Thursday 16 September 2021

EUR/USD trades below 1.18 with ECB's Lagarde & US data in focus. Gold looks to US retail sales for direction.

EUR/USD trades below 1.18, Lagarde & US data in focus
The EUR/USD is edging lower paring mild gains from the previous session. 
The Euro has failed to meaningfully capitalize on weaker than forecast US CPI data earlier in the week. Instead concerns over the rising energy prices in Europe and the German elections ae weighing on the Euro. 
The Fed taper question remains. Retail sales will be in focus. Expectations are that rising prices and weaker consumer confidence could mean another monthly decline in sales of -0.8%.  
Meanwhile jobless claims are expected to tick up slightly to 328k, from 310k. The Euro benefited from a more hawkish stance from several policy makers on Wednesday. Investors willlook to a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde to see if a similarly hawkish tone is replicated. 

Gold looks to retail sales 

Whilst Gold rebounded following the softer CPI report the spike higher was short lived. The softer than expected CPI report supports the view that inflation could be transitory. However, inflation hasn’t weakened sufficiently to fundamentally change the Fed’s position. 
Tapering of bond purchases is still on the cards. The question is when not if. Today’s retail sales data and jobless claims numbers will be watched closely as investors eye macro data for fresh impetus.  

Retail sales are expected to decline -0.8%. A loss in momentum in the economic recovery could push back expectations of the Fed tapering sooner rather than later which could boost gold prices. 




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