USD/CAD: Giving the downside the benefit of the doubt – Credit Suisse

 USD/CAD has closed just above the important 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2623. However, economists at Credit Suisse give the downside the benefit of the doubt for now. 

Bearish bias whilst below 1.2667

“USD/CAD has broken above its key 200-DMA, lessening conviction in our bearish outlook, but for now, we continue to give the downside the benefit of the doubt. Next key resistance is seen at 1.2653/67, which includes the 50% retracement of the 2021 fall and the 55-DMA.” 

“We stay biased directly lower whilst below 1.2653/67, with a break below 1.2565 needed to reassert the downtrend for a move back to 1.2537/35 initially and then to 1.2481/79. Thereafter, a break below the YTD low at 1.2427/00 would trigger a move to our core objective at 1.2287, which is the October 2021 low.” 

A break above the 55-DMA at 1.2667 would reassert the rangebound environment and likely trigger further short-term strength, with next resistance at 1.2712.”

Oil prices edge higher with falling supplies in focus

Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday after Moscow said that peace talks with Ukraine had hit a dead end, fuelling supply worries, while weak economic data from China and Japan kept a lid on gains.

Brent crude rose by 48 cents, or 0.5%, to $105.12 a barrel by 0808 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $100.88. Both benchmarks had surged by more than 6% on Tuesday.

"The downside for oil prices is limited," said OANDA senior market analyst Jeffrey Halley, citing the Russian comments on peace talks and U.S. President Joe Biden accusing Russia of genocide. These "are reinforcing that the Ukraine-Russia situation will not be de-escalating any time soon".

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday blamed Ukraine for derailing peace talks and said Moscow would not let up on what it calls a "special operation" to disarm its neighbour.

Crude futures are also drawing support from Russian oil and gas condensate production falling to below 10 million barrels per day (bpd) on Monday, its lowest since July 2020.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday said it expected Russian oil output losses to average 1.5 million bpd in April, with losses growing to close to 3 million bpd from May.

Western sanctions against Russia and logistical constraints have hampered trade, people familiar with the data said on Tuesday.

OPEC has warned that it would be impossible to replace potential supply losses from Russia and signalled that it would not pump more crude.

Reports this week of partial easing of some of China's tight COVID-19 lockdown measures also underpinned oil prices.

Price gains, however, were kept in check by weak data from China and Japan.

China's crude oil imports slipped 14% from a year earlier, extending a two-month slide, as strict coronavirus restrictions hit demand in the world's top crude importer.

Japan reported its biggest monthly fall in core machinery orders in nearly two years, dragged down by a steep drop in demand from IT and other service companies.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday cut its forecast for 2022 global oil demand growth, citing the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation as crude prices soar and the resurgence of the Omicron coronavirus variant in China.

OPEC now expects global demand to grow by 3.67 million bpd in 2022, down 480,000 bpd from its previous forecast.

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GBP/USD supported above 1.3000 ahead of key US CPI release

GBP/USD continues to trade support to the north of the 1.3000 level in the run-up to the release of key US March Consumer Price Inflation data at 1330BST. Mixed UK jobs data released earlier in the session didn’t give cable traders much to go off of, hence the indecisive trading conditions that have prevailed thus far this session.

On the one hand, the UK jobless rate fell to a fresh post-pandemic low of 3.8% as expected in February, taking it even further below its pre-Covid levels. On the other hand, British earnings growth, when adjusted for inflation, slumped the most since 2013, highlighting the cost-of-living crisis faced in the UK even before the start of the Russo-Ukraine war and tax/energy price hikes as of Q2.

According to ING, "for the time being, this kind of data can probably support market expectations of a Bank of England Bank Rate above 2.00% by year-end (versus 0.75% currently)”. But the bank cautioned that any sterling strength as a result of BoE tightening expectations would likely play out versus the euro or yen, not the US dollar.

Indeed, the US dollar continues to trade on the front foot on Tuesday ahead of the release of US CPI data that should further reinforce expectations for Fed tightening. The DXY currently trades above 100 and just below its highest levels since May 2020 and more gains may be in store if the recent trend of higher US yields and lower US (and global) equities continues. ING think that in a continued strong dollar environment, GBP/USD is at risk of slipping towards 1.2850.

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 Euro gains respite from Macron's French election lead

The euro looked set to snap a seven-day losing streak versus the dollar on Monday, as the single currency rallied after French leader Emmanuel Macron beat far right challenger Marine Le Pen in the country's first round of presidential voting.

Investor concerns about the future direction of the euro zone's second-biggest economy have weighed on the euro and added to worries over the economic costs of war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the dollar has been pushed higher by rising U.S. yields and expectations the Federal Reserve will act quickly to stem inflation. One of the big fallers has been the Japanese yen, which fell to a fresh seven-year low versus the dollar.

Macron will face Le Pen in what promises to be a tightly fought French presidential election runoff on April 24.

Nonetheless, Macron's lead in the first round provided some respite for the euro - lifting it by as much as three quarters of a percent in Asian trading hours to $1.0955. It was last up 0.3% at $1.09080.

Currency analysts said the contest remained on a knife-edge with negative implications for the euro.

"The narrower than expected victory for President Macron will keep alive fears that there is an outside chance that Le Pen can become president," analysts at MUFG said in a note.

"The first-round results and the opinion polls pointing towards a close result in the second round will remain a modest weight on the euro in the coming weeks."

The dollar index - which tracks the greenback against a basket of six peers - was broadly flat on the day, just shy of the 100 mark hit last week for the first time in nearly two years.

As the dollar has gained ground, investors have seen little reason to exit bets against the yen while the Bank of Japan holds yields near zero.

The yen fell as much as 1% on the day to 125.55 yen per dollar, its lowest level since 2015.

"There's nothing there to frighten people out of dollar/yen positions," said National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY)'s head of foreign exchange Ray Attrill. "So onwards and upwards for dollar/yen."

Sterling was broadly flat versus the dollar at $1.30380.

The Russian rouble weakened in jittery trade, reversing some of the previous week's gains, after the central bank decided to relax temporary capital control measures.

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