Gold has resisted higher real rates, strong dollar and fund outflows, but remains vulnerable, in the view of strategists at Société Générale.
Gold has outperformed treasuries and TIPS so far this year
“In the past, we have observed that gold seems to correlate well with three factors – US real rates, the dollar and ETF flows (regression r-squared of almost 95%). However, the price of gold has remained quite elevated compared to the theoretical value yielded by our models.”
“If real rates remain elevated for the foreseeable future, one of the assets that could come under pressure is gold.”
“Gold has outperformed treasuries and TIPS so far this year, but may not be able to resist the high yield for much longer if there is no pivot in the near-term from the Fed.”
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