKS OUTLOOK:

US equity futures edged lower on Wednesday morning after major stock benchmarks closed near record highs overnight. Investors are probably trying to strike a balance between reflation hopes and seemingly overstretched valuations, allowing recent rallies to take a brief pause. The S&P 500 index is trading near 32.3 times price-to-earnings, far above its five-year average of 21.2. Rich multiples may render the index vulnerable to profit-taking should rising yields and a stronger US Dollar trigger a technical pullback.

It is worth noting that the 10-year Treasury yield climbed more than 10bps overnight to 1.321%, the highest level seen in almost a year. Rising yields may exert further downward pressure on precious metal prices because the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets becomes higher. For equities, it means that intrinsic value becomes lower when future cash flow streams are discounted back at a higher required rate of return.

Gold prices plunged 1.26% and broke below the US$ 1,800 mark as yield climbed alongside a stronger USD. WTI crude oil prices stayed elevated, however, backed by a cold blast in parts of the US and disruption in crude oil production in Texas.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Dow Jones

Asia-Pacific equities look set to retreat from Monday’s highs as profit-taking activity kicks in. Futures across Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and India are pointing to a lower start. Mainland Chinese bourses remain shut for the Chinese New Year holiday and will re-open on Thursday. In the currency market, the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars edged lower, suggesting that sentiment is tilted to the bearish side.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) advanced 1.9% on Tuesday, breaking through the 30,000 psychological resistance levels with no hesitation. Property and finance sub-sectors were leading, with HSBC (+7.65%) being the single largest contributor to the index’s gain. With the return of mainland investors on Thursday, sectoral rotation may lean towards in favor of technology firms again.

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Today's Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook

Tesla’s $1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin and its plans to begin accepting the popular cryptocurrency as a form of payment, has fostered the anti-fiat asset’s surge higher in recent weeks. Indeed, the digital currency has climbed over 74% for the year and looks set to continue gaining ground on the back of loose monetary policy conditions and the expectation of further financial support out of the US.

Moreover, Bank of New York Mellon’s statement that it would treat BTC the same as any other financial asset and Mastercard’s commitment to integrating Bitcoin into its payment networks, may further validate the cryptocurrency as a mainstream asset and intensify capital inflows in the near term. Here are the key levels to watch for BTC/USD.

The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains overtly bullish, as price tracks firmly above all six moving averages, and the MACD indicator surges to its highest levels on record.

However, bearish RSI divergence suggests that the relentless surge higher could be running out of steam. With that in mind, failing to gain a firm foothold above 50,000 could trigger a short-term pullback to former resistance-turned-support at the January high (41969).

Breaching opens the door for sellers to drive the cryptocurrency back to psychological support at the 30,000 marks. That being said, an extended pullback seems relatively unlikely given the RSI remains comfortably above 70, and the marked steepening of all six moving averages.

Therefore, a weekly close above 50,000 would likely intensify buying pressure and carve a path for a price to challenge the 261.8% Fibonacci (54866). Clearing that brings the 300% Fibonacci (62402) into the crosshairs.

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How China-ASEAN Relations Impact SGD, IDR, MYR, PHP

 CHINA-ASEAN RELATIONS, SINGAPORE DOLLAR, INDONESIAN RUPIAH, MALAYSIAN RINGGIT, PHILIPPINE PESO – TALKING POINTS

• How do changes in Chinese growth impact ASEAN FX: SGD, IDR, MYR, PHP?
• How did the trade war and coronavirus impact the China-ASEAN relationship?
• How the relationship between China & ASEAN fits into the core-Perimeter model

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, also known as ASEAN, orbits the world’s second-largest economy – China. The bloc is aimed at helping to promote economic growth in participating countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore. Using the Core-Perimeter model, China functions as the economic powerhouse (core) which ASEAN states strongly rely on as a source of their growth (perimeter).

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA AND ASEAN (SGD, IDR, MYR, PHP)

On average in 2018, China accounted for one-third of total trade in ASEAN nations, when looking at their top five trading partners. China’s economy has been maturing and gradually shifting away from exports and towards consumption as the primary source of economic growth. This makes the East Asian giant relatively less sensitive to external shocks than its ASEAN neighbors.

This is because those perimeter economies (ASEAN) are more at risk of experiencing external shocks that undermine their growth trajectory than the core (China) due to their cycle-sensitive nature. The latter’s economy has been slowly shifting towards a consumer-based economy, which gives it more insulation to external shocks than outward-facing economies like those in ASEAN.

As Chinese growth began to show signs of stabilization, the prospect of that positive economic reverberation echoing out into its ASEAN neighbors precipitated a rush of capital flowing into the bloc’s assets. Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso all rose with other growth-oriented instruments as signs of optimism from the core gave a flicker of hope for an economic recovery in the perimeter.

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Weekly Overview on Market

  1️⃣ The main news over the weekend

 Democrats pave the way for Biden's $ 1.9 trillion COVID-19 rescue plan.

 - Biden: It can take 10 years to fully restore employment to current rates and needs an emergency relief plan.

