① Interest rate level: keeping the cash rate unchanged at 0.1% and maintaining the 3-year bond yield target of 0.1%; The actual inflation rate will not increase until the real inflation rate remains within the target range of 2-3%.
② Monetary Policy: Committed to maintaining highly accommodative monetary conditions, continuing to buy government bonds at A$5 billion a week until early September, and then $4 billion Australia a week, at least until mid-November
③ Interest rate hike expectations: Interest rate hike conditions will not be met before 2024
④ GDP Expectations: GDP will contract in Q9, with a slightly more than 4% growth in 2022 and around 2.5% growth in 2023.
⑤ Inflation expectations: inflation rate in 2022 will be 1.75%, in 2023 it will be 2.25%
⑥ Expected unemployment rate: Will fall to around 4.25% by the end of 2022 and around 4% by the end of 2023
Market Analysis: With the release of the latest New Zealand jobs report -The data is very positive. The market for bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike has increased. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise interest rates to 1% before the end of the year.
After the data was released the NZD was supported to increase.
After New Zealand's July jobs data performed better than expected, analysts from various investment banking institutions in Australia and New Zealand have now agreed that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise interest rates. 25 basis points at its next policy meeting on August 18. It is certain, and the respective analyst also believes that it does not mean that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise interest rates once and for all. again in November and December, so the benchmark interest rate will increase to 1% at the end of the year.
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