 - US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Without strong relief measures, the economic recovery will be long and slow.

 - Lower-than-expected "non-farm" data.  The unemployment rate dropped to a record low for nearly a year.

 The AstraZeneca vaccine has limited effectiveness against the new South African variant of the coronavirus.

 Nigeria, the world's second-largest bitcoin market, bans cryptocurrency trading.

 - Germany plans to expand the blockade.

 - Bank of England Governor Bailey: Expect a boom in consumption after the blockade is lifted.

 2️⃣ Notable facts and data this week

 This week investors should pay attention to the speeches of several central bank officials:

 * On Tuesday, the President of the European Central Bank Lagarde joined the European Parliament's debate over the European Central Bank's 2019 Annual Report.

 * On Wednesday, Lagarde took part in a webinar on news figures organized by The Economist.

 * On Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech at an online event hosted by the Economic Club of New York.

 * From Wednesday to Thursday, the three major organizations EIA, IEA, and OPEC will release their monthly reports, if the report shows that the oil market is optimistic it may boost oil prices further.

Short Term Stock Tips

EUR/USD Outlook Bleak as Traders Rush for US

• Traders have become addicted to the US Dollar as a high US vaccination rate, the prospect of a strong economic recovery, and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will start to tighten monetary policy soon make it their currency of choice.
• That is bad news for EUR/USD, with the Eurozone seen as lagging behind on vaccinations, an economic recovery is seen as still far away and another interest rate cut still a possibility.
• 
  

EURO PRICE AT RISK OF FURTHER FALLS

Last Thursday’s drop in EUR/USD below 1.20 for the first time since December 1, 2020, was highly significant not just technically but also psychologically. It provided a stark reminder to traders that the Eurozone is lagging far behind the US (and the UK) in vaccinating its citizens against coronavirus and that any economic recovery will therefore likely lag behind too.

In recent months, the US Dollar has become the markets’ favorite safe haven but when the global economic recovery arrives it could well prove to be the leader on the way up too. As mentioned earlier, traders are confident that the currencies of countries that are ahead in vaccinating their citizens against the coronavirus, like the US and the UK, will be the first to recover economically from the slump caused by the pandemic.

That means central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will also be the first to begin tightening monetary policy, perhaps while the European Central Bank is still considering a rate cut to boost activity.

This is all bad news for EUR/USD, which is now back to where the ECB would prefer it to be and could conceivably drop to the lows around 1.16 last seen in early November – though not, of course, in the short-term.

WEEK AHEAD: GERMAN INFLATION, TRADE, AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

Turning to the data in the week ahead, there is little market-moving on the agenda. The highlight could be Wednesday’s final German inflation data for January, expected to show a rise to 1.0% year/year after the previous 0.3% fall. Otherwise, German and Eurozone industrial production and German trade figures are on the calendar too.

Short Term Stock Recommendations

Key Point for Forex Trader You Need Know

 

[Monthly Review] January is over. Let the fun begin

The level of market prices is influenced continuously by worldwide political and economic news. We suggest reviewing those that had the most significant impact on the financial markets in January.

The key headlines:

1.The inauguration of the 46th President of the USA Joe Biden

2.The ECB and the FED rate decisions

3.U.S. earnings report season

4.The rollout of vaccination in the U.K. and Europe

5.Bitcoin's historical price records

U.S. President Biden urged Congress to take immediate action on his 1.9 trillion dollar COVID-19 relief proposal

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Monthly Overview on Oil

Monthly change: XBRUSD -3.15%

Oil prices rose in January due to the U.S. oil inventories continuing to descend towards the five-year average. The rebalancing of the oil market continues despite the rising coronavirus cases since late 2020. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, inventories have fallen in 24 of the last 30 weeks. As a result, oil reserves are now 6% higher than the pre-pandemic average for the five-year 2015-2019 period compared with a surplus of 14% at the end of June.

The XBRUSD pair has traded in the price range of 54.80 and 56.04 for the last two weeks and declined on Friday. Investors have concerns about lockdowns in Europe, which could hinder demand recovery caused the decline.

The bullish trend is prevailing in the oil market, but it needs more triggers to continue growth. Perhaps it will be the decision of OPEC+ quotas on 3 February. 

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Technical Gold Overview February 1 to 5, 2021:

 + Gold this new week, the goal at the beginning of the week is a sell soup, everyone.  Close so last weekend was a withdrawal candle, showing that the sellers were still dominant.  Gold is likely to head towards lower milestones like 1800-1810.

 You should watch Sell this week.  Buy bottom positions should set SL short.  because if the price breaks through the psychological resistance of 1800. it is likely that the price will continue to fall deeply.

 + Our prediction is that the price will be 1800-1810 in the first days of the week, then there will be a slight recovery.  In my opinion next week the price will be difficult to move up because the sellers seem to have the upper hand.

+ My recommendation is the mainstream SELL soup.  with the following level: 1825 1810 1800

 ===> HAPPY TRADING NEW WEEK, NEW MONTH SUCCESSFUL !!!

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